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Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is essential for mapping brain activity but faces challenges like lengthy acquisition time and sensitivity to patient movement, limiting its clinical and machine learning applications. While generative models such as diffusion models can synthesize fMRI signals to alleviate these issues, they often underperform due to neglecting the brain's complex structural and dynamic properties. To address these limitations, we propose the Physiological Dynamics-Driven Hierarchical Diffusion Model, a novel framework integrating two key brain physiological properties into the diffusion process: brain hierarchical regional interactions and multifractal dynamics. To model complex interactions among brain regions, we construct hypergraphs based on the prior knowledge of brain functional parcellation reflected by resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC). This enables the aggregation of fMRI signals across multiple scales and generates hierarchical signals. Additionally, by incorporating the prediction of two key dynamics properties of fMRI—the multifractal spectrum and generalized Hurst exponent—our framework effectively guides the diffusion process, ensuring the preservation of the scale-invariant characteristics inherent in real fMRI data. Our framework employs progressive diffusion generation, with signals representing broader brain region information conditioning those that capture localized details, and unifies multiple inputs during denoising for balanced integration. Experiments demonstrate that our model generates physiologically realistic fMRI signals, potentially reducing acquisition time and enhancing data quality, benefiting clinical diagnostics and machine learning in neuroscience.

Time-varying counterfactual prediction (TCP) from observational data supports the answer of when and how to assign multiple sequential treatments, yielding importance in various applications. Despite the progress achieved by recent advances, e.g., LSTM or Transformer based causal approaches, their capability of capturing interactions in long sequences remains to be improved in both prediction performance and running efficiency. In parallel with the development of TCP, the success of the state-space models (SSMs) has achieved remarkable progress toward long-sequence modeling with saved running time. Consequently, studying how Mamba simultaneously benefits the effectiveness and efficiency of TCP becomes a compelling research direction. In this paper, we propose to exploit advantages of the SSMs to tackle the TCP task, by introducing a counterfactual Mamba model with Covariate-based Decorrelation towards Selective Parameters (Mamba-CDSP). Motivated by the over-balancing problem in TCP of the direct covariate balancing methods, we propose to de-correlate between the current treatment and the representation of historical covariates, treatments, and outcomes, which can mitigate the confounding bias while preserve more covariate information. In addition, we show that the overall de-correlation in TCP is equivalent to regularizing the selective parameters of Mamba over each time step, which leads our approach to be effective and lightweight. We conducted extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that Mamba-CDSP not only outperforms baselines by a large margin, but also exhibits prominent running efficiency.

To deliver high-quality, personalized responses, large language models (LLMs) must effectively incorporate context — personal, demographic, and cultural information specific to an end-user. For example, asking the model to explain Newton's second law with the context "I am a toddler'' should produce a response different from when the context is "I am a physics professor''. However, leveraging the context in practice is a nuanced and challenging task, and is often dependent on the specific situation or user base. The model must strike a balance between providing specific, personalized responses and maintaining general applicability. Current solutions, such as prompt-engineering and fine-tuning, require collection of contextually appropriate responses as examples, making them time-consuming and less flexible to use across different contexts. In this work, we introduce Context Steering (CoS) —a simple, training-free decoding approach that amplifies the influence of the context in next token predictions. CoS computes contextual influence by comparing the output probabilities from two LLM forward passes: one that includes the context and one that does not. By linearly scaling the contextual influence, CoS allows practitioners to flexibly control the degree of personalization for different use cases. We show that CoS can be applied to autoregressive LLMs, and demonstrates strong performance in personalized recommendations. Additionally, we show that CoS can function as a Bayesian Generative model to infer and quantify correlations between open-ended texts, broadening its potential applications.

