应用 · economics

With the popularity of location-based services, human mobility prediction plays a key role in enhancing personalized navigation, optimizing recommendation systems, and facilitating urban mobility and planning. This involves predicting a user's next POI (point-of-interest) visit using their past visit history. However, the uneven distribution of visitations over time and space, namely the long-tail problem in spatial distribution, makes it difficult for AI models to predict those POIs that are less visited by humans. In light of this issue, we propose the $\underline{\bf{Lo}}$ng-$\underline{\bf{T}}$ail Adjusted $\underline{\bf{Next}}$ POI Prediction (LoTNext) framework for mobility prediction, combining a Long-Tailed Graph Adjustment module to reduce the impact of the long-tailed nodes in the user-POI interaction graph and a novel Long-Tailed Loss Adjustment module to adjust loss by logit score and sample weight adjustment strategy. Also, we employ the auxiliary prediction task to enhance generalization and accuracy. Our experiments with two real-world trajectory datasets demonstrate that LoTNext significantly surpasses existing state-of-the-art works.

Graphs data is crucial for many applications, and much of it exists in the relations described in textual format. As a result, being able to accurately recall and encode a graph described in earlier text is a basic yet pivotal ability that LLMs need to demonstrate if they are to perform reasoning tasks that involve graph-structured information. Human performance at graph recall by has been studied by cognitive scientists for decades, and has been found to often exhibit certain structural patterns of bias that align with human handling of social relationships. To date, however, we know little about how LLMs behave in analogous graph recall tasks: do their recalled graphs also exhibit certain biased patterns, and if so, how do they compare with humans and affect other graph reasoning tasks? In this work, we perform the first systematical study of graph recall by LLMs, investigating the accuracy and biased microstructures (local structural patterns) in their recall. We find that LLMs not only underperform often in graph recall, but also tend to favor more triangles and alternating 2-paths. Moreover, we find that more advanced LLMs have a striking dependence on the domain that a real-world graph comes from --- by yielding the best recall accuracy when the graph is narrated in a language style consistent with its original domain.

It is largely agreed that social network links are formed due to either homophily or social influence. Inspired by this, we aim at understanding the generation of links via providing a novel embedding-based graph formation model. Different from existing graph representation learning, where link generation probabilities are defined as a simple function of the corresponding node embeddings, we model the link generation as a mixture model of the two factors. In addition, we model the homophily factor in spherical space and the influence factor in hyperbolic space to accommodate the fact that (1) homophily results in cycles and (2) influence results in hierarchies in networks. We also design a special projection to align these two spaces. We call this model Non-Euclidean Mixture Model, i.e., NMM. We further integrate NMM with our non-Euclidean graph variational autoencoder (VAE) framework, NMM-GNN. NMM-GNN learns embeddings through a unified framework which uses non-Euclidean GNN encoders, non-Euclidean Gaussian priors, a non-Euclidean decoder, and a novel space unification loss component to unify distinct non-Euclidean geometric spaces. Experiments on public datasets show NMM-GNN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on social network generation and classification tasks, demonstrating its ability to better explain how the social network is formed.

Large Language Model Multi-Agent Systems (LLM-MAS) have greatly progressed in solving complex tasks. It communicates among agents within the system to collaboratively solve tasks, under the premise of shared information. However, when agents' collaborations are leveraged to perform multi-person tasks, a new challenge arises due to information asymmetry, since each agent can only access the information of its human user. Previous MAS struggle to complete tasks under this condition. To address this, we propose a new MAS paradigm termed iAgents, which denotes Informative Multi-Agent Systems. In iAgents, the human social network is mirrored in the agent network, where agents proactively exchange human information necessary for task resolution, thereby overcoming information asymmetry. iAgents employs a novel agent reasoning mechanism, InfoNav, to navigate agents' communication towards effective information exchange. Together with InfoNav, iAgents organizes human information in a mixed memory to provide agents with accurate and comprehensive information for exchange. Additionally, we introduce InformativeBench, the first benchmark tailored for evaluating LLM agents' task-solving ability under information asymmetry. Experimental results show that iAgents can collaborate within a social network of 140 individuals and 588 relationships, autonomously communicate over 30 turns, and retrieve information from nearly 70,000 messages to complete tasks within 3 minutes.

