NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

6,437papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    991.5%
  • Spotlight
    2403.7%
  • Poster
    6,09894.7%

Browse all papers

ViCO: A Training Strategy towards Semantic Aware Dynamic High-Resolution

Long Cui, Weiyun Wang, Jie Shao, Zichen Wen, Gen Luo, Zhang, Linfeng Zhang, Wenhai Wang

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Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) suffer from increased inference costs due to the additional vision tokens introduced by image inputs. In this work, we propose Visual Consistency Learning (ViCO), a novel training algorithm that enables the model to represent images of varying semantic complexities using different numbers of vision tokens. The key idea behind our method is to employ multiple MLP connectors, each with a different image compression ratio, to downsample the vision tokens based on the semantic complexity of the image. During training, we minimize the KL divergence between the responses conditioned on different MLP connectors. At inference time, we introduce an image router, termed Visual Resolution Router (ViR), that automatically selects the appropriate compression rate for each image patch. Compared with existing dynamic high-resolution strategies, which adjust the number of visual tokens based on image resolutions, our method dynamically adapts the number of visual tokens according to semantic complexity. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can reduce the number of vision tokens by up to 50% while maintaining the model’s perception, reasoning, and OCR capabilities. We hope this work will contribute to the development of more efficient MLLMs. The code and models will be released to facilitate future research.

Poster
Uncertainty Quantification for Multimodal Large Language Models with Incoherence-adjusted Semantic Volume

Gregory Kang Ruey Lau, Hieu Dao, Nicole Hui Lin Kan, Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

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Despite their capabilities, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) may produce plausible but erroneous outputs, hindering reliable deployment. Accurate uncertainty metrics could enable escalation of unreliable queries to human experts or larger models for improved performance. However, existing uncertainty metrics have practical constraints, such as being designed only for specific modalities, reliant on external tools, or computationally expensive. We introduce UMPIRE, a training-free uncertainty quantification framework for MLLMs that works efficiently across various input and output modalities without external tools, relying only on the models' own internal modality features. UMPIRE computes the incoherence-adjusted semantic volume of sampled MLLM responses for a given task instance, effectively capturing both the global semantic diversity of samples and the local incoherence of responses based on internal model confidence. We provide theoretical analysis motivating UMPIRE's design. Extensive experiments show that UMPIRE consistently outperforms baseline metrics in error detection and uncertainty calibration across image, audio, and video-text benchmarks, including adversarial and out-of-distribution settings. We also demonstrate UMPIRE’s generalization to non-text output tasks, including image and audio generation.

Poster
UNICOM: Unified Multimodal Modeling via Compressed Continuous Semantic Representations

Yaqi Zhao, Wang Lin, Zijian Zhang, Jian Zhang, Zhao Zhong, Liefeng Bo, Jingyuan Chen, Wentao Zhang

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Current unified multimodal models typically rely on discrete visual tokenizers to bridge the modality gap. However, discretization inevitably discards fine-grained semantic information, leading to suboptimal performance in visual understanding tasks. Conversely, directly modeling continuous semantic representations (e.g., CLIP, SigLIP) poses significant challenges in high-dimensional generative modeling, resulting in slow convergence and training instability. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce UniCom, a unified framework that harmonizes multimodal understanding and generation via compressed continuous semantic representations. We empirically demonstrate that channel-wise compression is significantly more effective than spatial token reduction, retaining competitive VAE-free reconstruction fidelity while substantially improving generative convergence. Accordingly, we design an attention-based semantic compressor to distill dense features into a compact unified representation. A Transfusion-style predictor then generates these compressed latents with dense spatial correspondence. At scale, UniCom achieves competitive text-to-image generation and state-of-the-art performance on complex image editing without relying on VAE latents. The gains are especially clear on knowledge-intensive benchmarks.

