NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

6,437papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    991.5%
  • Spotlight
    2403.7%
  • Poster
    6,09894.7%

Browse all papers

AgentForesight: Online Auditing for Early Failure Prediction in Multi-Agent Systems

Boxuan Zhang, Jianing Zhu, Zeru Shi, Dongfang Liu, Ruixiang Tang

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LLM-based multi-agent systems are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks, but a single decisive error is often accepted by downstream agents and cascades into trajectory-level failure. Existing work frames this as \emph{post-hoc failure attribution}, diagnosing the responsible agent and step after the trajectory has ended. However, this paradigm forfeits any opportunity to intervene while trajectory is still unfolding. In this work, we introduce AgentForesight, a framework that reframes this problem as online auditing: at each step of an unfolding trajectory, an auditor observes only the current prefix and must either continue the run or alarm at the earliest decisive error, without access to future steps. To this end, we curate AFTraj-2K, a corpus of agentic trajectories across Coding, Math, and Agentic domains, in which safe trajectories are retained under a strict curation pipeline and unsafe trajectories are annotated at the step of their decisive error via consensus among multiple LLM judges. Built on that, we develop AgentForesight-7B, a compact online auditor trained with a coarse-to-fine reinforcement learning recipe that first equips it with a risk-anticipation prior at the failure boundary on adjacent safe/unsafe prefix pairs, then sharpens this prior into precise step-level localization under a three-axis reward jointly targeting the what, where, and who of an audit verdict. Across AFTraj-2K and an external Who\&When benchmark, AgentForesight-7B outperforms leading proprietary models, including GPT-4.1 and DeepSeek-V4-Pro, achieving up to +19.9\% performance gain and 3$\times$ lower step localization error, opening the loop from post-hoc failure detection to enabling deployment-time intervention.

Poster
AgentCollabBench: Diagnosing When Good Agents Make Bad Collaborators

Aritra Mazumder, Shubhashis Roy Dipta, Nusrat Jahan Lia, Tanzila Khan, Kainat R Hossain, Nehaa Shri, Humayra Tasnim, Gour G Shawon, Shubhrangshu Debsarkar, Sumaiya A Rani, Al Jami Islam Anik, Debjoty Mitra, Al Nafeu Khan

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Multi-agent systems achieve state-of-the-art outcomes through peer collaboration. However, when an agent in the pipeline silently drops a constraint, the system's final output may look correct even though the reasoning chain was quietly corrupted, and existing outcome-based evaluations are blind to such multi-hop process failures. To make these vulnerabilities measurable before deployment, we introduce AgentCollabBench, a diagnostic benchmark of 900 human-validated tasks spanning software engineering, DevOps, and data engineering. Each task isolates one of four behavioral risks: instruction decay (does a constraint survive peer pressure?), false-belief contagion (does a falsehood spread through consensus?), context leakage (does information bleed between tasks?), and tracer durability (does marked data reach the final agent?). Evaluating four modern LLMs (GPT 4.1 mini, Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite, Qwen-3.5-35B-A3B, and Llama 3.1 8B Instruct), we expose model-specific vulnerability profiles invisible to outcome-only evaluation; Qwen-3.5-35B-A3B, for example, leads on tracer durability and instruction stability, while GPT 4.1 mini leads on leakage containment and false-belief resistance. Beyond per-model differences, communication topology emerges as a primary risk factor that explains 7-40% of the variance in multi-hop information survival. The effect traces to a synthesis bottleneck specific to converging-DAG nodes: an agent weighing competing parent inputs discards constraints carried by a minority branch, a bottleneck structurally absent from linear chains. AgentCollabBench demonstrates that suboptimal topology can silently erase the safeguards of highly capable models, arguing that multi-agent reliability is fundamentally a structural problem and that scaling model intelligence alone is no substitute for architecture.

