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Search papers from 30+ top conferences, including NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, CVPR, ACL and AAAI. Filter by keyword, then open any paper for its abstract, authors and links.

arXiv

Unequal Verdicts: Investigating Gender Bias in LLM-Based Fake News Detection

Razieh Chalehchaleh, Reza Farahbakhsh, Noel Crespi

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for automated fact-checking, yet their susceptibility to gender bias in this context remains underexplored. This study presents the first systematic investigation of gender bias in LLM-based fake news detection using real-world data. We augment the LIAR benchmark with three gender variants of speaker job titles (Neutral, Male, Female) for each statement to test whether veracity judgments vary solely based on gender presentation. Six state-of-the-art LLMs are evaluated across multiple bias and fairness metrics. All models exhibit gender sensitivity: 9.79%-35.13% of statements receive inconsistent labels across the three variants, with Male-Female comparisons showing 6.5%-23.6% flip rates. Two primary bias manifestations are identified: instability (inconsistent judgments) and directionality (systematic favoritism). Five models show statistically significant directional effects, with the strongest effects displaying male-skeptic patterns. These findings demonstrate that gender bias undermines both reliability and fairness in LLM-based fake news detection, highlighting the need for bias-aware evaluation and mitigation strategies. The augmented dataset is publicly released to support future research.

arXiv

A Security-Oriented Lifecycle Model for Large Language Model Systems

Eleftherios Batzolis, George Drosatos, Vassilis Katsouros, Konstantinos Rantos

Large language models are being integrated into critical infrastructure and enterprise workflows at unprecedented scale,yet the lifecycle frameworks governing their development and operations were designed for operational efficiency rather than security analysis. As a result, security-relevant activities such as data provenance verification, artifact signing, agentic permission control, and decommissioning are often left implicit or assumed to receive due care. Governance frameworks, in turn, organise requirements around risk levels or management processes without clearly linking them to the lifecycle stages where they apply. This paper addresses both deficiencies. We propose a lifecycle model for LLM systems that supports security analysis by structuring it around security-relevant boundaries rather than workflow optimisation. The model comprises 32 stages across four core pipeline layers (Data, Model, Distribution, Application), supported by a 12-stage LLMOps pillar and a 9-category governance pillar. Thirteen stages are introduced here as separate units because they expose distinct security concerns that existing frameworks do not clearly distinguish. A governance mapping synthesising the NIST AI RMF, the EU AI Act, and ISO/IEC 42001 reveals a structural property of the current regulatory landscape: governance evidence concentrates at deployment-facing stages, where systems are visible to regulators, while the most consequential decisions, data selection, alignment strategy, and capability boundaries, are made at development-facing stages, where regulatory visibility is lowest.

arXiv

Formal Verification of Agentic Systems over Operational Data

Alejandro J. Mercado, Alessio Lomuscio

Agentic systems driven by large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world workflows where they act on persistent operational data. Before deployment, these systems need to be verified against business requirements that govern workflow execution and data evolution. However, existing approaches do not provide such system-level guarantees, as they mainly constrain or analyse behaviour at the agent's interface level. We study here the verification of agentic systems comprising a single LLM and a tool orchestration harness over relational operational data. We formalise them as Stateful Tool-Enabled Agentic Deployments (STEADs), give their semantics, define the problem of verifying them against First-Order Computation Tree Logic (FO-CTL) specifications, and show that it is undecidable. We identify sufficient conditions for exact preservation of FO-CTL specifications under a finite-domain restriction, over which verification is PSPACE-complete. The key requirement is that renaming opaque identifiers in the data must correspondingly rename the selected tool calls. We show that LLM-driven agents can violate this condition and introduce a canonical deployment wrapper that guarantees it for arbitrary base agents while preserving already-equivariant behaviour. We prove that computing canonical representations required by this construction is graph-isomorphism-hard. Finally, we illustrate our framework on an LLM agent orchestrating a case-management workflow.

