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Search papers from 30+ top conferences, including NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, CVPR, ACL and AAAI. Filter by keyword, then open any paper for its abstract, authors and links.

arXiv

Attention, Anomalies! Handling Attention Layers in Unsupervised Federated Outlier Detection

Mihailo Ilić, Miloš Savić, Vladimir Kurbalija, Mirjana Ivanović, Giancarlo Fortino, Dušan Jakovetić

Attention layers are the backbone of today's most powerful and impactful models. Models with multi-million and billion parameters rely on contextual knowledge provided by attention layers. However, their use goes well beyond just being the core component of large language models. One particularly interesting application is in Memory Augmented Autoencoders (MemAE), specifically for unsupervised representation learning in outlier detection tasks. It was shown that attention helps these models be more effective in centralized learning scenarios. Our work aims to address the lack of specialized aggregation techniques in Federated Learning (FL) when it comes to MemAE models. In this paper we analyze the intricacies of the architecture behind Memory Augmented Autoencoders, and propose novel, guided approaches to effectively aggregate these models in federated scenarios. We demonstrate our approach on non-IID datasets and show that these novel aggregation schemes are more robust when dealing with numerous edge nodes in environments with unbalanced datasets, specifically for unsupervised anomaly detection scenarios. This approach improves the performance of even very shallow autoencoders, allowing them to be used in resource constrained environments.

arXiv

What We Observe as LLM Behavior Can Be a Side-effect of Inference Backend

Shahed Masoudian, Passant Shafaei, Monorama Swain, Markus Schedl

Benchmark scores are reported as properties of a model, yet the inference framework used to produce them, such as HuggingFace, vLLM, or Ollama, are considered non-influential and their names and versions are almost never disclosed. In this work we investigate how much this choice can influence the model output. In a fully-crossed study (three instruction-tuned models x five inference frameworks x six benchmarks x four generation modes) we investigate how different tools (wrappers/backend) influence benchmark scores and how their score changes is influenced by generation hyper-parameters. We find backend to be a non-negligible factor where even under greedy, sampling-noise-free decoding, changing the backend can significantly alter models performance and this effect is structural and strongly model-dependent. Decomposing the variance according to generation mode reveal that considerable portion of the variability (roughly 39\%) a practitioner sees out-of-the-box can stem from the backend, while the remaining stems from sampling noise and each framework's default generation parameters, both of which are avoidable by disclosing and matching the generation configuration. These divergences are more pronounced on factual than on social-bias benchmarks. Overall, benchmark numbers are not backend-agnostic therefore, we recommend disclosing the backend, its version, and the full generation configuration, also using deterministic decoding for cross-backend comparison.

arXiv

A 6G Integrated Sensing and Communication Framework for Railway Intrusion Detection and Collision Prediction

Ajeet Kumar Yadav, Sankaran Balasubramaniam, Aritra Chatterjee, Vinod Aduru, Yogesh Simmhan, Pandarasamy Arjunan

Integrated Sensing and Communication (ISAC) combines sensing and communication to efficiently utilize wireless resources and is emerging as a key paradigm for next-generation wireless networks. By leveraging the wide bandwidth, high frequencies, and massive antenna arrays of 5G-Advanced and 6G systems, ISAC enables physical-layer sensing using Channel State Information (CSI). The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Release 19 identifies 32 potential ISAC use cases, with particular emphasis on detecting and tracking moving objects. In this work, we address the Sensing for Railway Intrusion Detection use case, where intruders, including wildlife, entering a railway track can pose serious collision risks. We generated 22,695 CSI matrices with corresponding ground truth using a 3D-rendered railway environment and the Sionna radio simulator. We developed a machine learning model combining a three-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (3D CNN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network to detect intruders in the track danger zone and estimate their real-time position relative to the train, velocity, and time to collision. On synthetic CSI data, the model achieves 99.57% intruder-detection accuracy on a balanced test set and a combined Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.4240 for position, velocity, and time-to-collision prediction. These results demonstrate the potential of CSI-based ISAC sensing with machine learning for reliable railway intrusion detection. The complete codebase for CSI generation, preprocessing, and model development is publicly available at https://github.com/EdgeIntelligenceLab/6g-isac-railway-intrusion-detection.

