NeurIPS 2023 Papers

As society transitions towards an AI-based decision-making infrastructure, an ever-increasing number of decisions once under control of humans are now delegated to automated systems. Even though such developments make various parts of society more efficient, a large body of evidence suggests that a great deal of care needs to be taken to make such automated decision-making systems fair and equitable, namely, taking into account sensitive attributes such as gender, race, and religion. In this paper, we study a specific decision-making task called outcome control in which an automated system aims to optimize an outcome variable $Y$ while being fair and equitable. The interest in such a setting ranges from interventions related to criminal justice and welfare, all the way to clinical decision-making and public health. In this paper, we first analyze through causal lenses the notion of benefit, which captures how much a specific individual would benefit from a positive decision, counterfactually speaking, when contrasted with an alternative, negative one. We introduce the notion of benefit fairness, which can be seen as the minimal fairness requirement in decision-making, and develop an algorithm for satisfying it. We then note that the benefit itself may be influenced by the protected attribute, and propose causal tools which can be used to analyze this. Finally, if some of the variations of the protected attribute in the benefit are considered as discriminatory, the notion of benefit fairness may need to be strengthened, which leads us to articulating a notion of causal benefit fairness. Using this notion, we develop a new optimization procedure capable of maximizing $Y$ while ascertaining causal fairness in the decision process.

Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as `event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator or negative outcome control) have been proposed in this setting in the literature. However, these approaches require either restrictive assumptions on the data generating model or having access to at least two proxy variables. We propose a method to estimate the causal effect using cross moments between the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy variable. In particular, we show that the causal effect can be identified with simple arithmetic operations on the cross moments if the latent confounder in linear SCM is non-Gaussian. In this setting, DiD estimator provides an unbiased estimate only in the special case where the latent confounder has exactly the same direct causal effects on the outcomes in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases. This translates to the common trend assumption in DiD, which we effectively relax. Additionally, we provide an impossibility result that shows the causal effect cannot be identified if the observational distribution over the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy is jointly Gaussian. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the effectiveness of the proposed approach in estimating the causal effect.

Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to be close to the target posterior, optimizing an appropriate objective such as the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this work, we present a new approach to VI. Our method is based on the principle of score matching---namely, that if two distributions are equal then their score functions (i.e., gradients of the log density) are equal at every point on their support. With this principle, we develop score-matching VI, an iterative algorithm that seeks to match the scores between the variational approximation and the exact posterior. At each iteration, score-matching VI solves an inner optimization, one that minimally adjusts the current variational estimate to match the scores at a newly sampled value of the latent variables. We show that when the variational family is a Gaussian, this inner optimization enjoys a closed-form solution, which we call Gaussian score matching VI (GSM-VI). GSM-VI is a ``black box'' variational algorithm in that it only requires a differentiable joint distribution, and as such it can be applied to a wide class of models. We compare GSM-VI to black box variational inference (BBVI), which has similar requirements but instead optimizes the ELBO. We first study how GSM-VI behaves as a function of the problem dimensionality, the condition number of the target covariance matrix (when the target is Gaussian), and the degree of mismatch between the approximating and exact posterior distribution. We then study GSM-VI on a collection of real-world Bayesian inference problems from the posteriorDB database of datasets and models. We find that GSM-VI is faster than BBVI and equally or more accurate. Specifically, over a wide range of target posteriors, GSM-VI requires 10-100x fewer gradient evaluations than BBVI to obtain a comparable quality of approximation.

Cooperative communication plays a fundamental role in theories of human-human interaction--cognition, culture, development, language, etc.--as well as human-robot interaction. The core challenge in cooperative communication is the problem of common ground: having enough shared knowledge and understanding to successfully communicate. Prior models of cooperative communication, however, uniformly assume the strongest form of common ground, perfect and complete knowledge sharing, and, therefore, fail to capture the core challenge of cooperative communication. We propose a general theory of cooperative communication that is mathematically principled and explicitly defines a spectrum of common ground possibilities, going well beyond that of perfect and complete knowledge sharing, on spaces that permit arbitrary representations of data and hypotheses. Our framework is a strict generalization of prior models of cooperative communication. After considering a parametric form of common ground and viewing the data selection and hypothesis inference processes of communication as encoding and decoding, we establish a connection to variational autoencoding, a powerful model in modern machine learning. Finally, we carry out a series of empirical simulations to support and elaborate on our theoretical results.