Poster
The Locality Cost of Semantic Patch Self-Distillation

Xi Weng, Zhaoyu Liu, Lianyu Hu, Jin Song Dong

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Masked patch self-distillation has become a default ingredient of modern joint-embedding pretraining, and is widely regarded as a uniform enhancement of dense visual representations. In this work, we revisit this assumption and argue that its effect is more nuanced. Through controlled experiments across multiple joint-embedding objectives and model scales, we observe a consistent tension: while the auxiliary patch objective strengthens semantic abstraction, it systematically erodes fine-grained spatial correspondence. To examine this phenomenon beyond the reach of human-annotated benchmarks, we introduce annotation-free diagnostics that probe how much local visual evidence remains accessible in the learned representation. We further provide a population-level theoretical analysis showing that this trade-off is not incidental but follows directly from the conditional nature of masked semantic prediction, under which target variation unpredictable from visible context is provably averaged out. Taken together, our findings recast masked patch self-distillation as an explicit trade-off between semantic abstraction and local detail, rather than a uniform improvement to dense features.

Poster
Semantic Search over 9 Million Mathematical Theorems

Luke Alexander, Eric Leonen, Sophie Szeto, Artemii Remizov, Ignacio Tejeda, Jarod Alper, Giovanni Inchiostro, Vasily Ilin

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Searching for mathematical results remains difficult: most existing tools retrieve entire papers, while mathematicians and theorem-proving agents often seek a specific theorem, lemma, or proposition that answers a query. While semantic search has seen rapid progress, its behavior on large, highly technical corpora such as research-level mathematical theorems remains poorly understood. In this work, we introduce and study semantic theorem retrieval at scale over a unified corpus of 9.2 million theorem statements extracted from arXiv and seven other sources, representing the largest publicly available corpus of human-authored, research-level theorems. We represent each theorem with a short natural-language description as a retrieval representation and systematically analyze how representation context, language model choice, embedding model, and prompting strategy affect retrieval quality. On a curated evaluation set of theorem-search queries written by professional mathematicians, our approach substantially improves both theorem-level and paper-level retrieval compared to existing baselines, demonstrating that semantic theorem search is feasible and effective at web scale. The project page, search tool, dataset, REST API, and MCP server are available at [Redacted]

Poster
Semantic Freedom Bottleneck for Domain-Generalized Multimodal Face Anti-Spoofing

Yingjie Ma, Haonan Wang, Xun Lin, Hui Ma, Ruixin Zhang, Jingyun Zhang, Jun Wang, Rizen Guo, Shouhong Ding, Weicheng Xie, Linlin Shen, Zitong Yu

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Multimodal face anti-spoofing (FAS) improves spoof detection by combining complementary RGB, infrared, and depth cues, yet its generalization to unseen domains remains fragile. We revisit multimodal domain-generalized FAS from the perspective of representation freedom. In a controlled CLIP-based post-fusion baseline, increasing visual encoder depth does not monotonically improve cross-domain performance, suggesting that higher-capacity representations may introduce additional degrees of freedom that are not necessarily aligned with real-vs-spoof semantics. To inspect this effect, we introduce the Semantic Dominance Ratio (SDR), a diagnostic statistic that measures the relative proportion of feature variation along the text-defined real-vs-spoof semantic axis versus off-axis residual directions. Motivated by this perspective, we propose Semantic Freedom Bottleneck (SFB), which reparameterizes multimodal features around CLIP text geometry. SFB decomposes each representation into a semantic component along the real-vs-spoof axis and a bounded low-rank residual component for modality-specific evidence. The residual basis is regularized to be orthogonal to the semantic axis, encouraging the residual space to retain complementary modality-specific cues without duplicating the task-semantic direction. This yields a conservative multimodal constraint that preserves discriminative real/spoof semantics while limiting unconstrained non-semantic variation. Experiments on WMCA, CASIA-CeFA, PADISI, and CASIA-SURF under fixed-modality, missing-modality, and limited-source protocols demonstrate consistently strong cross-domain performance.

Poster
SemMSA: Latent Semantic-Aided Robust Multimodal Sentiment Analysis with Incomplete Data

