UAI 2025 Papers

Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

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229papers

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Expert-In-The-Loop Causal Discovery: Iterative Model Refinement Using Expert Knowledge

Ankur Ankan, Johannes Textor

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Many researchers construct directed acyclic graph (DAG) models manually based on domain knowledge. Although numerous causal discovery algorithms were developed to automatically learn DAGs and other causal models from data, these remain challenging to use due to their tendency to produce results that contradict domain knowledge, among other issues. Here we propose a hybrid, iterative structure learning approach that combines domain knowledge with data-driven insights to assist researchers in constructing DAGs. Our method leverages conditional independence testing to iteratively identify variable pairs where an edge is either missing or superfluous. Based on this information, we can choose to add missing edges with appropriate orientation based on domain knowledge or remove unnecessary ones. We also give a method to rank these missing edges based on their impact on the overall model fit. In a simulation study, we find that this iterative approach to leverage domain knowledge already starts outperforming purely data-driven structure learning if the orientation of new edge is correctly determined in at least two out of three cases. We present a proof-of-concept implementation using a large language model as a domain expert and a graphical user interface designed to assist human experts with DAG construction.

Accept
MOHITO: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning using Hypergraphs for Task-Open Systems

Gayathri Anil, Prashant Doshi, Daniel Alan Redder, Adam Eck, Leen-Kiat Soh

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Open agent systems are prevalent in the real world, where the sets of agents and tasks change over time. In this paper, we focus on task-open multi-agent systems, exemplified by applications such as ridesharing, where passengers (tasks) appear spontaneously over time and disappear if not attended to promptly. Task-open settings challenge us with an action space which changes dynamically. This renders existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods–intended for fixed state and action spaces–inapplicable. Whereas multi-task learning approaches learn policies generalized to multiple known and related tasks, they struggle to adapt to previously unseen tasks. Conversely, lifelong learning adapts to new tasks over time, but generally assumes that tasks come sequentially from a static and known distribution rather than simultaneously and unpredictably. We introduce a novel category of RL for addressing task openness, modeled using a task-open Markov game. Our approach, MOHITO, is a multi-agent actor-critic schema which represents knowledge about the relationships between agents and changing tasks and actions as dynamically evolving 3-uniform hypergraphs. As popular multi-agent RL testbeds do not exhibit task openness, we evaluate MOHITO on two realistic and naturally task-open domains to establish its efficacy and provide a benchmark for future work in this setting.

Accept
Symbiotic Local Search for Small Decision Tree Policies in MDPs

Roman Andriushchenko, Milan Češka, Debraj Chakraborty, Sebastian Junges, Jan Kretinsky, Filip Macák

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We study decision making policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Two key performance indicators of such policies are their value and their interpretability. On the one hand, policies that optimize value can be efficiently computed via a plethora of standard methods. However, the representation of these policies may prevent their interpretability. On the other hand, policies with good interpretability, such as policies represented by a small decision tree, are computationally hard to obtain. This paper contributes a local search approach to find policies with good value, represented by small decision trees. Our local search symbiotically combines learning decision trees from value-optimal policies with symbolic approaches that optimize the size of the decision tree within a constrained neighborhood. Our empirical evaluation shows that this combination provides drastically smaller decision trees for MDPs that are significantly larger than what can be handled by optimal decision tree learners.

Accept
Sparse Structure Exploration and Re-optimization for Vision Transformer

Sangho An, Jinwoo Kim, Keonho Lee, Jingang Huh, Chanwoong Kwak, Yujin Lee, Moonsub Jin, Jangho Kim

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Vision Transformers (ViTs) achieve outstanding performance by effectively capturing long-range dependencies between image patches (tokens). However, the high computational cost and memory requirements of ViTs present challenges for model compression and deployment on edge devices. In this study, we introduce a new framework, Sparse Structure Exploration and Re-optimization (SERo), specifically designed to maximize pruning efficiency in ViTs. Our approach focuses on (1) hardware-friendly pruning that fully compresses pruned parameters instead of zeroing them out, (2) separating the exploration and re-optimization phases in order to find the optimal structure among various possible sparse structures, and (3) using a simple gradient magnitude-based criterion for pruning a pre-trained model. SERo iteratively refines pruning masks to identify optimal sparse structures and then re-optimizes the pruned structure, reducing computational costs while maintaining model performance. Experimental results indicate that SERo surpasses existing pruning methods across various ViT models in both performance and computational efficiency. For example, SERo achieves a 69

