NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

6,437papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    991.5%
  • Spotlight
    2403.7%
  • Poster
    6,09894.7%

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Evaluating Uncertainty Calibration in Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Models

Thomas Decker, Volker Tresp

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Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly used for probabilistic forecasting across diverse domains, yet the reliability of their uncertainty estimates remains poorly understood. In this work, we study uncertainty calibration in probabilistic TSFMs from a broader methodological and empirical perspective. We introduce a taxonomy of how TSFMs represent predictive uncertainty and develop a fine-grained evaluation framework for calibration in multi-horizon forecasting that distinguishes pooled, horizon-wise, and stronger conditional notions of calibration. Using this framework, we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of popular TSFMs across diverse datasets and show that current models exhibit distinct and systematic patterns of miscalibration that standard metrics often obscure. We further analyze common post-hoc recalibration methods and characterize which forms of calibration they can improve and which tend to persist. Our results provide practical guidance for evaluating and improving uncertainty calibration in TSFMs and highlight important limitations of current practice.

Poster
Embedding Foundation Model Predictions in Discrete-Choice Models with Structural Guarantees

Yingshuo Wang, Xian Sun, Yanhang Li, Zhichao Fan, Zexin Zhuang

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Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price can increase predicted demand, implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible, and unavailable alternatives receive nonzero probability. We propose a two-stage adapter that takes a foundation model's predicted choice probabilities as a precomputed feature and embeds them inside a multinomial logit's utility. In Stage 1, we fit the multinomial logit's structural coefficients by maximum likelihood with sign constraints; in Stage 2, we freeze those coefficients and fit a small neural correction operating on the foundation model's predictions. We prove that this composition exactly preserves the multinomial logit's marginal rate of substitution, so analytically computable value-of-time becomes a mathematical guarantee rather than an empirical accident. Across three datasets and two foundation models, the adapter gains 6.4 percentage points (pp) of test accuracy on average over the multinomial logit and up to 12.8 pp, maintains 100\% cost monotonicity, and produces values of time within the published transportation-economics range on the transportation datasets. Performance degrades gracefully under foundation-model context restriction, retaining at least 6 pp of accuracy gain even at 10\% of the original foundation-model context.

Poster
Do Pathology Foundation Models Encode Disease Progression? A Pseudotime Analysis of Visual Representations

Pritika Vig, Renchin Wu, William Lotter

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Vision foundation models trained on discretely sampled images achieve strong performance on classification benchmarks, yet whether their representations encode the continuous processes underlying their training data remains unclear. This question is especially pertinent in computational pathology, where we posit that models whose latent representations implicitly capture continuous disease progression may better reflect underlying biology, support more robust generalization, and enable quantitative analyses of features associated with disease transitions. Using diffusion pseudotime, a method developed to infer developmental trajectories from single-cell transcriptomics, we probe whether foundation models organize disease states along coherent progression directions in representation space. Across four cancer progressions and six models, we find that all pathology-specific models recover trajectory orderings significantly exceeding null baselines, with vision-only models achieving the highest fidelities ($\tau > 0.78$ on CRC-Serrated). Model rankings by trajectory fidelity on reference diseases strongly predict few-shot classification performance on held-out diseases ($\rho = 0.92$), and exploratory analysis shows cell-type composition varies smoothly along inferred trajectories in patterns consistent with known stromal remodeling. Together, these results demonstrate that vision foundation models can implicitly learn to represent continuous processes from independent static observations, and that trajectory fidelity provides a complementary measure of representation quality beyond downstream performance. While demonstrated in pathology, this framework could be applied to other domains where continuous processes are observed through static snapshots.

Poster
DEFT: Disentanglement-Enhanced Fine-Tuning for EEG Foundation Models

Yuqiu Deng, Muyun Jiang, Zongpeng Zhang, Mingqing Xiao, Yansen Wang, Peiliang Gong, XINLIANG ZHOU, Yi Ding, Ziyu Jia, Cuntai Guan, Chenyu Liu

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EEG foundation models (EFMs) have improved EEG representation learning by transferring knowledge from large-scale multi-subject pretraining to downstream tasks. However, their pretrained embeddings often retain substantial subject-related variation, placing an additional burden on the downstream classifier, especially in cross-subject settings. To address this issue, we propose DISENTANGLED EFM FINE-TUNING (DEFT), a plug-and-play adapter for EFM fine-tuning. DEFT encourages branch disentanglement of pretrained tokens into task-oriented content and subject-consistent style, then performs downstream prediction from the content branch. It instantiates this factorize-before-classify design with recursive Gaussian refinement, temporal-variance regularization, subject-aware contrastive learning, and reconstruction. Experiments across multiple EEG datasets and four EFM backbones show that DEFT improves matched fine-tuning baselines. Further ablations and analyses support the intended content/style branch organization.

