NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Probabilistic neurosymbolic methods rely on weighted model counting (WMC) to combine neural predictors with symbolic constraints. Exact computation of the WMC, a \#P-hard problem, typically scales poorly, so many methods resort to approximations. By unifying existing approaches under a three-step bottom-up *approximate compilation* pipeline, we study *where* approximation budget is best allocated. Inspired by tensor networks, we instantiate two steps with tensor train decompositions: we derive new pipelines that exactly multiply approximated factors and recompress their products via SVD- or interpolation-based schemes. On Sudokus of increasing size, these pipelines produce WMC estimates that are many orders-of-magnitude more accurate than prior methods. Yet, when it comes to neurosymbolic learning, even crude approximations reach competitive accuracy, suggesting that approximation quality matters far more for inference fidelity than for downstream learning. Our pipelines open significant design space for effective approximate compilation of challenging probabilistic reasoning tasks.

Pairwise constrained clustering typically relies on hard must-link/cannot-link labels, whereas realistic pairwise supervision may be real-valued and entangle intrinsic ambiguity, expert judgment, and stochastic corruption. Existing deep constrained clustering (DCC) methods mainly target hard, expert-agnostic constraints, treating soft labels mostly numerically rather than semantically. We formalize this setting as uncertainty-aware probabilistic constrained clustering (UPCC), defining a canonical aleatoric target through a heterogeneous observation process and analyzing its conditional identifiability. We introduce ProbPair, an angular pairwise objective for probabilistic relations, and build ECI-PP, an estimator--corrector--integrator framework that refines imperfect supervision via belief estimation, correction, and reliability-aware integration. Across challenging probabilistic supervision settings, experiments on diverse benchmarks show that ECI-PP outperforms state-of-the-art DCC methods and remains robust with a shared default configuration.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are deep generative models that support exact and efficient probabilistic inference. Yet in autoregressive language modeling, PCs still lag behind Transformer-based large language models (LLMs), suggesting an important expressivity gap. In this work, we compare PCs and LLMs under a unified autoregressive formulation. First, an output bottleneck: PCs parameterize predictions as convex combinations in probability space, which struggles to represent the sharp distributions typical of language; adopting a logit-space parameterization substantially narrows this gap. Second, a context-encoding bottleneck: we prove that structured-decomposable PCs can match Transformer separation rank on vtree-aligned partitions, but show, both theoretically and empirically, that this capacity is limited to partitions aligned with the fixed routing structure, leading to severe degradation when the data exhibits heterogeneous dependency topologies. We further prove that decomposable PCs are strictly more expressive than structured-decomposable ones, though effectively optimizing them remains an open challenge.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) learn to sample states proportional to an unnormalized reward. Despite their theoretical promise, practical training is often unstable, exhibiting severe loss spikes and mode collapse. To address this, we first assess the sensitivity of GFlowNet objectives, demonstrating that a small Total Variation (TV) distance between the learned and target distributions does not preclude an unbounded training loss. Motivated by this mismatch, we establish converse guarantees by deriving loss-to-TV bounds that certify global fidelity from bounded trajectory balance losses. Lastly, we propose \emph{Stable GFlowNets}, which leverages our theory to stabilize training via adaptive reference flow and improves the trade-off among mode coverage, robustness, and certifiability.

