theory->game_theory

Agents built with large language models (LLMs) have shown great potential across a wide range of domains. However, in complex decision-making tasks, pure LLM-based agents tend to exhibit intrinsic bias in their choice of actions, which is inherited from the model's training data and results in suboptimal performance. To develop *strategic language agents*, i.e., agents that generate flexible language actions and possess strong decision-making abilities, we propose a novel framework that powers LLM-based agents with reinforcement learning (RL). We consider Werewolf, a popular social deduction game, as a challenging testbed that emphasizes versatile communication and strategic gameplay. To mitigate the intrinsic bias in language actions, our agents use an LLM to perform deductive reasoning and generate a diverse set of action candidates. Then an RL policy trained to optimize the decision-making ability chooses an action from the candidates to play in the game. Extensive experiments show that our agents overcome the intrinsic bias and outperform existing LLM-based agents in the Werewolf game. We also conduct human-agent experiments and find that our agents achieve human-level performance and demonstrate strong strategic play.

In this study, we consider the realm of covariance matrices in machine learning, particularly focusing on computing Fréchet means on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices, commonly referred to as Karcher or geometric means. Such means are leveraged in numerous machine learning tasks. Relying on advanced statistical tools, we introduce a random matrix theory based method that estimates Fréchet means, which is particularly beneficial when dealing with low sample support and a high number of matrices to average. Our experimental evaluation, involving both synthetic and real-world EEG and hyperspectral datasets, shows that we largely outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Foundation Models (FMs) have demonstrated remarkable insights into the relational dynamics of the world, leading to the crucial question: *how do these models acquire an understanding of world hybrid relations?* Traditional statistical learning, particularly for prediction problems, may overlook the rich and inherently structured information from the data, especially regarding the relationships between objects. We introduce a mathematical model that formalizes relational learning as hypergraph recovery to study pre-training of FMs. In our framework, the world is represented as a hypergraph, with data abstracted as random samples from hyperedges. We theoretically examine the feasibility of a Pre-Trained Model (PTM) to recover this hypergraph and analyze the data efficiency in a minimax near-optimal style. By integrating rich graph theories into the realm of PTMs, our mathematical framework offers powerful tools for an in-depth understanding of pre-training from a unique perspective and can be used under various scenarios. As an example, we extend the framework to entity alignment in multimodal learning.

Developing machine learning models that account for potential faults encountered in real-world environments presents a fundamental challenge for mission-critical applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework grounded in learning theory for dealing with faults. In particular, we propose a framework called *fault-tolerant PAC learning*, aimed at identifying the most fault-tolerant models from a given hypothesis class (such as neural networks). We show that if faults occur randomly, fault-tolerant learning is equivalent to regular PAC learning. However, for *adversarial* faults, we show that the sample complexity of fault-tolerant PAC learning can grow linearly w.r.t. the number of perturbing functions induced by the faults, even for a hypothesis class with VC-dimension 1. We then provide a matching upper bound by restricting the number of perturbing functions. Finally, we show that the linear dependency on the number of perturbing functions can be substantially improved for *deletion faults* in neural networks. Our work provides a powerful formal framework and avenues for a number of future investigations on the precise characterization of fault-tolerant learning.

A recent theory shows that a multi-player decentralized partially observable Markov decision process can be transformed into an equivalent single-player game, enabling the application of Bellman's principle of optimality to solve the single-player game by breaking it down into single-stage subgames. However, this approach entangles the decision variables of all players at each single-stage subgame, resulting in backups with a double-exponential complexity. This paper demonstrates how to disentangle these decision variables while maintaining optimality under hierarchical information sharing, a prominent management style in our society. To achieve this, we apply the principle of optimality to solve any single-stage subgame by breaking it down further into smaller subgames, enabling us to make single-player decisions at a time. Our approach reveals that extensive-form games always exist with solutions to a single-stage subgame, significantly reducing time complexity. Our experimental results show that the algorithms leveraging these findings can scale up to much larger multi-player games without compromising optimality.

Goodness-of-fit testing, a classical statistical tool, has been extensively explored in the batch setting, where the sample size is predetermined. However, practitioners often prefer methods that adapt to the complexity of a problem rather than fixing the sample size beforehand. Classical batch tests are generally unsuitable for streaming data, as valid inference after data peeking requires multiple testing corrections, resulting in reduced statistical power. To address this issue, we delve into the design of consistent sequential goodness-of-fit tests. Following the principle of *testing by betting*, we reframe this task as selecting a sequence of payoff functions that maximize the wealth of a fictitious bettor, betting against the null in a repeated game. We conduct experiments to demonstrate the adaptability of our sequential test across varying difficulty levels of problems while maintaining control over type-I errors.

Ad hoc teamwork poses a challenging problem, requiring the design of an agent to collaborate with teammates without prior coordination or joint training. Open ad hoc teamwork (OAHT) further complicates this challenge by considering environments with a changing number of teammates, referred to as open teams. One promising solution in practice to this problem is leveraging the generalizability of graph neural networks to handle an unrestricted number of agents with various agent-types, named graph-based policy learning (GPL). However, its joint Q-value representation over a coordination graph lacks convincing explanations. In this paper, we establish a new theory to understand the representation of the joint Q-value for OAHT and its learning paradigm, through the lens of cooperative game theory. Building on our theory, we propose a novel algorithm named CIAO, based on GPL's framework, with additional provable implementation tricks that can facilitate learning. The demos of experimental results are available on https://sites.google.com/view/ciao2024, and the code of experiments is published on https://github.com/hsvgbkhgbv/CIAO.