arXiv

Benchmarking Deep Learning Models for Dense Event Classification of Offshore Wind Infrastructure in Sentinel-1 Time Series

Thorsten Hoeser, Felix Bachofer, Claudia Kuenzer

Monitoring of offshore wind energy infrastructure life cycles, especially during the deployment phase, is an important contribution for stakeholders to make informed decisions in a phase of increasing deployment activities. ESA's Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mission produces large data archives that enable the global monitoring of offshore wind infrastructure. Turning these high-volume archives into information requires algorithms that automatically extract single event labels from dense time series at a global scale. In this study, we present a structured comparison of ten deep learning model-training variants for the dense classification of Sentinel-1 based offshore wind infrastructure time series, aiming to advance rule-based event classification of this task. We trained LSTM, Transformer, and fully connected model variants with monotemporal, unidirectional, and bidirectional context awareness, each with and without self-supervised pretraining. Among these, the supervised BiLSTM performs best, raising the target AUC score from 0.7853 for the rule-based baseline to 0.8509, and the perfect match rate from 0.3508 to 0.5063. Combining the BiLSTM predictions with the existing baseline labels in a label-transition-minimising ensemble further improves agreement with the test data. Using these improved labels, we isolate the deployment phase of individual turbines at a global scale and conduct a regional and subregional analysis covering 2016-01-01 to 2025-03-31, reporting median deployment durations of 84 d (China), 242 d (EU), and 258 d (UK). Deployment-related drivers, including legal regulations such as subsidies, and environmental conditions, emerge clearly from the analysed results across multiple spatial scales.

arXiv

Personalized Federated Sparse Adaptation of Time-Series Foundation Models

Priyanka Nihalchandani, Naman Srivastava, Varun Ojha, Pandarasamy Arjunan

Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID. However, a single parameter-sharing strategy is unlikely to serve all pretrained TSFMs or building clients: fully shared adapters can suppress building-specific temporal behavior, while fully local adaptation discards cross-building transfer. We propose a personalized federated sparse adaptation framework with a heterogeneous temporal mixture-of-experts (MoE) adapter placed after the pretrained TSFM representation. A sequence-level router maps each 168-hour context window to a top-$k$ subset of experts specialized for periodicity, long-range interactions, local variation, trend-residual structure, and multi-resolution behavior. We compare global FL, local training, and personalized FL variants with globally shared or client-private expert banks. Across 50 buildings and three TSFM backbones, personalization consistently outperforms Global FL-MoE and Local MoE, while the best sparse-adaptation strategy varies by backbone and metric. Routing behavior further reveals client-level expert specialization, expert concentration, and near-uniform routing across backbones, showing that federated TSFM adaptation should be both client-aware and backbone-aware.

arXiv

Suppression Sticks, Locality Is Fragile: A Closed-Loop Target-and-Control Audit of Task-Vector Negation in VLA Policies