arXiv

FraQ: Efficient Coordinate-Space Recompression for Federated Low-Rank Adaptation

Shenghui Li, Thiemo Voigt

Federated fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) enables efficient collaborative adaptation of Large Language Models (LLMs) without centralizing private data. However, LoRA's two-factor parameterization creates an aggregation mismatch across clients: naively averaging the factors does not recover the average of their induced updates. This mismatch can be avoided by forming the exact aggregate in the full weight space and then recompressing it, but decomposing the resulting dense matrix is computationally expensive and memory-intensive. We propose FraQ, an efficient coordinate-space recompression method for federated LoRA. Starting from stacked factors that exactly represent the aggregate, FraQ factorizes it into an orthonormal basis and a compact coordinate matrix. It then recovers the singular spectrum from a small Gram matrix, selects the smallest rank satisfying a prescribed energy threshold, and maps the selected coordinate subspace back through the basis to construct the global adapter. Experiments on text classification and commonsense reasoning benchmarks show that FraQ achieves accuracy close to uncompressed baselines while substantially reducing downlink communication with low server-side recompression overhead.

arXiv

Large language models for partial differential equation workflows

Han Wan, Rui Zhang, Hao Sun

Partial differential equations (PDEs) become actionable in science and engineering not as isolated formulae, but as executable workflows that connect modelling assumptions, governing equations, numerical solvers, diagnostics, and decisions. Large language models (LLMs) are beginning to support such workflows by linking natural language, symbolic mathematics, code, solver outputs, and feedback. Here we examine recent advances in LLM-assisted PDE research across three stages: the discovery and formulation of governing models, the generation and revision of executable numerical solvers, and the use of simulation feedback to support control, design, and optimization. Across these stages, current systems act primarily as workflow-level interfaces. Despite this progress, the field remains limited by the scarcity of high-quality datasets and benchmarks, especially for knowledge discovery and real-world applications, where expert annotation, executable problem construction, and task-level feedback require substantial domain effort. A further challenge is the persistent gap between simulation-based results and real-world scientific and engineering systems, which limits the direct transfer of numerical simulations, control policies, and optimized designs to practical settings. These challenges make LLM-assisted PDE workflows a critical testbed for developing scientific AI systems that can connect language, computation, physical constraints, and real-world decision-making.

arXiv

DiagChain: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Agents on Evidence-Grounded Attack Chain Reconstruction

Xuyang Liu, Yibin Han, Zhenwei Zhang, Kai Chang, Zhiwei Xu, Tian Qiu, Weixian Deng, Jiabao Gao, Xiaolin Peng, Hai Wan, Xibin Zhao

Large Language Model (LLM) agents offer a promising approach to attack chain reconstruction by retrieving and interpreting heterogeneous telemetry to infer ordered attacker actions. However, existing benchmarks mainly evaluate final outputs or aggregate accuracy, providing limited insight into how errors arise and propagate across intermediate reasoning stages. We present DiagChain, a diagnostic benchmark for evidence-grounded attack chain reconstruction that enables stage-wise evaluation of LLM agents. DiagChain includes MAIN-69, a suite of 69 scenarios spanning multiple operating systems, evidence noise levels, and chain lengths. It further introduces Evidence-Centric Retrieval-Augmented Generation (ECRAG), which couples evidence retrieval with an evolving structured representation of the reconstructed chain. Five complementary metrics are introduced to assess distinct stages of the reconstruction process and support systematic failure diagnosis. Based on evaluations using 6 LLMs, DiagChain reveals that even the strongest configuration succeeds on only 39.6% of the 849 reference steps in MAIN-69. Our analysis further shows that smaller models struggle with the more basic task of incorporating retrieved evidence into their outputs, whereas larger models can proceed to later steps, where correctly ordering that evidence becomes the main bottleneck. These results validate the importance of diagnostic evaluation beyond end-to-end accuracy and provide actionable insights for improving evidence-grounded cybersecurity agents.