Wenhao Li, Zhibin Wu, Chong Xiao, Qiangchang Wang

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Recent research on Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) has focused on learning from language, visual, and acoustic modalities with incomplete data to infer human sentiment. Most studies typically compensate for missing information by reconstructing modality features or designing complicated fusion mechanisms. However, these methods still suffer from spurious generation and noisy guidance due to the lack of high-level semantic grounding in partially observed multimodal evidence. To address these issues, we propose SemMSA, a latent semantic-aided framework that constructs rich sentiment-relevant semantics with LLMs, fully integrating with all modalities via anchor-free spectral alignment. It mainly consists of Cross-modal Semantic Refinement (CSR) and Cross-modal Spectral Alignment (CSA). Specifically, CSR first adaptively extracts visual and acoustic representations by corresponding adapters to form a unified multimodal prefix with language in the frozen LLM embedding space. It then iteratively produces continuous discriminative semantic states through a token-efficient latent refinement process without decoding explicit text. Next, CSA simultaneously aligns the refined semantics with all modalities by enhancing the dominant spectral component of their kernel Gram matrix. This captures global nonlinear dependencies among all representations without relying on a predefined anchor modality. In addition, an instance-level spectral separation constraint preserves cross-sample discriminability and mitigates representation collapse. Extensive experiments on SIMS, MOSI, and MOSEI benchmarks demonstrate that SemMSA achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Poster
SCG-HF: Semantic Consistency Grouping for Hierarchical Fusion in Video Emotion Recognition

Muci Li, Yujing Rao, He Li, Mang Ye

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Video Emotion Recognition (VER) aims to identify and understand the emotional states of characters by analyzing visual and auditory information in videos. However, conventional rigid frame sampling strategies for long videos tend to fragment continuous emotional expressions. Moreover, existing fusion methods often fail to properly model temporal dependencies and may suffer from future information leakage. To address these limitations, we propose SCG-HF, a novel framework that preserves semantic consistency through adaptive grouping and hierarchical fusion. Specifically, we introduce Semantic Consistency Grouping (SCG), which dynamically segments videos into semantically coherent units based on feature similarity, thereby maintaining the integrity of emotional patterns. Furthermore, we design a three-level Hierarchical Fusion (HF) architecture to capture emotional dynamics at different temporal granularities: (i) frame-level refinement enhances subtle local emotional cues; (ii) segment-level history-guided fusion models temporal evolution across segments while strictly preventing future information leakage via attention; and (iii) sample-level contrastive alignment synchronizes audio and visual representations in a shared latent space. Extensive experiments on the VideoEmotion-8 and Ekman-6 benchmarks demonstrate that SCG-HF achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Poster
S-EDL: Eliciting Self-Evidence from Sequence Likelihoods for Semantic Calibration of LLMs

Yawei Li, Jiazheng Li, David Rügamer, Bernd Bischl, Yulan He, Mina Rezaei

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Calibrating large language models (LLMs) in open-ended generation is uniquely challenging because many distinct token sequences can express the same underlying meaning. Prior calibration techniques target either fixed-set classification confidence or the binary correctness of individual strings, making them inherently ill-suited for the dynamic, multi-string nature of open-ended semantic outcomes. To bridge this gap, we introduce S-EDL, a novel evidential method that natively optimizes LLMs for semantic calibration. By eliciting evidence from the sequence likelihoods of the model itself, S-EDL constructs a differentiable Dirichlet prior over prompt-specific semantic classes. Optimizing the evidential loss under this prior yields a calibration-aware training signal over variable semantic classes, completely bypassing the need for fixed multiple-choice options. Evaluations across four open-ended benchmarks and three models demonstrate that S-EDL substantially reduces semantic calibration error while improving accuracy. By aligning generative likelihoods with semantic correctness, this work establishes a framework for deploying trustworthy LLMs in complex, open-ended applications.

Poster
Position: Semantic Uncertainty Measures Disagreement, Not Reliability

Joseph Hoche, Maxime Corlay, David Brellmann, Andrei Bursuc, Pavel Izmailov, Angela Yao, Gianni Franchi

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Large Language Models and their multi-modal variants see increasingly rapid adoption and deployment, including in settings where reliability matters. However their uncertainty remains difficult to assess as classic or early token-level approaches cannot deal with the open-ended outputs of such models. Semantic uncertainty arises as a promising solution to the limits of token-level confidence by measuring disagreement among multiple generated responses. This position paper argues that this framing is incomplete: semantic uncertainty measures semantic disagreement, not actual reliability. A model can be uncertain while producing several valid answers, or certain while repeatedly producing the same wrong answer. We introduce a semantic bias–uncertainty decomposition to show that reliability depends both on variability across meanings and systematic deviation from correct or grounded meanings. This perspective reveals that common hallucination-detection evaluations conflate uncertainty with error. We argue for reliability-centered evaluation that separates semantic disagreement, correctness, and enables a more fine-grained characterization of uncertainty beyond the level of the full answer.