Shaoguang Wang, Weiyu Guo, Rushi Dai, Yiren Zhao, Yandong Guo, Hui Xiong

Task-vector arithmetic offers a closed-form way to modify a model, yet its behavioral locality remains unclear in closed-loop robot control. We present a target-and-control audit of per-skill task-vector subtraction from multitask vision-language-action (VLA) policies. Across all ten LIBERO-Goal skills, subtraction produces three qualitatively different regimes: target-control separation for five skills, resistance for three, and global collapse for two. On held-out initial states, the five suppressible targets remain at 0% success; however, mean baseline-normalized control retention is only 52%, and each target-suppressing edit materially harms at least one nominally unrelated control. Additional Goal panels show separation across tested policies with continuous-regression, discrete-token, and flow-matching action heads, whereas we observe no clean separation on Spatial and control collapse on the tested Object and Long-horizon panels. Mean task-vector cosine does not account for this variation. A matched-norm control identifies a local sign asymmetry around one Goal anchor, while multi-vector outcomes vary with anchor and scale. Retain-aware gradient baselines provide data-dependent comparators but require removal-time data and optimization; subtraction is data- and gradient-free only at edit time, assuming precomputed expert deltas. Finally, a single-skill relearning probe is consistent with behavioral masking, not certified unlearning. These results characterize task-vector subtraction as a fast but brittle intervention and underscore the need for closed-loop target-and-control evaluation when assessing locality in embodied model editing.

arXiv

The Sample Complexity of Distributionally Robust PAC Learning under Cressie--Read Divergences

Elad Aigner-Horev, Daniel Rosenberg, Roi Weiss

We study distributionally robust PAC learning for the $0$--$1$-loss, where adversarial perturbations of the data distribution are constrained by a Cressie--Read divergence of order $k>1$ and radius $ρ\geq 0$. For hypothesis classes with VC dimension $d$, we establish realizable and agnostic sample-complexity bounds tight up to constant and logarithmic factors, respectively; ordinary empirical risk minimization attains both rates up to logarithmic factors. For target accuracy $\varepsilon\in(0,1)$ and confidence $δ\in(0,1)$, their respective orders are \[ \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon}, \frac{ρ^{\frac 1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}) \qquad\text{and}\qquad \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon^2}, \frac{ρ^{\frac1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star\vee 2}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}), \] where $k_\star={k}/{(k-1)}$. For every fixed $ρ>0$, robustness changes the realizable $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-1}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow0$. In the agnostic case, for $1<k<2$, robustness changes the $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-2}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$, whereas for $k\geq2$ the exponent remains the classical $2$, with nontrivial $ρ$-dependence. Building on the known scalar reduction of robust $0$--$1$ risk to ordinary classification error, our analysis reveals a scale-sensitive interaction between the statistical estimation of classification error and its amplification by robustness, sharply explaining the transition in the agnostic rate. We extend the previously studied $χ^2$-divergence case to every Cressie--Read order $k>1$, close its upper--lower gaps, and recover standard PAC learning rates as $ρ\to0$, unlike previous bounds that fail to interpolate correctly in this limit.

arXiv

Diverse and Plausible Algorithmic Recourse via Tractable Recourse Distributions

Anagha Sabu, Hrithik Suresh, Narayanan C Krishnan

Algorithmic recourse seeks to help individuals reverse unfavorable automated decisions by recommending actionable changes that achieve a desired outcome. As an individual usually has several distinct routes to a favorable decision, and different people can act on different ones, a recourse system should offer multiple realistic alternatives rather than one. Existing approaches formulate recourse as an optimization problem that constructs one or a small set of counterfactuals rather than modeling the underlying space of feasible solutions, and in practice each sacrifices diversity, plausibility, or feasibility to secure the others. We propose Tractable Recourse Distributions, a probabilistic framework that represents the space of feasible alternatives for a given factual instance as a probability distribution over favorable outcomes. For commonly used cost functions based on proximity and the number of feature changes, we show that this distribution admits an exact representation as a probabilistic circuit, obtained by exponentially tilting the circuit; each individual's distribution is therefore available in closed form, without retraining the model. Sampling from these distributions naturally produces diverse and plausible recourses, while the tilting parameters provide explicit control over their proximity and sparsity. Experiments on standard algorithmic recourse benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework attains diversity, plausibility, and feasibility simultaneously, while retaining sufficient probability mass over feasible counterfactuals for rejection sampling to be practical. A visual study on MNIST illustrates how the tilt strength trades proximity against validity.

