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Does the Data Processing Inequality Reflect Practice? On the Utility of Low-Level Tasks

Roy Turgeman, Tom Tirer

The data processing inequality is an information-theoretic principle stating that the information content of a signal cannot be increased by processing the observations. In particular, it suggests that there is no benefit in enhancing the signal or encoding it before addressing a classification problem. This assertion can be proven to be true for the case of the optimal Bayes classifier. However, in practice, it is common to perform "low-level" tasks before "high-level" downstream tasks despite the overwhelming capabilities of modern deep neural networks. In this paper, we aim to understand when and why low-level processing can be beneficial for classification. We present a comprehensive theoretical study of a binary classification setup, where we consider a classifier that is tightly connected to the optimal Bayes classifier and converges to it as the number of training samples increases. We prove that for any finite number of training samples, there exists a pre-classification processing that improves the classification accuracy. We also explore the effect of class separation, training set size, and class balance on the relative gain from this procedure. We support our theory with an empirical investigation of the theoretical setup. Finally, we conduct an empirical study where we investigate the effect of denoising and encoding on the performance of practical deep classifiers on benchmark datasets. Specifically, we vary the size and class distribution of the training set, and the noise level, and demonstrate trends that are consistent with our theoretical results.

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pySpatial: Generating 3D Visual Programs for Zero-Shot Spatial Reasoning

Zhanpeng Luo, Ce Zhang, Silong Yong, Cunxi Dai, Qianwei Wang, Haoxi Ran, Guanya Shi, Katia P. Sycara, Yaqi Xie

Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in general-purpose perception and reasoning, but they still struggle with tasks that require spatial understanding of the 3D world. To address this, we introduce pySpatial, a visual programming framework that equips MLLMs with the ability to interface with spatial tools via Python code generation. Given an image sequence and a natural-language query, the model composes function calls to spatial tools including 3D reconstruction, camera-pose recovery, novel-view rendering, etc. These operations convert raw 2D inputs into an explorable 3D scene, enabling MLLMs to reason explicitly over structured spatial representations. Notably, pySpatial requires no gradient-based fine-tuning and operates in a fully zero-shot setting. Experimental evaluations on the challenging MindCube and Omni3D-Bench benchmarks demonstrate that our framework pySpatial consistently surpasses strong MLLM baselines; for instance, it outperforms GPT-4.1-mini by 12.94% on MindCube. Furthermore, we conduct real-world indoor navigation experiments where the robot can successfully traverse complex environments using route plans generated by pySpatial, highlighting the practical effectiveness of our approach. Our project website will be available at https://pySpatial.github.io.

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CauKer: Classification Time Series Foundation Models Can Be Pretrained on Synthetic Data

Shifeng Xie, Vasilii Feofanov, Jianfeng Zhang, Themis Palpanas, Ievgen Redko

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

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Structure-Aware Graph Hypernetworks for Neural Program Synthesis

Wenhao Li, Yudong Xu, Elias Boutros Khalil, Scott Sanner

We study the neural program synthesis of $\textit{parameterized}$ function families through the lens of meta-learning with hypernetworks. Given a user intent $U$, a meta-learner $M_{\phi}$ produces a full weight set $\hat{\theta}=M_{\phi}(U)$ for a target neural network with fixed architecture $S$, and the instantiated network $m_{S,\hat{\theta}}(X)\to Y$ realizes the behavior intended for $U$. Classical hypernetworks typically $\textit{ignore the target network’s structure}$ and emit a flat list of weights; as a consequence, they fail to account for $\textit{neuron-permutation symmetry}$—many distinct parameterizations of $S$ implement the same function—so equivalent solutions are treated as different targets, fragmenting supervision and hurting out-of-distribution generalization. To address this, we propose $\textit{Meta-GNN}$, a hypernetwork that constructs a $\textit{neural graph}$ from the target architecture $S$ and applies $\textbf{structure-aware}$ message passing with parameter-tied encoders and decoders. This design reduces the search space during learning by collapsing equivalent classes of target networks, without loss of expressivity. Empirically, across modular arithmetic ($\textit{AddMod}$-$p$), array operations ($\textit{SumFirst}$-$n$), and inverse-rule tasks from 1D-ARC, $\textit{Meta-GNN}$ substantially improves learning and $\textbf{out-of-distribution generalization}$ compared to classic hypernetworks and direct $(U,X)\to Y$ baselines. Mechanistic analyses reveal $\textit{what is learned}$: on $\textit{AddMod}$-$p$ the synthesized Transformers recover the canonical clock representation and admit a compact closed-form map $U\mapsto\theta$. These results demonstrate that structure-aware Meta-GNNs enable reliable generalization to $\textit{unseen program parameterizations}$, providing a critical advance for the nascent field of neural program synthesis.

