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arXiv

A New First-Order Meta-Learning Algorithm with Convergence Guarantees

El Mahdi Chayti, Martin Jaggi

Learning new tasks by leveraging prior experience is a fundamental trait of intelligent systems. While Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) is a leading approach, it suffers from significant computational and memory overhead due to the requirement of computing second-order meta-gradients. We propose \textbf{FO-B-MAML}, a novel first-order variant of MAML derived from a bi-level optimization perspective. Our framework introduces a new expression of the meta-gradient, defined as the derivative of the solution of a perturbed optimization problem. This formulation allows the meta-gradient to be estimated using various finite difference methods; in this work, we propose and analyze two simple yet effective estimators: a forward and a symmetric approximation. Unlike existing first-order methods like FO-MAML and Reptile, which suffer from irreducible bias, we prove that FO-B-MAML converges to a stationary point of the meta-objective. Notably, the symmetric estimator achieves an improved $\mathcal{O}(δ^{2/3})$ bias rate, strictly enhancing previous first-order theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the MAML objective violates standard smoothness assumptions; we show instead that its smoothness constant grows with the norm of the meta-gradient. This property theoretically justifies the use of normalized or clipped-gradient methods (SNGDM) over vanilla gradient descent. Our empirical results validate these advancements: FO-B-MAML achieves high accuracy, closely following second-order MAML performance. Crucially, our method bypasses the ``activation bottleneck'' of second-order approaches, maintaining a flat memory footprint even when scaling to deep, activation-heavy CNNs and Transformers.

arXiv

Harmonizing Safety and Speed: A Human-Algorithm Approach to Enhance the FDA's Medical Device Clearance Policy

Mohammad Zhalechian, Soroush Saghafian, Omar Robles

The United States Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) 510(k) pathway allows manufacturers to gain medical device approval by demonstrating substantial equivalence to a legally marketed device. However, the inherent ambiguity of this regulatory procedure has been associated with high recall among many devices cleared through this pathway, raising significant safety concerns. In this paper, we develop a combined human-algorithm approach to assist the FDA in improving its 510(k) medical device clearance process by reducing recall risk and regulatory workload. We first develop machine learning methods to estimate the risk of recall of 510(k) medical devices based on the information available at the time of submission. We then propose a data-driven clearance policy that recommends acceptance, rejection, or deferral to FDA's committees for in-depth evaluation. We conduct an empirical study using a unique dataset of over 31,000 submissions that we assembled based on data sources from the FDA and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service (CMS). Compared to the FDA's current practice, which has a recall rate of 10.3% and a normalized workload measure of 100%, a conservative evaluation of our policy shows a 32.9% improvement in the recall rate and a 40.5% reduction in the workload. Our analyses further suggest annual cost savings of approximately $1.7 billion for the healthcare system driven by avoided replacement costs, which is equivalent to 1.1% of the entire United States annual medical device expenditure. Our findings highlight the value of a holistic and data-driven approach to improve the FDA's current 510(k) pathway.

arXiv

Redistribution-based Cost Inference Improves Sparse Safe Offline RL

Ebenezer Gelo, Geraud Nangue Tasse, Steven James, Benjamin Rosman

Safe offline RL typically assumes access to dense per-step cost annotations, but in practice supervisors provide only trajectory-level stop-feedback: a binary signal at the first unsafe transition, with no per-step attribution. We frame this as a temporal credit assignment problem and propose the Redistribution-based Cost Inference (RCI) framework, which converts sparse stop-feedback into dense per-step costs via return decomposition, then trains a constrained offline policy on the augmented dataset. We show that return-equivalent redistribution preserves the feasible policy set and the optimal Lagrangian in a CMDP, establishing that the transformation is lossless in theory while yielding better-conditioned cost critic learning in practice. Experiments on highway driving and robotic manipulation demonstrate substantially lower violation rates than sparse and classifier-based baselines, with robustness to heterogeneous dataset compositions and label noise.

arXiv

A Framework for Designing Reward Functions: From Objectives to Features to Human-Aligned Reward Functions

