风险建模

The legality of training language models (LMs) on copyrighted or otherwise restricted data is under intense debate. However, as we show, model performance significantly degrades if trained only on low-risk text (e.g., out-of-copyright books or government documents), due to its limited size and domain coverage. We present SILO, a new language model that manages this risk-performance tradeoff during inference. SILO is built by (1) training a parametric LM on the Open License Corpus (OLC), a new corpus we curate with 228B tokens of public domain and permissively licensed text and (2) augmenting it with a more general and easily modifiable nonparametric datastore (e.g., containing copyrighted books or news) that is only queried during inference. The datastore allows use of high-risk data without training on it, supports sentence-level data attribution, and enables data producers to opt out from the model by removing content from the store. These capabilities can foster compliance with data-use regulations such as the fair use doctrine in the United States and the GDPR in the European Union. Our experiments show that the parametric LM struggles on its own with domains not covered by OLC. However, access to the datastore greatly improves out of domain performance, closing 90% of the performance gap with an LM trained on the Pile, a more diverse corpus with mostly high-risk text. We also analyze which nonparametric approach works best, where the remaining errors lie, and how performance scales with datastore size. Our results suggest that it is possible to build high quality language models while mitigating legal risk.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best $F_1$-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result in tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Research on optimizing the risk measure of a blackbox function using Gaussian processes, especially Bayesian optimization (BO) of risk measures, has become increasingly important due to the inevitable presence of uncontrollable variables in real-world applications. Nevertheless, existing works on BO of risk measures start the optimization from scratch for every new task without considering the results of prior tasks. In contrast, its vanilla BO counterpart has received a thorough investigation on utilizing prior tasks to speed up the current task through the body of works on meta-BO which, however, have not considered risk measures. To bridge this gap, this paper presents the first algorithm for meta-BO of risk measures (i.e., value-at-risk (VaR) and the conditional VaR), namely meta-VBO, by introducing a novel adjustment to the upper confidence bound acquisition function. Our proposed algorithm exhibits two desirable properties: (i) invariance to scaling and vertical shifting of the blackbox function and (ii) robustness to prior harmful tasks. We provide a theoretical performance guarantee for our algorithm and empirically demonstrate its performance using several synthetic function benchmarks and real-world objective functions.

With the explosion of the zero-shot capabilities of (and thus interest in) pre-trained large language models, there has come accompanying interest in how best to prompt a language model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to choose a prompt based on empirical results on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where an unexpectedly high loss occurs. To mitigate this prospect, we propose a lightweight framework, Prompt Risk Control, for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We provide and compare different methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of risk metrics like mean, CVaR, and the Gini coefficient of the loss distribution. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Extensive experiments on high-impact applications like chatbots, medical question answering, and news summarization highlight why such a framework is necessary to reduce exposure to the worst outcomes.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.