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This paper introduces a novel framework for survival analysis by reinterpreting it as a form of density estimation. Our algorithm post-processes density estimation outputs to derive survival functions, enabling the application of any density estimation model to effectively estimate survival functions. This approach broadens the toolkit for survival analysis and enhances the flexibility and applicability of existing techniques. Our framework is versatile enough to handle various survival analysis scenarios, including competing risk models for multiple event types. It can also address dependent censoring when prior knowledge of the dependency between event time and censoring time is available in the form of a copula. In the absence of such information, our framework can estimate the upper and lower bounds of survival functions, accounting for the associated uncertainty.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing **adapters**—feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, **AdaPTS**, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Sequential recommendation in e-commerce utilizes users' anonymous browsing histories to personalize product suggestions without relying on private information. Existing item ID-based methods and multimodal models often overlook the temporal alignment of modalities like textual descriptions, visual content, and prices in user browsing sequences. To address this limitation, this paper proposes the Multimodal Time-aligned Shared Token Recommender (MTSTRec), a transformer-based framework with a single time-aligned shared token per product for efficient cross-modality fusion. MTSTRec preserves the distinct contributions of each modality while aligning them temporally to better capture user preferences. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MTSTRec achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple sequential recommendation benchmarks, significantly improving upon existing multimodal fusion. Our code is available at https://github.com/idssplab/MTSTRec.

Diffusion models, known for their generative ability, have recently been adapted to time series analysis. Most pioneering works rely on the standard isotropic diffusion, treating each time step and the entire frequency spectrum identically. However, it may not be suitable for time series, which often have more informative low-frequency components. We empirically found that direct application of standard diffusion to time series may cause gradient contradiction during training, due to the rapid decrease of low-frequency information in the diffusion process. To this end, we proposed a novel time series diffusion model, MA-TSD, which utilizes the moving average, a natural low-frequency filter, as the forward transition. Its backward process is accelerable like DDIM and can be further considered a time series super-resolution. Our experiments on various datasets demonstrated MA-TSD's superior performance in time series forecasting and super-resolution tasks.

Pretrained transformers have demonstrated the ability to implement various algorithms at inference time without parameter updates. While theoretical works have established this capability through constructions and approximation guarantees, the optimization and statistical efficiency aspects remain understudied. In this work, we investigate how transformers learn features in-context -- a key mechanism underlying their inference-time adaptivity. We focus on the in-context learning of single-index models $y=\sigma_*(\langle \\boldsymbol{x},\\boldsymbol{\beta}\rangle)$, which are low-dimensional nonlinear functions parameterized by feature vector $\\boldsymbol\beta$. We prove that transformers pretrained by gradient-based optimization can perform *inference-time feature learning*, i.e., extract information of the target features $\\boldsymbol{\beta}$ solely from test prompts (despite $\\boldsymbol {\beta}$ varying across different prompts), hence achieving an in-context statistical efficiency that surpasses any non-adaptive (fixed-basis) algorithms such as kernel methods. Moreover, we show that the inference-time sample complexity surpasses the Correlational Statistical Query (CSQ) lower bound, owing to nonlinear label transformations naturally induced by the Softmax self-attention mechanism.

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for obtaining point estimates from spatiotemporal data and correlated time series. However, the problem of exploiting relational structures to estimate the uncertainty of such predictions has been largely overlooked in the same context. To this end, we propose a novel distribution-free approach based on the conformal prediction framework and quantile regression. Despite the recent applications of conformal prediction to sequential data, existing methods operate independently on each target time series and do not account for relationships among them when constructing the prediction interval. We fill this void by introducing a novel conformal prediction method based on graph deep learning operators. Our approach, named Conformal Relational Prediction (CoRel), does not require the relational structure (graph) to be known a priori and can be applied on top of any pre-trained predictor. Additionally, CoRel includes an adaptive component to handle non-exchangeable data and changes in the input time series. Our approach provides accurate coverage and achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification in relevant benchmarks.

Sampling-based search, a simple paradigm for utilizing test-time compute, involves generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the best one---typically by verifying each response for correctness. In this paper, we study the scaling trends governing sampling-based search. Among our findings is that simply scaling up a minimalist implementation that uses only random sampling and direct self-verification results in sustained performance improvements that, for example, elevate the Gemini v1.5 Pro model's reasoning capabilities past that of o1-Preview on popular benchmarks. We partially attribute the scalability of sampling-based search to a phenomenon of implicit scaling, where sampling a larger pool of responses in turn improves verification accuracy. We further identify two useful principles for improving self-verification capabilities with test-time compute: (1) comparing across responses provides helpful signals about the locations of errors and hallucinations, and (2) different model output styles are useful for different contexts---chains of thought are useful for reasoning but harder to verify. We also find that, though accurate verification can be elicited, frontier models demonstrate remarkably weak out-of-box verification capabilities and introduce a benchmark to measure progress on these deficiencies.