Di Yang Shi, W. Bradley Knox

We present a formal process to enable non-experts to instantiate and iterate on human-aligned reward functions, i.e. reward functions that adhere to a given preference ordering over trajectories. Given a task described in natural language, our process produces a linear reward function in three steps: distill the task's objectives into a set of fundamental objectives and derive measurable outcome variables that capture those fundamental objectives, select a causally representative subset of outcome variables as the reward terms, and fit weights to those reward terms via preference elicitation. Our contributions describe the first step and formalize the latter two steps. The first is a guided workflow for deriving outcome variables. The second is a reduction of reward term selection to minimum-cost partial cover on a causal DAG, solved in polynomial time via max-flow. The third is a geometric framing of weight fitting as a convex feasibility problem iteratively narrowed by preference queries, solved by existing separation oracle methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reward-design method that maintains a deterministically conflict-free feasible weight region, narrowed to a desired tolerance via a separation oracle with O(n log κ) preference queries.

arXiv

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

Pedro Sousa, Will Tebbutt, Sadiq Jaffer, Robin Young, Anil Madhavapeddy, Richard E Turner

Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties. Existing probabilistic downscalers address this gap using hand-crafted topographic descriptors. We ask instead whether Earth observation foundation models can provide transferable sub-grid surface representations for probabilistic weather downscaling. We augment a convolutional conditional neural process that downscales coarse ERA5 reanalysis fields at ~25 km resolution with a learned local surface descriptor, obtained by compressing a patch of TESSERA embeddings at 10 m resolution. Although these embeddings summarise surface conditions over annual timescales, they improve downscaling of instantaneous 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed by encoding persistent surface properties that capture a location's departure from the coarse-grid atmospheric state. Across five climatically diverse regions, the embedding improves point and probabilistic skill at stations held out in both space and time, overall improving CRPS skill by 11.5% for 2 m temperature and 6.2% for 10 m wind speed. We further analyse how its contribution differs by variable, finding that topography explains more of temperature's sub-grid structure, while TESSERA provides additional surface information for wind speed. These improvements persist when the coarse input is changed from ERA5 to forecasts from the Aurora AI forecasting model, and when predicting at newly deployed stations with no regional history. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that long-timescale Earth-observation embeddings can support short-timescale weather downscaling where sub-grid departures are systematically structured by persistent surface properties.

arXiv

Calibration Bets on the Past: Post-Training Quantization for Financial Time-Series Forecasting

Junyi Ye, Ivy Gateri Wanjiku

Financial forecasting models are typically developed in full precision, yet production deployment often requires low-precision inference to reduce memory and computational cost. Post-training quantization (PTQ) enables such deployment without retraining. However, reliable activation quantization requires calibration: activation ranges are estimated from historical data before deployment and then remain fixed during future inference. The importance of this deployment choice for financial forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a systematic study of activation calibration for PTQ in cross-sectional volatility forecasting on the S&P 500. Our evaluation covers seven representative neural architectures, eight walk-forward test years (2018-2025), and 560 trained models. We find that activation calibration has little effect at 8 bits but becomes the primary determinant of predictive performance at 4 bits. Under default absolute-maximum (abs-max) calibration, static 4-bit quantization of both weights and activations removes 11-62% of the full-precision mean information coefficient in affected architectures. Replacing abs-max with percentile calibration recovers 53-94% of this degradation in the four most affected architectures. The preferred activation range also varies across market periods. Narrow ranges improve resolution under typical market conditions but lose part of their advantage when test-period market dispersion exceeds the calibration history. These findings show that activation calibration is a first-class deployment decision for reliable 4-bit PTQ in financial forecasting. When substantial degradation remains, 8-bit activations or weight-only 4-bit quantization provide more robust deployment choices.

arXiv

Regime-Gated Residual Mixture-of-Experts for Cross-Sectional Volatility Forecasting