Missing data imputation through distribution alignment has demonstrated advantages for non-temporal datasets but exhibits suboptimal performance in time-series applications. The primary obstacle is crafting a discrepancy measure that simultaneously (1) captures temporal patterns—accounting for periodicity and temporal dependencies inherent in time-series—and (2) accommodates non-stationarity, ensuring robustness amidst multiple coexisting temporal patterns. In response to these challenges, we introduce the Proximal Spectrum Wasserstein (PSW) discrepancy, a novel discrepancy tailored for comparing two \textit{sets} of time-series based on optimal transport. It incorporates a pairwise spectral distance to encapsulate temporal patterns, and a selective matching regularization to accommodate non-stationarity. Subsequently, we develop the PSW for Imputation (PSW-I) framework, which iteratively refines imputation results by minimizing the PSW discrepancy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PSW-I effectively accommodates temporal patterns and non-stationarity, outperforming prevailing time-series imputation methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FMLYD/PSW-I.

Causal discovery, or identifying causal relationships from observational data, is a notoriously challenging task, with numerous methods proposed to tackle it. Despite this, in-the-wild evaluation of these methods is still lacking, as works frequently rely on synthetic data evaluation and sparse real-world examples under critical theoretical assumptions. Real-world causal structures, however, are often complex, evolving over time, non-linear, and influenced by unobserved factors, making it hard to decide on a proper causal discovery strategy. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalRivers, the largest in-the-wild causal discovery benchmarking kit for time-series data to date. CausalRivers features an extensive dataset on river discharge that covers the eastern German territory (666 measurement stations) and the state of Bavaria (494 measurement stations). It spans the years 2019 to 2023 with a 15-minute temporal resolution. Further, we provide additional data from a flood around the Elbe River, as an event with a pronounced distributional shift. Leveraging multiple sources of information and time-series meta-data, we constructed two distinct causal ground truth graphs (Bavaria and eastern Germany). These graphs can be sampled to generate thousands of subgraphs to benchmark causal discovery across diverse and challenging settings. To demonstrate the utility of CausalRivers, we evaluate several causal discovery approaches through a set of experiments to identify areas for improvement. CausalRivers has the potential to facilitate robust evaluations and comparisons of causal discovery methods. Besides this primary purpose, we also expect that this dataset will be relevant for connected areas of research, such as time-series forecasting and anomaly detection. Based on this, we hope to push benchmark-driven method development that fosters advanced techniques for causal discovery, as is the case for many other areas of machine learning.

This paper presents a novel approach to address the challenge of online sequence learning for decision making under uncertainty in non-stationary, partially observable environments. The proposed algorithm, Distributed Hebbian Temporal Memory (DHTM), is based on the factor graph formalism and a multi-component neuron model. DHTM aims to capture sequential data relationships and make cumulative predictions about future observations, forming Successor Features (SFs). Inspired by neurophysiological models of the neocortex, the algorithm uses distributed representations, sparse transition matrices, and local Hebbian-like learning rules to overcome the instability and slow learning of traditional temporal memory algorithms such as RNN and HMM. Experimental results show that DHTM outperforms LSTM, RWKV and a biologically inspired HMM-like algorithm, CSCG, on non-stationary data sets. Our results suggest that DHTM is a promising approach to address the challenges of online sequence learning and planning in dynamic environments.

Real-world time series often have multiple frequency components that are intertwined with each other, making accurate time series forecasting challenging. Decomposing the mixed frequency components into multiple single frequency components is a natural choice. However, the information density of patterns varies across different frequencies, and employing a uniform modeling approach for different frequency components can lead to inaccurate characterization. To address this challenges, inspired by the flexibility of the recent Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN), we propose a KAN-based Frequency Decomposition Learning architecture (TimeKAN) to address the complex forecasting challenges caused by multiple frequency mixtures. Specifically, TimeKAN mainly consists of three components: Cascaded Frequency Decomposition (CFD) blocks, Multi-order KAN Representation Learning (M-KAN) blocks and Frequency Mixing blocks. CFD blocks adopt a bottom-up cascading approach to obtain series representations for each frequency band. Benefiting from the high flexibility of KAN, we design a novel M-KAN block to learn and represent specific temporal patterns within each frequency band. Finally, Frequency Mixing blocks is used to recombine the frequency bands into the original format. Extensive experimental results across multiple real-world time series datasets demonstrate that TimeKAN achieves state-of-the-art performance as an extremely lightweight architecture. Code is available at https://github.com/huangst21/TimeKAN.

Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based models on a simple, fixed prior complicates the generative process since the data and prior distributions differ significantly. We introduce TSFlow, a conditional flow matching (CFM) model for time series combining Gaussian processes, optimal transport paths, and data-dependent prior distributions. By incorporating (conditional) Gaussian processes, TSFlow aligns the prior distribution more closely with the temporal structure of the data, enhancing both unconditional and conditional generation. Furthermore, we propose conditional prior sampling to enable probabilistic forecasting with an unconditionally trained model. In our experimental evaluation on eight real-world datasets, we demonstrate the generative capabilities of TSFlow, producing high-quality unconditional samples. Finally, we show that both conditionally and unconditionally trained models achieve competitive results across multiple forecasting benchmarks.

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as the recently developed Ensemble Score Filters (EnSF) face significant challenges when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear Bayesian filtering problems with sparse observations, which are ubiquitous in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a novel data assimilation method, Latent-EnSF, which leverages EnSF with efficient and consistent latent representations of the full states and sparse observations to address the joint challenges of high dimensionlity in states and high sparsity in observations for nonlinear Bayesian filtering. We introduce a coupled Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with two encoders to encode the full states and sparse observations in a consistent way guaranteed by a latent distribution matching and regularization as well as a consistent state reconstruction. With comparison to several methods, we demonstrate the higher accuracy, faster convergence, and higher efficiency of Latent-EnSF for two challenging applications with complex models in shallow water wave propagation and medium-range weather forecasting, for highly sparse observations in both space and time.

The emerging zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to their applications in areas extending well beyond natural language processing tasks. In reinforcement learning, while LLMs have been extensively used in text-based environments, their integration with continuous state spaces remains understudied. In this paper, we investigate how pre-trained LLMs can be leveraged to predict in context the dynamics of continuous Markov decision processes. We identify handling multivariate data and incorporating the control signal as key challenges that limit the potential of LLMs' deployment in this setup and propose Disentangled In-Context Learning (DICL) to address them. We present proof-of-concept applications in two reinforcement learning settings: model-based policy evaluation and data-augmented off-policy reinforcement learning, supported by theoretical analysis of the proposed methods. Our experiments further demonstrate that our approach produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/dicl.

Autoregressive (AR) Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant success across numerous tasks. However, the AR modeling paradigm presents certain limitations; for instance, contemporary autoregressive LLMs are trained to generate one token at a time, which can result in noticeable latency. Recent advances have indicated that search and repeated sampling can enhance performance in various applications, such as theorem proving, code generation, and alignment, by utilizing greater computational resources during inference. In this study, we demonstrate that diffusion language models are capable of generating at least 32 tokens simultaneously, while exceeding the performance of AR models in text quality and on the LAMBADA natural language understanding benchmark. This outcome is achieved through a novel distillation method for discrete diffusion models, which reduces the number of inference steps by a factor of 32-64. Practically, at the 1.3B parameters scale, diffusion models, even without caching, can generate tokens at a rate that is up to 8 times faster than AR models employing KV-caching, and we anticipate further improvements with the inclusion of caching. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for diffusion language models with up to 860M parameters.