Self-attention performs well in long context but has quadratic complexity. Existing RNN layers have linear complexity, but their performance in long context is limited by the expressive power of their hidden states. We present a practical framework for instantiating sequence modeling layers with linear complexity and expressive hidden states. The key idea is to make the hidden state a machine learning model itself, and the update rule a step of self-supervised learning. Since the hidden state is updated by training even on test sequences, our layers are called Test-Time Training (TTT) layers. We consider two instantiations: TTT-Linear and TTT-MLP, whose hidden state is a linear model and a two-layer MLP respectively. We evaluate our instantiations at the scale of 125M to 1.3B parameters, comparing with a strong Transformer and Mamba, a modern RNN. Similar to Transformer, TTT-Linear and TTT-MLP can keep reducing perplexity by conditioning on more tokens, while Mamba cannot after 16k context. TTT-MLP still faces challenges in memory I/O, but shows larger potential in long context, pointing to a promising direction for future research.

Numerous optimization algorithms have a time-varying update rule thanks to, for instance, a changing step size, momentum parameter or, Hessian approximation. Often, such algorithms are used as solvers for the lower-level problem in bilevel optimization, and are unrolled when computing the gradient of the upper-level objective. In this paper, we apply unrolled or automatic differentiation to a time-varying iterative process and provide convergence (rate) guarantees for the resulting derivative iterates. We then adapt these convergence results and apply them to proximal gradient descent with variable step size and FISTA when solving partly-smooth problems. We test the convergence (rates) of these algorithms numerically through several experiments. Our theoretical and numerical results show that the convergence rate of the algorithm is reflected in its derivative iterates.

Graph Transformers (GTs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in graph representation learning over popular graph neural networks (GNNs). However, self-attention, the core module of GTs, preserves only low-frequency signals in graph features, leading to ineffectiveness in capturing other important signals like high-frequency ones. Some recent GT models help alleviate this issue, but their flexibility and expressiveness are still limited since the filters they learn are fixed on predefined graph spectrum or spectral order. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Graph Fourier Kolmogorov-Arnold Transformer (GrokFormer), a novel GT model that learns highly expressive spectral filters with adaptive graph spectrum and spectral order through a Fourier series modeling over learnable activation functions. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the proposed GrokFormer filter offers better expressiveness than other spectral methods. Comprehensive experiments on 10 real-world node classification datasets across various domains, scales, and graph properties, as well as 5 graph classification datasets, show that GrokFormer outperforms state-of-the-art GTs and GNNs. Our code is available at https://github.com/GGA23/GrokFormer.

Segmented regression is a statistical method that approximates a function $f$ by a piecewise function $\hat{f}$ using noisy data samples. *Min-$\epsilon$* approaches aim to reduce the regression function's mean squared error (MSE) for a given number of $k$ segments. An optimal solution for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression is found in $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ time (Bai & Perron, 1998; Yamamoto & Perron, 2013) for $n$ samples. For large datasets, current heuristics improve time complexity to $\mathcal{O}(n\log{n})$ (Acharya et al., 2016) but can result in large errors, especially when exactly $k$ segments are used. We present a method for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression that combines the scalability of top existing heuristic solutions with a statistical efficiency similar to the optimal solution. This is achieved by using a new method to merge an initial set of segments using precomputed matrices from samples, allowing both merging and error calculation in constant time. Our approach, using the same samples and parameter $k$, produces segments with up to 1,000 times lower MSE compared to Acharya et al. (2016) in about 100 times less runtime on data sets over $10^4$ samples.

We revisit the Bayesian Black–Litterman (BL) portfolio model and remove its reliance on subjective investor views. Classical BL requires an investor “view”: a forecast vector $q$ and its uncertainty matrix $\Omega$ that describe how much a chosen portfolio should outperform the market. Our key idea is to treat $(q,\Omega)$ as latent variables and learn them from market data within a single Bayesian network. Consequently, the resulting posterior estimation admits closed-form expression, enabling fast inference and stable portfolio weights. Building on these, we propose two mechanisms to capture how features interact with returns: shared-latent parametrization and feature-influenced views; both recover classical BL and Markowitz portfolios as special cases. Empirically, on 30-year Dow-Jones and 20-year sector-ETF data, we improve Sharpe ratios by 50\% and cut turnover by 55\% relative to Markowitz and the index baselines. This work turns BL into a fully data-driven, view-free, and coherent Bayesian framework for portfolio optimization.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose \textbf{TimeDART}, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way.We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach.Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART}.

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for _in-context fine-tuning_ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation model that can be prompted (at inference time) with multiple time-series examples, in order to forecast a target time-series into the future. Our foundation model is specifically trained to utilize examples from multiple related time-series in its context window (in addition to the history of the target time-series) to help it adapt to the specific distribution of the target domain at inference time. We show that such a foundation model that uses in-context examples at inference time can obtain much better performance on popular forecasting benchmarks compared to supervised deep learning methods, statistical models, and other time series foundation models. Interestingly, our in-context fine-tuning approach even matches the performance of a foundation model that is explicitly fine-tuned on the target domain.