Accept
Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Under Hidden Confounders

Ahmed Aloui, Juncheng Dong, Ali Hasan, Vahid Tarokh

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One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with observational data, conditional unconfoundedness is commonly assumed in the literature of CATE estimation. Nevertheless, under this assumption, CATE estimation can be significantly biased due to the effects of unobserved confounders. In this work, we consider the case where in addition to a potentially large observational dataset, a small dataset from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is available. Notably, we make no assumptions on the existence of any covariate information for the RCT dataset, we only require the outcomes to be observed. We propose a CATE estimation method based on a pseudo-confounder generator and a CATE model that aligns the learned potential outcomes from the observational data with those observed from the RCT. Our method is applicable to many practical scenarios of interest, particularly those where privacy is a concern (e.g., medical applications). Extensive numerical experiments are provided demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach for both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Accept
CATE Estimation With Potential Outcome Imputation From Local Regression

Ahmed Aloui, Juncheng Dong, Cat Phuoc Le, Vahid Tarokh

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One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method for CATE estimation. First, we derive regret bounds for general data augmentation methods suggesting that a small imputation error may be necessary for accurate CATE estimation. Inspired by this idea, we propose a contrastive learning approach that reliably imputes missing potential outcomes for a selected subset of individuals formed using a similarity measure. We augment the original dataset with these reliable imputations to reduce the discrepancy between different treatment groups while inducing minimal imputation error. The augmented dataset can subsequently be employed to train standard CATE estimation models. We provide both theoretical guarantees and extensive numerical studies demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in improving the accuracy and robustness of numerous CATE estimation models.

Accept
Conformal Prediction for Federated Graph Neural Networks with Missing Neighbor Information

Ömer Faruk Akgül, Rajgopal Kannan, Viktor Prasanna

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Uncertainty quantification is essential for reliable federated graph learning, yet existing methods struggle with decentralized and heterogeneous data. In this work, we first extend Conformal Prediction (CP), a well-established method for uncertainty quantification, to federated graph learning, formalizing conditions for CP validity under partial exchangeability across distributed subgraphs. We prove that our approach maintains rigorous coverage guarantees even with client-specific data distributions. Building on this foundation, we address a key challenge in federated graph learning: missing neighbor information, which inflates CP set sizes and reduces efficiency. To mitigate this, we propose a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based architecture that reconstructs missing neighbors while preserving data privacy. Empirical evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: our theoretically grounded federated training strategy reduces CP set sizes by 15.4

Accept
Causal Inference amid Missingness-Specific Independences and Mechanism Shifts

Johan de Aguas, Leonard Henckel, Johan Pensar, Guido Biele

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The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on m-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can alter decision-making processes, as the absence of key information may affect downstream actions and states. To overcome this limitation, we introduce lm-SCMs and lm-graphs, which extend m-graphs by integrating a label set that represents relevant context-specific independencies (CSI), accounting for mechanism shifts induced by missingness. We define two causal effects within these systems: the Full Average Treatment Effect (FATE), which reflects the effect in a hypothetical scenario had no data been missing, and the Natural Average Treatment Effect (NATE), which captures the effect under the unaltered CSIs in the system. We propose recovery criteria for these queries and present doubly-robust estimators for a graphical model inspired by a real-world application. Simulations highlight key differences between these estimands and estimation methods. Findings from the application case suggest a small effect of ADHD treatment upon test achievement among Norwegian children, with a slight effect shift due to missing pre-tests scores.

Accept
Aggregating Data for Optimal Learning

Sushant Agarwal, Yukti Makhija, Rishi Saket, Aravindan Raghuveer

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Multiple Instance Regression (MIR) and Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) are useful learning frameworks, where the training data is partitioned into disjoint sets or bags, and only an aggregate label, i.e., bag-label for each bag is available to the learner. In the case of MIR, the bag-label is the label of an undisclosed instance from the bag, while in LLP, the bag-label is the mean of the bag’s labels. In this paper, we study for various loss functions in MIR and LLP, what is the optimal way to partition the dataset into bags such that the utility for downstream tasks like linear regression is maximized. We theoretically provide utility guarantees, and show that in each case, the optimal bagging strategy (approximately) reduces to finding an optimal clustering of the feature vectors and/or the labels with respect to natural objectives such as k-means. We also show that our bagging mechanisms can be made label-differentially private, incurring an additional utility error. We then generalize our results to the setting of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). Finally, we experimentally validate our theoretical results.

Accept