Poster
Off-Policy Evaluation of Large Language Models via Learned Semantic Bottleneck Embeddings

Younwoo Choi, Hadi Sheikhi, Leo Feng, Haanvid Lee

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Evaluating large language models (LLMs) via online human feedback is prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. Off-policy evaluation (OPE) addresses this by estimating LLM policy performance from offline data. However, traditional OPE estimators such as Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) suffer from high variance. Marginalized IPS (MIPS) addresses this variance issue by reweighting the IPS weights via condensed semantic embeddings. However, MIPS assumes embeddings contain sufficient reward-predictive information, an assumption that off-the-shelf embeddings often fail to satisfy. To address this, in this paper, we propose Semantic Bottleneck Embedding (SBE), which learns representations for marginalized reweighting via a conditional information bottleneck, compressing reward-irrelevant information while preserving reward-predictive content to achieve both bias and variance reduction. Our objective targets minimizing the derived mean squared error upper bound of the resulting MIPS estimator. Empirically, evaluation on the HelpSteer2 and UltraFeedback datasets across Qwen, Gemma, and Llama policies show SBE-MIPS reduces MSE over prior baselines.

Poster
MPDocBench-Parse: Benchmarking Practical Multi-page Document Parsing

Bangbang Zhou, Hangdi Xing, Yifan Chen, Jianjun Xu, Qi Zheng, Feiyu Gao, Zhibo Yang, Shuai Bai, Ming Yan, Jieping Ye, Hongtao Xie

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Document parsing converts visually rich documents into machine-readable structured representations, forming a crucial foundation for information systems. Although many benchmarks have been proposed for document parsing, they remain inadequate for realistic scenarios. Existing benchmarks either focus on specific tasks or assess only single-page, text-centric settings, making them insufficient for practical multi-page parsing. Moreover, they lack fine-grained evaluation of semantic continuity, hierarchical structure recovery, and visual content preservation. To address these gaps, we propose MPDocBench-Parse, a benchmark for multi-page document parsing in real-world applications. It contains 433 manually annotated documents with 3,246 pages, covering 15 document types in English and Chinese, with diverse layout styles, and supports document-level end-to-end evaluation. We further design a comprehensive protocol for content fidelity and logical structure, covering text, table, and formula recognition, truncated text and table merging, figure extraction, reading order, and heading hierarchy recovery. Experiments show that, while existing models perform well on basic text extraction, they still suffer clear limitations in semantic continuity integration, visual content parsing, and hierarchical structure recovery. MPDocBench-Parse provides a unified foundation for advancing document parsing toward more realistic scenarios.

Poster
Learning a Unified Cross-Model Semantic Dictionary via Gated Bottleneck Sparse Autoencoders

Jinchi Zhu, Tie Luo

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Foundation models pretrained on similar data distributions tend to encode semantically aligned concepts; yet these representations remain entangled with model-specific inductive biases, which hinders both unified interpretability and cross-model feature reuse. Existing approaches address this by aligning concepts across model-specific representation spaces, but do not explicitly account for model-specific biases, resulting in limited cross-model reconstruction fidelity (low $R^2$) and poor feature transferability. We propose the *Gated Bottleneck Sparse Autoencoder* (GB-SAE), a framework that takes multiple—homogeneous or heterogeneous—foundation models as input and factorizes their representations into shared and private components. GB-SAE jointly learns a single model-agnostic semantic dictionary and, for each model, a private residual dictionary, via a learnable gating mechanism that encourages competition between the two. Conceptually, we cast unified multi-model interpretability as a representation factorization problem and solve it through bottlenecked sparse dictionary learning. Empirically, GB-SAE achieves unified and faithful interpretability across diverse architectures, high reusability of the learned shared dictionary, and strong generalization to downstream tasks—capabilities that alignment-based paradigms, by design, cannot fully support.