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KernelFusion: Zero-Shot Blind Super-Resolution via Patch Diffusion

Oliver Heinimann, Tal Zimbalist, Assaf Shocher, michal Irani

Traditional super-resolution (SR) methods assume an "ideal'' downscaling SR-kernel (e.g., bicubic downscaling) between the high-resolution (HR) image and the low-resolution (LR) image. Such methods fail once the LR images are generated differently. Current blind-SR methods aim to remove this assumption, but are still fundamentally restricted to rather simplistic downscaling SR-kernels (e.g., anisotropic Gaussian kernels), and fail on more complex (out of distribution) downscaling degradations. However, using the correct SR-kernel is often more important than using a sophisticated SR algorithm. In "KernelFusion'' we introduce a zero-shot diffusion-based method that uses an unrestricted kernel. Our method recovers the unique image-specific SR-kernel directly from the LR input image, while simultaneously recovering its corresponding HR image. KernelFusion exploits the principle that the correct SR-kernel is the one that maximizes patch similarity across different scales of the LR image. We first train an image-specific patch-based diffusion model on the single LR input image, capturing its unique internal patch statistics. We then reconstruct a larger HR image with the same learned patch distribution, while simultaneously recovering the correct downscaling SR-kernel that maintains this cross-scale relation between the HR and LR images. Empirical results demonstrate that KernelFusion handles complex downscaling degradations where existing Blind-SR methods fail, achieving robust kernel recovery and superior SR quality. By breaking free from predefined kernel assumptions and training distributions, KernelFusion establishes a new paradigm of zero-shot Blind-SR that can handle unrestricted, image-specific kernels previously thought impossible.

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OWLEYE: ZERO-SHOT LEARNER FOR CROSSDOMAIN GRAPH DATA ANOMALY DETECTION

Lecheng Zheng, Dongqi Fu, Zihao Li, Jingrui He

Graph structured data is commonly used to represent complex relationships such as transactions between accounts, communications between devices, and dependencies among machines or processes. Correspondingly, graph anomaly detection (GAD) plays a critical role in identifying anomalies across various domains, including finance, cybersecurity, manufacturing, etc. Facing the large-volume and multi-domain graph data, recent efforts aim to develop foundational generalist models capable of detecting anomalies in unseen graphs without retraining. To the best of our knowledge, the different feature semantics and dimensions of cross-domain graph structured data heavily hinders the development of graph foundation model, and leaves the further in-depth continual learning and inference capabilities in the evolving setting a quite nascent problem. To address these above challenges, we propose OWLEYE, a novel zero-shot GAD framework that learns transferable patterns of normal behavior from multiple graphs. Systematically, OWLEYE first introduces a cross-domain feature alignment module to harmonize feature distributions, which preserves domain-specific semantics during aligning more than the simple but widely-used Principle Component Analysis. Second, with aligned features, to enable method with continuous and scaling-up learning and inference capabilities, OWLEYE designs the multi-domain pattern dictionary learning to encode shared structural and attribute-based patterns. Third, for achieving the in-context learning ability, OWLEYE presents a truncated attention-based reconstruction module to robustly detect anomalies without requiring labeled data for unseen graph structured data. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that OWLEYE achieves superior performance and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art baselines, establishing a strong foundation for scalable and label-efficient anomaly detection.