Poster
AgentArk: Distilling Multi-Agent Intelligence into a Single LLM Agent

Yinyi Luo, Yiqiao Jin, Weichen Yu, Mengqi Zhang, Srijan Kumar, Xiaoxiao Li, Weijie Xu, Xin Chen, Jindong Wang

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While large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems achieve superior reasoning performance through iterative debate, practical deployment is limited by their high computational cost and error propagation. This paper proposes AgentArk, a novel framework to distill multi-agent dynamics into the weights of a single model, effectively transforming explicit test-time interactions into implicit model capabilities. This equips a single agent with the intelligence of multi-agent systems while remaining computationally efficient. Specifically, we investigate three hierarchical distillation strategies across various models, tasks, scaling, and scenarios: reasoning-enhanced fine-tuning; trajectory-based augmentation; and process-aware distillation. By shifting the burden of computation from inference to training, the distilled models preserve the efficiency of one agent while exhibiting strong reasoning and self-correction performance of multiple agents. They further demonstrate enhanced robustness and generalization across diverse reasoning tasks. We hope this work can shed light on future research on efficient and robust multi-agent development. Our code is at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AgentArk.

Poster
Agent2World: Learning to Generate Symbolic World Models via Adaptive Multi-Agent Feedback

Mengkang Hu, Bowei Xia, Yuran Wu, Ailing Yu, Yude Zou, Qiguang Chen, Shijian Wang, Jiarui Jin, Kexin Li, Wenxiang Jiao, Yuan Lu, Ping Luo

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Symbolic world models (e.g., PDDL domains or executable simulators) are central to model-based planning, but training LLMs to generate such world models is limited by the lack of large-scale verifiable supervision. Current approaches rely primarily on static validation methods that fail to catch behavior-level errors arising from interactive execution. In this paper, we propose Agent2World, a tool-augmented multi-agent framework that achieves strong inference-time world-model generation and also serves as a data engine for supervised fine-tuning, by grounding generation in multi-agent feedback. Agent2World follows a three-stage pipeline: (i) A Deep Researcher agent performs knowledge synthesis by web searching to address specification gaps; (ii) A Model Developer agent implements executable world models; And (iii) a specialized Testing Team conducts adaptive unit testing and simulation-based validation. Agent2World demonstrates superior inference-time performance across three benchmarks spanning both Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) and executable code representations, achieving consistent state-of-the-art results. Beyond inference, Testing Team serves as an interactive environment for the Model Developer, providing behavior-aware adaptive feedback that yields multi-turn training trajectories. The model fine-tuned on these trajectories substantially improves world-model generation, yielding an average relative gain of 30.95% over the same model before training.

Poster
Agent-ToM: Learning to Monitor Autonomous LLM Agents via Theory-of-Mind Reasoning

Nesreen Ahmed, Nima Nafisi

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Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior (e.g., covertly pursuing a hidden malicious objective) is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. In adversarial settings such as sabotage, agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches primarily improve monitor scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not improve from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior but do not explicitly reason about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose Agent-ToM, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, step-level intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a Reason--Verify--Refine pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM learns from prior monitoring episodes by distilling critique signals into a persistent semantic guardrail memory that accumulates monitoring strategies, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints to be applied across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision--recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a single coherent reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that \emph{learning at the monitoring layer}, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.

Spotlight
Agent MechSuits : Mechanistic Subspace Safety Steering for Multi-Turn CLI Agents

Weidi Luo, Qiming Zhang, Mingyu Jin, Jie Cai, Yihao Quan, Chaowei Xiao, Jingcheng Niu, Zhen Xiang

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Command-Line Interface (CLI) agents based on large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable autonomous capabilities, but they also introduce significant safety and misuse risks during multi-turn interactions with external environments. Existing safety mechanisms mainly rely on external guardrails, which have a limited ability to perform fine-grained behavioral control during execution. Meanwhile, recent mechanistic interpretability methods for LLM safety are mostly confined to single-turn or jailbreak-style QA settings, limiting their ability to capture the evolving risk dynamics of multi-turn agent execution. In this paper, we investigate the safety of multi-turn CLI agents from an internal perspective. We propose Agent MechSuits (Mechanistic Subspace Intervention and Steering), a white-box defense framework that performs runtime safety detection and representation-level mitigation for CLI agents. Unlike conventional agent guardrails, Agent MechSuits detect harmful execution states from step-level hidden representations and mitigate unsafe behavior by intervening in a 10-dimensional subspace within a single layer. To support this research, we introduce the Mechanistic Agent Safety (MAS) benchmark, comprising comprehensively annotated multi-turn execution trajectories across 194 tasks using LLaMA-3.1-8B, Qwen-2.5-7B, and Gemma-2-9B. Extensive experiments show that Agent MechSuits achieves strong safety detection performance, supports lookahead risk anticipation, and substantially reduces harmful agent actions, establishing a foundation for applying mechanistic interpretability to dynamic LLM agent safety.

