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Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting
Zheng He, Danica J. Sutherland, Danica J. Sutherland
Testing conditional independence is fundamental yet intrinsically difficult: without additional assumptions, Type I error control is impossible in general. The ``Model-X'' paradigm addresses this difficulty by assuming exact knowledge of a relevant conditional distribution. While small deviations from this assumption can sometimes be tolerated in classical one-shot testing, existing sequential conditional independence tests typically require the Model-X conditional to be known exactly, making them fragile when it must instead be estimated. We propose a new approach that is substantially more robust to such estimation error. Our method applies testing-by-betting to an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, together with a normalization scheme and a truncate-and-shift calibration strategy. These modifications greatly reduce Type I error inflation while preserving high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks, outperforming existing sequential Model-X approaches. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/he-zh/SKCI}.
Preserving Plasticity in Continual Learning via Dynamical Isometry
Andries Rosseau, Robert Müller, Ann Nowe
Continual training of deep neural networks under non-stationarity often leads to a progressive loss of plasticity, eventually limiting further learning. We relate plasticity to the empirical Neural Tangent Kernel, and identify dynamical isometry (the condition that layer-wise Jacobian singular values remain close to one) as a key mechanism for preserving plasticity in continual learning. We revisit a class of networks that are almost-everywhere isometric while remaining universal Lipschitz function approximators, demonstrating that near-dynamical isometry is compatible with expressive nonlinear representations. For general architectures, we propose an efficient isometry-promoting regularization scheme and identify a novel mechanism by which it can reactivate dormant ReLU units. Building on this, we introduce AdamO, an Adam-style adaptive optimizer that decouples isometry regularization from gradient updates, analogous to AdamW. We further reinterpret prior plasticity-preserving approaches through the lens of dynamical isometry, showing that they target only a partial measure of isometry. Across supervised and reinforcement-learning continual-learning benchmarks designed to induce plasticity loss, our methods consistently match or outperform existing approaches.
Even Faster Kernel Matrix Linear Algebra via Density Estimation
Rikhav Shah, Sandeep Silwal, Haike Xu
This paper studies the use of *kernel density estimation* (KDE) for linear algebraic tasks involving the *kernel matrix* of a collection of $n$ data points in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In particular, we improve upon the best existing algorithms for computing the following up to $(1+\varepsilon)$ relative error for a Gaussian kernel matrix and other kernels: matrix-vector products, matrix-matrix products, the spectral norm, and sum of all entries. The runtimes of our algorithms depend linearly on the dimension $d$, sub-quadratically in the number of points $n$, and polynomially on the target error $\varepsilon$. Importantly, the dependence on $n$ in each case is far lower when accessing the kernel matrix through KDE queries as opposed to reading individual entries. Our improvements over existing best algorithms (particularly those of [Backurs et al. ICML `21]) for these tasks reduce the polynomial dependence on $\varepsilon$, and additionally decrease the dependence on $n$ in the case of computing the sum of all entries of the kernel matrix. For example, we reduce the power of $1/\epsilon$ from $\approx 7.7$ to $\approx 3.2$ for a $1-\varepsilon$ relative error estimation of the spectral norm of a Gaussian kernel matrix. We complement our upper bounds with several lower bounds for related problems, which provide (conditional) quadratic time hardness results and additionally hint at the limits of KDE based approaches for the problems we study.
Feasible Fusion: Constrained Joint Estimation under Structural Non-Overlap
Yuxi Du, Zhiheng Zhang, Haoxuan Li, Cong Fang, Jixing Xu, Zhen Peng, Jiecheng Guo
Causal inference in modern large-scale systems faces growing challenges, including high-dimensional covariates, multi-valued treatments, massive observational (OBS) data, and limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) samples due to cost constraints. We formalize treatment-induced structural non-overlap and show that, under this regime, commonly used weighted fusion methods provably fail to satisfy randomized identifying restrictions.To address this issue,we propose a constrained joint estimation framework that minimizes observational risk while enforcing causal validity through orthogonal experimental moment conditions. We further show that structural non-overlap creates a feasibility obstruction for moment enforcement in the original covariate space.We also derive a penalized primal–dual algorithm that jointly learns representations and predictors, and establish oracle inequalities decomposing error into overlap recovery, moment violation, and statistical terms.Extensive synthetic experiments demonstrate robust performance under varying degrees of non-overlap. A large-scale ride-hailing application shows that our method achieves substantial gains over existing baselines, matching the performance of models trained with significantly more RCT data.
