深度学习 · probabilistic methods

The limitations of purely neural learning have sparked an interest in probabilistic neurosymbolic models, which combine neural networks with probabilistic logical reasoning. As these neurosymbolic models are trained with gradient descent, we study the complexity of differentiating probabilistic reasoning. We prove that although approximating these gradients is intractable in general, it becomes tractable during training. Furthermore, we introduce *WeightME*, an unbiased gradient estimator based on model sampling. Under mild assumptions, WeightME approximates the gradient with probabilistic guarantees using a logarithmic number of calls to a SAT solver. Lastly, we evaluate the necessity of these guarantees on the gradient. Our experiments indicate that the existing biased approximations indeed struggle to optimize even when exact solving is still feasible.

Approximate nearest neighbor search (ANNS) in high-dimensional spaces is a pivotal challenge in the field of machine learning. In recent years graph-based methods have emerged as the superior approach to ANNS, establishing a new state of the art. Although various optimizations for graph-based ANNS have been introduced, they predominantly rely on heuristic methods that lack formal theoretical backing. This paper aims to enhance routing within graph-based ANNS by introducing a method that offers a probabilistic guarantee when exploring a node’s neighbors in the graph. We formulate the problem as probabilistic routing and develop two baseline strategies by incorporating locality-sensitive techniques. Subsequently, we introduce PEOs, a novel approach that efficiently identifies which neighbors in the graph should be considered for exact distance computation, thus significantly improving efficiency in practice. Our experiments demonstrate that equipping PEOs can increase throughput on a commonly utilized graph index (HNSW) by a factor of 1.6 to 2.5, and its efficiency consistently outperforms the leading-edge routing technique by 1.1 to 1.4 times. The code and datasets used for our evaluations are publicly accessible at https//github.com/ICML2024-code/PEOs .

Diffusion models have exhibited remarkable advancements in generating high-quality data. However, a critical drawback is their computationally intensive inference process, which requires a large number of timesteps to generate a single sample. Existing methods address this challenge by decoupling the forward and reverse processes, and they rely on handcrafted rules for sampling acceleration, leading to the risk of discarding important steps. In this paper, we propose an Efficient Denoising Diffusion method via Probabilistic Masking (EDDPM) that can identify and skip the redundant steps during training. To determine whether a timestep should be skipped or not, we employ probabilistic reparameterization to continualize the binary determination mask. The mask distribution parameters are learned jointly with model weights. By incorporating a real-time sparse constraint, our method can effectively identify and eliminate unnecessary steps during the training iterations, thereby improving inference efficiency. Notably, as the model becomes fully trained, the random masks converge to a sparse and deterministic one, retaining only a small number of essential steps. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed EDDPM over the state-of-the-art sampling acceleration methods across various domains. EDDPM can generate high-quality samples with only 20% of the steps for time series imputation and achieve 4.89 FID with 5 steps for CIFAR-10. Moreover, when starting from a pretrained model, our method efficiently identifies the most informative timesteps within a single epoch, which demonstrates the potential of EDDPM to be a practical tool to explore large diffusion models with limited resources.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theroy, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and Hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks, and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. Precision weight posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower Precision, contributing to the the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM) which demonstrates the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models, and allocate the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights is an estimator of model's predictability on the rigid body and fluid motion dataset. We also apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the U.K. precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models in providing more proficient forecasting.

How do we infer a 3D scene from a single image in the presence of corruptions like rain, snow or fog? Straightforward domain randomization relies on knowing the family of corruptions ahead of time. Here, we propose a Bayesian approach---dubbed robust inverse graphics (RIG)---that relies on a strong scene prior and an uninformative uniform corruption prior, making it applicable to a wide range of corruptions. Given a single image, RIG performs posterior inference jointly over the scene and the corruption. We demonstrate this idea by training a neural radiance field (NeRF) scene prior and using a secondary NeRF to represent the corruptions over which we place an uninformative prior. RIG, trained only on clean data, outperforms depth estimators and alternative NeRF approaches that perform point estimation instead of full inference. The results hold for a number of scene prior architectures based on normalizing flows and diffusion models. For the latter, we develop reconstruction-guidance with auxiliary latents (ReGAL)---a diffusion conditioning algorithm that is applicable in the presence of auxiliary latent variables such as the corruption. RIG demonstrates how scene priors can be used beyond generation tasks.

