处理效应

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no confoundedness assumption fails to hold. The recently proposed proximal causal inference framework shows that proxy variables that abound in real-life scenarios can be leveraged to identify causal effects and therefore facilitate decision-making. Building upon this line of work, we propose a novel optimal individualized treatment regime based on so-called outcome and treatment confounding bridges. We then show that the value function of this new optimal treatment regime is superior to that of existing ones in the literature. Theoretical guarantees, including identification, superiority, excess value bound, and consistency of the estimated regime, are established. Furthermore, we demonstrate the proposed optimal regime via numerical experiments and a real data application.

Deep neural networks are widely known for their remarkable effectiveness across various tasks, with the consensus that deeper networks implicitly learn more complex data representations. This paper shows that sufficiently deep networks trained for supervised image classification split into two distinct parts that contribute to the resulting data representations differently. The initial layers create linearly-separable representations, while the subsequent layers, which we refer to as \textit{the tunnel}, compress these representations and have a minimal impact on the overall performance. We explore the tunnel's behavior through comprehensive empirical studies, highlighting that it emerges early in the training process. Its depth depends on the relation between the network's capacity and task complexity. Furthermore, we show that the tunnel degrades out-of-distribution generalization and discuss its implications for continual learning.

This paper proposes a novel strategy for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect called the Fused and Accurate Shrinkage Tree ($\mathrm{FAST}$). Our approach utilizes both trial and observational data to improve the accuracy and robustness of the estimator. Inspired by the concept of shrinkage estimation in statistics, we develop an optimal weighting scheme and a corresponding estimator that balances the unbiased estimator based on the trial data with the potentially biased estimator based on the observational data. Specifically, combined with tree-based techniques, we introduce a new split criterion that utilizes both trial data and observational data to more accurately estimate the treatment effect. Furthermore, we confirm the consistency of our proposed tree-based estimator and demonstrate the effectiveness of our criterion in reducing prediction error through theoretical analysis. The advantageous finite sample performance of the $\mathrm{FAST}$ and its ensemble version over existing methods is demonstrated via simulations and real data analysis.

In this paper, we propose a novel data-pruning approach called moving-one-sample-out (MoSo), which aims to identify and remove the least informative samples from the training set. The core insight behind MoSo is to determine the importance of each sample by assessing its impact on the optimal empirical risk. This is achieved by measuring the extent to which the empirical risk changes when a particular sample is excluded from the training set. Instead of using the computationally expensive leaving-one-out-retraining procedure, we propose an efficient first-order approximator that only requires gradient information from different training stages. The key idea behind our approximation is that samples with gradients that are consistently aligned with the average gradient of the training set are more informative and should receive higher scores, which could be intuitively understood as follows: if the gradient from a specific sample is consistent with the average gradient vector, it implies that optimizing the network using the sample will yield a similar effect on all remaining samples. Experimental results demonstrate that MoSo effectively mitigates severe performance degradation at high pruning ratios and achieves satisfactory performance across various settings. Experimental results demonstrate that MoSo effectively mitigates severe performance degradation at high pruning ratios and outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin across various settings.

An accurate environment dynamics model is crucial for various downstream tasks in sequential decision-making, such as counterfactual prediction, off-policy evaluation, and offline reinforcement learning. Currently, these models were learned through empirical risk minimization (ERM) by step-wise fitting of historical transition data. This way was previously believed unreliable over long-horizon rollouts because of the compounding errors, which can lead to uncontrollable inaccuracies in predictions. In this paper, we find that the challenge extends beyond just long-term prediction errors: we reveal that even when planning with one step, learned dynamics models can also perform poorly due to the selection bias of behavior policies during data collection. This issue will significantly mislead the policy optimization process even in identifying single-step optimal actions, further leading to a greater risk in sequential decision-making scenarios. To tackle this problem, we introduce a novel model-learning objective called adversarial weighted empirical risk minimization (AWRM). AWRM incorporates an adversarial policy that exploits the model to generate a data distribution that weakens the model's prediction accuracy, and subsequently, the model is learned under this adversarial data distribution. We implement a practical algorithm, GALILEO, for AWRM and evaluate it on two synthetic tasks, three continuous-control tasks, and \textit{a real-world application}. The experiments demonstrate that GALILEO can accurately predict counterfactual actions and improve various downstream tasks, including offline policy evaluation and improvement, as well as online decision-making.