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Relational Transformer: Toward Zero-Shot Foundation Models for Relational Data

Rishabh Ranjan, Valter Hudovernik, Mark Znidar, Charilaos I. Kanatsoulis, Roshan Reddy Upendra, Mahmoud Mohammadi, Joe Meyer, Tom Palczewski, Carlos Guestrin, Jure Leskovec

Pretrained transformers readily adapt to new sequence modeling tasks via zero-shot prompting, but relational domains still lack architectures that transfer across datasets and tasks. The core challenge is the diversity of relational data, with varying heterogeneous schemas, graph structures, and functional dependencies. We propose the _Relational Transformer (RT)_, a cell-level architecture pretrained on diverse relational databases and directly applicable to unseen datasets and tasks, without any need for task- or dataset-specific fine-tuning or retrieval of in-context examples. RT (i) tokenizes cells with table/column metadata, (ii) is pretrained via masked token prediction, and (iii) utilizes a novel _Relational Attention_ mechanism over columns, rows, and primary–foreign key links. Pretrained on RelBench datasets spanning tasks such as churn and sales forecasting, RT attains strong zero-shot performance; on binary classification it averages 94\% of fully supervised AUROC in a single forward pass, and fine-tuning yields state-of-the-art results with high sample efficiency. Our experiments show that RT’s zero-shot transfer harnesses task-table context, column and feature attention, and schema semantics. Overall, RT provides a practical path toward foundation models for relational data.

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Monotone Near-Zero-Sum Games: A Generalization of Convex-Concave Minimax

Ruichen Luo, Sebastian U Stich, Krishnendu Chatterjee

Zero-sum and non-zero-sum (aka general-sum) games are relevant in a wide range of applications. While general non-zero-sum games are computationally hard, researchers focus on the special class of monotone games for gradient-based algorithms. However, there is a substantial gap between the gradient complexity of monotone zero-sum and monotone general-sum games. Moreover, in many practical scenarios of games the zero-sum assumption needs to be relaxed. To address these issues, we define a new intermediate class of monotone near-zero-sum games that contains monotone zero-sum games as a special case. Then, we present a novel algorithm that transforms the near-zero-sum games into a sequence of zero-sum subproblems, improving the gradient-based complexity for the class. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of this new class to model practical scenarios of games motivated from the literature.

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Object-Centric Refinement for Enhanced Zero-Shot Segmentation

Srinivasa Rao Nandam, Sara Atito, Zhenhua Feng, Josef Kittler, Muhammad Awais

Zero-shot semantic segmentation aims to recognize, pixel-wise, unseen categories without annotated masks, typically by leveraging vision-language models such as CLIP. However, the patch representations obtained by the CLIP's vision encoder lack object-centric structure, making it difficult to localize coherent semantic regions. This hinders the performance of the segmentation decoder, especially for unseen categories. To mitigate this issue, we propose object-centric zero-shot segmentation (OC-ZSS) that enhances patch representations using object-level information. To extract object features for patch refinement, we introduce self-supervision-guided object prompts into the encoder. These prompts attend to coarse object regions using attention masks derived from unsupervised clustering of features from a pretrained self-supervised~(SSL) model. Although these prompts offer a structured initialization of the object-level context, the extracted features remain coarse due to the unsupervised nature of clustering. To further refine the object features and effectively enrich patch representations, we develop a dual-stage Object Refinement Attention (ORA) module that iteratively updates both object and patch features through cross-attention. Last, to make the refinement more robust and sensitive to objects of varying spatial scales, we incorporate a lightweight granular attention mechanism that operates over multiple receptive fields. OC-ZSS achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard zero-shot segmentation benchmarks across inductive, transductive, and cross-domain settings.

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Zero-shot HOI Detection with MLLM-based Detector-agnostic Interaction Recognition

Shiyu Xuan, Dongkai Wang, Zechao Li, Jinhui Tang

Zero-shot Human-object interaction (HOI) detection aims to locate humans and objects in images and recognize their interactions. While advances in open-vocabulary object detection provide promising solutions for object localization, interaction recognition (IR) remains challenging due to the combinatorial diversity of interactions. Existing methods, including two-stage methods, tightly couple IR with a specific detector and rely on coarse-grained vision-language model (VLM) features, which limit generalization to unseen interactions. In this work, we propose a decoupled framework that separates object detection from IR and leverages multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) for zero-shot IR. We introduce a deterministic generation method that formulates IR as a visual question answering task and enforces deterministic outputs, enabling training-free zero-shot IR. To further enhance performance and efficiency by fine-tuning the model, we design a spatial-aware pooling module that integrates appearance and pairwise spatial cues, and a one-pass deterministic matching method that predicts all candidate interactions in a single forward pass. Extensive experiments on HICO-DET and V-COCO demonstrate that our method achieves superior zero-shot performance, strong cross-dataset generalization, and the flexibility to integrate with any object detectors without retraining. Code will be released.