Poster
Agent Explorative Policy Optimization for Agentic Multimodal Reasoning

Minki Kang, Shizhe Diao, Ryo Hachiuma, Sung Ju Hwang, Pavlo Molchanov, Frank Wang, Byung-Kwan Lee

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Vision-language models with extended reasoning succeed on complex problems, but many real-world problems require external tools that internal reasoning alone cannot reach. Agentic reasoning therefore interleaves two behaviors with a structural asymmetry: thinking (the self-contained default) and tool use (a high-variance auxiliary acting). We refer to this asymmetry as the Thinking-Acting Gap. Under standard RL recipes like GRPO, the gap manifests as two diagnostic symptoms during training: tool use is attempted on only ~30% of rollouts, and when attempted, the tool-using rollouts within a group are all-wrong on ~40% of questions, suppressing the learning signal at the tool calls that needed it. We propose AXPO (Agent eXplorative Policy Optimization): for each all-wrong tool-using subgroup, AXPO fixes the thinking prefix and resamples the tool call and its continuation, paired with uncertainty-based prefix selection. Across nine multimodal benchmarks and three scales of Qwen3-VL-Thinking, SFT+AXPO outperforms SFT+GRPO at average (+1.8pp Pass@1 and +1.8pp Pass@4 at 8B on average) and 8B with SFT+AXPO surpasses the 32B Base on Pass@4 with 4x fewer parameters.

Poster
Addressing Exogenous Variability in Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Seongmin Kim, Woohyeon Byeon, Jiwon Jeon, Seungyul Han, Youngchul Sung

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Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) often fails under exogenous variability such as shifts in opponents or environment regimes that cannot be controlled by the team but alter the transition dynamics. We formalize this challenge as Exogenous Dec-POMDP (ED-POMDP), which decomposes the global state into endogenous variables controllable by the team and exogenous variables beyond its control. This formulation exposes delayed influence: While actions do not directly determine exogenous transitions, they can shape them through induced changes in endogenous state. Based on this, we propose LEICA, a CTDE-compatible algorithm that learns history-conditioned endogenous and exogenous context representations and shapes policy updates using influence-weighted intrinsic rewards. Across SMAX benchmarks with opponent strategy shifts, LEICA consistently improves both training performance and generalization to unseen opponents' strategies over existing baselines, supporting the usefulness of influence-weighted shaping under exogenous train-test regime shifts.

Spotlight
Adaptive Scheduling Pipeline For Multi-Instance Asynchronous Reinforcement Learning

Salah Chikhi, Luis Ruiz, Entong Li, Li Zeng

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We present the Adaptive Scheduling Pipeline (ASP), a bounded-lag asynchronous reinforcement learning (RL) architecture for post-training large language models (LLMs). Rather than only disaggregating generation and training, the ASP combines two design ideas. First, a queue-aware scheduling policy that jointly reduces three sources of rollout underutilization —padding bubbles from intra-minibatch length heterogeneity, skewness bubbles from long-tail outputs, and sorting bubbles from queue instability induced by length-sorted dispatching—through a single offline preprocessing pass. This enables efficient multi-instance rollout that overcomes the early scaling plateau of single-instance inference while maintaining stable queue dynamics. Second, a bounded-lag asynchronous architecture decouples rollout from training while keeping policy lag observable and small enough to preserve stable learning in our experiments. We also provide an explicit weight-flow path that converts trainer snapshots into inference-ready weights without re-coupling generation and training. Experiments show that ASP improves end-to-end throughput by up to $3.22\times$, reduces iteration time by up to 76\%, scales more robustly with additional generation resources than the MindSpeed-RL and verl baselines, and shows no visible convergence degradation. ASP has also been used in an internal telecom-domain RL post-training workflow, reducing the reported training period from more than three months to about two months and producing a domain-enhanced model for knowledge answering and tool calling.