The power of digital platforms is at the center of major ongoing policy and regulatory efforts. To advance existing debates, we designed and executed an experiment to measure the performative power of online search providers. Instantiated in our setting, performative power quantifies the ability of a search engine to steer web traffic by rearranging results. To operationalize this definition we developed a browser extension that performs unassuming randomized experiments in the background. These randomized experiments emulate updates to the search algorithm and identify the causal effect of different content arrangements on clicks. Analyzing tens of thousands of clicks, we discuss what our robust quantitative findings say about the power of online search engines, using the Google Shopping antitrust investigation as a case study. More broadly, we envision our work to serve as a blueprint for how the recent definition of performative power can help integrate quantitative insights from online experiments with future investigations into the economic power of digital platforms.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are proliferating as decision-making tools across policy areas in transportation, economics, and epidemiology. In these models, a central object of interest is the discrete origin-destination matrix which captures spatial interactions and agent trip counts between locations. Existing approaches resort to continuous approximations of this matrix and subsequent ad-hoc discretisations in order to perform ABM simulation and calibration. This impedes conditioning on partially observed summary statistics, fails to explore the multimodal matrix distribution over a discrete combinatorial support, and incurs discretisation errors. To address these challenges, we introduce a computationally efficient framework that scales linearly with the number of origin-destination pairs, operates directly on the discrete combinatorial space, and learns the agents' trip intensity through a neural differential equation that embeds spatial interactions. Our approach outperforms the prior art in terms of reconstruction error and ground truth matrix coverage, at a fraction of the computational cost. We demonstrate these benefits in two large-scale spatial mobility ABMs in Washington, DC and Cambridge, UK.

Link prediction is a critical problem in graph learning with broad applications such as recommender systems and knowledge graph completion. Numerous research efforts have been directed at solving this problem, including approaches based on similarity metrics and Graph Neural Networks (GNN). However, most existing solutions are still rooted in conventional supervised learning, which makes it challenging to adapt over time to changing customer interests and to address the inherent dilemma of exploitation versus exploration in link prediction. To tackle these challenges, this paper reformulates link prediction as a sequential decision-making process, where each link prediction interaction occurs sequentially. We propose a novel fusion algorithm, PRB (PageRank Bandits), which is the first to combine contextual bandits with PageRank for collaborative exploitation and exploration. We also introduce a new reward formulation and provide a theoretical performance guarantee for PRB. Finally, we extensively evaluate PRB in both online and offline settings, comparing it with bandit-based and graph-based methods. The empirical success of PRB demonstrates the value of the proposed fusion approach. Our code is released at https://github.com/jiaruzouu/PRB.

Large-scale simulation models of complex socio-technical systems provide decision-makers with high-fidelity testbeds in which policy interventions can be evaluated and _what-if_ scenarios explored. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of such models inhibits their widespread use in policy-making settings. Surrogate models can address these computational limitations, but to do so they must behave consistently with the simulator under interventions of interest. In this paper, we build upon recent developments in causal abstractions to develop a framework for learning interventionally consistent surrogate models for large-scale, complex simulation models. We provide theoretical results showing that our proposed approach induces surrogates to behave consistently with high probability with respect to the simulator across interventions of interest, facilitating rapid experimentation with policy interventions in complex systems. We further demonstrate with empirical studies that conventionally trained surrogates can misjudge the effect of interventions and misguide decision-makers towards suboptimal interventions, while surrogates trained for _interventional_ consistency with our method closely mimic the behaviour of the original simulator under interventions of interest.

We develop a novel measurement framework based on Gaussian process coregionalization model to address a long-lasting debate in psychometrics: whether psychological features like personality share a common structure across the population or vary uniquely for individuals. We propose idiographic personality Gaussian process (IPGP), an intermediate model that accommodates both shared trait structure across individuals and "idiographic" deviations. IPGP leverages the Gaussian process coregionalization model to conceptualize responses of grouped survey batteries but adjusted to non-Gaussian ordinal data, and exploits stochastic variational inference for latent factor estimation. Using both synthetic data and a novel survey, we show that IPGP improves both prediction of actual responses and estimation of intrapersonal response patterns compared to existing benchmarks. In the survey study, IPGP also identifies unique clusters of personality taxonomies, displaying great potential in advancing individualized approaches to psychological diagnosis.

As generative large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT gain widespread adoption in various domains, their potential to propagate and amplify social biases, particularly in high-stakes areas such as the labor market, has become a pressing concern. AI algorithms are not only widely used in the selection of job applicants, individual job seekers may also make use of generative LLMs to help develop their job application materials. Against this backdrop, this research builds on a novel experimental design to examine social biases within ChatGPT-generated job applications in response to real job advertisements. By simulating the process of job application creation, we examine the language patterns and biases that emerge when the model is prompted with diverse job postings. Notably, we present a novel bias evaluation framework based on Masked Language Models to quantitatively assess social bias based on validated inventories of social cues/words, enabling a systematic analysis of the language used. Our findings show that the increasing adoption of generative AI, not only by employers but also increasingly by individual job seekers, can reinforce and exacerbate gender and social inequalities in the labor market through the use of biased and gendered language.

