处理效应

Contextual dynamic pricing is a problem of setting prices based on current contextual information and previous sales history to maximize revenue. A popular approach is to postulate a distribution of customer valuation as a function of contextual information and the baseline valuation. A semi-parametric setting, where the context effect is parametric and the baseline is nonparametric, is of growing interest due to its flexibility. A challenge is that customer valuation is almost never observable in practice and is instead *type-I interval censored* by the offered price. To address this challenge, we propose a novel semi-parametric contextual pricing algorithm for stochastic contexts, called the epoch-based Cox proportional hazards Contextual Pricing (CoxCP) algorithm. To our best knowledge, our work is the first to employ the Cox model for customer valuation. The CoxCP algorithm has a high-probability regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}( T^{\frac{2}{3}}d )$, where $T$ is the length of horizon and $d$ is the dimension of context. In addition, if the baseline is known, the regret bound can improve to $O( d \log T )$ under certain assumptions. We demonstrate empirically the proposed algorithm performs better than existing semi-parametric contextual pricing algorithms when the model assumptions of all algorithms are correct.

Estimating the effects of multi-dimensional treatments (i.e., joint treatment effects) is critical in many data-intensive domains, including genetics and drug evaluation. The main challenges for studying the joint treatment effects include the need for large sample sizes to explore different treatment combinations as well as potentially unsafe treatment interactions. In this paper, we develop machinery for estimating joint treatment effects by combining data from multiple experimental datasets. In particular, first, we develop new identification conditions for determining whether a joint treatment effect can be computed in terms of multiple interventional distributions under various scenarios. Further, we develop estimators with statistically appealing properties, including consistency and robustness to model misspecification and slow convergence. Finally, we perform simulation studies, which corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

This paper revisits Gaussian Mixture Copula Model (GMCM), a more expressive alternative to the widely used Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), with the goal to make its parameter estimation tractable. Both the Expectation Maximization and the direct Likelihood Maximization frameworks for GMCM have to grapple with a likelihood function that lacks a closed form. This has led to a few approximation schemes that alleviate the problem, nonetheless leaving the issue still unresolved. Additionally, past works have alluded to an additional challenge of parameter non-identifiability, but none has offered a rigorous treatment and a commensurate solution framework to overcome the same. This work offers solutions to each of these issues in an attempt to help GMCM realize its full potential. The source of non-identifiability is not only proven but also suitable priors are proposed that eliminate the problem. Additionally, an efficient numerical framework is proposed to evaluate the intractable likelihood function, while also providing its analytical derivatives. Finally, a view of GMCM as a series of bijective mappings from a base distribution is presented, which paves the way to synthesize GMCM using modern, probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). The main claims of this work are supported by empirical evidence gathered on synthetic and real-world datasets.

In this work we identify the dormant neuron phenomenon in deep reinforcement learning, where an agent's network suffers from an increasing number of inactive neurons, thereby affecting network expressivity. We demonstrate the presence of this phenomenon across a variety of algorithms and environments, and highlight its effect on learning. To address this issue, we propose a simple and effective method (ReDo) that Recycles Dormant neurons throughout training. Our experiments demonstrate that ReDo maintains the expressive power of networks by reducing the number of dormant neurons and results in improved performance.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is crucial for identifying the variation of treatment effects across individuals or subgroups. Most existing methods estimate HTE by removing the confounding bias from imbalanced treatment assignments. However, these methods may produce unreliable estimates of treatment effects and potentially allocate suboptimal treatment arms for underrepresented populations. To improve the estimation accuracy of HTE for underrepresented populations, we propose a novel Stable CounterFactual Regression (StableCFR) to smooth the population distribution and upsample the underrepresented subpopulations, while balancing confounders between treatment and control groups. Specifically, StableCFR upsamples the underrepresented data using uniform sampling, where each disjoint subpopulation is weighted proportional to the Lebesgue measure of its support. Moreover, StableCFR balances covariates by using an epsilon-greedy matching approach. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our StableCFR on estimating HTE for underrepresented populations.

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) of contextual bandit policies for large discrete action spaces where conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance. To circumvent this variance issue, we propose a new estimator, called *OffCEM*, that is based on the *conjunct effect model* (CEM), a novel decomposition of the causal effect into a cluster effect and a residual effect. OffCEM applies importance weighting only to action clusters and addresses the residual causal effect through model-based reward estimation. We show that the proposed estimator is unbiased under a new assumption, called *local correctness*, which only requires that the residual-effect model preserves the relative expected reward differences of the actions within each cluster. To best leverage the CEM and local correctness, we also propose a new two-step procedure for performing model-based estimation that minimizes bias in the first step and variance in the second step. We find that the resulting OffCEM estimator substantially improves bias and variance compared to a range of conventional estimators. Experiments demonstrate that OffCEM provides substantial improvements in OPE especially in the presence of many actions.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative–depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

A *treatment policy* defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict *what happens if a policy is changed*. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend, for example, on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome *after an intervention on the treatment policy* (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.

