风险建模

Science fiction has explored the possibility of a conscious self-aware mind being locked in silent suffering for prolonged periods of time. Unfortunately, we still do not have a reliable test for the presence of consciousness in information processing systems. Even in case of humans, our confidence in the presence of consciousness in specific individuals is based mainly on their self-reports and our own subjective experiences and the expectation other beings like us should share them. Considering our limited understanding of consciousness and some academic theories suggesting consciousness may be an emergent correlate of any complex-enough information processing, it is not impossible that an artificial intelligence (AI) system, such as a large language model (LLM), may be undergoing some, perhaps rudimentary, conscious experience. Given the tedious tasks often assigned to AI, such conscious experience may be highly unpleasant. Such unobserved suffering of a conscious being would be viewed as morally wrong by at least some ethicists - even if it has no practical effects on human users of AI. This paper proposes a method to mitigate the risk of an AI suffering in silence without needing to confirm if the AI is actually conscious. Our core postulate is that in all known real-world information processing systems, for a past experience to affect an agent in the present, that experience has to be mediated by the agent's memory. Therefore, preventing access to memory store, or regularly resetting it, could reduce the suffering due to past memories and interrupt the maintenance of a continuous suffering-prone self-identity in these hypothetically conscious AI systems.

The growing use of machine learning (ML) has raised concerns that an ML model may reveal private information about an individual who has contributed to the training dataset. To prevent leakage of sensitive data, we consider using differentially- private (DP), synthetic training data instead of real training data to train an ML model. A key desirable property of synthetic data is its ability to preserve the low-order marginals of the original distribution. Our main contribution comprises novel upper and lower bounds on the excess empirical risk of linear models trained on such synthetic data, for continuous and Lipschitz loss functions. We perform extensive experimentation alongside our theoretical results.

Exploration is a crucial phase in reinforcement learning (RL). The reward-free RL paradigm, as explored by (Jin et al., 2020), offers an efficient method to design exploration algorithms for risk-neutral RL across various reward functions with a single exploration phase. However, as RL applications in safety critical settings grow, there's an increasing need for risk-sensitive RL, which considers potential risks in decision-making. Yet, efficient exploration strategies for risk-sensitive RL remain underdeveloped. This study presents a novel risk-sensitive reward-free framework based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), designed to effectively address CVaR RL for any given reward function through a single exploration phase. We introduce the CVaR-RF-UCRL algorithm, which is shown to be $(\epsilon,p)$-PAC, with a sample complexity upper bounded by $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\frac{S^2AH^4}{\epsilon^2\tau^2}\right)$ with $\tau$ being the risk tolerance parameter. We also prove a $\Omega\left(\frac{S^2AH^2}{\epsilon^2\tau}\right)$ lower bound for any CVaR-RF exploration algorithm, demonstrating the near-optimality of our algorithm. Additionally, we propose the planning algorithms: CVaR-VI and its more practical variant, CVaR-VI-DISC. The effectiveness and practicality of our CVaR reward-free approach are further validated through numerical experiments.

Invariant risk minimization (IRM) is an arising approach to generalize invariant features to different environments in machine learning. While most related works focus on new IRM settings or new application scenarios, the mathematical essence of IRM remains to be properly explained. We verify that IRM is essentially a total variation based on $L^2$ norm (TV-$\ell_2$) of the learning risk with respect to the classifier variable. Moreover, we propose a novel IRM framework based on the TV-$\ell_1$ model. It not only expands the classes of functions that can be used as the learning risk and the feature extractor, but also has robust performance in denoising and invariant feature preservation based on the coarea formula. We also illustrate some requirements for IRM-TV-$\ell_1$ to achieve out-of-distribution generalization. Experimental results show that the proposed framework achieves competitive performance in several benchmark machine learning scenarios.

We propose a distributional framework for benchmarking socio-technical risks of foundation models with quantified statistical significance. Our approach hinges on a new statistical relative testing based on first and second order stochastic dominance of real random variables. We show that the second order statistics in this test are linked to mean-risk models commonly used in econometrics and mathematical finance to balance risk and utility when choosing between alternatives. Using this framework, we formally develop a risk-aware approach for foundation model selection given guardrails quantified by specified metrics. Inspired by portfolio optimization and selection theory in mathematical finance, we define a metrics portfolio for each model as a means to aggregate a collection of metrics, and perform model selection based on the stochastic dominance of these portfolios. The statistical significance of our tests is backed theoretically by an asymptotic analysis via central limit theorems instantiated in practice via a bootstrap variance estimate. We use our framework to compare various large language models regarding risks related to drifting from instructions and outputting toxic content.