Junyi Ye, Gargi Vijay Borde

Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling walk-forward evaluation framework in which information, model capacity, hyperparameter tuning, and random seeds are matched across architectures. We propose RG-ResMoE, a regime-gated residual mixture-of-experts architecture in which regime information is used only for expert routing rather than for direct forecasting. The base predictor models volatility from stock features, while a gating network uses regime state variables to route residual corrections. RG-ResMoE consistently outperforms a capacity-matched MLP in both forecasting accuracy and training stability in the main U.S. study. Similar gains are observed on an independent Japanese panel. The integration pathway is decisive: appending the same regime variables directly to the forecasting input degrades both predictive performance and training stability, whereas restricting them to the routing gate improves accuracy and Value-at-Risk calibration. Hard routing consistently underperforms soft routing. The results suggest that, in compact neural volatility forecasting models, the primary value of mixture-of-experts models lies less in increasing model capacity than in controlling how nonstationary regime information influences prediction.

arXiv

ScreenShot: A Foundation Model for Few-Shot Combination Drug Screening

Antoine de Mathelin, Christopher Tosh, Wesley Tansey

Treating patients with combinations of drugs reduces the risk of resistance to any individual drug. Finding effective combinations is difficult because the large search space makes combinatorial screens prohibitively expensive, time consuming, and often technically infeasible. Predictive models can fill this gap, yet existing methods typically require molecular profiling of each sample and per-cohort training, limiting their applicability when time and tissue are scarce. To address this challenge, we introduce ScreenShot, a hierarchical transformer pretrained on 40 drug screening datasets covering 3,700 drugs and 6,000 biological samples, whose architecture mirrors the nested structure of screening data. Given a few-shot context of observations from a new patient, ScreenShot predicts the response of the sample to combination therapies through in-context learning, operating directly on functional measurements with no fine-tuning and no molecular profiling. On four held-out datasets, ScreenShot outperforms all baselines in both prediction accuracy and identification of selectively effective treatments. ScreenShot's internal representations are directly useful for experimental design: we use them to drive a weighted k-means++ active learning strategy that selects which experiments to run, achieving the same hit detection as uniform screening with a third of the budget. Source code and interactive dashboard: https://github.com/tansey-lab/screenshot.

arXiv

Learning-Based Behavior Planning for Automated Driving: Real-World Integration and Deployment

Jean-Pierre Busch, Guido Linden, Jan Bergmann, Lutz Eckstein

Recent research in machine and deep learning has shown the potential of learningbased motion planning approaches to improve the driving behavior of automated vehicles, especially in complex environments. However, their complex nature and lack of transparency can hinder explainability and trustworthiness and complicate safety assurance. Motivated by these challenges, we propose a hybrid planning architecture that combines the advantages of machine learning with the verifiability and the determinism of classical approaches. Specifically, we developed a deep neural network to interpret complex traffic scenes and propose driving behavior, while an optimization-based supervision layer validates this proposal and enforces explicit drivability and safety constraints. We evaluate the learned planner's driving behavior in open-loop studies on real-world urban data, discuss system integration aspects for stable closed-loop operation, and report results from real-world deployment on our research vehicle karl..

arXiv

HYDRA: Hyperbolic Dynamic Representation Architecture for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Zhao Su, Yuxin Xia, Haoran Li, Jun Shen, Qi Zhu, Qingguo Zhou, Binbin Yong

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) enhance nonlinear function approximation by replacing scalar weights with learnable univariate functions. However, assigning an independent function to every connection results in substantial parameter redundancy, limiting their scalability and efficiency. To reduce this redundancy, we introduce \textbf{HY}perbolic \textbf{D}ynamic \textbf{R}epresentation \textbf{A}rchitecture (HYDRA), a parameter-efficient hyperbolic extension of KAN that combines spline-based functional learning with representations in the Poincaré ball. HYDRA maps vector-valued inputs into a bounded hyperbolic latent space, performs KAN-style updates in tangent space, and employs a low-rank prototype block to share functional transformations across hidden dimensions. The resulting hyperbolic representations provide a structured radial coordinate for interpretation, while radius control improves training stability by preventing boundary saturation. Extensive experiments across eight benchmark datasets demonstrate that HYDRA consistently achieves competitive or superior predictive performance while improving parameter efficiency and representation interpretability.