In this study, we investigate the under-explored intervention planning aimed at disseminating accurate information within dynamic opinion networks by leveraging learning strategies. Intervention planning involves identifying key nodes (search) and exerting control (e.g., disseminating accurate/official information through the nodes) to mitigate the influence of misinformation. However, as the network size increases, the problem becomes computationally intractable. To address this, we first introduce a ranking algorithm to identify key nodes for disseminating accurate information, which facilitates the training of neural network (NN) classifiers that provide generalized solutions for the search and planning problems. Second, we mitigate the complexity of label generation—which becomes challenging as the network grows—by developing a reinforcement learning (RL)-based centralized dynamic planning framework. We analyze these NN-based planners for opinion networks governed by two dynamic propagation models. Each model incorporates both binary and continuous opinion and trust representations. Our experimental results demonstrate that the ranking algorithm-based classifiers provide plans that enhance infection rate control, especially with increased action budgets for small networks. Further, we observe that the reward strategies focusing on key metrics, such as the number of susceptible nodes and infection rates, outperform those prioritizing faster blocking strategies. Additionally, our findings reveal that graph convolutional network (GCN)-based planners facilitate scalable centralized plans that achieve lower infection rates (higher control) across various network configurations (e.g., Watts-Strogatz topology, varying action budgets, varying initial infected nodes, and varying degree of infected nodes).

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters and, in a certain relaxed setting, surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecasts the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents have been increasingly adopted as simulation tools to model humans in social science and role-playing applications. However, one fundamental question remains: can LLM agents really simulate human behavior? In this paper, we focus on one critical and elemental behavior in human interactions, trust, and investigate whether LLM agents can simulate human trust behavior. We first find that LLM agents generally exhibit trust behavior, referred to as agent trust, under the framework of Trust Games, which are widely recognized in behavioral economics. Then, we discover that GPT-4 agents manifest high behavioral alignment with humans in terms of trust behavior, indicating the feasibility of simulating human trust behavior with LLM agents. In addition, we probe the biases of agent trust and differences in agent trust towards other LLM agents and humans. We also explore the intrinsic properties of agent trust under conditions including external manipulations and advanced reasoning strategies. Our study provides new insights into the behaviors of LLM agents and the fundamental analogy between LLMs and humans beyond value alignment. We further illustrate broader implications of our discoveries for applications where trust is paramount.

We consider the problem of recovering the ground truth ordering (ranking, top-$k$, or others) over a large number of alternatives. The wisdom of crowd is a heuristic approach based on Condorcet's Jury theorem to address this problem through collective opinions. This approach fails to recover the ground truth when the majority of the crowd is misinformed. The \emph{surprisingly popular} (SP) algorithm~\citep{prelec2017solution} is an alternative approach that is able to recover the ground truth even when experts are in minority. The SP algorithm requires the voters to predict other voters' report in the form of a full probability distribution over all rankings of alternatives. However, when the number of alternatives, $m$, is large, eliciting the prediction report or even the vote over $m$ alternatives might be too costly. In this paper, we design a scalable alternative of the SP algorithm which only requires eliciting partial preferences from the voters, and propose new variants of the SP algorithm. In particular, we propose two versions---\emph{Aggregated-SP} and \emph{Partial-SP}---that ask voters to report vote and prediction on a subset of size $k$ ($\ll m$) in terms of top alternative, partial rank, or an approval set. Through a large-scale crowdsourcing experiment on MTurk, we show that both of our approaches outperform conventional preference aggregation algorithms for the recovery of ground truth rankings, when measured in terms of Kendall-Tau distance and Spearman's $\rho$. We further analyze the collected data and demonstrate that voters' behavior in the experiment, including the minority of the experts, and the SP phenomenon, can be correctly simulated by a concentric mixtures of Mallows model. Finally, we provide theoretical bounds on the sample complexity of SP algorithms with partial rankings to demonstrate the theoretical guarantees of the proposed methods.