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Regularized Latent Dynamics Prediction is a Strong Baseline For Behavioral Foundation Models

Pranaya Jajoo, Harshit Sikchi, Siddhant Agarwal, Amy Zhang, Scott Niekum, Martha White

Behavioral Foundation Models (BFMs) have been recently successful in producing agents with the capabilities to adapt to any unknown reward or task. In reality, these methods are only able to produce near-optimal policies for the reward functions that are in the span of some pre-existing _state features_. Naturally, their efficiency relies heavily on the choice of state features that they use. As a result, these BFMs have used a wide variety of complex objectives, often sensitive to environment coverage, to train task spanning features with different inductive properties. With this work, our aim is to examine the question: are these complex representation learning objectives necessary for zero-shot RL? Specifically, we revisit the objective of self-supervised next-state prediction in latent space for state feature learning, but observe that such an objective alone is prone to increasing state-feature similarity, and subsequently reducing span of reward functions that we can represent optimal policies for. We propose an approach, RLDP, that adds a simple regularization to maintain feature diversity and can match or surpass state-of-the-art complex representation learning methods for zero-shot RL. Furthermore, we demonstrate the prior approaches diverge in low-coverage scenarios where RLDP still succeeds.

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On the $O(1/T)$ Convergence of Alternating Gradient Descent–Ascent in Bilinear Games

Tianlong Nan, Shuvomoy Das Gupta, Garud Iyengar, Christian Kroer

We study the alternating gradient descent-ascent (AltGDA) algorithm in two-player zero-sum games. Alternating methods, where players take turns to update their strategies, have long been recognized as simple and practical approaches for learning in games, exhibiting much better numerical performance than their simultaneous counterparts. However, our theoretical understanding of alternating algorithms remains limited, and results are mostly restricted to the unconstrained setting. We show that for two-player zero-sum games that admit an interior Nash equilibrium, AltGDA converges at an $O(1/T)$ ergodic convergence rate when employing a small constant stepsize. This is the first result showing that alternation improves over the simultaneous counterpart of GDA in the constrained setting. For games without an interior equilibrium, we show an $O(1/T)$ local convergence rate with a constant stepsize that is independent of any game-specific constants. In a more general setting, we develop a performance estimation programming (PEP) framework to jointly optimize the AltGDA stepsize along with its worst-case convergence rate. The PEP results indicate that AltGDA may achieve an $O(1/T)$ convergence rate for a finite horizon $T$, whereas its simultaneous counterpart appears limited to an $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ rate.

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The False Promise of Zero-Shot Super-Resolution in Machine-Learned Operators

Mansi Sakarvadia, Kareem Hegazy, Amin Totounferoush, Kyle Chard, Yaoqing Yang, Ian Foster, Michael W. Mahoney

A core challenge in scientific machine learning, and scientific computing more generally, is modeling continuous phenomena which (in practice) are represented discretely. Machine-learned operators (MLO) have been introduced as a means to achieve this modeling goal, as this class of architecture can perform inference at arbitrary resolution. In this work, we evaluate whether this architectural innovation is sufficient to perform “zero-shot super-resolution,” namely to enable a model to serve inference on higher-resolution data than that on which it was originally trained. We comprehensively evaluate both zero-shot sub-resolution and super-resolution (i.e., multi-resolution) inference in MLOs. We decouple multi-resolution inference into two key behaviors: 1) extrapolation to varying frequency information; and 2) interpolating across varying resolutions. We empirically demonstrate that MLOs fail to do both of these tasks in a zero-shot manner. Consequently, we find MLOs are not able to perform accurate inference at resolutions different from those on which they were trained, and instead they are brittle and susceptible to aliasing. To address these failure modes, we propose a simple, computationally-efficient, and data-driven multi-resolution training protocol that overcomes aliasing and that provides robust multi-resolution generalization.