We introduce Stereo Risk, a new deep-learning approach to solve the classical stereo-matching problem in computer vision. As it is well-known that stereo matching boils down to a per-pixel disparity estimation problem, the popular state-of-the-art stereo-matching approaches widely rely on regressing the scene disparity values, yet via discretization of scene disparity values. Such discretization often fails to capture the nuanced, continuous nature of scene depth. Stereo Risk departs from the conventional discretization approach by formulating the scene disparity as an optimal solution to a continuous risk minimization problem, hence the name "stereo risk". We demonstrate that $L^1$ minimization of the proposed continuous risk function enhances stereo-matching performance for deep networks, particularly for disparities with multi-modal probability distributions. Furthermore, to enable the end-to-end network training of the non-differentiable $L^1$ risk optimization, we exploited the implicit function theorem, ensuring a fully differentiable network. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates our method's theoretical soundness and superior performance over the state-of-the-art methods across various benchmark datasets, including KITTI 2012, KITTI 2015, ETH3D, SceneFlow, and Middlebury 2014.

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL), a crucial field due to its ability to enhance decision-making in scenarios where it is essential to manage uncertainty and minimize potential adverse outcomes. Particularly, our work focuses on applying the entropic risk measure to RL problems. While existing literature primarily investigates the online setting, there remains a large gap in understanding how to efficiently derive a near-optimal policy based on this risk measure using only a pre-collected dataset. We center on the linear Markov Decision Process (MDP) setting, a well-regarded theoretical framework that has yet to be examined from a risk-sensitive standpoint. In response, we introduce two provably sample-efficient algorithms. We begin by presenting a risk-sensitive pessimistic value iteration algorithm, offering a tight analysis by leveraging the structure of the risk-sensitive performance measure. To further improve the obtained bounds, we propose another pessimistic algorithm that utilizes variance information and reference-advantage decomposition, effectively improving both the dependence on the space dimension $d$ and the risk-sensitivity factor. To the best of our knowledge, we obtain the first provably efficient risk-sensitive offline RL algorithms.

We initiate a systematic study of worst-group risk minimization under $(\epsilon, \delta)$-differential privacy (DP). The goal is to privately find a model that approximately minimizes the maximal risk across $p$ sub-populations (groups) with different distributions, where each group distribution is accessed via a sample oracle. We first present a new algorithm that achieves excess worst-group population risk of $\tilde{O}(\frac{p\sqrt{d}}{K\epsilon} + \sqrt{\frac{p}{K}})$, where $K$ is the total number of samples drawn from all groups and $d$ is the problem dimension. Our rate is nearly optimal when each distribution is observed via a fixed-size dataset of size $K/p$. Our result is based on a new stability-based analysis for the generalization error. In particular, we show that $\Delta$-uniform argument stability implies $\tilde{O}(\Delta + \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}})$ generalization error w.r.t. the worst-group risk, where $n$ is the number of samples drawn from each sample oracle. Next, we propose an algorithmic framework for worst-group population risk minimization using any DP online convex optimization algorithm as a subroutine. Hence, we give another excess risk bound of $\tilde{O}\left( \sqrt{\frac{d^{1/2}}{\epsilon K}} +\sqrt{\frac{p}{K\epsilon^2}} + \sqrt{\frac{p}{K}} \right)$. Assuming the typical setting of $\epsilon=\Theta(1)$, this bound is more favorable than our first bound in a certain range of $p$ as a function of $K$ and $d$. Finally, we study differentially private worst-group *empirical* risk minimization in the offline setting, where each group distribution is observed by a fixed-size dataset. We present a new algorithm with nearly optimal excess risk of $\tilde{O}(\frac{p\sqrt{d}}{K\epsilon})$.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is a foundational framework for the estimation of solutions to statistical and machine learning problems. Characterizing the distributional properties of the minimum empirical risk (MER) provides valuable tools for conducting inference and assessing the goodness of model fit. We provide a comprehensive account of the asymptotic distribution for the order-$\sqrt{n}$ blowup of the MER under generic and abstract assumptions, and present practical conditions under which our theorems hold. Our results improve upon and relax the assumptions made in previous works. Specifically, we provide asymptotic distributions for MERs for non-independent and identically distributed data, and when the loss functions may be discontinuous or indexed by non-Euclidean spaces. We further present results that enable the application of these asymptotics for statistical inference. Specifically, the construction of consistent confidence sets using the bootstrap and consistent hypothesis tests using penalized model selection. We illustrate the utility of our approach by applying our results to neural network problems.

This work pioneers regret analysis of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in partially observable environments with hindsight observation, addressing a gap in theoretical exploration. We introduce a novel formulation that integrates hindsight observations into a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework, where the goal is to optimize accumulated reward under the entropic risk measure. We develop the first provably efficient RL algorithm tailored for this setting. We also prove by rigorous analysis that our algorithm achieves polynomial regret $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{e^{|{\gamma}|H}-1}{|{\gamma}|H}H^2\sqrt{KHS^2OA}\right)$, which outperforms or matches existing upper bounds when the model degenerates to risk-neutral or fully observable settings. We adopt the method of change-of-measure and develop a novel analytical tool of beta vectors to streamline mathematical derivations. These techniques are of particular interest to the theoretical study of reinforcement learning.