Intent learning, which aims to learn users' intents for user understanding and item recommendation, has become a hot research spot in recent years. However, existing methods suffer from complex and cumbersome alternating optimization, limiting performance and scalability. To this end, we propose a novel intent learning method termed \underline{ELCRec}, by unifying behavior representation learning into an \underline{E}nd-to-end \underline{L}earnable \underline{C}lustering framework, for effective and efficient \underline{Rec}ommendation. Concretely, we encode user behavior sequences and initialize the cluster centers (latent intents) as learnable neurons. Then, we design a novel learnable clustering module to separate different cluster centers, thus decoupling users' complex intents. Meanwhile, it guides the network to learn intents from behaviors by forcing behavior embeddings close to cluster centers. This allows simultaneous optimization of recommendation and clustering via mini-batch data. Moreover, we propose intent-assisted contrastive learning by using cluster centers as self-supervision signals, further enhancing mutual promotion. Both experimental results and theoretical analyses demonstrate the superiority of ELCRec from six perspectives. Compared to the runner-up, ELCRec improves NDCG@5 by 8.9\% and reduces computational costs by 22.5\% on the Beauty dataset. Furthermore, due to the scalability and universal applicability, we deploy this method on the industrial recommendation system with 130 million page views and achieve promising results. The codes are available on GitHub\footnote{https://github.com/yueliu1999/ELCRec}. A collection (papers, codes, datasets) of deep group recommendation/intent learning methods is available on GitHub\footnote{https://github.com/yueliu1999/Awesome-Deep-Group-Recommendation}.

Diplomacy is one of the most sophisticated activities in human society, involving complex interactions among multiple parties that require skills in social reasoning, negotiation, and long-term strategic planning. Previous AI agents have demonstrated their ability to handle multi-step games and large action spaces in multi-agent tasks. However, diplomacy involves a staggering magnitude of decision spaces, especially considering the negotiation stage required. While recent agents based on large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in various applications, they still struggle with extended planning periods in complex multi-agent settings. Leveraging recent technologies for LLM-based agents, we aim to explore AI's potential to create a human-like agent capable of executing comprehensive multi-agent missions by integrating three fundamental capabilities: 1) strategic planning with memory and reflection; 2) goal-oriented negotiation with social reasoning; and 3) augmenting memory through self-play games for self-evolution without human in the loop. Project page: https://sites.google.com/view/richelieu-diplomacy.

Model heterogeneous federated learning (MHeteroFL) enables FL clients to collaboratively train models with heterogeneous structures in a distributed fashion. However, existing MHeteroFL methods rely on training loss to transfer knowledge between the client model and the server model, resulting in limited knowledge exchange. To address this limitation, we propose the **Fed**erated model heterogeneous **M**atryoshka **R**epresentation **L**earning (**FedMRL**) approach for supervised learning tasks. It adds an auxiliary small homogeneous model shared by clients with heterogeneous local models. (1) The generalized and personalized representations extracted by the two models' feature extractors are fused by a personalized lightweight representation projector. This step enables representation fusion to adapt to local data distribution. (2) The fused representation is then used to construct Matryoshka representations with multi-dimensional and multi-granular embedded representations learned by the global homogeneous model header and the local heterogeneous model header. This step facilitates multi-perspective representation learning and improves model learning capability. Theoretical analysis shows that FedMRL achieves a $O(1/T)$ non-convex convergence rate. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate its superior model accuracy with low communication and computational costs compared to seven state-of-the-art baselines. It achieves up to 8.48% and 24.94% accuracy improvement compared with the state-of-the-art and the best same-category baseline, respectively.

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used in social domains to make consequential decisions about humans, they often have the power to reshape data distributions. Humans, as strategic agents, continuously adapt their behaviors in response to the learning system. As populations change dynamically, ML systems may need frequent updates to ensure high performance. However, acquiring high-quality *human-annotated* samples can be highly challenging and even infeasible in social domains. A common practice to address this issue is using the model itself to annotate unlabeled data samples. This paper investigates the long-term impacts when ML models are retrained with *model-annotated* samples when they incorporate human strategic responses. We first formalize the interactions between strategic agents and the model and then analyze how they evolve under such dynamic interactions. We find that agents are increasingly likely to receive positive decisions as the model gets retrained, whereas the proportion of agents with positive labels may decrease over time. We thus propose a *refined retraining process* to stabilize the dynamics. Last, we examine how algorithmic fairness can be affected by these retraining processes and find that enforcing common fairness constraints at every round may not benefit the disadvantaged group in the long run. Experiments on (semi-)synthetic and real data validate the theoretical findings.

This paper introduces a novel approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) integrated into an agent framework for flexible and effective personal mobility generation. LLMs overcome the limitations of previous models by effectively processing semantic data and offering versatility in modeling various tasks. Our approach addresses three research questions: aligning LLMs with real-world urban mobility data, developing reliable activity generation strategies, and exploring LLM applications in urban mobility. The key technical contribution is a novel LLM agent framework that accounts for individual activity patterns and motivations, including a self-consistency approach to align LLMs with real-world activity data and a retrieval-augmented strategy for interpretable activity generation. We evaluate our LLM agent framework and compare it with state-of-the-art personal mobility generation approaches, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach and its potential applications in urban mobility. Overall, this study marks the pioneering work of designing an LLM agent framework for activity generation based on real-world human activity data, offering a promising tool for urban mobility analysis.