arXiv

How to Spend Your Oracle Budget: Practical Guidance for Protein Structure Prediction Models

Aleksandra Kalisz, Jack Simons, Krisztina Sinkovics, Noam Ghenassia, Shikha Surana, Henry Moss, Paul Duckworth

Foundation models for protein structure prediction remain unreliable on certain targets. External oracles can flag and correct these failures, but biological oracles are expensive, making oracle budget a critical constraint. Existing guidance methods, such as FK-steering, DPO, and Best K-of-N sampling, differ in how they spend this budget, yet no systematic comparison exists to guide method selection. To bridge this gap, we benchmark these methods alongside the recently proposed Optimisation Over Outputs (O3), which applies off-the-shelf optimisers within a generative model's latent subspace. We extend the usage of O3 to protein structure prediction models. Overall, our work provides the first practical reference for oracle budget-aware guidance. Our evaluation on two protein targets, calmodulin (1CLL) and E. coli aspartate transcarbamoylase (9EEH), reveals that no single method consistently dominates across all budgets and oracles. Specifically, O3 proves most effective at low oracle budgets, while FK-steering and DPO demonstrate improved performance as the budget increases. We distil these findings into actionable recommendations for practitioners operating under real-world oracle-budget constraints.

arXiv

ADEPT: A Unified Framework for Deep Learning Test Adequacy

Yidi Kao, Shawn Burnham, Tommi Rose Fahy, Ali Ghanbari

Over the past decade, many test adequacy metrics have been proposed for deep learning that characterize test dataset adequacy from different perspectives, e.g., neuron activation behavior, latent feature coverage, decision-boundary exploration, etc. However, these metrics are typically released as independent research prototypes with substantially different installation and preprocessing requirements, execution workflows, and configuration mechanisms. These complications make them quite difficult to reproduce, compare, and adopt in research work and practical deployment alike. In this paper, we present the engineering details of ADEPT, a framework that integrates representative adequacy techniques, including neuron-coverage-based metrics, surprise adequacy, input distribution coverage, boundary coverage, and source- and model-level mutation score, under a consistent execution workflow. ADEPT provides a template-based metric interface with well-defined extension points for integrating new adequacy metrics. Furthermore, it provides YAML-based configuration management, preprocessing-cache reuse, and structured result reporting, making it easy to use in any research and development workflows. ADEPT is designed for researchers and practitioners who wish to reproduce and apply adequacy metrics without spending days or weeks implementing missing tooling or configuring disparate research prototypes. A demo video is available at https://aub.ie/ADEPT_video.

arXiv

FQTree: Fine-grained Quantization and Hardware Generation of Boosted Decision Trees

Zhiqiang Que, Chang Sun, Haiyang Wang, Dinesh Pamunuwa, Roshan Weerasekera, Qijia Tang, Bakhtiar Zadeh, Wayne Luk, Maria Spiropulu

Boosted decision trees (BDTs) are widely used in latency-critical applications, but efficient hardware deployment remains challenging. Existing designs often rely on uniform or manually tuned fixed-point formats, which can introduce unnecessary hardware cost or accuracy loss. This work presents the FQTree algorithm{https://github.com/ecs-bristol/FQTree} for fine-grained quantization-aware training of BDTs, together with the QXGB framework for automatic hardware generation. FQTree introduces a hardware-oriented leaf-value quantization scheme that uses a global quantization step together with a tree-wise shift, enabling compact non-negative integer leaf representations, controlled clipping/pruning, and bias folding to reduce datapath cost. This work further applies this quantization during boosting so that later trees adapt to the errors of the already-quantized ensemble, and then lowers the trained model into low-latency hardware implementations through a compiler-based flow. Results on JSC, MNIST, and NID show that our method reduces LUT usage by 26-57\% compared with the state-of-the-art FPGA-based BDT designs while matching or improving accuracy.