In goal-conditioned hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), a high-level policy specifies a subgoal for the low-level policy to reach. Effective HRL hinges on a suitable subgoal representation function, abstracting state space into latent subgoal space and inducing varied low-level behaviors. Existing methods adopt a subgoal representation that provides a deterministic mapping from state space to latent subgoal space. Instead, this paper utilizes Gaussian Processes (GPs) for the first probabilistic subgoal representation. Our method employs a GP prior on the latent subgoal space to learn a posterior distribution over the subgoal representation functions while exploiting the long-range correlation in the state space through learnable kernels. This enables an adaptive memory that integrates long-range subgoal information from prior planning steps allowing to cope with stochastic uncertainties. Furthermore, we propose a novel learning objective to facilitate the simultaneous learning of probabilistic subgoal representations and policies within a unified framework. In experiments, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in standard benchmarks but also in environments with stochastic elements and under diverse reward conditions. Additionally, our model shows promising capabilities in transferring low-level policies across different tasks.

Reinforcement learning can provide effective reasoning for sequential decision-making problems with variable dynamics. Such reasoning in practical implementation, however, poses a persistent challenge in interpreting the reward function and the corresponding optimal policy. Consequently, representing sequential decision-making problems as probabilistic inference can have considerable value, as, in principle, the inference offers diverse and powerful mathematical tools to infer the stochastic dynamics whilst suggesting a probabilistic interpretation of policy optimization. In this study, we propose a novel Adaptive Wasserstein Variational Optimization, namely AWaVO, to tackle these interpretability challenges. Our approach uses formal methods to achieve the interpretability: convergence guarantee, training transparency, and intrinsic decision-interpretation. To demonstrate its practicality, we showcase guaranteed interpretability including a global convergence rate $\Theta(1/\sqrt{T})$ not only in simulation but also in real-world quadrotor tasks. In comparison with state-of-the-art benchmarks, including TRPO-IPO, PCPO, and CRPO, we empirically verify that AWaVO offers a reasonable trade-off between high performance and sufficient interpretability.

Recent advancements in semi-supervised learning have focused on a more realistic yet challenging task: addressing imbalances in labeled data while the class distribution of unlabeled data remains both unknown and potentially mismatched. Current approaches in this sphere often presuppose rigid assumptions regarding the class distribution of unlabeled data, thereby limiting the adaptability of models to only certain distribution ranges. In this study, we propose a novel approach, introducing a highly adaptable framework, designated as **SimPro**, which does not rely on any predefined assumptions about the distribution of unlabeled data. Our framework, grounded in a probabilistic model, innovatively refines the expectation-maximization (EM) method by separating the modeling of conditional and marginal class distributions. This separation facilitates a closed-form solution for class distribution estimation during the maximization phase, leading to the formulation of a Bayes classifier. The Bayes classifier, in turn, enhances the quality of pseudo-labels in the expectation phase. Remarkably, the SimPro framework is not only straightforward to implement but also comes with theoretical guarantees. Moreover, we introduce two novel class distributions broadening the scope of the evaluation. Our method showcases consistent state-of-the-art performance across diverse benchmarks and data distribution scenarios. benchmarks and data distribution scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/SimPro.

Deep learning methods, including deep multiple instance learning methods, have been criticized for their limited ability to incorporate domain knowledge. A reason that knowledge incorporation is challenging in deep learning is that the models usually lack a mapping between their model components and the entities of the domain, making it a non-trivial task to incorporate probabilistic prior information. In this work, we show that such a mapping between domain entities and model components can be defined for a multiple instance learning setting and propose a framework DeeMILIP that encompasses multiple strategies to exploit this mapping for prior knowledge incorporation. We motivate and formalize these strategies from a probabilistic perspective. Experiments on an immune-based diagnostics case show that our proposed strategies allow to learn generalizable models even in settings with weak signals, limited dataset size, and limited compute.