Few-shot object detection (FSOD) requires detectors to adapt to novel categories from only a few labeled instances, where prototype-based transfer methods have become a strong and efficient paradigm. However, we observe that such methods remain unstable in extreme low-shot regimes. We attribute this instability to two coupled factors: semantically unanchored query initialization, which yields high-variance cold-start optimization, and deterministic prototype matching, which over-trusts noisy or occluded support regions. To address these limitations, we propose Semantic Fine-Grained Prototype Distillation (SFPD), a language-conditioned probabilistic adaptation framework for prototype-based FSOD. SFPD introduces language-conditioned feature queries to provide semantic anchors for novel-class adaptation, uncertainty-aware prototype distillation to down-weight unreliable support evidence through heteroscedastic Gaussian modeling, and component-guided part-aware prototypes to refine fine-grained semantic-visual alignment. These modules act during adaptation and preserve the original detector path at inference, introducing no additional inference FLOPs. Experiments on PASCAL VOC and MS-COCO show that SFPD consistently improves a strong FPD baseline, with especially clear gains in the most challenging low-shot settings, e.g., a 3.9-point nAP50 improvement on VOC Split 2 under 1-shot. Further ablations, multi-seed evaluation, and convergence analysis indicate that SFPD improves both accuracy and adaptation stability.

The Gromov--Wasserstein (GW) problem provides a framework for aligning heterogeneous datasets by matching their intrinsic geometry, but its statistical and computational scaling remains an issue for high-dimensional problems. Slicing techniques offer an appealing route to scalability, but, unlike Wasserstein distances, GW problems do not generally admit closed-form solutions in one-dimension. We resolve this problem for the GW problem with inner product cost (IGW), propose a sliced IGW distance that enjoys a natural rotational invariance property, and comprehensively study its structural and computational properties. Numerical experiments validating our theory are presented, followed by applications to heterogeneous clustering of text data and language model representation comparison.

Score-based variational inference (VI) provides an alternative to Kullback--Leibler (KL)-based VI by minimizing the Fisher divergence between the variational distribution and the target. Existing eigenvalue-based score-VI methods face two high-dimensional obstacles: exponential parameter growth and instability under degenerate or nearly degenerate low-energy eigenspaces. We propose QuanVI, a scalable quantum-inspired algorithm that combines a mixed-state density-operator formulation with an MPO-motivated quantum tensor network (QTN) parameterization. The former represents degenerate low-energy eigenspaces by their maximally mixed state, avoiding arbitrary eigenvector selection; the latter realizes a compact density operator without explicitly constructing exponentially large matrices. Experiments and ablations show that QuanVI preserves low-dimensional accuracy while scaling to high-dimensional synthetic and Bayesian posterior-approximation benchmarks, including challenging non-Gaussian targets.

When deploying large language models (LLMs) to safety-critical applications, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is of utmost importance to self-assess the reliability of the LLM-based decisions. However, such decisions typically suffer from overconfidence, particularly after parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Existing methods to alleviate this issue either rely on a Laplace approximation based post-hoc framework, which may yield suboptimal calibration depending on the training trajectory, or variational Bayesian training that requires multiple complete forward passes through the entire LLM backbone at inference time for Monte Carlo estimation, posing scalability challenges for deployment. To address these limitations, we build on the Bayesian last layer (BLL) model, where the LLM-based *deterministic* feature extractor is followed by random last-layer parameters for uncertainty reasoning. Since existing low-rank adapters (LoRA) for PEFT have limited expressiveness due to rank collapse, we address this with Polar-decomposed Low-rank Adapter Representation (PoLAR), an orthogonalized parameterization paired with Riemannian optimization to enable more stable and expressive adaptation. Building on this PoLAR-BLL model, we leverage the variational (V) inference framework to put forth a scalable Bayesian fine-tuning approach which jointly seeks the PoLAR parameters and approximate posterior of the last-layer parameters via alternating optimization. The resulting PoLAR-VBLL is a flexible framework that nicely integrates architecture-enhanced optimization with scalable Bayesian inference to endow LLMs with well-calibrated UQ. Our empirical results verify the effectiveness of PoLAR-VBLL in terms of generalization and uncertainty estimation on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data for various common-sense reasoning tasks.