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is currently one of the most used statistical tools to reduce the ambient dimension of the data. From multidimensional scaling to the imputation of missing data, PPCA has a broad spectrum of applications ranging from science and engineering to quantitative finance.\\ Despite this wide applicability in various fields, hardly any theoretical guarantees exist to justify the soundness of the maximal likelihood (ML) solution for this model. In fact, it is well known that the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can only recover the true model parameters up to a rotation. The main obstruction is posed by the inherent identifiability nature of the PPCA model resulting from the rotational symmetry of the parameterization. To resolve this ambiguity, we propose a novel approach using quotient topological spaces and in particular, we show that the maximum likelihood solution is consistent in an appropriate quotient Euclidean space. Furthermore, our consistency results encompass a more general class of estimators beyond the MLE. Strong consistency of the ML estimate and consequently strong covariance estimation of the PPCA model have also been established under a compactness assumption.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Recent years have witnessed a surge of interest in integrating high-dimensional data captured by multisource sensors, driven by the impressive success of neural networks in integrating multimodal data. However, the integration of heterogeneous multimodal data poses a significant challenge, as confounding effects and dependencies among such heterogeneous data sources introduce unwanted variability and bias, leading to suboptimal performance of multimodal models. Therefore, it becomes crucial to normalize the low- or high-level features extracted from data modalities before their fusion takes place. This paper introduces RegBN, a novel approach for multimodal Batch Normalization with REGularization. RegBN uses the Frobenius norm as a regularizer term to address the side effects of confounders and underlying dependencies among different data sources. The proposed method generalizes well across multiple modalities and eliminates the need for learnable parameters, simplifying training and inference. We validate the effectiveness of RegBN on eight databases from five research areas, encompassing diverse modalities such as language, audio, image, video, depth, tabular, and 3D MRI. The proposed method demonstrates broad applicability across different architectures such as multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and vision transformers, enabling effective normalization of both low- and high-level features in multimodal neural networks. RegBN is available at https://mogvision.github.io/RegBN.

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject to ongoing research. So far, works with sharp bounds are restricted to fairly simple settings (e.g., a single binary treatment). In this paper, we propose a unified framework for causal sensitivity analysis under unobserved confounding in various settings. For this, we propose a flexible generalization of the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and then derive sharp bounds for a large class of causal effects. This includes (conditional) average treatment effects, effects for mediation analysis and path analysis, and distributional effects. Furthermore, our sensitivity model is applicable to discrete, continuous, and time-varying treatments. It allows us to interpret the partial identification problem under unobserved confounding as a distribution shift in the latent confounders while evaluating the causal effect of interest. In the special case of a single binary treatment, our bounds for (conditional) average treatment effects coincide with recent optimality results for causal sensitivity analysis. Finally, we propose a scalable algorithm to estimate our sharp bounds from observational data.

Causal effect estimation from data typically requires assumptions about the cause-effect relations either explicitly in the form of a causal graph structure within the Pearlian framework, or implicitly in terms of (conditional) independence statements between counterfactual variables within the potential outcomes framework. When the treatment variable and the outcome variable are confounded, front-door adjustment is an important special case where, given the graph, causal effect of the treatment on the target can be estimated using post-treatment variables. However, the exact formula for front-door adjustment depends on the structure of the graph, which is difficult to learn in practice. In this work, we provide testable conditional independence statements to compute the causal effect using front-door-like adjustment without knowing the graph under limited structural side information. We show that our method is applicable in scenarios where knowing the Markov equivalence class is not sufficient for causal effect estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a class of random graphs as well as real causal fairness benchmarks.