arXiv

GenOS: Compositional Certificates for Semantic Robustness in AI Code Generation

Corrado Priami

AI coding agents are stochastic workflows: prompts are interpreted, artifacts are sampled, validators produce observations, and orchestrators commit or repair. Small prompt or specification changes can therefore alter program-behavior distributions even when the texts appear synonymous. Existing systems evaluate correctness, but lack a compositional criterion for safely replacing a prompt, contract, generator, or program inside a complete agentic workflow. We introduce GenOS, a probabilistic operational semantics for this replacement problem. Each layer is modeled as a Markov kernel, and each interface carries an observer-relative equivalence. We prove that equivalence-compatible kernels descend to quotient classes and that quotienting commutes with distributional extension and sequential composition. Hence, equivalent prompts induce equal probabilities for all downstream equivalence-closed events, including verified commit. We also establish workflow bisimulation, guarded-commit safety under sound validation, total-variation non-expansiveness, and an additive robustness bound that attributes approximation error to individual pipeline layers. An executable insertion-sort audit instantiates the theory with natural-language paraphrases, a formal contract, six programs, two observers, and exhaustive execution on 121 inputs. Equivalent prompts yield identical code-class and commit distributions; a prompt assigning 5% probability to an in-place contract is distinguished by a mutation observer, while downstream distances remain within the predicted bound. Across 20,000 randomized finite-kernel trials, no exact or approximate law is violated. GenOS is model-parametric: compatibility is a measurable property to test, not an assumption about language-model behavior.

arXiv

From Social Coding to Agentic Coding: Productivity and Relational Reconfiguration in Open-Source Communities

Mengying Zhou, Yongjie Yin, Yang Chen

Open-source software communities are a form of digital public infrastructure that not only produces code, but also generates public knowledge and interpersonal relationships through visible collaboration. Generative coding agents (CAs) are an advanced tool to improve development efficiency while shifting part of activities from public human interaction to private human-agent loops. We study this shift using an LLM-based multi-agent simulation initialized with real GitHub data from 1,084 active developers and their repository relationships. After a warm-up with historical commits, we branch the same community state into parallel No-CA and CA conditions for 4-week simulations. CA introduction increases planned and completed tasks by 34.0% and 39.0%, respectively, and reduces median completion time from 45 to 20 minutes. However, adoption reaches only 26.0%, and the gains concentrate among developers who are already more active and well connected. CAs also restructure task execution pathways. Direct human-human interaction declines from 32.4% to 11.6%, while CA-involved modes increase to 57.3%, including 40.3% completed through CA-assisted self-loops. Public knowledge generated under CA condition also provides less support for later tasks. On a standardized retrieval benchmark, the CA corpus achieves 22.3% knowledge coverage, far below the 81.1% achieved by the real-human corpus, and requires more retrieval steps with a lower success rate. These results reveal a productivity-public knowledge tension: coding agents increase technical production, but more work shifts to agent-mediated or private loops, leaving public records less useful to future contributors.

arXiv

Policy Fragmentation or Institutional Alignment? Institutional Governance of AI in Universities and Business Schools

Lydia Manikonda, Dominique Outlaw

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming high-skilled domains, requiring higher education institutions (HEI) to balance the teaching of foundational principles with the integration of emerging tools to ensure workforce readiness. While HEI are increasingly adopting AI, many continue to grapple with how it should be incorporated into curricula and governed through policy, especially when such policies are set at different levels of an institution. This research analyzes AI policies across HEI from 34 states in the United States to investigate what these policies entail and how policies set across institutions as well as within different levels at an institution differ. Using natural language processing (NLP) to analyze institutional AI policies, we find a clear divergence: university-level policies emphasize data security and risk mitigation whereas school-level policies, when present, focus on pedagogical applications and tool usage. When focusing on business school specific policies, relatively few business schools maintain AI policies distinct from university frameworks, creating misalignment with discipline-specific learning objectives. This gap poses challenges particularly for faculty and students as well as for accreditation purposes. Our insights suggest that guidelines should be aligned with broader institutional policies while addressing discipline-specific learning objectives and evolving workforce demands.

arXiv

AI-Assisted Peer Review Across Research Communities: From Reviewer AI Policies to LLM Review Quality