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align marginal conformal score distributions, which is sufficient to preserve marginal coverage but does not control the conditional coverage error at individual test inputs. As a consequence, CP can remain unreliable in regions where the conditional score distributions are mismatched. In this work, we bound the conditional invalidity of CP under distribution shift in terms of the Wasserstein distance between the calibration and test distributions. This result highlights the role of invertible transport in mitigating conditional coverage degradation. Motivated by this insight, we introduce Branched Normalizing Flow (BNF), a two-branch architecture that normalizes a test input to the calibration distribution and transforms the prediction set of the normalized input back to the test distribution while preserving conditional guarantees. Empirically, BNF consistently improves conditional coverage robustness on nine datasets across a wide range of confidence levels.

Tiny Recursive Models (TRM) solve complex reasoning tasks with a fraction of the parameters of modern large language models (LLMs) by iteratively refining a latent state and final answer. While powerful, their deterministic recursion can lead to convergence at suboptimal solutions, without escape mechanism. A common workaround relies on task-specific input perturbations at test time combined with answer aggregation via voting. We introduce Probabilistic TRM (PTRM), a task-agnostic framework for test-time compute scaling that addresses this limitation through stochastic exploration. PTRM injects Gaussian noise at each deep recursion step, enabling parallel trajectories to explore diverse solution basins, and selects among them using the model’s existing Q head (used for early stopping in the original TRM). Without requiring retraining or task-specific augmentations, PTRM enables substantial accuracy gains across benchmarks, including Sudoku-Extreme (87.4% to 98.75%) and on various puzzles from Pencil Puzzle Bench (65% to 91%). On the latter, PTRM achieves nearly double the accuracy of frontier LLMs (91% vs. 55%) at less than 0.0001x the cost, using only 7M parameters.

The signature transform is a principled feature map for continuous-time paths, valued for its uniqueness and universality. Recovering a path from its truncated signature is, however, structurally ill-posed because the truncated signature map is not injective. We therefore reformulate truncated signature inversion as a probabilistic problem---learning the conditional distribution of a path given its truncated signature---and adopt a signature-conditioned flow matching model as a practical estimator. This probabilistic reformulation elucidates the fundamental difficulty of inversion: Bayes reconstruction error quantifies the irreducible uncertainty remaining after conditioning on a statistic. We derive the Bayes-optimal error under linear statistics, obtaining a closed form for log-GBM and numerically tractable formulas for log-fBM and OU---yielding a concrete theoretical baseline for model validation. This baseline upper-bounds the Bayes error under truncated-signature conditioning, since truncated signatures provide richer information than linear statistics. Experiments show that empirical reconstruction errors under linear-statistics conditioning closely match the theory-derived baseline, while errors decrease when the statistic is replaced with the truncated signature. Moreover, generated paths faithfully recover the conditioning signature while preserving key distributional and temporal structure, indicating that the estimator is well calibrated to the target conditional distribution. Together, these results establish a well-posed probabilistic framework for truncated-signature inversion, with applicability demonstrated on real financial data beyond the parametric process families covered by theory.

How should future neural reasoning systems implement extended computation? Recursive Reasoning Models (RRMs) offer a promising alternative to autoregressive sequence extension by performing iterative latent-state refinement with shared transition functions. Yet existing RRMs are largely deterministic, following a single latent trajectory and converging to a single prediction. We introduce Generative Recursive reAsoning Models (GRAM), a framework that turns recursive latent reasoning into probabilistic multi-trajectory computation. GRAM models reasoning as a stochastic latent trajectory, enabling multiple hypotheses, alternative solution strategies, and inference-time scaling through both recursive depth and parallel trajectory sampling. This yields a latent-variable generative model supporting conditional reasoning via $p_\theta(y \mid x)$ and, with fixed or absent inputs, unconditional generation via $p_\theta(x)$. Trained with amortized variational inference, GRAM improves over deterministic recurrent and recursive baselines on structured reasoning and multi-solution constraint satisfaction tasks, while demonstrating an unconditional generation capability.