Diversity-Aware Recursive Feature Multiple Kernel Learning
Nan Cao, Xu Zhao, Teng Zhang
\textit{\underline{M}ultiple \underline{k}ernel \underline{l}earning}~(MKL) combines several base kernels in the spirit of ensemble learning, yet existing methods rarely model kernel diversity---a known cornerstone of ensembles---and most traditional kernels weight all features uniformly, ignoring feature-level discriminability. We address both gaps with DARFMMKL: a data-driven kernel family (Recursive Feature Machine kernels) that learns feature importance directly from data, paired with a kernel selection method that jointly optimizes diversity and quality. The resulting NP-hard binary quadratic program is reformulated via Glover linearization and continuous relaxation into a linear program, and accelerated by Nystr\"om sketching, yielding a selector whose cost is decoupled from the sample size. We provide a covering-number generalization bound that explicitly relates kernel diversity to estimation error. Experiments on 12 benchmark datasets show that DARFMMKL consistently outperforms 9 state-of-the-art MKL methods.
Are Two Datasets Close Enough With Statistical Significance? A Kernel Distributional Closeness Testing Approach
Zhijian Zhou, Liuhua Peng, Xunye Tian, Mingming Gong, Feng Liu
Are two distributions close to each other with statistical significance? *Distribution closeness testing* (DCT) formalizes this question by testing whether the distance between a distribution pair is at least $\epsilon$-far. Existing DCT methods mainly measure discrepancies between a distribution pair defined on discrete spaces (e.g., using total variation), which limits their applications to complex data (e.g., images). To extend DCT to more types of data, a natural idea is to introduce *maximum mean discrepancy* (MMD), a powerful measurement of the distributional discrepancy between two complex distributions, into DCT scenarios. However, the empirical results indicate that many distribution pairs can have the same MMD value despite having different norms in the same *reproducing kernel Hilbert space* (RKHS), and these pairs may exhibit different finite-sample distinguishability and reflect different practical closeness levels, making MMD less informative in DCT. To mitigate the issue, we design a new measurement of distributional discrepancy, *norm-adaptive MMD* (NAMMD), which scales MMD's value using the RKHS norms of distributions. Based on the asymptotic distribution of NAMMD, we finally propose the NAMMD-based DCT to assess the closeness level of a distribution pair. Theoretically, we prove that NAMMD-based DCT has higher test power compared to MMD-based DCT, with bounded type-I error, which is also validated by extensive experiments on many types of data (e.g., synthetic noise, real images). Our code is available at: https://github.com/zhijianzhouml/NAMMD.
Asymmetric conformal prediction with penalized kernel sum-of-squares
Louis Allain, Sébastien Da Veiga, Brian Staber
Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature which has been overlooked in previous research is the potential skewed nature of the noise, or of the residuals when the predictive model exhibits bias. In this work, we leverage recent developments in CP to propose a new asymmetric procedure that bridges the gap between skewed and non-skewed noise distributions, while still maintaining adaptivity of the prediction intervals. We introduce a new statistical learning problem to construct adaptive and asymmetric prediction bands, with a unique feature based on a penalty which promotes symmetry: when the penalty intensity varies, the intervals smoothly change from symmetric to asymmetric ones. This statistical learning problem is based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and the recently introduced kernel sum-of-squares framework. First, we establish representer theorems to make our problem tractable in practice, and derive dual formulations which are essential for scalability to larger datasets. Second, the intensity of the penalty is chosen using a novel data-driven method which automatically identifies the symmetric nature of the noise. We show that consenting to some asymmetry can let the learned prediction bands better adapt to small sample regimes, outliers or biased predictive models. Finally, our experiments illustrate the efficiency of such penalized kernel sum-of-squares to construct adaptive prediction bands.
Model Fusion via Retrofitting
Phoomraphee Luenam, Andreas Spanopoulos, Amit Sant, Sotiris Anagnostidis, Thomas Hofmann, Sidak Pal Singh
Model fusion seeks to combine independently trained neural networks into a single model without retraining, but is complicated by representational divergence arising from permutation invariance, random initialization, and heterogeneous training data. Existing methods struggle particularly in zero-shot settings under non-IID data distributions, and are often limited to specific architectures or pairwise fusion. We introduce a neuron-centric family of fusion algorithms that frames fusion as a principled representation-matching problem: intermediate neurons across parent models are grouped into target representations, which the fused model's corresponding sub-networks are then trained to approximate. Unlike prior work, our approach incorporates neuron attribution scores to bias alignment toward salient features, and can be applied to any architecture modularizable as a DAG of levels—empirically validated on VGGs, ResNets, and ViTs. Experiments across standard benchmarks show consistent improvements over existing fusion methods, with the largest gains in zero-shot and non-IID scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/AndrewSpano/model-fusion-via-retrofitting}{https://github.com/AndrewSpano/model-fusion-via-retrofitting.