In many classification datasets, the task labels are spuriously correlated with some input attributes. Classifiers trained on such datasets often rely on these attributes for prediction, especially when the spurious correlation is high, and thus fail to generalize whenever there is a shift in the attributes’ correlation at deployment. If we assume that the spurious attributes are known a priori, several methods have been proposed to learn a classifier that is invariant to the specified attributes. However, in real-world data, information about spurious attributes is typically unavailable. Therefore, we propose a method that automatically identifies spurious attributes by estimating their causal effect on the label and then uses a regularization objective to mitigate the classifier’s reliance on them. Although causal effect of an attribute on the label is not always identified, we present two commonly occurring data-generating processes where the effect can be identified. Compared to recent work for identifying spurious attributes, we find that our method, AutoACER, is more accurate in removing the attribute from the learned model, especially when spurious correlation is high. Specifically, across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, AutoACER shows significant improvement in a metric used to quantify the dependence of a classifier on spurious attributes ($\Delta$Prob), while obtaining better or similar accuracy. Empirically we find that AutoACER mitigates the reliance on spurious attributes even under noisy estimation of causal effects or when the causal effect is not identified. To explain the empirical robustness of our method, we create a simple linear classification task with two sets of attributes: causal and spurious. Under this setting, we prove that AutoACER only requires the ranking of estimated causal effects to be correct across attributes to select the correct classifier.

The average treatment effect, which is the difference in expectation of the counterfactuals, is probably the most popular target effect in causal inference with binary treatments. However, treatments may have effects beyond the mean, for instance decreasing or increasing the variance. We propose a new kernel-based test for distributional effects of the treatment. It is, to the best of our knowledge, the first kernel-based, doubly-robust test with provably valid type-I error. Furthermore, our proposed algorithm is computationally efficient, avoiding the use of permutations.

Federated or multi-site studies have distinct advantages over single-site studies, including increased generalizability, the ability to study underrepresented populations, and the opportunity to study rare exposures and outcomes. However, these studies are complicated by the need to preserve the privacy of each individual's data, heterogeneity in their covariate distributions, and different data structures between sites. We propose a novel federated approach to derive valid causal inferences for a target population using multi-site data. We adjust for covariate shift and accommodate covariate mismatch between sites by developing a multiply-robust and privacy-preserving nuisance function estimation approach. Our methodology incorporates transfer learning to estimate ensemble weights to combine information from source sites. We show that these learned weights are efficient and optimal under different scenarios. We showcase the finite sample advantages of our approach in terms of efficiency and robustness compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches. We apply our approach to study the treatment effect of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) on the duration of hospitalization for patients experiencing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with data from the Centers for Medicare \& Medicaid Services (CMS).

Location estimation is one of the most basic questions in parametric statistics. Suppose we have a known distribution density $f$, and we get $n$ i.i.d. samples from $f(x-\mu)$ for some unknown shift $\mu$. The task is to estimate $\mu$ to high accuracy with high probability. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is known to be asymptotically optimal as $n \to \infty$, but what is possible for finite $n$? In this paper, we give two location estimators that are optimal under different criteria: 1) an estimator that has minimax-optimal estimation error subject to succeeding with probability $1-\delta$ and 2) a confidence interval estimator which, subject to its output interval containing $\mu$ with probability at least $1-\delta$, has the minimum expected squared interval width among all shift-invariant estimators. The latter construction can be generalized to minimizing the expectation of any loss function on the interval width.