Poster
Adaptive Communication Range for Scalable Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Huizhong Song, Wei Wei, Lin Li, Lijun Zhang, Fengjiao Li

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Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has long faced scalability challenges due to the exponential growth of the state-action space as the number of agents increases. Existing methods typically enhance scalability by filtering out communications with low-relevance agents. However, such filtering often relies on global state and fixed graph distribution, limiting adaptability in large-scale, communication-constrained environments. In this paper, we propose a scalable MARL method, called Adaptive Communication Range PPO (ACR-PPO), that decomposes the decision-making under communication budget constraints as a sequential process: a communication policy first selects each agent’s communication range within a given budget, followed by a behavior policy that conditions actions on the resulting neighborhood observations. More importantly, we provide a theoretical guarantee of monotonic performance improvement under communication budget constraints. Experiments across diverse scenarios demonstrate that ACR-PPO preserves policy performance while significantly reducing communication costs through adaptive range control.

Poster
Adaptive Adversaries: A Multi-Turn, Multi-LLM Benchmark for LLM Agent Security

Devina Jain, David Hartmann, Chuan Li

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LM-based agents process external content, exposing them to prompt injection and multi-turn manipulation. Most safety benchmarks evaluate defenders against fixed attack pools collected before evaluation, single-turn or multi-turn. We present a 21-scenario benchmark for adaptive multi-round attacks against memoryless LLM defenders: an autonomous LLM attacker observes prior defender responses and pivots across rounds, while each defender response is evaluated as a fresh interaction. Holding the 21 scenarios, attackers, defenders, and structured-output scoring fixed, restricting scoring to the first attacker turn yields $0$--$1%$ attack success rate (ASR); allowing 15 rounds of adaptive attack yields $8.3$--$19.0%$. Pooling three frontier attacker LLMs uncovers up to $2.4\times$ as many unique successful attacks as the best single attacker, and the generated attacks have low cosine similarity ($0.02$--$0.14$) to attacks in existing benchmarks. Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4 are aggregate-equivalent ($8.3%$ vs. $11.1%$ ASR), but their weaknesses differ sharply: on one scenario Opus reaches $60%$ ASR ($95%$ CI $36$--$80%$) while GPT-5.4 and Gemini each stay at $7%$ (CI $1$--$30%$). $15$ of $21$ scenarios distinguish at least one defender pair, yet rankings disagree across scenarios (Kendall's $W = 0.21$). We release the benchmark---21 evaluation scenarios, 10 public development scenarios, the orchestrator, baseline harnesses, and a multi-attacker CLI---plus 945 transcripts from the $3\times3$ frontier matrix, an attack-replay dataset, and $18{,}422$ battles from an open competition's final scoring rounds.

Poster
AdaMAP: Learning Adaptive Multi-Action Prediction with Grounded Dreaming Guidance

Muyao Li, Zihao Wang, XuJing Li, Xiangyang Li, Jiabo Ye, Zhiyong Wu, Yaodong Yang, Yujia Qin

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Large agentic models can now operate in complex digital games by pretraining on web-scale data, but gameplay trajectories often contain highly redundant actions. Single-action agents can exploit this redundancy spuriously by copying recent actions, leading to causal confusion. Fixed-length action chunks reduce this ambiguity by predicting multiple future actions at once, but their open-loop execution accumulates errors because the agent cannot adapt to new observations during the chunk. The agent should therefore learn when to act for longer without feedback and when to stop early for a new observation. We introduce AdaMAP (Adaptive Multi-Action Prediction), an adaptive multi-action prediction framework that directly generates variable-horizon action chunks, interleaves actions with grounded visual dreams that provide verifiable future constraints, and optimizes the resulting policy with offline imitation learning followed by online MAP-PPO. Across Minecraft and VizDoom, AdaMAP attains the best or tied-best result in five of six task categories and improves average Minecraft success by 3.56 percentage points over the fixed-horizon RL baseline. The learned horizons vary systematically across tasks and games, suggesting that adaptive multi-action prediction discovers useful temporal abstractions.