arXiv

Differentiating Through Dual Prices: End-to-End Policy Learning Under Capacity Constraints

Mohammadsaeed Haghi, Mahdi Salmani, Nima Kelidari

Many social services assign scarce resources, such as housing assistance or hospital interventions, to people who arrive one at a time: each arrival must receive a decision immediately, and the long-run usage of every resource must stay within its capacity. We study how to learn such an assignment policy from logged observational data. The standard pipeline is decision-blind: fit one outcome model per arm by regression, price each capacitated resource from the fitted models, and assign each arrival the arm whose predicted outcome minus price is largest. We instead train the outcome models end-to-end, differentiating an off-policy estimate of the deployed policy's value through the dual prices themselves. We study two formulations: an exact nonconvex one, and a convex relaxation whose optimum always satisfies the capacity constraints in expectation and which is suboptimal by at most a term linear in the smoothing temperature and logarithmic in the number of arms. Every method is evaluated in a queueing simulation with resources replenished at their capacity rates. Across six datasets, the two end-to-end variants take the top slots on a deployment-adjusted value index at every delay cost, including zero; when capacities are binding, decision-blind baselines frequently violate them and incur much longer queueing delays. On the largest dataset, a hospital cohort of seventy thousand patients, end-to-end training also achieves significantly higher policy value, a margin that survives a capacity-matched neural baseline. Flexible decision-blind regression remains the stronger pure predictor where ground truth is measurable; end-to-end training is best suited to settings where resources are genuinely scarce and feasibility matters.

arXiv

Automatic Statistical Test for Rationally Expressible Algorithms by Selective Inference, with Applications to Feature Selection

Teruyuki Katsuoka, Tomohiro Shiraishi, Shuichi Nishino, Ichiro Takeuchi

Selective inference (SI) provides statistically valid $p$-values for hypotheses selected by applying an algorithm to the data, correcting for the bias that arises when the same data are used both to select and to test a hypothesis. Developing an SI procedure for a new algorithm, however, has required an expert to derive, and then implement, the selection event, i.e., the conditions under which the hypothesis is selected. Repeating this specialized effort for every new algorithm is why exact SI has so far been available for only a narrow class. We propose AutoSI, a framework that removes this barrier in two ways. First, AutoSI constructs the selection event automatically from the algorithm's individual operations, so the user only writes the algorithm as ordinary NumPy-like code and derives nothing by hand. Second, AutoSI broadens the class of selection events SI can handle: existing exact methods are limited to selection events characterized by linear or quadratic inequalities in the data, whereas AutoSI covers any algorithm expressible through rational functions of the data (ratios of polynomials). We prove that the $p$-values computed by AutoSI are exactly valid in finite samples. We demonstrate AutoSI on three feature-selection methods, each written in a few dozen lines of code. One of these methods, the lasso with its tuning parameter selected by cross-validated $R^2$, cannot be handled within existing exact SI frameworks and is made possible by AutoSI. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that the resulting $p$-values control the type I error rate (i.e., the false positive rate) at the nominal level while retaining high power.

arXiv

Active Learning Guided Design Space Refinement for Scalable Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization in Materials Discovery

Alexandros Ntagiantas, Panagiotis Tsilimidos, George Giannakopoulos, Christoforos Rekatsinas, Panagiotis Krokidas

Advanced materials discovery increasingly relies on machine learning and Bayesian optimization to explore large discrete design spaces under limited evaluation budgets. However, conventional Bayesian optimization (BO) can become inefficient as candidate spaces grow, often evaluating low-value regions before reaching informative areas. We propose an active-learning (AL)-guided adaptive search-space refinement framework combined with multi-objective BO to accelerate materials optimization while preserving Pareto-relevant regions. We evaluate the approach on CH4/N2 separation in covalent-organic frameworks and pressure-vessel design with material-direction stress components and thickness objectives. Results show that the AL-guided refinement reduces the candidate space by approximately half while preserving more than 99 percent of the original hypervolume. The reduced-space strategy improves early convergence and cumulative Pareto-front discovery from the BO, demonstrating efficient large-scale materials optimization across constrained autonomous materials discovery settings.