We study dynamic measure transport for generative modeling, focusing on transport maps that connect a source measure $P_0$ to a target measure $P_1$ by integrating a velocity field of the form $v_t(x) = \mathbb{E}[\dot X_t \mid X_t = x]$, where $X_{\bullet} = (X_{t}) _{t}$ is a stochastic process satisfying $(X _{0}, X _{1}) \sim {P _{0}} \otimes {P _{1}} $ and $\dot X _{t}$ is its time derivative. We investigate when $X _{\bullet}$ induces a _straight-line flow_: a flow whose pointwise acceleration vanishes and is therefore exactly integrable by any first-order method. First, we develop multiple characterizations of straight-line flows in terms of PDEs involving the conditional statistics of the process. Then, we prove that straight-line flows under endpoint independence exhibit a sharp dichotomy. On the one hand, we construct explicit, computable straight-line processes for arbitrary Gaussian endpoints. On the other hand, we show that straight-line processes do not exist for targets with sufficiently well-separated modes. We demonstrate this obstruction through a sequence of increasingly general impossibility theorems that uncover a fundamental relationship between the sample-path behavior of a process with independent endpoints and the space-time geometry of this process' flow map. Taken together, these results provide a structural theory of when straight-line generative flows can, and cannot, exist.

Network interference complicates A/B testing on online platforms, such as social networks and marketplaces, where causal methods based on single experiments often suffer from significant bias due to complex interference patterns. This paper demonstrates the statistical benefits of merging data from multiple experiments with varying treatment proportions. Sequential experimentation with increasing traffic, or ramp-up, is widely used in tech companies for risk management and cost control. Beyond operational benefits, we show that regression-based estimators trained on merged data achieve substantial bias reduction, even under simple randomization schemes and regression models. We focus on the global average treatment effect (GATE), a key estimand in the tech industry, and consider a general interference pattern that extends beyond the 1-hop setting. We present an exact bias–variance analysis of the linear regression estimator and show that, in practical settings, the bias term typically dominates. In addition, we characterize the substantial bias reduction achieved by our proposed approach, which merges experimental data collected at different ramp-up stages to improve the training of the regression function. We also offer an intuitive explanation for this reduction and highlight the synergy between cluster-level randomization and our approach. Furthermore, we consider a refined estimator based on graph neural networks (GNN). Extensive simulations across novel and challenging scenarios confirm that our methodology significantly improves the accuracy of regression-based estimators.

Scientists often need to analyze the samples in a study that responded to treatment in order to refine their hypotheses and find potential causal drivers of response. Natural variation in outcomes makes teasing apart responders from non-responders a statistical inference problem. We introduce the causal two-groups (C2G) model, a causal extension of the classical two-groups model for inferring treatment effects. The classical two-groups model posits that treated samples may or may not experience an effect, according to some prior probability. The C2G model extends this to consider the case where treatment, latent effect status, and effect size are all confounded. We propose two empirical Bayes procedures for the causal two-groups model, one under semi-parametric conditions and another under fully nonparametric conditions. The semi-parametric model assumes additive treatment effects and is identifiable from observed data. The nonparametric model is unidentifiable, but we show it can still be used to test for response in each treated sample. We show empirically and theoretically that both methods for selecting responders control the false discovery rate at the target level with near-optimal power. We also propose two novel estimands of interest and provide a strategy for deriving estimand intervals in the unidentifiable nonparametric model. We apply the C2G model to a cancer immunotherapy dataset, where the nonparametric model recovers clinically-validated predictive biomarkers of both positive and negative outcomes.

Uncertainty quantification for individual treatment effects (ITEs) is a daunting challenge in causal inference. Motivated by recent advances in conformal prediction, several works aim to construct distribution-free prediction sets for ITEs with desired coverage under standard assumptions such as strong ignorability and overlap. In this paper, we show that such goals are fundamentally unattainable in the presence of continuous covariates. Specifically, we establish finite-sample and asymptotic impossibility results demonstrating that any distribution-free prediction set achieving desired coverage for ITEs must be trivial, in the sense that it has infinite expected length. Our analysis relies on a connection between ITE inference and the hardness of conditional independence testing, and highlights the intrinsic limitations imposed by the missing data nature of causal inference. These results provide a new perspective on existing methods, clarifying that their apparent success necessarily relies on additional structural assumptions beyond standard causal assumptions.