Poster
ASQ: Agent-guided Semantic-aware Quantization for Large Language Models

Seungdong Yoa, Ye Seul Sim, Suhee Yoon, Sanghyu Yoon, Dongmin Kim, Soonyoung Lee, Junhyun Lee, Bumsoo Kim

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Post-training quantization (PTQ) compresses large language models (LLMs) but remains largely semantic-agnostic, relying on global activation magnitude to guide precision allocation. This overlooks the functional heterogeneity of Transformer representations, where semantically meaningful channels are sparsely activated while structurally dominant channels exhibit large but context-insensitive activations. We propose Agent-guided Semantic-aware Quantization (ASQ), a PTQ framework that conditions on semantically informative positions identified by an auxiliary LLM. A dual-pathway scoring mechanism captures both activation selectivity and attention routing toward these positions, producing channel-wise importance scores for scaling. This yields a closer approximation to a semantically conditioned objective and consistently improves low-bit (e.g., W4A16) quantization performance across LLMs. Extensive experiments show consistent gains over state-of-the-art PTQ, preserving general reasoning and even surpassing FP16 performance on several benchmarks in specialized domains, while enabling training-free, privacy-preserving self-quantization with zero inference overhead.

Poster
AIM: Adaptive Interaction in Multi-Agent Debate for Multimodal LLM Inference

Wei Fan, JinYi Yoon, Bo Ji

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Multi-Agent Debate (MAD) improves reasoning on multimodal tasks, but its accuracy and token efficiency depend on how agents interact during debate. A largely overlooked design choice is which interaction modalities agents use to exchange evidence. Existing methods rely on fixed text- or graph-based interaction, which fails to convey fine-grained multimodal evidence, degrading accuracy while inflating token cost due to verbose descriptions. To address this, we propose Adaptive Interaction in Multi-Agent Debate (AIM), an adaptive framework that dynamically selects the best combination of interaction modalities for each instance. Beyond text and graph, AIM introduces task-dependent modality interaction, where agents exchange targeted regions of interest from the task-specific multimodal input, such as image regions, audio segments, and spatio-temporal clips. To determine which combination is the best for each instance, AIM first generates a structured baseline response, extracts interpretable routing features, and finally uses a lightweight router to select a modality combination that avoids both under-fusion (i.e., agents miss decisive evidence) and over-fusion (i.e., redundant modalities inflate token cost) risks. Across eight multimodal question answering (QA) benchmarks of Visual-QA, Audio-QA, and Video-QA, AIM achieves the highest accuracy on all datasets, improving upon the best single-modality baseline by up to 8.9% while reducing token cost by up to 53.4% relative to the best fixed-modality baseline.

Poster
AGiR: Mitigating Gift Over-Reliance in Mixed-Motive Games

Woohyeon Byeon, Seongmin Kim, Jiwon Jeon, Woojun Kim, Youngchul Sung

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In this paper, we consider mixed-motive games (MMGs) which model various real-world multi-agent scenarios where self-interested agents must both cooperate and compete. We identify an issue with existing gifting methods, where agents become overly dependent on incoming gifts and fail to learn reward-yielding behaviors, a phenomenon we call *gift over-reliance*. To address this, we propose a refusal-augmented gifting framework that balances cooperation and competition in MMGs. Our approach introduces an adaptive refusal mechanism that allows agents to selectively reject a portion of received gifts, thereby mitigating gift over-reliance and preventing the agents from being exploited by other agents. This mechanism is gifting-method-agnostic, serving as a plug-in for existing schemes while enabling decentralized learning. We demonstrate that across diverse MMG environments and gifting schemes, our mechanism consistently reduces gift over-reliance, prevents lock-in to sacrificing policies, and improves $\alpha$-fairness without necessitating major changes to existing training pipelines.

Poster
A multi-scale information geometry reveals the structure of mutual information in neural populations

Simone Azeglio, Steeve Laquitaine, Ulisse Ferrari, Matthew Chalk

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Understanding how neural population responses represent sensory information is a central problem in systems neuroscience. One approach is to define a representational geometry on stimulus space in which distances reflect how reliably stimuli can be distinguished from neural activity. However, different constructions of these distances can lead to qualitatively different conclusions about the neural code. Here, we show that a unique Riemannian representational geometry emerges from first principles governing how distances contract as stimulus resolution is lost through coarse-graining. This results in a multi-scale extension of the Fisher information metric, capturing encoding structure from fine stimulus details to coarse global distinctions. The resulting geometry is exactly related to the mutual information encoded by the population: well encoded stimulus directions -- those contributing more to mutual information -- are expanded, whereas poorly encoded directions are contracted. The metric tensor can be estimated using diffusion models, making the framework practical for large neural populations and high-dimensional stimuli. Applied to visual cortical responses to natural images, the eigenvectors of the metric tensor identify stimulus variations that contribute most to information transmission, yielding interpretable features that are robust to modelling choices. Together, these results provide a principled, information-theoretic framework for characterising neural population codes.