Phylogenetic inference, grounded in molecular evolution models, is essential for understanding the evolutionary relationships in biological data. Accounting for the uncertainty of phylogenetic tree variables, which include tree topologies and evolutionary distances on branches, is crucial for accurately inferring species relationships from molecular data and tasks requiring variable marginalization. Variational Bayesian methods are key to developing scalable, practical models; however, it remains challenging to conduct phylogenetic inference without restricting the combinatorially vast number of possible tree topologies. In this work, we introduce a novel, fully differentiable formulation of phylogenetic inference that leverages a unique representation of topological distributions in continuous geometric spaces. Through practical considerations on design spaces and control variates for gradient estimations, our approach, GeoPhy, enables variational inference without limiting the topological candidates. In experiments using real benchmark datasets, GeoPhy significantly outperformed other approximate Bayesian methods that considered whole topologies.

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally randomized experiments based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) offer a more realistic approach but may suffer from high estimation variance. To tackle this challenge and enhance causal model evaluation in real-world conditional randomization settings, we introduce a novel low-variance estimator for causal error, dubbed as the pairs estimator. By applying the same IPW estimator to both the model and true experimental effects, our estimator effectively cancels out the variance due to IPW and achieves a smaller asymptotic variance. Empirical studies demonstrate the improved of our estimator, highlighting its potential on achieving near-RCT performance. Our method offers a simple yet powerful solution to evaluate causal inference models in conditional randomization settings without complicated modification of the IPW estimator itself, paving the way for more robust and reliable model assessments.

In recommender systems, the collected data used for training is always subject to selection bias, which poses a great challenge for unbiased learning. Previous studies proposed various debiasing methods based on observed user and item features, but ignored the effect of hidden confounding. To address this problem, recent works suggest the use of sensitivity analysis for worst-case control of the unknown true propensity, but only valid when the true propensity is near to the nominal propensity within a finite bound. In this paper, we first perform theoretical analysis to reveal the possible failure of previous approaches, including propensity-based, multi-task learning, and bi-level optimization methods, in achieving unbiased learning when hidden confounding is present. Then, we propose a unified multi-task learning approach to remove hidden confounding, which uses a few unbiased ratings to calibrate the learned nominal propensities and nominal error imputations from biased data. We conduct extensive experiments on three publicly available benchmark datasets containing a fully exposed large-scale industrial dataset, validating the effectiveness of the proposed methods in removing hidden confounding.

The signaling capacity of a neural population depends on the scale and orientation of its covariance across trials. Estimating this "noise" covariance is challenging and is thought to require a large number of stereotyped trials. New approaches are therefore needed to interrogate the structure of neural noise across rich, naturalistic behaviors and sensory experiences, with few trials per condition. Here, we exploit the fact that conditions are smoothly parameterized in many experiments and leverage Wishart process models to pool statistical power from trials in neighboring conditions. We demonstrate that these models perform favorably on experimental data from the mouse visual cortex and monkey motor cortex relative to standard covariance estimators. Moreover, they produce smooth estimates of covariance as a function of stimulus parameters, enabling estimates of noise correlations in entirely unseen conditions as well as continuous estimates of Fisher information—a commonly used measure of signal fidelity. Together, our results suggest that Wishart processes are broadly applicable tools for quantification and uncertainty estimation of noise correlations in trial-limited regimes, paving the way toward understanding the role of noise in complex neural computations and behavior.

Transformers have achieved remarkable success in a wide range of natural language processing and computer vision applications. However, the representation capacity of a deep transformer model is degraded due to the over-smoothing issue in which the token representations become identical when the model's depth grows. In this work, we show that self-attention layers in transformers minimize a functional which promotes smoothness, thereby causing token uniformity. We then propose a novel regularizer that penalizes the norm of the difference between the smooth output tokens from self-attention and the input tokens to preserve the fidelity of the tokens. Minimizing the resulting regularized energy functional, we derive the Neural Transformer with a Regularized Nonlocal Functional (NeuTRENO), a novel class of transformer models that can mitigate the over-smoothing issue. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of NeuTRENO over the baseline transformers and state-of-the-art methods in reducing the over-smoothing of token representations on various practical tasks, including object classification, image segmentation, and language modeling.