In this paper, we study the implicit regularization of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) through the lens of *dynamical stability* (Wu et al., 2018). We start by revising existing stability analyses of SGD, showing how the Frobenius norm and trace of Hessian relate to different notions of stability. Notably, if a global minimum is linearly stable for SGD, then the trace of Hessian must be less than or equal to $2/\eta$, where $\eta$ denotes the learning rate. By contrast, for gradient descent (GD), the stability imposes a similar constraint but only on the largest eigenvalue of Hessian. We then turn to analyze the generalization properties of these stable minima, focusing specifically on two-layer ReLU networks and diagonal linear networks. Notably, we establish the *equivalence* between these metrics of sharpness and certain parameter norms for the two models, which allows us to show that the stable minima of SGD provably generalize well. By contrast, the stability-induced regularization of GD is provably too weak to ensure satisfactory generalization. This discrepancy provides an explanation of why SGD often generalizes better than GD. Note that the learning rate (LR) plays a pivotal role in the strength of stability-induced regularization. As the LR increases, the regularization effect becomes more pronounced, elucidating why SGD with a larger LR consistently demonstrates superior generalization capabilities. Additionally, numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical findings.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

We propose a new definition of instance optimality for differentially private estimation algorithms. Our definition requires an optimal algorithm to compete, simultaneously for every dataset $D$, with the best private benchmark algorithm that (a) knows $D$ in advance and (b) is evaluated by its worst-case performance on large subsets of $D$. That is, the benchmark algorithm need not perform well when potentially extreme points are added to $D$; it only has to handle the removal of a small number of real data points that already exist. This makes our benchmark significantly stronger than those proposed in prior work. We nevertheless show, for real-valued datasets, how to construct private algorithms that achieve our notion of instance optimality when estimating a broad class of dataset properties, including means, quantiles, and $\ell_p$-norm minimizers. For means in particular, we provide a detailed analysis and show that our algorithm simultaneously matches or exceeds the asymptotic performance of existing algorithms under a range of distributional assumptions.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal queries, researchers developed polynomial programs to estimate tight bounds on causal effect. However, these are computationally difficult to optimize for variables with large support sizes. In this paper, we analyze the effect of "weak confounding'" on causal estimands. More specifically, under the assumption that the unobserved confounders that render a query non-identifiable have small entropy, we propose an efficient linear program to derive the upper and lower bounds of the causal effect. We show that our bounds are consistent in the sense that as the entropy of unobserved confounders goes to zero, the gap between the upper and lower bound vanishes. Finally, we conduct synthetic and real data simulations to compare our bounds with the bounds obtained by the existing work that cannot incorporate such entropy constraints and show that our bounds are tighter for the setting with weak confounders.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect $Y$ can be written as a function of the cause $X$ and a noise source $N$ independent of $X$, which may be scaled by a positive function $g$ over the cause, i.e., $Y = f(X) + g(X)N$. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Gradient-based methods for value estimation in reinforcement learning have favorable stability properties, but they are typically much slower than Temporal Difference (TD) learning methods. We study the root causes of this slowness and show that Mean Square Bellman Error (MSBE) is an ill-conditioned loss function in the sense that its Hessian has large condition-number. To resolve the adverse effect of poor conditioning of MSBE on gradient based methods, we propose a low complexity batch-free proximal method that approximately follows the Gauss-Newton direction and is asymptotically robust to parameterization. Our main algorithm, called RANS, is efficient in the sense that it is significantly faster than the residual gradient methods while having almost the same computational complexity, and is competitive with TD on the classic problems that we tested.

We study efficient mechanisms for differentially private kernel density estimation (DP-KDE). Prior work for the Gaussian kernel described algorithms that run in time exponential in the number of dimensions $d$. This paper breaks the exponential barrier, and shows how the KDE can privately be approximated in time linear in $d$, making it feasible for high-dimensional data. We also present improved bounds for low-dimensional data. Our results are obtained through a general framework, which we term Locality Sensitive Quantization (LSQ), for constructing private KDE mechanisms where existing KDE approximation techniques can be applied. It lets us leverage several efficient non-private KDE methods---like Random Fourier Features, the Fast Gauss Transform, and Locality Sensitive Hashing---and ``privatize'' them in a black-box manner. Our experiments demonstrate that our resulting DP-KDE mechanisms are fast and accurate on large datasets in both high and low dimensions.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such under-specified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.