Risk Modeling papers, 2023–2026

Key findings

• Risk Modeling went from 15 papers in 2023 to 48 in 2026, roughly 3.2x in three years.
• NeurIPS publishes the most Risk Modeling work: 47 papers from 2023 to 2026, 41% of the four-venue total.
• The fastest-growing overlap is with Reinforcement Learning: papers tagged with both rose from 4 in 2023 to 12 in 2026.
• Among the 5 topics under Finance and Economics, it ranks #1 by 2026 paper count; the fastest grower in the group, Macro Forecasting, is up 8.0x versus 3.2x here.

Representative papers

Spread across years and venues so every edition shows up

• NeurIPS 2026CCTimeBoost: Learning Time-Varying Relative Risk with Case-Control Boosted Trees
• ICML 2026A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index
• ICLR 2026SAFER: Risk-Constrained Sample-then-Filter in Large Language Models
• CVPR 2026Spectral Conformal Risk Control Distribution-Free Tail Guarantees via Bayesian Quadrature
• NeurIPS 2025Generating Informative Samples for Risk-Averse Fine-Tuning of Downstream Tasks
• ICML 2025Compositional Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2025Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering
• NeurIPS 2024Evaluating language models as risk scores
• ICML 2024Differentially Private Worst-group Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2024SILO Language Models: Isolating Legal Risk In a Nonparametric Datastore
• CVPR 2024Self-Calibrating Vicinal Risk Minimisation for Model Calibration
• NeurIPS 2023Optimal Excess Risk Bounds for Empirical Risk Minimization on $p$-Norm Linear Regression
• ICML 2023Fast Excess Risk Rates via Offset Rademacher Complexity
• ICLR 2023Avoiding spurious correlations via logit correction
• NeurIPS 2026Hidden Tails: Certifying Tail-Risk Claims under Selective Labels
• ICML 2026Disentangling Latent Risk Pathways via Bayesian Hypergraph Inference
• ICLR 2026Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment
• CVPR 2026CoRiM Conflict-driven Risk Minimization for Dynamic Multimodal Fusion
• NeurIPS 2025Risk Bounds For Distributional Regression
• ICML 2025Structure-informed Risk Minimization for Robust Ensemble Learning

All Risk Modeling papers

38 papers, page 1 of 1

1. ICML 2026A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index
2. ICML 2026Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference
3. ICML 2026Correcting Overparameterization Effects in Fair Empirical Risk Minimization
4. ICML 2026Decomposition-Based Modular Conformal Prediction for Two-Stage Modeling
5. ICML 2026Disentangling Latent Risk Pathways via Bayesian Hypergraph Inference
6. ICML 2026Estimating Tail Risks in Language Model Output Distributions
7. ICML 2026Learning Anisotropic Value Geometry with Finsler Reinforcement Learning
8. ICML 2026New Wide-Net-Casting Jailbreak Attacks Risk Large Models
9. ICML 2026Non-Parametric Probabilistic Robustness: A Conservative Risk Estimator under Unknown Perturbation Distributions
10. ICML 2026Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Feedback
11. ICML 2026PathwayLLM: Explainable Clinical Trajectory Modeling with Structured Pathways for Sepsis Prediction
12. ICML 2026Reward Redistribution for CVaR MDPs using a Bellman Operator on L-infinity
13. ICML 2026RiskZero: Plan More to Risk Less with a Learned Model
14. ICML 2026Why ReLU? A Bit-Model Dichotomy for Deep Network Training
15. ICML 2025A Reductions Approach to Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents
16. ICML 2025Compositional Risk Minimization
17. ICML 2025Hypothesis Testing for Generalized Thurstone Models
18. ICML 2025Nearly Optimal Sample Complexity for Learning with Label Proportions
19. ICML 2025Position: Humanity Faces Existential Risk from Gradual Disempowerment
20. ICML 2025Quantifying Treatment Effects: Estimating Risk Ratios via Observational Studies
21. ICML 2025QuEst: Enhancing Estimates of Quantile-Based Distributional Measures Using Model Predictions
22. ICML 2025Structure-informed Risk Minimization for Robust Ensemble Learning
23. ICML 2024Bounding the Excess Risk for Linear Models Trained on Marginal-Preserving, Differentially-Private, Synthetic Data
24. ICML 2024Differentially Private Worst-group Risk Minimization
25. ICML 2024Invariant Risk Minimization Is A Total Variation Model
26. ICML 2024On the Asymptotic Distribution of the Minimum Empirical Risk
27. ICML 2024Pessimism Meets Risk: Risk-Sensitive Offline Reinforcement Learning
28. ICML 2024Position: Enforced Amnesia as a Way to Mitigate the Potential Risk of Silent Suffering in the Conscious AI
29. ICML 2024Provably Efficient Partially Observable Risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Hindsight Observation
30. ICML 2024Risk Aware Benchmarking of Large Language Models
31. ICML 2024Risk-Sensitive Reward-Free Reinforcement Learning with CVaR
32. ICML 2024Stereo Risk: A Continuous Modeling Approach to Stereo Matching
33. ICML 2023Evaluating Self-Supervised Learning via Risk Decomposition
34. ICML 2023Fast Excess Risk Rates via Offset Rademacher Complexity
35. ICML 2023How to address monotonicity for model risk management?
36. ICML 2023How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control
37. ICML 2023Near-Minimax-Optimal Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with CVaR
38. ICML 2023On the Global Convergence of Risk-Averse Policy Gradient Methods with Expected Conditional Risk Measures

FAQ

How many Risk Modeling papers were published at NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML and CVPR from 2023 to 2026?

115 in total: 15 in 2023, 26 in 2024, 26 in 2025, 48 in 2026.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at NeurIPS 2026?

NeurIPS 2026 has 25 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICLR 2026?

ICLR 2026 has 6 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICML 2026?

ICML 2026 has 14 Risk Modeling papers, versus 8 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at CVPR 2026?

CVPR 2026 has 3 Risk Modeling papers.

Which conference publishes the most Risk Modeling papers?

NeurIPS, with 47 papers from 2023 to 2026.