Metriplectic systems are learned from data in a way that scales quadratically in both the size of the state and the rank of the metriplectic operators. In addition to being provably energy-conserving and entropy-stable, the proposed neural metriplectic systems (NMS) approach includes approximation results that demonstrate its ability to accurately learn metriplectic dynamics from data, along with an error estimate that indicates its potential for generalization to unseen timescales when the approximation error is low. Examples are provided to illustrate performance both with full state information available and when entropic variables are unknown, confirming that the NMS approach exhibits superior accuracy and scalability without compromising on model expressivity.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures—encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers—and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has been challenging to scale to time series data. Scientific simulators frequently emulate real-world dynamics through thousands of single-state transitions over time. We propose an SBI approach that can exploit such Markovian simulators by locally identifying parameters consistent with individual state transitions. We then compose these local results to obtain a posterior over parameters that align with the entire time series observation. We focus on applying this approach to neural posterior score estimation but also show how it can be applied, e.g., to neural likelihood (ratio) estimation. We demonstrate that our approach is more simulation-efficient than directly estimating the global posterior on several synthetic benchmark tasks and simulators used in ecology and epidemiology. Finally, we validate scalability and simulation efficiency of our approach by applying it to a high-dimensional Kolmogorov flow simulator with around one million data dimensions.

Despite significant progress in Anomaly Detection (AD), the robustness of existing detection methods against adversarial attacks remains a challenge, compromising their reliability in critical real-world applications such as autonomous driving. This issue primarily arises from the AD setup, which assumes that training data is limited to a group of unlabeled normal samples, making the detectors vulnerable to adversarial anomaly samples during testing. Additionally, implementing adversarial training as a safeguard encounters difficulties, such as formulating an effective objective function without access to labels. An ideal objective function for adversarial training in AD should promote strong perturbations both within and between the normal and anomaly groups to maximize margin between normal and anomaly distribution. To address these issues, we first propose crafting a pseudo-anomaly group derived from normal group samples. Then, we demonstrate that adversarial training with contrastive loss could serve as an ideal objective function, as it creates both inter- and intra-group perturbations. However, we notice that spurious negative pairs compromise the conventional contrastive loss for achieving robust AD. Spurious negative pairs are those that should be mapped closely but are erroneously separated. These pairs introduce noise and misguide the direction of inter-group adversarial perturbations. To overcome the effect of spurious negative pairs, we define opposite pairs and adversarially pull them apart to strengthen inter-group perturbations. Experimental results demonstrate our superior performance in both clean and adversarial scenarios, with a 26.1% improvement in robust detection across various challenging benchmark datasets.

Last-iterate convergence behaviours of well-known algorithms are intensively investigated in various games, such as two-player bilinear zero-sum games. However, most known last-iterate convergence properties rely on strict settings where the underlying games must have time-invariant payoffs. Besides, the limited known attempts on the games with time-varying payoffs are in two-player bilinear time-varying zero-sum games and strictly monotone games. By contrast, in other time-varying games, the last-iterate behaviours of two classic algorithms, i.e., extra gradient (EG) and optimistic gradient (OG) algorithms, still lack research, especially the convergence rates in multi-player games. In this paper, we investigate the last-iterate behaviours of EG and OG algorithms for convergent perturbed games, which extend upon the usual model of time-invariant games and incorporate external factors, such as vanishing noises. Using the recently proposed notion of the tangent residual (or its modifications) as the potential function of games and the measure of proximity to the Nash equilibrium, we prove that the last-iterate convergence rates of EG and OG algorithms for perturbed games on bounded convex closed sets are $O({1}/{\sqrt{T}})$ if such games converge to monotone games at rates fast enough and that such a result holds true for certain unconstrained perturbed games. With this result, we address an open question asking for the last-iterate convergence rate of EG and OG algorithms in constrained and time-varying settings. The above convergence rates are similar to known tight results on corresponding time-invariant games.