We investigate the problem of machine learning-based (ML) predictive inference on individual treatment effects (ITEs). Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based “meta-learners” that can provide point estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE)—these are model-agnostic approaches for combining intermediate nuisance estimates to produce estimates of CATE. In this paper, we develop conformal meta-learners, a general framework for issuing predictive intervals for ITEs by applying the standard conformal prediction (CP) procedure on top of CATE meta-learners. We focus on a broad class of meta-learners based on two-stage pseudo-outcome regression and develop a stochastic ordering framework to study their validity. We show that inference with conformal meta-learners is marginally valid if their (pseudo-outcome) conformity scores stochastically dominate “oracle” conformity scores evaluated on the unobserved ITEs. Additionally, we prove that commonly used CATE meta-learners, such as the doubly-robust learner, satisfy a model- and distribution-free stochastic (or convex) dominance condition, making their conformal inferences valid for practically-relevant levels of target coverage. Whereas existing procedures conduct inference on nuisance parameters (i.e., potential outcomes) via weighted CP, conformal meta-learners enable direct inference on the target parameter (ITE). Numerical experiments show that conformal meta-learners provide valid intervals with competitive efficiency while retaining the favorable point estimation properties of CATE meta-learners.

Experimentation has been critical and increasingly popular across various domains, such as clinical trials and online platforms, due to its widely recognized benefits. One of the primary objectives of classical experiments is to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) to inform future decision-making. However, in healthcare and many other settings, treatment effects may be non-stationary, meaning that they can change over time, rendering the traditional experimental design inadequate and the classical static ATE uninformative. In this work, we address the problem of non-stationary experimental design under linear trends by considering two objectives: estimating the dynamic treatment effect and minimizing welfare loss within the experiment. We propose an efficient design that can be customized for optimal estimation error rate, optimal regret rate, or the Pareto optimal trade-off between the two objectives. We establish information-theoretical lower bounds that highlight the inherent challenge in estimating dynamic treatment effects and minimizing welfare loss, and also statistically reveal the fundamental trade-off between them.

A/B testing is critical for modern technological companies to evaluate the effectiveness of newly developed products against standard baselines. This paper studies optimal designs that aim to maximize the amount of information obtained from online experiments to estimate treatment effects accurately. We propose three optimal allocation strategies in a dynamic setting where treatments are sequentially assigned over time. These strategies are designed to minimize the variance of the treatment effect estimator when data follow a non Markov decision process or a (time-varying) Markov decision process. We further develop estimation procedures based on existing off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods and conduct extensive experiments in various environments to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodologies. In theory, we prove the optimality of the proposed treatment allocation design and establish upper bounds for the mean squared errors of the resulting treatment effect estimators.

Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to treatment selection bias. Prevalent methods mainly mitigate this issue by aligning different treatment groups in the latent space, the core of which is the calculation of distribution discrepancy. However, two issues that are often overlooked can render these methods invalid: (1) mini-batch sampling effects (MSE), where the calculated discrepancy is erroneous in non-ideal mini-batches with outcome imbalance and outliers; (2) unobserved confounder effects (UCE), where the unobserved confounders are not considered in the discrepancy calculation. Both of these issues invalidate the calculated discrepancy, mislead the training of estimators, and thus impede the handling of treatment selection bias. To tackle these issues, we propose Entire Space CounterFactual Regression (ESCFR), which is a new take on optimal transport technology in the context of causality. Specifically, based on the canonical optimal transport framework, we propose a relaxed mass-preserving regularizer to address the MSE issue and design a proximal factual outcome regularizer to handle the UCE issue. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ESCFR estimates distribution discrepancy accurately, handles the treatment selection bias effectively, and outperforms prevalent competitors significantly.

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator or negative outcome control) have been proposed in this setting in the literature. However, these approaches require either restrictive assumptions on the data generating model or having access to at least two proxy variables. We propose a method to estimate the causal effect using cross moments between the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy variable. In particular, we show that the causal effect can be identified with simple arithmetic operations on the cross moments if the latent confounder in linear SCM is non-Gaussian. In this setting, DiD estimator provides an unbiased estimate only in the special case where the latent confounder has exactly the same direct causal effects on the outcomes in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases. This translates to the common trend assumption in DiD, which we effectively relax. Additionally, we provide an impossibility result that shows the causal effect cannot be identified if the observational distribution over the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy is jointly Gaussian. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the effectiveness of the proposed approach in estimating the causal effect.

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate the temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yutong-xia/CaST.