arXiv

An entropic explanation of insistence on sameness in autism

Przemysław Śliwiński

An information theory-based framework is proposed in attempt to explain insistence on sameness in autism as an instance of a general behavior pattern in which an individual tries to reduce surprise and uncertainty. It offers a new definition of autism as an impairment in which cognitive functions are restricted to discrimination, memorization and prediction of tangible properties of the environment. An analogy between insistence on sameness and constrained minimization of the entropy metric is observed and examined for a set of assumptions that describe cognitive limitations of a person with autism. The metric is given by the formula $D_H(R, M) = H(R|M) + H(M|R)$, where $R$ represents sequences of random stimuli, $M$ is a memory that stores and retrieves them, and where $H(.|.)$ denotes their conditional entropies interpreted as surprise and uncertainty, respectively. It is first inferred that to minimize the metric an individual can learn about $R$ (and store that knowledge in $M$) or can restrict $R$ to the already known $M$. Then, it is concluded that insistence on sameness is a manifestation of the latter. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed framework: (1) Helps to quantify the concepts of surprise, uncertainty, sensory overload and deprivation, anxiety, comfort zone, disappointment, disorientation, pedantry, rigidness, observance or aberrant precision. (2) Leads to a list of guidelines for learning therapies and daily care routines, and allows them to be defined as optimization algorithms and implemented as programs for robotic live-in caregivers. (3) Can be validated with the help of a Turing test-like approach that requires no experiments involving individuals with autism. The framework-if positively validated-will provide formal foundations and design guidelines for therapies aimed at improving self-reliance of individuals with autism in basic activities of daily living.

arXiv

Why Ranking Anomaly Detection Algorithms Isn't as Reliable as You May Think

Simon Klüttermann, Jérôme Rutinowski, Frederik Polachowski, Alice Kirchheim

Anomaly detection is a safety-critical machine learning problem with applications ranging from fraud detection to network intrusion prevention and industrial monitoring. Despite the large number of proposed anomaly detection algorithms, many novel methods claim state-of-the-art performance. However, many authors do so under benchmark settings that are not aligned with one another. This lack of comparability raises concerns regarding the reproducibility and reliability of anomaly detection benchmarks. In this work, we study the impact of common benchmarking choices on the stability of algorithm rankings. Using seven representative anomaly detection algorithms and 690 datasets from the OddBench benchmark suite, we analyze how rankings change under varying dataset selections, evaluation metrics, hyperparameter configurations, and random seeds. To quantify this effect, we introduce a rank instability metric measuring the variability of algorithm rankings across benchmark settings. Our results show that algorithm rankings in anomaly detection are highly unstable. In many cases, almost every competitive algorithm can appear as the best-performing method under some benchmark configuration. Among the studied factors, dataset selection and hyperparameter choice contribute most strongly to ranking uncertainty, while random seeds and evaluation metrics have a comparatively limited impact. We also observe that reliable benchmarking requires substantially larger and more diverse dataset collections than the ones commonly used in prior work.

arXiv

On MUON optimization: From non-convergence to an error analysis with Polar Express and the Newton-Schulz polynomial from implementations