Given the black box nature of machine learning models, a plethora of explainability methods have been developed to decipher the factors behind individual decisions. In this paper, we introduce a novel problem of black box (probabilistic) explanation certification. We ask the question: Given a black box model with only query access, an explanation for an example and a quality metric (viz. fidelity, stability), can we find the largest hypercube (i.e., $\ell_{\infty}$ ball) centered at the example such that when the explanation is applied to all examples within the hypercube, (with high probability) a quality criterion is met (viz. fidelity greater than some value)? Being able to efficiently find such a *trust region* has multiple benefits: i) insight into model behavior in a *region*, with a *guarantee*; ii) ascertained *stability* of the explanation; iii) *explanation reuse*, which can save time, energy and money by not having to find explanations for every example; and iv) a possible *meta-metric* to compare explanation methods. Our contributions include formalizing this problem, proposing solutions, providing theoretical guarantees for these solutions that are computable, and experimentally showing their efficacy on synthetic and real data.

Zhang et al. (ICML 2021, PLMR 139, pp. 12447–12457) introduced probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) as a probabilistic model to unify probabilistic circuits (PCs) and determinantal point processes (DPPs). At a first glance, PGCs store a distribution in a very different way, they compute the probability generating polynomial instead of the probability mass function and it seems that this is the main reason why PGCs are more powerful than PCs or DPPs. However, PGCs also allow for negative weights, whereas classical PCs assume that all weights are nonnegative. One main insight of this work is that the negative weights are the cause for the power of PGCs and not the different representation. PGCs are PCs in disguise: we show how to transform any PGC on binary variables into a PC with negative weights with only polynomial blowup. PGCs were defined by Zhang et al. only for binary random variables. As our second main result, we show that there is a good reason for this: we prove that PGCs for categorical variables with larger image size do not support tractable marginalization unless NP=P. On the other hand, we show that we can model categorical variables with larger image size as PC with negative weights computing set-multilinear polynomials. These allow for tractable marginalization. In this sense, PCs with negative weights strictly subsume PGCs.

Vision transformers (ViTs) have emerged as a significant area of focus, particularly for their capacity to be jointly trained with large language models and to serve as robust vision foundation models. Yet, the development of trustworthy explanation methods for ViTs has lagged, particularly in the context of post-hoc interpretations of ViT predictions. Existing sub-image selection approaches, such as feature-attribution and conceptual models, fall short in this regard. This paper proposes five desiderata for explaining ViTs -- faithfulness, stability, sparsity, multi-level structure, and parsimony -- and demonstrates the inadequacy of current methods in meeting these criteria comprehensively. We introduce a variational Bayesian explanation framework, dubbed ProbAbilistic Concept Explainers (PACE), which models the distributions of patch embeddings to provide trustworthy post-hoc conceptual explanations. Our qualitative analysis reveals the distributions of patch-level concepts, elucidating the effectiveness of ViTs by modeling the joint distribution of patch embeddings and ViT's predictions. Moreover, these patch-level explanations bridge the gap between image-level and dataset-level explanations, thus completing the multi-level structure of PACE. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that PACE surpasses state-of-the-art methods in terms of the defined desiderata.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general framework for tractable deep generative models, which support exact and efficient probabilistic inference on their learned distributions. Recent modeling and training advancements have enabled their application to complex real-world tasks. However, the time and memory inefficiency of existing PC implementations hinders further scaling up. This paper proposes PyJuice, a general GPU implementation design for PCs that improves prior art in several regards. Specifically, PyJuice is 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than existing systems (including very recent ones) at training large-scale PCs. Moreover, PyJuice consumes 2-5x less GPU memory, which enables us to train larger models. At the core of our system is a compilation process that converts a PC into a compact representation amenable to efficient block-based parallelization, which significantly reduces IO and makes it possible to leverage Tensor Cores available in modern GPUs. Empirically, PyJuice can be used to improve state-of-the-art PCs trained on image (e.g., ImageNet32) and language (e.g., WikiText, CommonGen) datasets. We further establish a new set of baselines on natural image and language datasets by benchmarking existing PC structures but with much larger sizes and more training epochs, with the hope of incentivizing future research. Code is available at https://github.com/Tractables/pyjuice.

