变分推断

Data assimilation (DA) is an essential statistical technique for generating accurate estimates of a physical system's states by combining prior model predictions with observational data, especially in the realm of weather forecasting. Effectively modeling the prior distribution while adapting to diverse observational sources presents significant challenges for both traditional and neural network-based DA algorithms. This paper introduces VAE-Var, a novel neural network-based data assimilation algorithm aimed at 1) enhancing accuracy by capturing the non-Gaussian characteristics of the conditional background distribution $p(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{x}_b)$, and 2) efficiently assimilating real-world observational data. VAE-Var utilizes a variational autoencoder to learn the background error distribution, with its decoder creating a variational cost function to optimize the analysis states. The advantages of VAE-Var include: 1) it maintains the framework of traditional variational assimilation, enabling it to accommodate various observation operators, particularly irregular observations; 2) it lessens the dependence on expert knowledge for constructing the background distribution, allowing for improved modeling of non-Gaussian structures; and 3) experimental results indicate that, when applied to the FengWu weather forecasting model, VAE-Var outperforms DiffDA and two traditional algorithms (interpolation and 3DVar) in terms of assimilation accuracy in sparse observational contexts, and is capable of assimilating real-world GDAS prepbufr observations over a year.

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs or NODEs) excel at modeling continuous dynamical systems from observational data, especially when the data is irregularly sampled. However, existing training methods predominantly rely on numerical ODE solvers, which are time-consuming and prone to accumulating numerical errors over time due to autoregression. In this work, we propose VF-NODE, a novel approach based on the variational formulation (VF) to accelerate the training of NODEs. Unlike existing training methods, the proposed VF-NODEs implement a series of global integrals, thus evaluating Deep Neural Network (DNN)--based vector fields only at specific observed data points. This strategy drastically reduces the number of function evaluations (NFEs). Moreover, our method eliminates the use of autoregression, thereby reducing error accumulations for modeling dynamical systems. Nevertheless, the VF loss introduces oscillatory terms into the integrals when using the Fourier basis. We incorporate Filon's method to address this issue. To further enhance the performance for noisy and incomplete data, we employ the natural cubic spline regression to estimate a closed-form approximation. We provide a fundamental analysis of how our approach minimizes computational costs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach accelerates NODE training by 10 to 1000 times compared to existing NODE-based methods, while achieving higher or comparable accuracy in dynamical systems. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhaoHongjue/VF-NODE-ICLR2025.

Mutual Information (MI) is a fundamental measure of dependence between random variables, but its practical application is limited because it is difficult to calculate in many circumstances. Variational methods offer one approach by introducing an approximate distribution to create various bounds on MI, which in turn is an easier optimization problem to solve. In practice, the variational distribution chosen is often a Gaussian, which is convenient but lacks flexibility in modeling complicated distributions. In this paper, we introduce new classes of variational estimators based on Normalizing Flows that extend the previous Gaussian-based variational estimators. Our new estimators maintain many of the same theoretical guarantees while simultaneously enhancing the expressivity of the variational distribution. We experimentally verify that our new methods are effective on large MI problems where discriminative-based estimators, such as MINE and InfoNCE, are fundamentally limited. Furthermore, we compare against a diverse set of benchmarking tests to show that the flow-based estimators often perform as well, if not better, than the discriminative-based counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate how these estimators can be effectively utilized in the Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design setting for online sequential decision making.

We provide finite-particle convergence rates for the Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm in the Kernelized Stein Discrepancy ($\KSD$) and Wasserstein-2 metrics. Our key insight is that the time derivative of the relative entropy between the joint density of $N$ particle locations and the $N$-fold product target measure, starting from a regular initial distribution, splits into a dominant 'negative part' proportional to $N$ times the expected $\KSD^2$ and a smaller 'positive part'. This observation leads to $\KSD$ rates of order $1/\sqrt{N}$, in both continuous and discrete time, providing a near optimal (in the sense of matching the corresponding i.i.d. rates) double exponential improvement over the recent result by~\cite{shi2024finite}. Under mild assumptions on the kernel and potential, these bounds also grow polynomially in the dimension $d$. By adding a bilinear component to the kernel, the above approach is used to further obtain Wasserstein-2 convergence in continuous time. For the case of `bilinear + Mat\'ern' kernels, we derive Wasserstein-2 rates that exhibit a curse-of-dimensionality similar to the i.i.d. setting. We also obtain marginal convergence and long-time propagation of chaos results for the time-averaged particle laws.