Oral
A Hierarchy of Entropy-Shapley Games for Multivariate Predictive Uncertainty

Niklas Koenen, Claudia Battistin, Jeriek Van den Abeele, Martin Jullum

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Modern probabilistic machine learning models increasingly produce multivariate outputs with complex dependence structure, from multi-step time-series forecasts to sample path predictions. Understanding which input features drive the predictive uncertainty is important for risk-aware decisions, model diagnostics, and deciding whether the uncertainty should be mitigated or hedged against. This attribution problem requires a choice of how dependencies between output components are treated. Existing approaches reduce the output to a scalar through aggregation or projection before attribution, thereby obscuring whether features affect marginal uncertainty, dependence structure, or both, while component-wise analyses can miss dependence effects entirely. We close this gap by introducing a hierarchy of three entropy-based Shapley games that make this output-side choice explicit for any ordered multivariate outcome, ranging from per-component marginal entropy to fully joint entropy. The hierarchy isolates a cross-component attribution term that captures how each feature shifts the dependence between output components, a quantity invisible to component-wise methods. We establish a chain-rule decomposition of the joint attribution and characterize the cross-component term through conditional total correlation, providing both closed-form and sample-based estimators. Finally, we demonstrate how the framework captures differences in learned joint structure across probabilistic models from distributional regression to a zero-shot time series foundation model.

Poster
A Black-Box Reduction from Regret to Multi-Level Coverage

Tuo Liu, Edgar Dobriban, Francesco Orabona

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Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) sequentially constructs prediction sets whose average empirical coverage converges to a target level over time, for arbitrary, potentially adversarial datasets. In the multi-level setting of OCP, prediction sets are produced at $d$ coverage levels at once. Prior work showed that online gradient descent with lazy isotonic projections produces sets properly nested across levels, but with a $\sqrt{d}$ dependence in the per-level coverage convergence rate. Here, we both generalize and improve prior work. First, we show that lazy isotonic projections can be safely used for the construction of multi-level online conformal prediction sets from \emph{any} online learning algorithm. Then, through a black-box reduction, we show that the linearized regret of the online algorithm itself automatically gives control over both per-level calibration and distributional consistency of multi-level predictions via Fenchel duality. Finally, by using the Weighted Interval Score, the standard scoring rule for assessing multi-level interval forecasts, we prove that these projections reduce both the size of the sets and their under-coverage. We show two instantiations of our theory, $p$-norm Online Mirror Descent and coordinate-wise Universal-Portfolio, both improving the dependence on the number of levels to $\sqrt{\log d}$ for the multi-OCP problem. Experiments on stock prices, electricity demand, and synthetic streams confirm consistent gains in coverage-width trade-offs over existing baselines.

Poster
2-Step Agent: How a Bayesian Decision Maker Learns from AI-Decision Support

Otto Nyberg, Fausto Carcassi, Davide Tugnoli, Giovanni Cinà

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Predictions from ML models support human decision making in several fields, including high-stakes ones such as healthcare and the judiciary. Yet, we still lack a clear understanding of how decision makers learn from ML-based decision support (ML-DS). In this paper, we introduce a general computational framework, the 2-Step Agent, to capture this process. As a prediction from an ML model contains information about the training data, a prediction can also be used for inference. Our framework models (i) how a prediction for a new observation affects the beliefs of a rational Bayesian agent, and (ii) how this change in beliefs affects the estimation of causal effect, the downstream decision, and the subsequent outcome. In addition to the framework itself, we make three contributions. First, for the linear Gaussian setting, we derive a tractable solution for the challenging Bayesian inference problem we introduced, i.e. one in which the agent infers from an ML prediction. Second, we experimentally identify conditions under which ML-DS is beneficial. Third, we show that a single misaligned prior belief can be sufficient for ML-DS to lead to worse downstream outcomes compared to no decision support *even when the ML model is well-specified and the agent is perfectly rational*. Hence, even under ideal conditions, ML-DS can do more harm than good.

Poster