Kernel-based statistical learning on distributional inputs appears in many relevant applications, from medical diagnostics to causal inference, and poses intriguing theoretical questions. While this learning scenario received considerable attention from the machine learning community recently, many gaps in the theory remain. In particular, most works consider only the distributional regression setting, and focus on the regularized least-squares algorithm for this problem. In this work, we start to fill these gaps. We prove two oracle inequalities for kernel machines in general distributional learning scenarios, as well as a generalization result based on algorithmic stability. Our main results are formulated in great generality, utilizing general Hilbertian embeddings, which makes them applicable to a wide array of approaches to distributional learning. Additionally, we specialize our results to the cases of kernel mean embeddings and of the recently introduced Hilbertian embeddings based on sliced Wasserstein distances, providing concrete instances of the general setup. Our results considerably enlarge the scope of theoretically grounded distributional learning, and provide many interesting avenues for future work.

Minimum-norm interpolators have recently gained attention primarily as an analyzable model to shed light on the double descent phenomenon observed for neural networks. The majority of the work has focused on analyzing interpolators in Hilbert spaces, where typically an effectively low-rank structure of the feature covariance prevents a large bias. More recently, tight vanishing bounds have also been shown for isotropic high-dimensional data for $\ell_p$-spaces with $p\in[1,2)$, leveraging sparse structure of the ground truth. However, these proofs are tailored to specific settings and hard to generalize. This paper takes a first step towards establishing a general framework that connects generalization properties of the interpolators to well-known concepts from high-dimensional geometry, specifically, from the local theory of Banach spaces. In particular, we show that under $2$-uniform convexity, the bias of the minimal norm solution is bounded by the Gaussian complexity of the class. We then prove a ``reverse'' Efron-Stein lower bound on the expected conditional variance of the minimal norm solution under cotype $2$. Finally, we prove that this bound is sharp for $\ell_p$-linear regression under sub-Gaussian covariates.

We present our position on the elusive quest for a general-purpose framework for specifying and studying deep learning architectures. Our opinion is that the key attempts made so far lack a coherent bridge between specifying constraints which models must satisfy and specifying their implementations. Focusing on building a such a bridge, we propose to apply category theory---precisely, the universal algebra of monads valued in a 2-category of parametric maps---as a single theory elegantly subsuming both of these flavours of neural network design. To defend our position, we show how this theory recovers constraints induced by geometric deep learning, as well as implementations of many architectures drawn from the diverse landscape of neural networks, such as RNNs. We also illustrate how the theory naturally encodes many standard constructs in computer science and automata theory.

We provide a statistical analysis of regularization-based continual learning on a sequence of linear regression tasks, with emphasis on how different regularization terms affect the model performance. We first derive the convergence rate for the oracle estimator obtained as if all data were available simultaneously. Next, we consider a family of generalized $\ell_2$-regularization algorithms indexed by matrix-valued hyperparameters, which includes the minimum norm estimator and continual ridge regression as special cases. As more tasks are introduced, we derive an iterative update formula for the estimation error of generalized $\ell_2$-regularized estimators, from which we determine the hyperparameters resulting in the optimal algorithm. Interestingly, the choice of hyperparameters can effectively balance the trade-off between forward and backward knowledge transfer and adjust for data heterogeneity. Moreover, the estimation error of the optimal algorithm is derived explicitly, which is of the same order as that of the oracle estimator. In contrast, our lower bounds for the minimum norm estimator and continual ridge regression show their suboptimality. A byproduct of our theoretical analysis is the equivalence between early stopping and generalized $\ell_2$-regularization in continual learning, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we conduct experiments to complement our theory.

A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch between what one wishes to explain (e.g. the output of a classifier) and what current methods such as SHAP explain (e.g. the scalar probability of a class). This paper addresses such gap for probabilistic models by generalising cooperative games and value operators. We introduce the *distributional values*, random variables that track changes in the model output (e.g. flipping of the predicted class) and derive their analytic expressions for games with Gaussian, Bernoulli and Categorical payoffs. We further establish several characterising properties, and show that our framework provides fine-grained and insightful explanations with case studies on vision and language models.

In spite of their huge success, transformer models remain difficult to scale in depth. In this work, we develop a unified signal propagation theory and provide formulae that govern the moments of the forward and backward signal through the transformer model. Our framework can be used to understand and mitigate vanishing/exploding gradients, rank collapse, and instability associated with high attention scores. We also propose DeepScaleLM, an initialization and scaling scheme that conserves unit output/gradient moments throughout the model, enabling the training of very deep models with 1000 layers. We find that transformer models could be much deeper - our deep models with fewer parameters outperform shallow models in Language Modeling, Speech Translation, and Image Classification, across encoder-only, decoder-only and encoder-decoder variants, for both Pre-LN and Post-LN transformers, for multiple datasets and model sizes. These improvements also translate into improved performance on downstream Question Answering tasks and improved robustness for Image Classification.