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Decoupling Primitive with Experts: Dynamic Feature Alignment for Compositional Zero-Shot Learning

Xiao Zhang, Haodong Jing, Yongqiang Ma, Nanning Zheng

Compositional Zero-Shot Learning (CZSL) investigates compositional generalization capacity to recognize unknown state-object pairs based on learned primitive concepts. Existing CZSL methods typically derive primitives features through a simple composition-prototype mapping, which is suboptimal for a set of individuals that can be divided into distinct semantic subsets. Moreover, the one-to-all cross-modal primitives matching neglects compositional divergence within identical states or objects, limiting fine-grained image-composition alignment. In this study, we propose EVA, a Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Semantic Variant Alignment. Specifically, we introduce domain-expert adaption, leveraging multiple experts to achieve token-aware learning and model high-quality primitive representations. To enable accurate compositional generalization, we further present semantic variant alignment to select semantically relevant representation for image-primitives matching. Our method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art CZSL methods on three popular benchmarks in both closed- and open-world settings, demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed insight.

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In-Context Learning of Temporal Point Processes with Foundation Inference Models

David Berghaus, Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski, Cesar Ojeda, Ramses J Sanchez

Modeling event sequences with multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely on training separate, specialized models for each target system. We pursue a radically different approach: drawing on amortized inference and in-context learning, we pretrain a deep neural network to infer, *in-context*, the conditional intensity functions of event histories from a context defined by sets of event sequences. Pretraining is performed on a large synthetic dataset of MTPPs sampled from a broad distribution over Hawkes processes. Once pretrained, our Foundation Inference Model for Point Processes (FIM-PP) can estimate MTPPs from real-world data without any additional training, or be rapidly finetuned to target systems. Experiments show that this amortized approach matches the performance of specialized models on next-event prediction across common benchmark datasets. We provide the pretrained model weights with the supplementary material.

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DiVE-k: DIFFERENTIAL VISUAL REASONING FOR FINE-GRAINED IMAGE RECOGNITION

Raja Kumar, Arka Sadhu, Ram Nevatia

Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) possess extensive text knowledge but struggles to utilize this knowledge for fine-grained image recognition, often failing to differentiate between visually similar categories. Existing fine-tuning methods using Reinforcement Learning (RL) with exact-match reward signals are often brittle, encourage memorization of training categories, and fail to elicit differential reasoning needed for generalization to unseen classes. To address this, we propose $\textbf{DiVE-k}$, $\textbf{Di}$fferential $\textbf{V}$isual r$\textbf{E}$asoning using top-$\textbf{k}$ generations, framework that leverages model's own top-k predictions as a training signal. For each training image, DiVE-k creates a multiple-choice question from the model's top-k outputs and uses RL to train the model to select the correct answer. This approach requires the model to perform fine-grained differential reasoning among plausible options and provides a simple, verifiable reward signal that mitigates memorization and improves generalization. Experiments on five standard fine-grained datasets show that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches. In the standard base-to-novel generalization setting, DiVE-k surpasses the QWEN2.5-VL-7B and ViRFT by 10.04% and 6.16% on the Harmonic Mean metric, respectively. Further experiments show similar gains in mixed-domain and few-shot scenarios.

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Turbo-DDCM: Fast and Flexible Zero-Shot Diffusion-Based Image Compression

Amit Vaisman, Guy Ohayon, Hila Manor, Michael Elad, Tomer Michaeli

While zero-shot diffusion-based compression methods have seen significant progress in recent years, they remain notoriously slow and computationally demanding. This paper presents an efficient zero-shot diffusion-based compression method that runs substantially faster than existing methods, while maintaining performance that is on par with the state-of-the-art techniques. Our method builds upon the recently proposed Denoising Diffusion Codebook Models (DDCMs) compression scheme. Specifically, DDCM compresses an image by sequentially choosing the diffusion noise vectors from reproducible random codebooks, guiding the denoiser’s output to reconstruct the target image. We modify this framework with *Turbo-DDCM*, which efficiently combines a large number of noise vectors at each denoising step, thereby significantly reducing the number of required denoising operations. This modification is also coupled with an improved encoding protocol. Furthermore, we introduce two flexible variants of Turbo-DDCM, a priority-aware variant that prioritizes user-specified regions and a distortion-controlled variant that compresses an image based on a target PSNR rather than a target BPP. Comprehensive experiments position Turbo-DDCM as a compelling, practical, and flexible image compression scheme.