Poster
Learning Sparse Semantic-Cortical Atoms for Multisubject Naturalistic fMRI Encoding

Alicia Zeng

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Naturalistic language encoding models based on large language model features can predict cortical responses well, but their learned representations remain difficult to interpret. Three challenges are central: semantic selectivity is fundamentally non-identifiable in high-dimensional correlated feature spaces, cortical organization remains implicit in voxelwise weight maps, and cross-subject structure is usually addressed only after model fitting. We introduce a multisubject coupled sparse autoencoder that jointly reconstructs language-model features and predicts subject-specific brain responses, learning a sparse basis of semantic-cortical atoms that makes semantic structure, cortical organization, and cross-subject correspondence explicit within a single model. In naturalistic story-listening fMRI, the model retains 88\% of matched dense-feature ridge brain prediction performance using 50 atoms and $k{=}5$ active atoms per TR. Relative to matched two-stage baselines, joint training yields the strongest overall tradeoff between prediction and interpretability. The learned atoms are semantically coherent and interpretable, recover more reproducible cross-subject brain maps than standard post hoc encoding-model analyses, align with large-scale cortical structure from Yeo~7 and Neurosynth, and transfer better than ridge to held-out subjects in the low-data regime. This framework provides a more interpretable basis for cognitive neuroscience analyses of semantic-to-brain encoding by linking semantic features to corresponding cortical response patterns across subjects.

Oral
Hide to Guide: Learning via Semantic Masking

Ruitao Liu, Qinghao Hu, Alex Hu, Yecheng Wu, Shang Yang, Luke J Huang, Zhuoyang Zhang, Han Cai, Song Han

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Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a powerful paradigm for improving language models on reasoning-intensive tasks, but its effectiveness is often limited by exploration. For example, models often fail on hard problems, leaving little useful reward signal. External expert traces offer a natural source of guidance, yet they may also expose reward-relevant content along the critical path to the verifier target, such as final answers, intermediate values, executable implementations, or answer-related entities. This content can create an unintended reward hacking channel, allowing the policy to obtain reward by copying the trace rather than learning the underlying reasoning or agentic behavior. Existing guided-RL methods reduce this risk by using partial trajectories, but they mainly control how much expert information is shown heuristically rather than which parts should be hidden. To this end, we propose Semantic Masked Expert Policy Optimization (SMEPO), a fine-grained semantic masking strategy for expert-guided RLVR. Instead of truncating traces coarsely or revealing them unchanged, SMEPO masks reward-relevant semantic spans along the critical path while preserving the expert’s decomposition, plan, and procedural structure. This turns hard problems from reasoning from scratch into a fill-in-the-blank process: the policy can follow the expert’s problem-solving route, but must still reconstruct the missing values, code, or entities by itself. SMEPO is simple to apply and requires no changes to the reward function or RL objective. Across diverse domains, including math, code, and agentic search, SMEPO improves accuracy by up to 3.2 points over GRPO and reduces training time by up to 4.2$\times$.

Poster
Forest-Guided Semantic Transport for Label-Supervised Manifold Alignment

Adrien Aumon, Myriam Lizotte, Guy Wolf, Kevin Moon, Jake Rhodes

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Label-supervised manifold alignment bridges the gap between unsupervised and correspondence-based paradigms by leveraging shared label information to align multimodal datasets. Still, most existing methods rely on Euclidean geometry to model intra-domain relationships. This approach can fail when features are only weakly related to the task of interest, leading to noisy, semantically misleading structure and degraded alignment quality. To address this limitation, we introduce FoSTA (Forest-guided Semantic Transport Alignment), a scalable alignment framework that leverages forest-induced geometry to denoise intra-domain structure and recover task-relevant manifolds prior to alignment. FoSTA builds semantic representations directly from label-informed forest affinities and aligns them via fast, hierarchical semantic transport, capturing meaningful cross-domain relationships. Extensive comparisons with established baselines demonstrate that FoSTA improves correspondence recovery and label transfer on synthetic benchmarks and delivers strong performance in practical single-cell applications, including batch correction and biological conservation.

Poster
Face Deepfake-aware Recovery via Semantic-driven Facial Representation-based Watermarking

Yuan-Chih Chen, Chun-Shien Lu

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Existing image watermarking methods typically entangle visual content with spatial structure, making them highly sensitive to geometric transformations and alignment discrepancies, especially in the presence of deepfake manipulations. In this paper, we propose a semantic-driven facial watermarking framework for robust identity recovery. The key idea is to decouple identity-related semantic information from spatial layout and encode it into a compact and spatially robust semantic representation. Specifically, we decompose a face into semantic components and aggregate deep features into component-wise latent representations, which are quantized via independent codebooks and converted into a compact bitstream for embedding. After decoding, the embedded semantic information is recovered and used to reconstruct identity-consistent facial content, even under slight geometric distortions and tampering. Experiments on CelebA-HQ and FFHQ demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing watermarking approaches in terms of reconstruction quality, identity preservation, and retrieval accuracy under both photometric and geometric attacks, validating the effectiveness of semantic component-wise encoding for reliable face recovery.