Alexander M. Fichtl, Lukas Ellinger, Josefin Kelber, Kryštof Olík, Georg Groh

AI-assisted peer review is increasingly discussed and adopted as a tool to support the scientific publishing process, yet there is little systematic understanding of how publication venues regulate its use or of how capable current AI review systems are. We address these questions by first surveying reviewer-facing AI policies across 111 leading AI/NLP conferences and medical journals, revealing substantial regulation differences between the two communities. Second, we evaluate AI-generated peer reviews at ICLR 2026 and Nature Communications using a novel dataset comprising original manuscript submissions and several hundred human- and machine-generated reviews. We compare reviews produced by open-source and proprietary models using complementary evaluation metrics, including LLM-as-a-Judge, score alignment, granularity, and overlap with human reviewers' concerns. Our results show that current LLMs can generate detailed and fluent reviews but exhibit systematic weaknesses, such as overly positive recommendations, generic criticism, and uneven evidence grounding. We demonstrate that aggregate quality scores alone can overestimate review quality and argue for multi-dimensional evaluation of AI-generated peer reviews.

arXiv

Soft Guidance Starts to Outperform CoT Prompting as LLMs Improve

Denys Pushkin, Albert Q. Jiang, Aryo Lotfi, Colin Sandon, Emmanuel Abbé

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting remains the standard baseline for evaluating models' reasoning abilities. Originally, this technique was introduced to elicit step-by-step reasoning from large language models (LLMs), which would otherwise tend to directly output the final answer. However, many modern LLMs produce CoT-style responses \textit{natively} when presented with reasoning tasks, which made us revisit the effectiveness of standard CoT prompting. We evaluate several modern mid-sized language models on a math problem-solving task and find that models specialized for reasoning achieve better performance in a simple zero-shot setting than when using few-shot CoT examples - significantly surpassing officially reported results at no additional cost (e.g., from $\sim$77\% to $\sim$84\% for Mathstral on GSM8K). For the tested general-purpose model, a zero-shot CoT prompt is also sufficient to outperform a few-shot CoT baseline. We attribute this to a `guidance-distraction' tradeoff: standard CoT prompting also demands style adaptation, formatting compliance, and potentially undesired contextualization, which can distract models from the core reasoning task. Our findings suggest that using standard CoT prompting increasingly acts as a source of distraction as models grow stronger.

arXiv

Behaviorally Adaptive Visual Diversion for Inclusive and Resilient Digital Assessment Delivery

Gupta Lovi Raj, kaur Kamalpreet, Dama Sriram, Parali Prajithaa

Institutions increasingly rely on browser lockdown, webcam monitoring, and behavioral analytics to secure high-stakes digital assessments, yet these mechanisms are commonly designed and evaluated independently and often overlook learner accessibility. This paper introduces Behaviorally-Adaptive Visual Diversion (BAVD), a theoretical framework in which a synthetic, non-semantic visual field is composited with assessment content and adaptively modulated according to observed candidate behavior. The underlying assessment content is never altered; only its visual presentation is modified to reduce the usefulness of unauthorized screen capture or screen sharing while remaining minimally intrusive for legitimate candidates. The framework further incorporates an accessibility-aware attenuation mechanism that reduces or suppresses diversion intensity for candidates with approved visual-processing accommodations. We formulate the model using a coupled dynamical-systems representation comprising a Diversion Field Generator, Rendering Tensor, Behavior Tensor, Composite Integrity Functional, and Multi-dimensional Entropy Model, and establish theoretical properties for content fidelity, rendering stability, entropy boundedness, integrity tracking, and closed-loop adaptation stability. The framework explicitly states its threat model, identifies deployment assumptions and limitations, and discusses the trade-off between accessibility and capture resistance. This work provides a mathematically grounded foundation for behaviorally adaptive and accessibility-aware assessment delivery and offers a basis for future empirical validation in trusted digital assessment platforms.