Poster
CORTEG: Foundation Models Enable Cross-Modality Representation Transfer from Scalp to Intracranial Brain Recordings

Liuyin Yang, Qiang Sun, Bob Van Dyck, Eva C Merino, Marc M Van Hulle

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Intracranial electrocorticography (ECoG) offers high–signal-to-noise access to cortical activity for brain–computer interfaces, yet limited per-patient data has led most prior work to rely on small, subject-specific decoders that neglect information shared across patients. We investigate whether large pretrained scalp-EEG foundation models (EEG FMs) can be adapted to ECoG, enabling cross-patient learning and competitive decoding performance while calibrating to a held-out patient in $10$--$30$ minutes on a single GPU. We introduce CORTEG, a cross-modality transfer framework that combines a pretrained EEG FM backbone, an electrode-aware KNNSoftFourier spatial adapter, a dual-stream tokenizer for low-frequency and high-gamma activity, and a leave-one-subject-out fine-tuning strategy. We evaluate CORTEG on two challenging regression tasks: public finger trajectory regression (n=9) and private audio envelope regression (n=16). CORTEG matches or exceeds the strongest task-specific baselines on both tasks: it reaches the highest mean correlation among compared methods on the public finger benchmark (gain not statistically significant on $n{=}9$ subjects), with larger and statistically significant gains on the audio task and in low-data per-patient calibration. Feature analyses align with neurophysiology, and latent manifolds capture low-dimensional finger-movement structure. CORTEG provides systematic evidence that scalp-EEG pretraining can be repurposed for ECoG decoding, enabling data-efficient intracranial BCIs that can adapt to new patients.

Poster
AmbientFM: A Foundation Model for Ambient Sensing

Guozhen Zhu, Yuqian Hu, Sakila S Jayaweera, Wei-Hsiang Wang, Weihang Gao, Jiaxuan Zhang, Beibei Wang, Chenshu Wu, K. Liu

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Ambient intelligence seeks to continuously understand human presence, activity, and physiology in physical spaces, enabling smart environments, health monitoring, and human-computer interaction. WiFi infrastructure offers a ubiquitous, always-on, and privacy-preserving sensing substrate across billions of IoT devices. Yet ambient sensing with WiFi remains largely fragmented, with most systems relying on task-specific models, labeled data collection, and customized training pipelines. We present AmbientFM, the first foundation model for ambient sensing through ubiquitous WiFi signals. AmbientFM is pre-trained on 9.2 million unlabeled Channel State Information (CSI) samples collected over 439 days from 20 commercial device types deployed in real-world environments. It learns transferable wireless representations through contrastive learning, masked reconstruction, and physics-informed objectives tailored to wireless signals. With lightweight adaptation, a single backbone transfers to 9 downstream tasks, achieving above 0.90 AUROC on all classification benchmarks and supporting dense spatial reconstruction. AmbientFM reduces the need for labeled data and task-specific design, enabling scalable ambient intelligence on existing wireless infrastructure.

Poster
A low-rank decoder bottleneck bounds reliability in foundation-model perturbation prediction

Zheyu Zhang, Yuanhao Huang, Fan Feng, Jie Liu

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Foundation-model-based predictors of perturbation response are evaluated primarily by aggregate accuracy, yet lack principled per-prediction reliability criteria. We audit the state-transition (ST) decoder~\citep{adduri2025predicting} shared by recent predictors across three encoders and four cell lines under CRISPRi perturbation, and identify a rank-$1$ attention bottleneck whose leading direction maps in gene space to the same cycling/p53 stress-response program in every cell line tested. The bottleneck implies a distance-defined reliability boundary: per-prediction quality degrades smoothly with the gene-space distance from a model's predicted perturbation response ($\Delta$, the predicted change relative to control) to its nearest training $\Delta$, and biological-family identity, not training-pool size, drives held-out quality. We propose \emph{predicted-NN-distance}, this same distance computed from model output alone, as a per-prediction trust signal that tracks per-perturbation quality at Spearman $|\rho| \approx 0.81$ (oracle $0.88$) and admits a single pooled threshold that transfers across cells and encoders under leave-one-out evaluation. The signal outperforms a simpler predicted-magnitude baseline in most cases. Per-prediction reliability is bounded by a low-rank decoder geometry and by gene-space coverage of training perturbations, not by aggregate benchmark accuracy.

Poster