Machine learning is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains where erroneous predictions may lead to potentially catastrophic consequences, highlighting the need for learning systems to be aware of how confident they are in their own predictions: in other words, 'to know when they do not know’. In this paper, we propose a novel Random-Set Neural Network (RS-NN) approach to classification which predicts *belief functions* (rather than classical probability vectors) over the class list using the mathematics of *random sets*, i.e., distributions over the collection of *sets* of classes. RS-NN encodes the 'epistemic' uncertainty induced by training sets that are insufficiently representative or limited in size via the size of the convex set of probability vectors associated with a predicted belief function. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian and Ensemble methods in terms of accuracy, uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution (OoD) detection on multiple benchmarks (CIFAR-10 vs SVHN/Intel-Image, MNIST vs FMNIST/KMNIST, ImageNet vs ImageNet-O). RS-NN also scales up effectively to large-scale architectures (e.g. WideResNet-28-10, VGG16, Inception V3, EfficientNetB2 and ViT-Base-16), exhibits remarkable robustness to adversarial attacks and can provide statistical guarantees in a conformal learning setting.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become increasingly popular and deployed in safety-critical applications. In such applications, we want to give certified probabilistic guarantees on performance under adversarial attacks. We propose a novel method, CIVET, for certified training of VAEs. CIVET depends on the key insight that we can bound worst-case VAE error by bounding the error on carefully chosen support sets at the latent layer. We show this point mathematically and present a novel training algorithm utilizing this insight. We show in an extensive evaluation across different datasets (in both the wireless and vision application areas), architectures, and perturbation magnitudes that our method outperforms SOTA methods achieving good standard performance with strong robustness guarantees.

The attention operator is arguably the key distinguishing factor of transformer architectures, which have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on a variety of tasks. However, transformer attention operators often impose a significant computational burden, with the computational complexity scaling quadratically with the number of tokens. In this work, we propose a novel transformer attention operator whose computational complexity scales linearly with the number of tokens. We derive our network architecture by extending prior work which has shown that a transformer style architecture naturally arises by "white-box" architecture design, where each layer of the network is designed to implement an incremental optimization step of a maximal coding rate reduction objective (MCR$^2$). Specifically, we derive a novel variational form of the MCR$^2$ objective and show that the architecture that results from unrolled gradient descent of this variational objective leads to a new attention module called Token Statistics Self-Attention ($\texttt{TSSA}$). $\texttt{TSSA}$ has $\textit{linear computational and memory complexity}$ and radically departs from the typical attention architecture that computes pairwise similarities between tokens. Experiments on vision, language, and long sequence tasks show that simply swapping $\texttt{TSSA}$ for standard self-attention, which we refer to as the Token Statistics Transformer ($\texttt{ToST}$), achieves competitive performance with conventional transformers while being significantly more computationally efficient and interpretable. Our results also somewhat call into question the conventional wisdom that pairwise similarity style attention mechanisms are critical to the success of transformer architectures.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) with an entropic risk measure typically requires knowledge of the transition kernel or performs unstable updates w.r.t. exponential Bellman equations. As a consequence, algorithms that optimize this objective have been restricted to tabular or low-dimensional continuous environments. In this work we leverage the connection between the entropic risk measure and the RL-as-inference framework to develop a risk-sensitive variational actor-critic algorithm (rsVAC). Our work extends the variational framework to incorporate stochastic rewards and proposes a variational model-based actor-critic approach that modulates policy risk via a risk parameter. We consider, both, the risk-seeking and risk-averse regimes and present rsVAC learning variants for each setting. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach produces risk-sensitive policies and yields improvements in both tabular and risk-aware variants of complex continuous control tasks in MuJoCo.

We provide new connections between two distinct federated learning approaches based on (i) ADMM and (ii) Variational Bayes (VB), and propose new variants by combining their complementary strengths. Specifically, we show that the dual variables in ADMM naturally emerge through the "site" parameters used in VB with isotropic Gaussian covariances. Using this, we derive two versions of ADMM from VB that use flexible covariances and functional regularisation, respectively. Through numerical experiments, we validate the improvements obtained in performance. The work shows connection between two fields that are believed to be fundamentally different and combines them to improve federated learning.

Optimization in the Bures-Wasserstein space has been gaining popularity in the machine learning community since it draws connections between variational inference and Wasserstein gradient flows. The variational inference objective function of Kullback–Leibler divergence can be written as the sum of the negative entropy and the potential energy, making forward-backward Euler the method of choice. Notably, the backward step admits a closed-form solution in this case, facilitating the practicality of the scheme. However, the forward step is not exact since the Bures-Wasserstein gradient of the potential energy involves "intractable" expectations. Recent approaches propose using the Monte Carlo method -- in practice a single-sample estimator -- to approximate these terms, resulting in high variance and poor performance. We propose a novel variance-reduced estimator based on the principle of control variates. We theoretically show that this estimator has a smaller variance than the Monte-Carlo estimator in scenarios of interest. We also prove that variance reduction helps improve the optimization bounds of the current analysis. We demonstrate that the proposed estimator gains order-of-magnitude improvements over the previous Bures-Wasserstein methods.

Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce **_posteriors_**, an easily extensible PyTorch library hosting general-purpose implementations making Bayesian learning accessible and scalable to large data and parameter regimes; (ii) present a tempered framing of stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo, as implemented in posteriors, that transitions seamlessly into optimization and unveils a minor modification to deep ensembles to ensure they are asymptotically unbiased for the Bayesian posterior, and (iii) demonstrate and compare the utility of Bayesian approximations through experiments including an investigation into the cold posterior effect and applications with large language models. _**posteriors**_ repository: https://github.com/normal-computing/posteriors

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) has been pivotal for leveraging pre-trained diffusion models in downstream tasks such as inverse problems, but it faces two major challenges: $(i)$ mode collapse and $(ii)$ latent space inversion, which become more pronounced in high-dimensional data. To address mode collapse, we introduce a novel variational framework for posterior sampling. Utilizing the Wasserstein gradient flow interpretation of SDS, we propose a multimodal variational approximation with a \emph{repulsion} mechanism that promotes diversity among particles by penalizing pairwise kernel-based similarity. This repulsion acts as a simple regularizer, encouraging a more diverse set of solutions. To mitigate latent space ambiguity, we extend this framework with an \emph{augmented} variational distribution that disentangles the latent and data. This repulsive augmented formulation balances computational efficiency, quality, and diversity. Extensive experiments on linear and nonlinear inverse tasks with high-resolution images ($512 \times 512$) using pre-trained Stable Diffusion models demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Traditional parameter-space posterior inference for Bayesian neural networks faces several challenges, such as the difficulty in specifying meaningful prior, the potential pathologies in deep models and the intractability for multi-modal posterior. To address these issues, functional variational inference (fVI) and functional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (fMCMC) are two recently emerged Bayesian inference schemes that perform posterior inference directly in function space by incorporating more informative functional priors. Similar to their parameter-space counterparts, fVI and fMCMC have their own strengths and weaknesses. For instance, fVI is computationally efficient but imposes strong distributional assumptions, while fMCMC is asymptotically exact but suffers from slow mixing in high dimensions. To inherit the complementary benefits of both schemes, this work proposes a novel hybrid inference method for functional posterior inference. Specifically, it combines fVI and fMCMC successively by an elaborate linking mechanism to form an alternating approximation process. We also provide theoretical justification for the soundness of such a hybrid inference through the lens of Wasserstein gradient flows in the function space. We evaluate our method on several benchmark tasks and observe improvements in both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to parameter/function-space VI and MCMC.

We study nonmonotone games satisfying the weak Minty variational inequality (MVI) with parameter $\rho \in (-\tfrac{1}{L}, \infty)$, where $L$ is the Lipschitz constant of the gradient operator. An error corrected version of the inexact proximal point algorithm is proposed, with which we establish the first $\mathcal O(1/\epsilon)$ rate for the entire range $\rho \in (-\tfrac{1}{L}, \infty)$, thus removing a logarithmic factor compared with the complexity of existing methods. The scheme automatically selects the needed accuracy for the proximal computation, and can recover the relaxed extragradient method when $\rho > -\tfrac{1}{2L}$ and the relaxed proximal point algorithm (rPPA) when $\rho > -\tfrac{1}{L}$. Due to the error correction, the scheme inherits the strong properties of the _exact_ rPPA. Specifically, we show that linear convergence is automatically achieved under appropriate conditions. Tightness for the range of $\rho$ is established through a lower bound for rPPA. Central to the algorithmic construction is a halfspace projection, where the key insight is that the allowed error tolerance can both be used to correct for the proximal approximation and to enlarge the problem class.

Best-of-N (BoN) is a popular and effective algorithm for aligning language models to human preferences. The algorithm works as follows: at inference time, N samples are drawn from the language model, and the sample with the highest reward, as judged by a reward model, is returned as the output. Despite its effectiveness, BoN is computationally expensive; it reduces sampling throughput by a factor of N. To make BoN more efficient at inference time, one strategy is to fine-tune the language model to mimic what BoN does during inference. To achieve this, we derive the distribution induced by the BoN algorithm. We then propose to fine-tune the language model to minimize backward KL divergence to the BoN distribution. Our approach is analogous to mean-field variational inference and, thus, we term it variational BoN (vBoN). To the extent this fine-tuning is successful and we end up with a good approximation, we have reduced the inference cost by a factor of N. Our experiments on controlled generation and summarization tasks show that BoN is the most effective alignment method, and our variational approximation to BoN achieves the closest performance to BoN and surpasses models fine-tuned using the standard KL-constrained RL objective. In the controlled generation task, vBoN appears more frequently on the Pareto frontier of reward and KL divergence compared to other alignment methods. In the summarization task, vBoN achieves high reward values across various sampling temperatures.