arXiv

Dr. AGENTONOMICS: A Didactic Experiment of AGENTONOMICS

Fengjunjie Pan, Alois Knoll

AGENTONOMICS is a framework that treats AI agents as economic entities that can be designed, managed, and governed through an integrated management architecture. Dr. AGENTONOMICS is its first application: a lecture agent developed in the context of the TUM course on AI agents in business administration. Conceived during the winter semester 2025/26 and first introduced to students in the summer semester 2026, it serves as a didactic experiment in which the agent is both the object that students study and the medium through which they learn and apply the framework. The current prototype is a web-based, retrieval-grounded tutor that explains AGENTONOMICS concepts and supports student questions. This report argues that the same system can grow beyond tutoring into three additional cumulative roles: an avatar lecturer that delivers multimodal instruction, a design consultant that guides students through the AGENTONOMICS Design & Management Reference Framework (ADMRF), and a meta-agent that helps construct the agents students have specified. These roles are cumulative because they share the same interface, intelligence layer, tools, knowledge base, and ecosystem connection, while an orchestrator selects the role-specific algorithm required for each task. We present the architecture of the prototype, outline its development roadmap, and discuss its implications for a polycentric AI economy. This report is intended to invite further discussion on how agents can teach, apply, and eventually reproduce the frameworks by which they are designed.

arXiv

Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction: Bridging Long Horizons via Dynamical Guidance

Xiucong Zhao, Jindong Tian, Hao Miao

Forecasting precise future motion of surrounding agents is essential for reliable autonomous vehicles. However, as the demand for longer prediction horizons increases, existing endpoint-completion or iterative-refine methods increasingly struggle with weak guidance and compounding errors. To tackle the long-horizon prediction challenge, we propose Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction (PCTP). By introducing ``pivots'' and focusing on predicting pivot points along extended trajectories, we divide the long-term prediction task into short-term sub-tasks at various scales. Specifically, PCTP decouples the long-term trajectory predicting process into two processes: pivot prediction and pivot-based trajectory refinement. The pivot prediction process aims to utilize global map context and agent-to-agent interactions to identify these ``pivot points'', while the pivot-based trajectory refinement process focuses on local map details and refines the short-term trajectory based on predicted ``pivot points''. Compared with existing methods, PCTP provides more intermediate guidance while reducing compounding errors. Moreover, PCTP is a flexible approach that can be integrated into most state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Experimental results show that PCTP improves the prediction accuracy of leading models on both Argoverse I and Argoverse II datasets with minimal impact on model size. Specifically, PCTP combined with QCNet outperforms all published ensemble-free methods on the Argoverse II leaderboard at submission.

arXiv

AI Forensics Across White-, Grey-, and Black-Box Access: A Process Model and Research Agenda for Post-Incident Investigation of AI Systems

Ali Dehghantanha, Sajad Homayoun

AI systems are increasingly involved in decisions and actions that may later require investigation. When an AI related incident occurs, investigators need to reconstruct what the system did, why it behaved that way, and which part of the system or supply chain contributed to the outcome. Existing work on AI forensics remains fragmented, often focusing on a specific system type, artifact, or analysis technique. This paper argues that investigator access is a useful starting point for organizing the field. We distinguish white box, grey box, and black box access and show how each access level changes what can be collected, preserved, analyzed, and reported. Based on this distinction, we propose a process model matrix for AI forensics across four phases: collection, preservation, analysis, and reporting. We also introduce an order of volatility for AI systems, covering runtime state, context windows, logs, retrieval stores, model artifacts, and training lineage. From this matrix, we derive an access conditioned examination framework and identify open research problems, including black box preservation, model version attestation, uncertainty quantification for surrogate based analysis, and chain of custody for mutable AI artifacts.

arXiv

Reversing Arrows in Large Language Models

Sefika Efeoglu, Adrian Paschke

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance on text-to-knowledge graph generation and related tasks. Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether they accurately model the direction-dependent semantics of inverse relations, in which reversing the order of the arguments alters the meaning of a relation (e.g., \textit{mother} versus \textit{child}). To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first systematic study of inverse relation directionality in LLMs, using a benchmark consisting of 5,457 instances spanning 27 distinct inverse relation labels. We evaluate five open-source LLMs under a multiple-choice prompting framework and further examine the influence of relation descriptions and entity representations by substituting the original entities with synthetic and masked entities. Our findings reveal systematic asymmetries in inverse relation classification across LLMs, indicate that relation descriptions do not consistently improve performance, and show that model performance can be sensitive to variations in entity representations.

arXiv

When Many Answers Are Valid, Voting Fails: Symbolic Verification for Best-of-K Causal Reasoning in LLMs