Last-iterate convergence has received extensive study in two player zero-sum games starting from bilinear, convex-concave up to settings that satisfy the MVI condition. Typical methods that exhibit last-iterate convergence for the aforementioned games include extra-gradient (EG) and optimistic gradient descent ascent (OGDA). However, all the established last-iterate convergence results hold for the restrictive setting where the underlying repeated game does not change over time. Recently, a line of research has focused on regret analysis of OGDA in time-varying games, i.e., games where payoffs evolve with time; the last-iterate behavior of OGDA and EG in time-varying environments remains unclear though. In this paper, we study the last-iterate behavior of various algorithms in two types of unconstrained, time-varying, bilinear zero-sum games: periodic and convergent perturbed games. These models expand upon the usual repeated game formulation and incorporate external environmental factors, such as the seasonal effects on species competition and vanishing external noise. In periodic games, we prove that EG will converge while OGDA and momentum method will diverge. This is quite surprising, as to the best of our knowledge, it is the first result that indicates EG and OGDA have qualitatively different last-iterate behaviors and do not exhibit similar behavior. In convergent perturbed games, we prove all these algorithms converge as long as the game itself stabilizes with a faster rate than $1/t$.

Estimation of a complete univariate distribution from a sequence of observations is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting remains largely unaddressed. We present computationally felicitous time-uniform and value-uniform bounds on the CDF of the running averaged conditional distribution of a sequence of real-valued random variables. Consistent with known impossibility results, our CDF bounds are always valid but sometimes trivial when the instance is too hard, and we give an instance-dependent convergence guarantee. The importance-weighted extension is appropriate for estimating complete counterfactual distributions of rewards given data from a randomized experiment, e.g., from an A/B test or a contextual bandit.

Optimal auction design is a fundamental problem in algorithmic game theory. This problem is notoriously difficult already in very simple settings. Recent work in differentiable economics showed that neural networks can efficiently learn known optimal auction mechanisms and discover interesting new ones. In an attempt to theoretically justify their empirical success, we focus on one of the first such networks, RochetNet, and a generalized version for affine maximizer auctions. We prove that they satisfy mode connectivity, i.e., locally optimal solutions are connected by a simple, piecewise linear path such that every solution on the path is almost as good as one of the two local optima. Mode connectivity has been recently investigated as an intriguing empirical and theoretically justifiable property of neural networks used for prediction problems. Our results give the first such analysis in the context of differentiable economics, where neural networks are used directly for solving non-convex optimization problems.

From clinical development of cancer therapies to investigations into partisan bias, adaptive sequential designs have become increasingly popular method for causal inference, as they offer the possibility of improved precision over their non-adaptive counterparts. However, even in simple settings (e.g. two treatments) the extent to which adaptive designs can improve precision is not sufficiently well understood. In this work, we study the problem of Adaptive Neyman Allocation in a design-based potential outcomes framework, where the experimenter seeks to construct an adaptive design which is nearly as efficient as the optimal (but infeasible) non-adaptive Neyman design, which has access to all potential outcomes. Motivated by connections to online optimization, we propose Neyman Ratio and Neyman Regret as two (equivalent) performance measures of adaptive designs for this problem. We present Clip-OGD, an adaptive design which achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ expected Neyman regret and thereby recovers the optimal Neyman variance in large samples. Finally, we construct a conservative variance estimator which facilitates the development of asymptotically valid confidence intervals. To complement our theoretical results, we conduct simulations using data from a microeconomic experiment.

Recently, the Segment Anything Model (SAM) emerged as a powerful vision foundation model which is capable to segment anything in 2D images. This paper aims to generalize SAM to segment 3D objects. Rather than replicating the data acquisition and annotation procedure which is costly in 3D, we design an efficient solution, leveraging the Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) as a cheap and off-the-shelf prior that connects multi-view 2D images to the 3D space. We refer to the proposed solution as SA3D, for Segment Anything in 3D. It is only required to provide a manual segmentation prompt (e.g., rough points) for the target object in a single view, which is used to generate its 2D mask in this view with SAM. Next, SA3D alternately performs mask inverse rendering and cross-view self-prompting across various views to iteratively complete the 3D mask of the target object constructed with voxel grids. The former projects the 2D mask obtained by SAM in the current view onto 3D mask with guidance of the density distribution learned by the NeRF; The latter extracts reliable prompts automatically as the input to SAM from the NeRF-rendered 2D mask in another view. We show in experiments that SA3D adapts to various scenes and achieves 3D segmentation within minutes. Our research offers a generic and efficient methodology to lift a 2D vision foundation model to 3D, as long as the 2D model can steadily address promptable segmentation across multiple views.