In the wild, we often encounter collections of sequential data such as electrocardiograms, motion capture, genomes, and natural language, and sequences may be multichannel or symbolic with nonlinear dynamics. We introduce a method to learn low-dimensional representations of nonlinear sequence and time-series data without supervision which has provable recovery guarantees. The learned representation can be used for downstream machine-learning tasks such as clustering and classification. The method assumes that the observed sequences arise from a common domain, with each sequence following its own autoregressive model, and these models are related through low-rank regularization. We cast the problem as a convex matrix parameter recovery problem using monotone variational inequalities (VIs) and encode the common domain assumption via low-rank constraint across the learned representations, which can learn a subspace approximately spanning the entire domain as well as faithful representations for the dynamics of each individual sequence incorporating the domain information in totality. We show the competitive performance of our method on real-world time-series data with baselines and demonstrate its effectiveness for symbolic text modeling and RNA sequence clustering.

Quantum machine learning (QML) explores the potential advantages of quantum computers for machine learning tasks, with variational QML among the main current approaches. While quantum computers promise to solve problems that are classically intractable, it has been recently shown that a particular quantum algorithm which outperforms all pre-existing classical algorithms can be matched by a newly developed classical approach (often inspired by the quantum algorithm). We say such algorithms have been dequantized. For QML models to be effective, they must be trainable and non-dequantizable. The relationship between these properties is still not fully understood and recent works raised into question to what extent we could ever have QML models which are both trainable and non-dequantizable. This challenges the potential of QML altogether. In this work we answer open questions regarding when trainability and non-dequantization are compatible. We first formalize the key concepts and put them in the context of prior research. We introduce the role of "variationalness" of QML models using well-known quantum circuit architectures as leading examples. Our results provide recipes for variational QML models that are trainable and non-dequantizable. By ensuring that variational QML models are both trainable and non-dequantizable, we pave the way toward practical relevance.

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption, current state-of-the-art samplers still struggle to navigate the complex and highly multimodal posteriors of BNNs. As a consequence, sampling still requires considerably longer inference times than non-Bayesian methods even for small neural networks, despite recent advances in making software implementations more efficient. Besides the difficulty of finding high-probability regions, the time until samplers provide sufficient exploration of these areas remains unpredictable. To tackle these challenges, we introduce an ensembling approach that leverages strategies from optimization and a recently proposed sampler called Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) for efficient, robust and predictable sampling performance. Compared to approaches based on the state-of-the-art No-U-Turn Sampler, our approach delivers substantial speedups up to an order of magnitude, while maintaining or improving predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across diverse tasks and data modalities. The suggested Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles and modifications to MCLMC additionally enhance the method's predictability in resource requirements, facilitating easier parallelization. All in all, the proposed method offers a promising direction for practical, scalable inference for BNNs.

Estimating a distribution given access to its unnormalized density is pivotal in Bayesian inference, where the posterior is generally known only up to an unknown normalizing constant. Variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are the predominant tools for this task; however, both are often challenging to apply reliably, particularly when the posterior has complex geometry. Here, we introduce Soft Contrastive Variational Inference (SoftCVI), which allows a family of variational objectives to be derived through a contrastive estimation framework. The approach parameterizes a classifier in terms of a variational distribution, reframing the inference task as a contrastive estimation problem aiming to identify a single true posterior sample among a set of samples. Despite this framing, we do not require positive or negative samples, but rather learn by sampling the variational distribution and computing ground truth soft classification labels from the unnormalized posterior itself. The objectives have zero variance gradient when the variational approximation is exact, without the need for specialized gradient estimators. We empirically investigate the performance on a variety of Bayesian inference tasks, using both simple (e.g. normal) and expressive (normalizing flow) variational distributions. We find that SoftCVI can be used to form objectives which are stable to train and mass-covering, frequently outperforming inference with other variational approaches.

Cognition arises from the coordinated interaction of brain regions with distinct computational roles. Despite improvements in our ability to extract the dynamics underlying circuit computation from population activity recorded in individual areas, understanding how multiple areas jointly support distributed computation remains a challenge. As part of this effort, we propose a multi-region neural dynamics model composed of two building blocks: _i)_ within-region (potentially driven) nonlinear dynamics and _ii)_ communication channels between regions, parameterized through their impulse response. Together, these choices make it possible to learn nonlinear neural population dynamics and understand the flow of information between regions by drawing from the rich literature of linear systems theory. We develop a state noise inversion free variational filtering and learning algorithm for our model and show, through neuroscientifically inspired numerical experiments, how the proposed model can reveal interpretable characterizations of the local computations within and the flow of information between neural populations. We further validate the efficacy of our approach using simultaneous population recordings from areas V1 and V2.