Risk Modeling papers, 2023–2026

Key findings

• Risk Modeling went from 15 papers in 2023 to 48 in 2026, roughly 3.2x in three years.
• NeurIPS publishes the most Risk Modeling work: 47 papers from 2023 to 2026, 41% of the four-venue total.
• The fastest-growing overlap is with Reinforcement Learning: papers tagged with both rose from 4 in 2023 to 12 in 2026.
• Among the 5 topics under Finance and Economics, it ranks #1 by 2026 paper count; the fastest grower in the group, Macro Forecasting, is up 8.0x versus 3.2x here.

Representative papers

Spread across years and venues so every edition shows up

• NeurIPS 2026CCTimeBoost: Learning Time-Varying Relative Risk with Case-Control Boosted Trees
• ICML 2026A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index
• ICLR 2026SAFER: Risk-Constrained Sample-then-Filter in Large Language Models
• CVPR 2026Spectral Conformal Risk Control Distribution-Free Tail Guarantees via Bayesian Quadrature
• NeurIPS 2025Generating Informative Samples for Risk-Averse Fine-Tuning of Downstream Tasks
• ICML 2025Compositional Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2025Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering
• NeurIPS 2024Evaluating language models as risk scores
• ICML 2024Differentially Private Worst-group Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2024SILO Language Models: Isolating Legal Risk In a Nonparametric Datastore
• CVPR 2024Self-Calibrating Vicinal Risk Minimisation for Model Calibration
• NeurIPS 2023Optimal Excess Risk Bounds for Empirical Risk Minimization on $p$-Norm Linear Regression
• ICML 2023Fast Excess Risk Rates via Offset Rademacher Complexity
• ICLR 2023Avoiding spurious correlations via logit correction
• NeurIPS 2026Hidden Tails: Certifying Tail-Risk Claims under Selective Labels
• ICML 2026Disentangling Latent Risk Pathways via Bayesian Hypergraph Inference
• ICLR 2026Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment
• CVPR 2026CoRiM Conflict-driven Risk Minimization for Dynamic Multimodal Fusion
• NeurIPS 2025Risk Bounds For Distributional Regression
• ICML 2025Structure-informed Risk Minimization for Robust Ensemble Learning

All Risk Modeling papers

115 papers, page 2 of 3

51. ICLR 2025From Risk to Uncertainty: Generating Predictive Uncertainty Measures via Bayesian Estimation
52. ICLR 2025Generalizability of Neural Networks Minimizing Empirical Risk Based on Expressive Power
53. ICLR 2025Group Distributionally Robust Dataset Distillation with Risk Minimization
54. ICLR 2025Model Risk-sensitive Offline Reinforcement Learning
55. ICLR 2025Out-of-distribution Generalization for Total Variation based Invariant Risk Minimization
56. ICLR 2025Rare event modeling with self-regularized normalizing flows: what can we learn from a single failure?
57. ICLR 2025Risk-Sensitive Diffusion: Robustly Optimizing Diffusion Models with Noisy Samples
58. ICML 2025A Reductions Approach to Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents
59. ICML 2025Compositional Risk Minimization
60. ICML 2025Hypothesis Testing for Generalized Thurstone Models
61. ICML 2025Nearly Optimal Sample Complexity for Learning with Label Proportions
62. ICML 2025Position: Humanity Faces Existential Risk from Gradual Disempowerment
63. ICML 2025Quantifying Treatment Effects: Estimating Risk Ratios via Observational Studies
64. ICML 2025QuEst: Enhancing Estimates of Quantile-Based Distributional Measures Using Model Predictions
65. ICML 2025Structure-informed Risk Minimization for Robust Ensemble Learning
66. NeurIPS 2025Establishing Linear Surrogate Regret Bounds for Convex Smooth Losses via Convolutional Fenchel–Young Losses
67. NeurIPS 2025Generating Informative Samples for Risk-Averse Fine-Tuning of Downstream Tasks
68. NeurIPS 2025Pareto Optimal Risk-Agnostic Distributional Bandits with Heavy-Tail Rewards
69. NeurIPS 2025Performative Risk Control: Calibrating Models for Reliable Deployment under Performativity
70. NeurIPS 2025Risk Bounds For Distributional Regression
71. NeurIPS 2025Risk-Averse Constrained Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents
72. NeurIPS 2025Risk-Averse Total-Reward Reinforcement Learning
73. NeurIPS 2025Subsampled Ensemble Can Improve Generalization Tail Exponentially
74. NeurIPS 2025Towards Evaluating Proactive Risk Awareness of Multimodal Language Models
75. CVPR 2024PoseIRM: Enhance 3D Human Pose Estimation on Unseen Camera Settings via Invariant Risk Minimization
76. CVPR 2024Seeing Unseen: Discover Novel Biomedical Concepts via Geometry-Constrained Probabilistic Modeling
77. CVPR 2024Self-Calibrating Vicinal Risk Minimisation for Model Calibration
78. CVPR 2024Task-Driven Wavelets using Constrained Empirical Risk Minimization
79. CVPR 2024XFibrosis: Explicit Vessel-Fiber Modeling for Fibrosis Staging from Liver Pathology Images
80. ICLR 2024Conformal Risk Control
81. ICLR 2024Meta-VBO: Utilizing Prior Tasks in Optimizing Risk Measures with Gaussian Processes
82. ICLR 2024Non-Exchangeable Conformal Risk Control
83. ICLR 2024Prompt Risk Control: A Rigorous Framework for Responsible Deployment of Large Language Models
84. ICLR 2024SILO Language Models: Isolating Legal Risk In a Nonparametric Datastore
85. ICML 2024Bounding the Excess Risk for Linear Models Trained on Marginal-Preserving, Differentially-Private, Synthetic Data
86. ICML 2024Differentially Private Worst-group Risk Minimization
87. ICML 2024Invariant Risk Minimization Is A Total Variation Model
88. ICML 2024On the Asymptotic Distribution of the Minimum Empirical Risk
89. ICML 2024Pessimism Meets Risk: Risk-Sensitive Offline Reinforcement Learning
90. ICML 2024Position: Enforced Amnesia as a Way to Mitigate the Potential Risk of Silent Suffering in the Conscious AI
91. ICML 2024Provably Efficient Partially Observable Risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Hindsight Observation
92. ICML 2024Risk Aware Benchmarking of Large Language Models
93. ICML 2024Risk-Sensitive Reward-Free Reinforcement Learning with CVaR
94. ICML 2024Stereo Risk: A Continuous Modeling Approach to Stereo Matching
95. NeurIPS 2024$\epsilon$-Softmax: Approximating One-Hot Vectors for Mitigating Label Noise
96. NeurIPS 2024Evaluating language models as risk scores
97. NeurIPS 2024Fast yet Safe: Early-Exiting with Risk Control
98. NeurIPS 2024Risk-sensitive control as inference with Rényi divergence
99. NeurIPS 2024Spectral-Risk Safe Reinforcement Learning with Convergence Guarantees
100. NeurIPS 2024Universal Rates of Empirical Risk Minimization

FAQ

How many Risk Modeling papers were published at NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML and CVPR from 2023 to 2026?

115 in total: 15 in 2023, 26 in 2024, 26 in 2025, 48 in 2026.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at NeurIPS 2026?

NeurIPS 2026 has 25 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICLR 2026?

ICLR 2026 has 6 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICML 2026?

ICML 2026 has 14 Risk Modeling papers, versus 8 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at CVPR 2026?

CVPR 2026 has 3 Risk Modeling papers.

Which conference publishes the most Risk Modeling papers?

NeurIPS, with 47 papers from 2023 to 2026.