arXiv

Adversarial Resilience of Poisson-Process Submodular Maximization over Matroids: From Robust Offline Optimization to Full-Bandit Learning

Vaneet Aggarwal

We study nonnegative submodular maximization subject to a general matroid when the offline algorithm is given an arbitrary controlled value oracle. Our main result is an adversarial resilience theorem for the Spiteful Greedy Swap Poisson Process (SGS-Poisson): without modifying its Poisson intensity, single-element exchange rule, or spiteful drop step, the algorithm retains limiting approximation factors $1/e$ for non-monotone objectives and $1-1/e$ for monotone objectives. More precisely, under every controlled oracle $\widehat f$ satisfying $|\widehat f(S)-f(S)|\le ξ$ for every set $S$, our implementation returns a feasible set with expected value at least $(1/e-\varepsilon)\OPT-O(kξ)$ and $(1-1/e-\varepsilon)\OPT-O(kξ)$, respectively, using $\widetilde O(nk^2\varepsilon^{-2})$ oracle calls. As a consequence, the offline-to-online reduction yields full-bandit CMAB algorithms for general matroid-constrained submodular rewards with exact limiting approximation-regret factors $1/e$ and $1-1/e$ and $\widetilde O(n^{1/5}k^{4/5}T^{4/5})$ regret.

arXiv

Attractor Image-Based Deep Learning of Arterial Pulse Waves for Age Classification

Sara Vardanega, Patrick Segers, Philip Aston, Ernst Rietzschel, Jordi Alastruey, Manasi Nandi

Arterial pulse waveform morphology evolves with age, reflecting structural and functional changes in the cardiovascular system. Thus, vascular age is a valuable surrogate marker of cardiovascular health, and premature vascular ageing can indicate increased disease risk. Pulse wave analysis could support risk stratification in otherwise asymptomatic adults. We transformed pulse wave time-series data from photoplethysmography (PPG) and arterial tonometry into images, using the Symmetric Projection Attractor Reconstruction (SPAR) method. These SPAR images were used to train a convolutional neural network to classify healthy subjects into two closely spaced age groups (35-40 and 50-55 years). The model demonstrated consistent classification performance across internal and external test sets, achieving F1 scores above 70% for both PPG and tonometry signals. These results suggest that SPAR-derived pulse wave images contain discriminative morphological features even among healthy adults close in age. This proof-of-concept lays the groundwork for future research into the use of SPAR for early risk detection using smart wearables.

arXiv

The Advective Fisher-Rao Geometry of Deterministic Measure Transport

Benjamin Gess, Johannes Müller

A novel advective Fisher-Rao metric is introduced for optimization tasks on paths of probability measures governed by the continuity equation. This metric is shown to lead to optimal descent directions. It is then shown that this metric arises naturally from three different perspectives: As the rescaled zero-noise limit of the Fisher-Rao metric on path measures, as the expected value of the second variation of the Freidlin--Wentzell large deviation rate functional, and as the Hessian of the Benamou--Brenier action functional from dynamic optimal transport. We supplement this geometric construction with computational experiments. Here, we demonstrate empirically that the advective Fisher-Rao metric yields the desired optimal fitting of probability densities, whereas the Gauss--Newton method yields optimal fitting of velocity fields.