We propose a novel and practical privacy notion called $f$-Membership Inference Privacy ($f$-MIP), which explicitly considers the capabilities of realistic adversaries under the membership inference attack threat model. Consequently, $f$-MIP offers interpretable privacy guarantees and improved utility (e.g., better classification accuracy). In particular, we derive a parametric family of $f$-MIP guarantees that we refer to as $\mu$-Gaussian Membership Inference Privacy ($\mu$-GMIP) by theoretically analyzing likelihood ratio-based membership inference attacks on stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Our analysis highlights that models trained with standard SGD already offer an elementary level of MIP. Additionally, we show how $f$-MIP can be amplified by adding noise to gradient updates. Our analysis further yields an analytical membership inference attack that offers two distinct advantages over previous approaches. First, unlike existing state-of-the-art attacks that require training hundreds of shadow models, our attack does not require any shadow model. Second, our analytical attack enables straightforward auditing of our privacy notion $f$-MIP. Finally, we quantify how various hyperparameters (e.g., batch size, number of model parameters) and specific data characteristics determine an attacker's ability to accurately infer a point's membership in the training set. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on models trained on vision and tabular datasets.

The relationship between perception and inference, as postulated by Helmholtz in the 19th century, is paralleled in modern machine learning by generative models like Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and their hierarchical variants. Here, we evaluate the role of hierarchical inference and its alignment with brain function in the domain of motion perception. We first introduce a novel synthetic data framework, Retinal Optic Flow Learning (ROFL), which enables control over motion statistics and their causes. We then present a new hierarchical VAE and test it against alternative models on two downstream tasks: (i) predicting ground truth causes of retinal optic flow (e.g., self-motion); and (ii) predicting the responses of neurons in the motion processing pathway of primates. We manipulate the model architectures (hierarchical versus non-hierarchical), loss functions, and the causal structure of the motion stimuli. We find that hierarchical latent structure in the model leads to several improvements. First, it improves the linear decodability of ground truth variables and does so in a sparse and disentangled manner. Second, our hierarchical VAE outperforms previous state-of-the-art models in predicting neuronal responses and exhibits sparse latent-to-neuron relationships. These results depend on the causal structure of the world, indicating that alignment between brains and artificial neural networks depends not only on architecture but also on matching ecologically relevant stimulus statistics. Taken together, our results suggest that hierarchical Bayesian inference underlines the brain's understanding of the world, and hierarchical VAEs can effectively model this understanding.

The proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm stands as one of the most prosperous methods in the field of reinforcement learning (RL). Despite its success, the theoretical understanding of PPO remains deficient. Specifically, it is unclear whether PPO or its optimistic variants can effectively solve linear Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are arguably the simplest models in RL with function approximation. To bridge this gap, we propose an optimistic variant of PPO for episodic adversarial linear MDPs with full-information feedback, and establish a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{3/4}H^2K^{3/4})$ regret for it. Here $d$ is the ambient dimension of linear MDPs, $H$ is the length of each episode, and $K$ is the number of episodes. Compared with existing policy-based algorithms, we achieve the state-of-the-art regret bound in both stochastic linear MDPs and adversarial linear MDPs with full information. Additionally, our algorithm design features a novel multi-batched updating mechanism and the theoretical analysis utilizes a new covering number argument of value and policy classes, which might be of independent interest.

Visual Query Localization on long-form egocentric videos requires spatio-temporal search and localization of visually specified objects and is vital to build episodic memory systems. Prior work develops complex multi-stage pipelines that leverage well-established object detection and tracking methods to perform VQL. However, each stage is independently trained and the complexity of the pipeline results in slow inference speeds. We propose VQLoC, a novel single-stage VQL framework that is end-to-end trainable. Our key idea is to first build a holistic understanding of the query-video relationship and then perform spatio-temporal localization in a single shot manner. Specifically, we establish the query-video relationship by jointly considering query-to-frame correspondences between the query and each video frame and frame-to-frame correspondences between nearby video frames. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms prior VQL methods by $20$% accuracy while obtaining a $10\times$ improvement in inference speed. VQLoC is also the top entry on the Ego4D VQ2D challenge leaderboard.