The secondary structure of ribonucleic acid (RNA) is more stable and accessible in the cell than its tertiary structure, making it essential for functional prediction. Although deep learning has shown promising results in this field, current methods suffer from poor generalization and high complexity. In this work, we reformulate the RNA secondary structure prediction as a K-Rook problem, thereby simplifying the prediction process into probabilistic matching within a finite solution space. Building on this innovative perspective, we introduce RFold, a simple yet effective method that learns to predict the most matching K-Rook solution from the given sequence. RFold employs a bi-dimensional optimization strategy that decomposes the probabilistic matching problem into row-wise and column-wise components to reduce the matching complexity, simplifying the solving process while guaranteeing the validity of the output. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RFold achieves competitive performance and about eight times faster inference efficiency than the state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/A4Bio/RFold.

In this paper, we establish a novel connection between total variation (TV) distance estimation and probabilistic inference. In particular, we present an efficient, structure-preserving reduction from relative approximation of TV distance to probabilistic inference over directed graphical models. This reduction leads to a fully polynomial randomized approximation scheme (FPRAS) for estimating TV distances between same-structure distributions over any class of Bayes nets for which there is an efficient probabilistic inference algorithm. In particular, it leads to an FPRAS for estimating TV distances between distributions that are defined over a common Bayes net of small treewidth. Prior to this work, such approximation schemes only existed for estimating TV distances between product distributions. Our approach employs a new notion of *partial* couplings of high-dimensional distributions, which might be of independent interest.

Steerable convolutional neural networks (SCNNs) enhance task performance by modelling geometric symmetries through equivariance constraints on weights. Yet, unknown or varying symmetries can lead to overconstrained weights and decreased performance. To address this, this paper introduces a probabilistic method to learn the degree of equivariance in SCNNs. We parameterise the degree of equivariance as a likelihood distribution over the transformation group using Fourier coefficients, offering the option to model layer-wise and shared equivariance. These likelihood distributions are regularised to ensure an interpretable degree of equivariance across the network. Advantages include the applicability to many types of equivariant networks through the flexible framework of SCNNs and the ability to learn equivariance with respect to any subgroup of any compact group without requiring additional layers. Our experiments reveal competitive performance on datasets with mixed symmetries, with learnt likelihood distributions that are representative of the underlying degree of equivariance.

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe dynamical systems in science, but identifying parameters that explain experimental measurements is challenging. In particular, although ODEs are differentiable and would allow for gradient-based parameter optimization, the nonlinear dynamics of ODEs often lead to many local minima and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. We therefore propose diffusion tempering, a novel regularization technique for probabilistic numerical methods which improves convergence of gradient-based parameter optimization in ODEs. By iteratively reducing a noise parameter of the probabilistic integrator, the proposed method converges more reliably to the true parameters. We demonstrate that our method is effective for dynamical systems of different complexity and show that it obtains reliable parameter estimates for a Hodgkin--Huxley model with a practically relevant number of parameters.

A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch between what one wishes to explain (e.g. the output of a classifier) and what current methods such as SHAP explain (e.g. the scalar probability of a class). This paper addresses such gap for probabilistic models by generalising cooperative games and value operators. We introduce the *distributional values*, random variables that track changes in the model output (e.g. flipping of the predicted class) and derive their analytic expressions for games with Gaussian, Bernoulli and Categorical payoffs. We further establish several characterising properties, and show that our framework provides fine-grained and insightful explanations with case studies on vision and language models.