Thang Do, Steffen Dereich, Arnulf Jentzen

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization methods are the standard instruments for the training of deep neural networks (DNNs). In many relevant artificial intelligence (AI) systems - such as popular large language models (LLMs)-not the standard SGD scheme is used as the optimization method but instead suitable accelerated variants of SGD are employed. One of the most popular methods of such accelerated SGD variants is the momentum orthogonalized by Newton-Schulz (MUON) optimizer proposed by Jordan et al. in 2024. The MUON optimizer exploits the special matrix structure of the weight parameters in the training of the DNNs and, in its original form, employs five Newton-Schultz (NS) matrix steps in each MUON iteration. In this work we propose and study a generalized variant of the MUON optimizer involving an arbitrary number of generalized NS steps with polynomials of possibly arbitrary high degree. The considered optimizer covers MUON with the original NS polynomial as well as MUON combined with the recently proposed Polar Express method as special cases. For a simple class of stochastic optimization problems (SOPs) we show for almost every mini-batch size that MUON fails to converge to the solution of the SOP as the number of gradient steps converges to infinity. We also establish an error analysis for MUON with the generalized NS steps that provides convergence rates in terms of the number of gradient steps and in terms of the size of the mini-batch. We illustrate our general error analysis for MUON in the case of several concrete examples including quadratic stochastic optimization problems (SOPs) as well as $\ell_2$ regularized logistic regression for binary classification.

arXiv

Rethinking Reservoir Pruning: A Dynamical Perspective for Echo State Networks

Sudip Laudari, Puspa Raj Adhikari

Echo State Networks (ESNs) offer an efficient framework for temporal prediction, but their randomly initialized reservoirs are often over-parameterized and dynamically redundant. Existing pruning methods largely rely on static connectivity or activation statistics, which may overlook neurons that shape input-driven state transitions. We propose Dynamical Mode Pruning (DMP), a reservoir pruning method that ranks neurons by their contribution to dominant transition modes obtained from a trajectory-averaged Jacobian Gramian. DMP removes low-impact units and retrains only the readout. Experiments on chaotic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that DMP improves or preserves forecasting accuracy while reducing redundant reservoir components. Our results suggest that dynamical influence is a useful criterion for reservoir refinement beyond static structural importance alone.

arXiv

A Model Merging Approach for Continual MLLM Unlearning

Yuhang Wang, Linlin Zhang, Haoxuan Ji, Xianmin Ye, Zhenxing Niu, Haichang Gao

Multimodal large language model (MLLM) unlearning methods have been proposed to remove private, sensitive, or proprietary information from well-trained models. However, most existing MLLM unlearning methods are designed for one-shot requests and fail to adequately address continual scenarios, as repeatedly applying one-shot operations leads to cumulative utility degradation, unlearning rebound, and retention drift. We introduce Merging for Continual Unlearning (MCU), an approach that dynamically merges multiple one-shot unlearning adapters into a unified adapter upon receiving each new unlearning request.Through a leave-one-out merging analysis, we reveal that these unlearning adapters exhibit strong cross-task dependencies. Such dependencies have two contrasting effects: they can facilitate cross-task unlearning transferability, but they can also introduce severe interference that degrades unlearning effectiveness and compromises retained knowledge. To address this challenge, MCU projects the adapters into a shared representation space, preserves their dominant directions, suppresses over-concentrated coordinates, and reconfigures cross-task dependencies to mitigate interference while enhancing transferability. Experiments on ICU-Bench and MLLMU-Bench demonstrate that MCU achieves superior unlearning effectiveness while preserving both retained knowledge and general multimodal utility.

arXiv

Learning Compression Rules for Network Traffic

Quentin Lampin, Éloi Sainte-Beuve, Louis-Adrien Dufrène, Guillaume Larue, Massih-Reza Amini

We study the problem of learning compact rule-based compressors for structured network traffic. Each packet is a record of header fields that are highly redundant within a flow, and a compressor is a small set of rules matching such records and replacing predictable fields with short codes. We cast rule learning as a two-stage problem: (i) an unsupervised structure-discovery stage that recursively partitions training packets using a normalized entropy-ratio criterion robust to small samples, and (ii) a constrained selection stage that uses dynamic programming to pick the rule subset maximizing expected compression gain under a hard budget on the number of installable rules. We instantiate the framework on Static Context Header Compression (SCHC), the IETF standard for rule-based header compression in constrained networks, and evaluate it on four real-world Internet-of-Things and 5G core-network datasets. Our method, Robust Entropy Clustering for Adaptive comPression (RECAP), surpasses expert-engineered rule sets with a small number of learned rules and removes the need for manual rule design.