arXiv

Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

Coby Penso

In high-stakes applications, reliable confidence estimates are as important as the predictions themselves. Confidence calibration ensures that predicted probabilities reflect the likelihood of correctness, making it essential for safe deployment of deep learning models. However, existing methods typically assume access to clean validation data, which is often unrealistic due to label noise and domain shifts. This thesis develops methods for improving calibration under these conditions. First, we address calibration under label noise. Standard methods can produce misleading confidence estimates when labels are unreliable. We propose a framework that uses an estimated noise model to reconstruct noise-free confidence estimates by modeling the relationship between noisy and clean label distributions. We extend this approach to Conformal Prediction (CP), which provides set-valued predictions with guaranteed coverage. Our noise-aware CP method estimates clean conformity scores despite label noise, enabling reliable uncertainty quantification. Next, we study calibration in unsupervised domain adaptation, where a model trained on a labeled source domain is adapted to an unlabeled target domain. Since labeled target data are unavailable, we estimate target-domain accuracy from source performance and domain discrepancies, enabling calibration without target labels. We also consider privacy-preserving settings in which user labels and model outputs must remain protected. We propose a locally differentially private conformal prediction framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification while maintaining privacy guarantees and balancing privacy, computational feasibility, and prediction reliability. Our results bridge calibration theory and practical deployment in safety-critical applications, contributing to reliable, privacy-preserving, and noise-resilient neural network predictions.

arXiv

NAE: Normalizing AutoEncoder

Muhammad Abdur Rafae, Niels Landwehr

We consider the setting of Normalizing flows with approximate inverses, an established paradigm spanning both full-dimensional ($d=D$) and bottleneck ($d<D$) settings, and group these models under the term flow autoencoders. We present a theoretical investigation into their training dynamics and prove that the proposed loss used by existing approaches is suboptimal; specifically, both encoder and decoder surrogates must be optimized in alignment with reconstruction loss. Guided by these insights, we propose Normalizing Autoencoder (NAE), which employs a novel conditional loss that aligns the surrogate loss gradient with that of reconstruction loss, directly improving upon the current standard. Extensive experiments across molecule generation, tabular data, and image benchmarks demonstrate that NAE achieves state of the art performance. Our work highlights the importance of loss alignment in flow autoencoders and establishes NAE as a powerful generative framework.

arXiv

Faithful, Sufficient and Understandable: Rethinking Graph Counterfactual Explanations via Discrete Diffusion Inversion

David Bechtoldt, Sidney Bender

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) achieve strong predictive performance on graph-structured data across domains such as chemistry, biology, and network analysis, yet they provide no intrinsic explanation of their predictions. This limits their adoption in high-stakes and safety-critical settings. Counterfactual explanations address this by revealing the minimal structural modifications that would change a model's prediction. On graphs, however, such a modification is hard to produce. The search space is discrete and combinatorial, and a valid answer must respect categorical node and edge types together with domain rules such as chemical valency in the case of molecular graphs. Existing explainers give up one of two things. Either edits are not held on the data manifold, or the search does not span the full edit space. We propose Graph Diffusion Counterfactual Explanation via Inversion (GDCE-I), which gives up neither. A discrete denoising diffusion model with a novel discrete inversion scheme enables distribution-aware edits leveraging the whole domain edit space. We further address the incomplete and inconsistent evaluation of graph counterfactuals by deriving a framework of explanation desiderata and applying it to every method under one shared protocol. Across four benchmarks, GDCE-I outperforms related work by a large margin on the defined framework. For the molecular domain, we further qualitatively show that GDCE-I attains interpretable in-distribution solutions.

arXiv

Direct Acceleration of Stochastic Root-Finding Without Variance Reduction and Regularization

TaeHo Yoon, Nicolas Loizou

Acceleration for deterministic root-finding problems has been extensively studied in recent years; specifically, the anchor-based, or Halpern-type methods achieve optimal convergence rates with respect to the operator norm. However, acceleration via these methods does not directly carry over to stochastic setting due to accumulation of errors, unless one enforces diminishing variance via increasing batch sizes or variance reduction techniques. In this work, we show that another class of acceleration, namely the dual-anchor mechanism, extends to the stochastic setting without such error accumulation, in contrast to anchor-based algorithms. Consequently, we cleanly achieve $O(ε^{-3})$ complexity with iteration-independent batch size, without any variance reduction or double-loop recursive regularization, for stochastic root-finding (resp. fixed-point) problems with cocoercivity (resp. square-nonexpansivity) in expectation. For strongly monotone operators, the same algorithm attains a sharper $\widetilde{O} (ε^{-2})$ complexity, nearly matching the lower bound in terms of $ε$-dependence.

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