Recently, leveraging pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for time series (TS) tasks has gained increasing attention, which involves activating and enhancing LLMs' capabilities. Many methods aim to activate LLMs' capabilities based on token-level alignment, but overlook LLMs' inherent strength in natural language processing — their deep understanding of linguistic logic and structure rather than superficial embedding processing. We propose Context-Alignment (CA), a new paradigm that aligns TS with a linguistic component in the language environments familiar to LLMs to enable LLMs to contextualize and comprehend TS data, thereby activating their capabilities. Specifically, such context-level alignment comprises structural alignment and logical alignment, which is achieved by Dual-Scale Context-Alignment GNNs (DSCA-GNNs) applied to TS-language multimodal inputs. Structural alignment utilizes dual-scale nodes to describe hierarchical structure in TS-language, enabling LLMs to treat long TS data as a whole linguistic component while preserving intrinsic token features. Logical alignment uses directed edges to guide logical relationships, ensuring coherence in the contextual semantics. Following the DSCA-GNNs framework, we propose an instantiation method of CA, termed Few-Shot prompting Context-Alignment (FSCA), to enhance the capabilities of pre-trained LLMs in handling TS tasks. FSCA can be flexibly and repeatedly integrated into various layers of pre-trained LLMs to improve awareness of logic and structure, thereby enhancing performance. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of FSCA and the importance of Context-Alignment across tasks, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot forecasting, confirming that Context-Alignment provides powerful prior knowledge on context. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/tokaka22/ICLR25-FSCA.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer a promising, biologically inspired approach for processing spatiotemporal data, particularly for time series forecasting. However, conventional neuron models like the Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) struggle to capture long-term dependencies and effectively process multi-scale temporal dynamics. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Temporal Segment Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (TS-LIF) model, featuring a novel dual-compartment architecture. The dendritic and somatic compartments specialize in capturing distinct frequency components, providing functional heterogeneity that enhances the neuron's ability to process both low- and high-frequency information. Furthermore, the newly introduced direct somatic current injection reduces information loss during intra-neuronal transmission, while dendritic spike generation improves multi-scale information extraction. We provide a theoretical stability analysis of the TS-LIF model and explain how each compartment contributes to distinct frequency response characteristics. Experimental results show that TS-LIF outperforms traditional SNNs in time series forecasting, demonstrating better accuracy and robustness, even with missing data. TS-LIF advances the application of SNNs in time-series forecasting, providing a biologically inspired approach that captures complex temporal dynamics and offers potential for practical implementation in diverse forecasting scenarios.

Predicting and executing a sequence of actions without intermediate replanning, known as action chunking, is increasingly used in robot learning from human demonstrations. Yet, its effects on the learned policy remain inconsistent: some studies find it crucial for achieving strong results, while others observe decreased performance. In this paper, we first dissect how action chunking impacts the divergence between a learner and a demonstrator. We find that action chunking allows the learner to better capture the temporal dependencies in demonstrations but at the cost of reduced reactivity to unexpected states. To address this tradeoff, we propose Bidirectional Decoding (BID), a test-time inference algorithm that bridges action chunking with closed-loop adaptation. At each timestep, BID samples multiple candidate predictions and searches for the optimal one based on two criteria: (i) backward coherence, which favors samples that align with previous decisions; (ii) forward contrast, which seeks samples of high likelihood for future plans. By coupling decisions within and across action chunks, BID promotes both long-term consistency and short-term reactivity. Experimental results show that our method boosts the performance of two state-of-the-art generative policies across seven simulation benchmarks and two real-world tasks. Code and videos are available at https://bid-robot.github.io.

Diffusion models have achieved great success in generating high-dimensional samples across various applications. While the theoretical guarantees for continuous-state diffusion models have been extensively studied, the convergence analysis of the discrete-state counterparts remains under-explored. In this paper, we study the theoretical aspects of score-based discrete diffusion models under the Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) framework. We introduce a discrete-time sampling algorithm in the general state space $[S]^d$ that utilizes score estimators at predefined time points. We derive convergence bounds for the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and total variation (TV) distance between the generated sample distribution and the data distribution, considering both scenarios with and without early stopping under reasonable assumptions. Notably, our KL divergence bounds are nearly linear in the dimension $d$, aligning with state-of-the-art results for diffusion models. Our convergence analysis employs a Girsanov-based method and establishes key properties of the discrete score function, which are essential for characterizing the discrete-time sampling process.