Poster
Evidential Semantic Uncertainty Decomposition for Large Language Models

Kangshuo Li, Tianhao Wang, Yifan Zhang, Lance Kaplan, Audun Jøsang, DONG HYUN JEONG, Jin-Hee Cho, Feng Chen

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Free-form language generation poses a challenge for uncertainty quantification because responses do not belong to a fixed global label space. Semantic-entropy methods address this issue by sampling responses, clustering them by meaning, and estimating uncertainty over prompt-specific semantic classes. However, they mainly measure semantic dispersion and do not provide a principled decomposition into aleatoric and epistemic components, which in our setting correspond to ambiguity among plausible semantic meanings and insufficiency of model support, respectively. Moreover, cluster frequencies depend on the sampling budget and should not be treated as evidential strength. We propose a prompt-level evidential probing framework for semantic uncertainty decomposition in LLM generation. For each prompt, sampled responses define a dynamic semantic frame and provide initial support for the corresponding semantic classes. A lightweight evidence-retention probe learns how much of this support should be retained as reliable semantic evidence. The retained evidence induces a subjective opinion in which dissonance captures conflict among supported semantic alternatives and vacuity captures insufficient retained evidence. To train the probe, we introduce Augmented Semantic Uncertainty Cross-Entropy (AS-UCE), an LLM-specific evidential objective that augments the prompt-specific semantic frame with an unsupported class, allowing unreliable or hallucinated support to be routed away from observed semantic clusters during training. Experiments across four LLM backbones show that our framework consistently improves task-relevant AUROC and AUPR, with average AUROC gains of 7.4\% for OOD detection and 4\% for ambiguity detection over the competitive baselines, while requiring fewer sampled responses than perturbation-based decomposition methods.

Poster
Emergent Semantic Role Understanding in Language Models

Carla Griffiths, Mirco Musolesi

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Understanding how linguistic structure emerges in language models is central to interpreting what these systems learn from data and how much supervision they truly require. In particular, semantic role understanding (``who did what to whom’’) is a core component of meaning representation, yet it remains unclear whether it arises from pre-training alone or depends on task-specific fine-tuning. In this paper, we study whether semantic role understanding emerges during language model pre-training or requires task-specific fine-tuning. We freeze decoder-only transformers and train linear probes to extract semantic roles, using performance to infer whether role information is already encoded in pre-training or learned during adaptation. Across model scales, we find that frozen representations contain substantial semantic role information, with performance improving but not fully matching fine-tuned models. This indicates partial but incomplete emergence from pre-training alone. We show that semantic role structure emerges from language modeling objectives, but its internal implementation shifts toward more distributed representations as model scale increases.

Poster
Do Semantic Distance Tests Actually Predict Creativity in Large Language Models?

Samuel Schapiro, Alexi Gladstone, Jonah Black, Heng Ji

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Automated semantic distance tests—which prompt a model to produce a set of words, and score the average embedding distance between them—are increasingly used to measure the "creativity" of large language models (LLMs). However, the validity of semantic distance tests as predictors of *machine* creativity has not yet been established, and these tests already have limited validity as predictors of human creativity. To address this problem, we conduct the first systematic study evaluating the effectiveness of semantic distance tests in predicting the creative achievement of LLMs across three constructs: creative writing, divergent thinking, and scientific ideation. We score each test on two criteria (*validity* and *specificity*), and derive a theoretical limit for the maximum attainable specificity and validity a test can achieve. We find that: **(1)** Test effectiveness varies significantly by construct, and no single test predicts all constructs well. **(2)** None of the tests is a good predictor of scientific ideation ability. **(3)** Existing tests are far below the theoretical limits, indicating meaningful room for the design of improved tests moving forward. Our findings provide clear practical takeaways and directions for future work and suggest that novel tests are needed to reliably predict scientific ideation ability.

Poster