We consider the Euclidean bi-chromatic matching problem in the dynamic setting, where the goal is to efficiently process point insertions and deletions while maintaining a high-quality solution. Computing the minimum cost bi-chromatic matching is one of the core problems in geometric optimization that has found many applications, most notably in estimating Wasserstein distance between two distributions. In this work, we present the first fully dynamic algorithm for Euclidean bi-chromatic matching with sublinear update time. For any fixed $\varepsilon > 0$, our algorithm achieves $O(1/\varepsilon)$-approximation and handles updates in $O(n^{\varepsilon})$ time. Our experiments show that our algorithm enables effective monitoring of the distributional drift in the Wasserstein distance on real and synthetic data sets, while outperforming the runtime of baseline approximations by orders of magnitudes.

Time-series Generation (TSG) is a prominent research area with broad applications in simulations, data augmentation, and counterfactual analysis. While existing methods have shown promise in unconditional single-domain TSG, real-world applications demand for cross-domain approaches capable of controlled generation tailored to domain-specific constraints and instance-level requirements. In this paper, we argue that text can provide semantic insights, domain information and instance-specific temporal patterns, to guide and improve TSG. We introduce ``Text-Controlled TSG'', a task focused on generating realistic time series by incorporating textual descriptions. To address data scarcity in this setting, we propose a novel LLM-based Multi-Agent framework that synthesizes diverse, realistic text-to-TS datasets. Furthermore, we introduce Bridge, a hybrid text-controlled TSG framework that integrates semantic prototypes with text description for supporting domain-level guidance. This approach achieves state-of-the-art generation fidelity on 11 of 12 datasets, and improves controllability by up to 12% on MSE and 6% MAE compared to no text input generation, highlighting its potential for generating tailored time-series data.

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are characterized by irregular time intervals within variables and unaligned observations across variables, posing challenges in learning temporal and variable dependencies. Many existing IMTS models either require padded samples to learn separately from temporal and variable dimensions, or represent original samples via bipartite graphs or sets. However, the former approaches often need to handle extra padding values affecting efficiency and disrupting original sampling patterns, while the latter ones have limitations in capturing dependencies among unaligned observations. To represent and learn both dependencies from original observations in a unified form, we propose HyperIMTS, a **Hyper**graph neural network for **I**rregular **M**ultivariate **T**ime **S**eries forecasting. Observed values are converted as nodes in the hypergraph, interconnected by temporal and variable hyperedges to enable message passing among all observations. Through irregularity-aware message passing, HyperIMTS captures variable dependencies in a time-adaptive way to achieve accurate forecasting. Experiments demonstrate HyperIMTS's competitive performance among state-of-the-art models in IMTS forecasting with low computational cost. Our code is available at [https://github.com/qianlima-lab/PyOmniTS](https://github.com/qianlima-lab/PyOmniTS).

Explaining deep models for time-series data is crucial for identifying key patterns in sensitive domains, such as healthcare and finance. However, due to the lack of unified optimization criterion, existing explanation methods often suffer from redundancy and incompleteness, where irrelevant patterns are included or key patterns are missed in explanations. To address this challenge, we propose the Optimal Information Retention Principle, where conditional mutual information defines minimizing redundancy and maximizing completeness as optimization objectives. We then derive the corresponding objective function theoretically. As a practical framework, we introduce an explanation framework ORTE, learning a binary mask to eliminate redundant information while mining temporal patterns of explanations. We decouple the discrete mapping process to ensure the stability of gradient propagation, while employing contrastive learning to achieve precise filtering of explanatory patterns through the mask, thereby realizing a trade-off between low redundancy and high completeness. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed principle significantly improves the accuracy and completeness of explanations compared to baseline methods. The code is available at https://github.com/moon2yue/ORTE_public.

Large language models (LLMs) are powerful tools but are often expensive to deploy at scale. LLM query routing mitigates this by dynamically assigning queries to models of varying cost and quality to obtain a desired tradeoff. Prior query routing approaches generate only one response from the selected model and a single response from a small (inexpensive) model was often not good enough to beat a response from a large (expensive) model due to which they end up overusing the large model and missing out on potential cost savings. However, it is well known that for small models, generating multiple responses and selecting the best can enhance quality while remaining cheaper than a single large-model response. We leverage this idea to propose BEST-Route, a novel routing framework that chooses a model and the number of responses to sample from it based on query difficulty and the quality thresholds. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method reduces costs by up to 60% with less than 1% performance drop.

Time-series forecasting plays a critical role in many real-world applications. Although increasingly powerful models have been developed and achieved superior results on benchmark datasets, through a fine-grained sample-level inspection, we find that (i) no single model consistently outperforms others across different test samples, but instead (ii) each model excels in specific cases. These findings prompt us to explore how to adaptively leverage the distinct strengths of various forecasting models for different samples. We introduce TimeFuse, a framework for collective time-series forecasting with sample-level adaptive fusion of heterogeneous models. TimeFuse utilizes meta-features to characterize input time series and trains a learnable fusor to predict optimal model fusion weights for any given input. The fusor can leverage samples from diverse datasets for joint training, allowing it to adapt to a wide variety of temporal patterns and thus generalize to new inputs, even from unseen datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of TimeFuse in various long-/short-term forecasting tasks, achieving near-universal improvement over the state-of-the-art individual models. Code is available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/TimeFuse.