Finite-Width Neural Tangent Kernels from Feynman Diagrams
Max Guillen, Philipp Misof, Jan E Gerken
Neural tangent kernels (NTKs) are a powerful tool for analyzing deep, non-linear neural networks. In the infinite-width limit, NTKs can easily be computed for most common architectures, yielding full analytic control over the training dynamics. However, at infinite width, important properties of training such as NTK evolution or feature learning are absent. Nevertheless, finite width effects can be included by computing corrections to the Gaussian statistics at infinite width. We introduce Feynman diagrams for computing finite-width corrections to NTK statistics. These dramatically simplify the necessary algebraic manipulations and enable the computation of layer-wise recursion relations for arbitrary statistics involving preactivations, NTKs and certain higher-derivative tensors (dNTK and ddNTK) required to predict the training dynamics at leading order. We demonstrate the feasibility of our framework by extending stability results for deep networks from preactivations to NTKs and proving the absence of finite-width corrections for scale-invariant nonlinearities such as ReLU on the diagonal of the Gram matrix of the NTK. We numerically implement the complete set of equations necessary to compute the first-order corrections for arbitrary inputs and demonstrate that the results follow the statistics of sampled neural networks for widths $n\gtrsim 20$.
Dimensionality Reduction with Point-distributions Similarity Invariant
Hang Zhang, Kai Ming Ting
Existing dimensionality reduction methods all perform dimensionality reduction by preserving some invariant in the space before and after dimensionality reduction. This paper proposes a new dimensionality reduction invariant: preserving the invariant of the point-distributions similarity. We also design a linear and efficient method to achieve dimensionality reduction while preserving this invariant. We theoretically prove the feasibility of our method for dimensionality reduction. Furthermore, our results on benchmark datasets and single-cell expression data demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.
UrbanFusion: Stochastic Multimodal Fusion for Contrastive Learning of Robust Spatial Representations
Dominik J. Mühlematter, Lin Che, Ye Hong, Martin Raubal, Nina Wiedemann
Forecasting urban phenomena such as housing prices and public health indicators requires the effective integration of various geospatial data. Current methods primarily utilize task-specific models, while recent generic models for spatial representations often support only limited modalities and lack multimodal fusion capabilities. To overcome these challenges, we present UrbanFusion, a spatial representation model that features Stochastic Multimodal Fusion (SMF). The framework employs modality-specific encoders to process different types of inputs, including street view imagery, remote sensing data, cartographic maps, and points of interest (POIs) data. These multimodal inputs are integrated via a Transformer-based fusion module that learns unified representations. An extensive evaluation across 41 tasks in 56 cities worldwide demonstrates UrbanFusion’s strong generalization and predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art GeoAI models. Specifically, it 1) outperforms prior models on location-encoding, 2) allows multimodal input during inference, and 3) generalizes well to regions unseen during training. UrbanFusion can flexibly utilize any subset of available modalities for a given location during both pretraining and inference, enabling broad applicability across diverse data availability scenarios.
Kernel-based Maximum-of-difference Test for Two-sample Comparison
Dan Pu, Tianyi Zhu, Yao Yan, Wei Lan
Two-sample comparison is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with broad applications such as generative modeling. Although the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is widely used, MMD-based tests often exhibit poor or even counterintuitive performance under covariance- and location-shift alternatives, partly due to cancellation effects induced by their sum-of-differences construction. To address this issue, we propose a kernel-based maximum-of-difference (MOD) test, which maximizes the squared discrepancy between within-sample and between-sample average distances, thereby improving sensitivity to subtle distributional differences. We further develop a fused MOD procedure to adaptively combine multiple kernels. Extensive experiments demonstrate clear performance gains over existing MMD-based methods.
New Bounds for Kernel Sums via Fast Spherical Embeddings
Tal Wagner
We study query time bounds for the fundamental problem of estimating the kernel mean $\frac1{|X|}\sum_{x\in X}\mathbf{\mathrm{k}}(x,y)$ of a query $y$ in a finite dataset $X\subset\mathbb{R}^d$ up to a prescribed additive error $\varepsilon$. The best known bounds for the Gaussian kernel are $O(d/\varepsilon^2)$, $\widetilde O(d+1/\varepsilon^4)$, and $\widetilde O(d+\Delta^2/\varepsilon^2)$, where $\Delta$ is the diameter of a region containing the points. We prove the new bound $\tilde O(d+\varepsilon\Delta^2+1/\varepsilon^3)$, which improves over the previous ones in regimes with small error $\varepsilon$ and intermediate diameter $\Delta$. At the center of our proof is a new fast spherical embedding theorem in the sense introduced by Bartal, Recht and Schulman (2011), which limits the embedded data diameter while preserving local Euclidean distances and avoiding ``distance collapse'' at larger scales. This fast embedding theorem may be of independent interest.