arXiv

Discretization and Statistical Consistency of Functional Flow Matching

Lennon J. Shikhman

Functional flow matching is posed on distributions of functions but implemented from finitely many coefficients or point values. Under scattered or adaptive refinement, the resulting conditioning sigma-algebras need not be nested, so martingale convergence does not justify the sensor limit. We prove strong $L^2$ convergence of finite conditional velocity targets for every strongly consistent sequence of finite-rank reconstructions, with quantitative bounds for orthogonal projections and a point-sensor extension through a regularity space. For learned flows, coupling directly to a population superposition path yields an end-to-end Wasserstein bound without assuming uniqueness of the population finite-dimensional ODE. We verify sensor-independent constants for a normalized quadrature neural operator, including globally Lipschitz activations through an explicit magnitude recurrence. A noncommuting trace-class Gaussian example gives boundary multiplier $0$ under projected restriction and $0.72$ under exact conditioning. A spatial regularity--cubature certificate closes the operator-realization term, a Bernstein argument gives a $\widetilde{O}(n^{-1})$ excess-risk term for fixed model dimension and envelopes, and an exactly realizable clipped Gaussian scaling specialization yields an explicit end-to-end rate.

arXiv

Local Violation Certification for Linear Predict-Then-Optimize Pipelines

Ş. İlker Birbil, Wenhao Chi

Data-driven decision pipelines combining predictive machine learning models with downstream optimization software are increasingly used to make high-stakes operational decisions. Certifying the safety, fairness, and reliability of these decisions is essential, yet traditional scenario generation methods rely on repeated random testing, which becomes computationally prohibitive when failure events are rare and offers little insight into why failures occur. We present a framework for local violation certification designed specifically for linear decision pipelines under input uncertainty. We mathematically demonstrate that standard sampling methods fail efficiently for rare violations, motivating a direct structural approach. By analyzing the fixed decision boundary of a deployed pipeline, we show that the local risk of failure can be calculated directly in closed form using a single optimization solve. Furthermore, we introduce an exact sampling procedure and closed-form risk statistics that provide feature-level attributions (identifying which input characteristics contribute most to potential non-compliance) without requiring repetitive random trials or complex sampling algorithms. We demonstrate our approach on an economic power dispatch system subject to emissions regulations, delivering precise, auditable risk assessments at a fraction of the traditional computational cost.

arXiv

Beyond Linear Dynamics: Neural Bilinear Dynamical Models for Time Series Forecasting

Mengzhou Gao, Huangqian Yu, Pengfei Jiao

Time series in real-world applications are often generated by nonlinear dynamical systems, making accurate forecasting challenging. Existing approaches that explicitly model system dynamics typically rely on linear assumptions or Koopman-based linearizations, which may inadequately capture complex nonlinear behaviors and lead to error accumulation in long-horizon prediction. To address this limitation, we propose the Neural Bilinear Dynamical Model (NBDM), which models nonlinear system dynamics through a bilinear latent dynamical formulation. Specifically, NBDM leverages Koopman theory to lift the original nonlinear dynamics into a higher-dimensional latent space, where a bilinear dynamical model is constructed to characterize state evolution. To mitigate the approximation error introduced by bilinear representations, we further incorporate a parameterized error compensation term. Within this formulation, control inputs are explicitly integrated into the dynamics, using auxiliary variables when available and learned feedback signals otherwise. To handle scenarios with missing control inputs, we design a memory-enhanced controller that infers latent controls through multiplicative interactions between historical states and control signals. Experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that NBDM consistently outperforms competitive baselines in both given-control and missing-control settings, particularly for multi-step and long-horizon forecasting.

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