Omatharv Bharat Vaidya, Connor Thomas Jerzak, Zayne Rea Sprague, Fangcong Yin, Nhat Ho

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.

arXiv

Can LLM design high-quality experiments? A Comprehensive and Systematic Benchmark on Autonomous Experimental Design

Zejun Liu, Jian Wu, Ru Peng, Yuliang Ji, Dongyuan Li, Renhe Jiang, Yue Zhang

AI for Research (AI4Research) leverages AI to automate and improve scientific workflows. While experimental design is a critical stage of the research process, prior work has focused primarily on code implementation and execution, overlooking the importance of this stage, and no benchmark exists to evaluate AI's ability to conduct systematic experiment design. To bridge this gap, we propose SCOPE, a Scientific COmprehensive Planning Evaluation Benchmark constructed from 300 high-quality latest papers across 19 research domains from top-tier venues (e.g., ICML, NeurIPS, and ICLR),evaluating LLMs on two dimensions: High-Level planning completeness (main, ablation, and analysis experiments) and Low-Level configuration accuracy and rationality (datasets, baselines, and metrics). Benchmarking reveals three findings: (1) most LLMs cannot directly design high-quality experiments; (2) all LLMs exhibit a performance bottleneck in low-level configuration; and (3) search mode does not improve design quality. Furthermore, to address these challenges, we propose OptED, a novel agentic workflow to optimize LLM-based experimental design, that enhances LLM-based experimental planning through stage isolation, tool augmentation, and rule-based constraints, effectively alleviating the configuration bottleneck.

arXiv

WeClawArena: An Auditable Sandbox and Benchmark for Cross-User Agents Collaboration and Security in Human-Centered Agent Networks

Prince Zizhuang Wang, Aojie Yuan, Haiyue Zhang, Xiyang Hu, Yue Zhao, Shuli Jiang

Recent advances in persistent personal-agent frameworks are making human-centered agent networks realistic deployment targets: each user can be served by an AI agent that acts on the user's behalf, maintains state, and communicates with other agents through social and task relations. In these networks, everyday tool use becomes multi-party owned-agent collaboration over personal workspaces, where files, records, tools, and policies are not directly visible across owners. Existing agent benchmarks study tool use and collaboration, but they do not provide an end-to-end sandbox for verifiable cross-user agent collaboration with realistic user digital workspaces or test how harmful actions can travel through the human-centered agent network. We introduce WeClawArena, an auditable benchmark and runtime sandbox for multi-party owned-agent collaboration over personal workspaces. WeClawArena targets collaborative tool-use tasks in which personal workspaces serve as both operational tools and personal constraints. The benchmark contains 124 base tasks across six cross-user task domains and expands them into 620 scenario variants, with one benign control and four attack-vector variants per base task. The sandbox records peer messages, tool calls, resource operations, governed decisions, and final workspace states. WeClawArena reports utility and attack success rate separately and audits attack success from bounded runtime evidence, supporting diagnosis of task breakdown, privacy leakage, poisoned evidence, and invalid authority paths.

arXiv

Leveraging System-Level Observations to Inform Bayesian Learning of Model Parameters for Quantitative Verification

Simos Gerasimou, Xingyu Zhao

Combining Bayesian learning and quantitative verification is a powerful toolset for analysing key quantitative properties of software systems, like reliability and response time. However, the accuracy and robustness of verification results strongly depend on the prior knowledge (PK) underlying Bayesian inference. This knowledge reflects original beliefs about the probability of events and typically depends on domain expertise. Using inaccurate or uninformative PK can negatively affect quantitative analysis, yielding incorrect verification results. Our EPIK approach tackles this important challenge by eliciting and embedding PK in quantitative verification equipped with Bayesian estimators. Unlike existing approaches that require PK on formal model transition parameters, EPIK leverages system-level properties that are directly observable and are linked to real-world semantics. EPIK formulates a twofold optimisation problem to derive the distributions of unknown transition parameters and then embeds these distributions to verify new or difficult-to-measure (elusive) properties. The detailed experimental evaluation using multiple variants of real-world case studies and diverse EPIK instantiations shows its effectiveness, flexibility and generality.

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