Pairwise comparisons from multiple judges are central to large language model evaluation and preference modeling, yet standard ranking pipelines often pool judgments into a single score vector, treating systematic judge disagreement as noise. We propose Heterogeneous Judge-Aware (HJA) ranking, a structured multi-judge ranking framework that separates consensus ranking, judge-specific sensitivity to consensus, and residual preference disagreement. HJA thereby treats ranking, judge sensitivity, and structured disagreement as separate inferential targets. We establish conditions under which this decomposition is identifiable and develop an anchored alternating algorithm that preserves the identifying geometry. For confidence quantification, we study a fixed-panel repeated-comparison regime in which the judge panel may remain fixed or modest while information grows through repeated judgments. This yields uncertainty statements for consensus and judge-specific ranking contrasts, sensitivity parameters, pairwise probabilities, and summaries of residual disagreement.Experiments on synthetic and real multi-judge comparison data show that HJA improves recovery, robustness, uncertainty calibration, and near-tie performance relative to pooled and sensitivity-only baselines. The fitted model also provides diagnostics for judge disagreement and model-affinity patterns, giving a statistically grounded framework for ranking under heterogeneous comparative judgments.

Battery degradation remains a central challenge in the development and broad application of sustainable energy technologies. Accurate degradation prediction is challenging, as battery aging emerges from complex and heterogeneous interactions among cycling behavior, operating conditions, and cell chemistry. Existing machine-learning approaches typically focus on deterministic end-of-life predictions or modeling degradation curves within fixed chemistry settings, leaving probabilistic state-of-health (SOH) trajectory modeling across heterogeneous chemistries underexplored. We introduce FlowBatt, a use-inspired conditional generative framework that adapts flow matching with a diffusion transformer (DiT) backbone to battery degradation trajectory modeling. FlowBatt models full SOH trajectories as probabilistic degradation processes conditioned on early-cycle capacity data. To strengthen this conditioning pathway, we use explainable AI analysis to diagnose and improve the encoder that maps early-cycle capacity matrices into conditioning vectors. We evaluate FlowBatt on five public benchmark settings spanning diverse chemistries and aging conditions, comparing it with supervised and diffusion-based trajectory models as well as established baselines for remaining-useful-life (RUL) prediction under shared data splits. FlowBatt achieves the best SOH prediction performance on four of five datasets, with errors below 2.5%, and delivers competitive RUL prediction performance. By generating multiple plausible trajectories, FlowBatt provides empirical uncertainty estimates, while also revealing calibration challenges under some dataset shifts. These results indicate that flow-matching-based trajectory modeling is a promising framework for probabilistic battery health prediction.

Probabilistic spiking neural networks (SNNs) model spike trains as temporal point processes and provide a principled framework for learning with latent spikes. Recent differentiable point-process methods enable path-wise variational learning, but their training still relies on full-sequence backpropagation through time (BPTT), leading to memory costs that grow with the temporal horizon. In this paper, we develop an online variational training framework for probabilistic SNNs based on discrete-time spike response model dynamics. By representing synaptic history with finite-dimensional Markovian traces, our method updates both generative and variational parameters without storing the full temporal computation graph. To handle future-dependent credit assignment from recurrent spike histories, we introduce a horizon-$R$ family of online estimators. Theoretically, we show that the truncation-induced bias decays exponentially with $R$ under the SRM kernel-decay condition. Synthetic experiments validate the predicted horizon-dependent behavior and bias decay, while N-MNIST experiments show competitive classification accuracy and avoid the sequence-length-dependent memory growth of BPTT.