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gen2seg: Generative Models Enable Generalizable Instance Segmentation

Om Khangaonkar, Hamed Pirsiavash

By pretraining to synthesize coherent images from perturbed inputs, generative models inherently learn to understand object boundaries and scene compositions. How can we repurpose these generative representations for general-purpose perceptual organization? We finetune Stable Diffusion and MAE (encoder+decoder) for category-agnostic instance segmentation using our instance coloring loss exclusively on a narrow set of object types (indoor furnishings and cars). Surprisingly, our models exhibit strong zero-shot generalization, accurately segmenting objects of types and styles unseen in finetuning. This holds even for MAE, which is pretrained on unlabeled ImageNet-1K only. When evaluated on unseen object types and styles, our best-performing models closely approach the heavily supervised SAM, and outperform it when segmenting fine structures and ambiguous boundaries. In contrast, existing promptable segmentation architectures or discriminatively pretrained models fail to generalize. This suggests that generative models learn an inherent grouping mechanism that transfers across categories and domains, even without internet-scale pretraining. Please see our website for additional qualitative figures, code, and a demo: https://reachomk.github.io/gen2seg/

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Learning From Dictionary: Enhancing Robustness of Machine-Generated Text Detection in Zero-Shot Language via Adversarial Training

Yuanfan Li, Qi Zhou, Zexuan Xie

Machine-generated text (MGT) detection is critical for safeguarding online content integrity and preventing the spread of misleading information. Although existing detectors achieve high accuracy in monolingual settings, they exhibit severe performance degradation on zero-shot languages and are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. To tackle these challenges, we propose a robust adversarial training framework named \textbf{T}ranslation-based \textbf{A}ttacker \textbf{S}trengthens Mul\textbf{T}ilingual Def\textbf{E}nder (\detectorname). \detectorname comprises two core components: an attacker that performs code-switching by querying translation dictionaries to generate adversarial examples, and a detector trained to resist these attacks while generalizing to unseen languages. We further introduce a novel Language-Agnostic Adversarial Loss (LAAL), which encourages the detector to learn language-invariant feature representations and thus enhances zero-shot detection performance and robustness against unseen attacks. Additionally, the attacker and detector are synchronously updated, enabling continuous improvement of defensive capabilities. Experimental results on 9 languages and 8 attack types show that our \detectorname surpasses 8 SOTA detectors, improving the average F1 score by \textbf{0.064} and reducing the average Attack Success Rate (ASR) by \textbf{3.8\%}. Our framework offers a promising approach for building robust, multilingual MGT detectors with strong generalization to real-world adversarial scenarios. We will release our code, models, and dataset upon acceptance.

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Zero-shot Forecasting by Simulation Alone

Boris N. Oreshkin, Mayank Jauhari, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Malcolm Wolff, Wenhao Pan, Shankar Ramasubramanian, Kin G. Olivares, Tatiana Konstantinova, Andres Potapczynski, Mengfei Cao, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson

Zero-shot time-series forecasting holds great promise, but is still in its infancy, hindered by limited and biased data corpora, leakage-prone evaluation, and privacy and licensing constraints. We propose the first practical univariate time-series simulation pipeline, which is simultaneously fast enough for on-the-fly data generation and enables notable zero-shot forecasting performance on M-Series and GiftEval benchmarks that capture trend/seasonality/intermittency patterns, typical of industrial forecasting applications across a variety of domains. Our simulator is based off of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) as its core data source. Due to instability in the autoregressive component, naive SARIMA parameter sampling often leads to unusable paths. Instead, our simulator follows a three-step procedure: (1) we sample well-behaved trajectories from the system's characteristic polynomial stability region; (2) we introduce a superposition scheme that combines multiple paths into rich multi-seasonality traces; and (3) we add rate-based heavy-tailed noise models to capture burstiness and intermittency alongside seasonalities and trends. Orders of magnitude faster than kernel-based generators, our simulator enables training on circa 1B unique purely simulated series generated on the fly, after which well-established neural backbones exhibit strong zero-shot generalization, surpassing strong statistical forecasters and recent foundation baselines, while operating under strict zero-shot protocol. Notably, on GiftEval we observe a "student-beats-teacher" effect: models trained on our simulations exceed the forecasting accuracy of the generating processes (i.e. AutoARIMA), suggesting emergent generalization beyond the simulator's components.

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零样本分类 · ICLR 2026 | paperlist.ai