NeurIPS 2023 Papers

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

We initiate the mathematical study of replicability as an algorithmic property in the context of reinforcement learning (RL). We focus on the fundamental setting of discounted tabular MDPs with access to a generative model. Inspired by Impagliazzo et al. [2022], we say that an RL algorithm is replicable if, with high probability, it outputs the exact same policy after two executions on i.i.d. samples drawn from the generator when its internal randomness is the same. We first provide an efficient $\rho$-replicable algorithm for $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-optimal policy estimation with sample and time complexity $\widetilde O\left(\frac{N^3\cdot\log(1/\delta)}{(1-\gamma)^5\cdot\varepsilon^2\cdot\rho^2}\right)$, where $N$ is the number of state-action pairs. Next, for the subclass of deterministic algorithms, we provide a lower bound of order $\Omega\left(\frac{N^3}{(1-\gamma)^3\cdot\varepsilon^2\cdot\rho^2}\right)$. Then, we study a relaxed version of replicability proposed by Kalavasis et al. [2023] called TV indistinguishability. We design a computationally efficient TV indistinguishable algorithm for policy estimation whose sample complexity is $\widetilde O\left(\frac{N^2\cdot\log(1/\delta)}{(1-\gamma)^5\cdot\varepsilon^2\cdot\rho^2}\right)$. At the cost of $\exp(N)$ running time, we transform these TV indistinguishable algorithms to $\rho$-replicable ones without increasing their sample complexity. Finally, we introduce the notion of approximate-replicability where we only require that two outputted policies are close under an appropriate statistical divergence (e.g., Renyi) and show an improved sample complexity of $\widetilde O\left(\frac{N\cdot\log(1/\delta)}{(1-\gamma)^5\cdot\varepsilon^2\cdot\rho^2}\right)$.

Despite widespread use of LLMs as conversational agents, evaluations of performance fail to capture a crucial aspect of communication: interpreting language in context---incorporating its pragmatics. Humans interpret language using beliefs and prior knowledge about the world. For example, we intuitively understand the response "I wore gloves" to the question "Did you leave fingerprints?" as meaning "No". To investigate whether LLMs have the ability to make this type of inference, known as an implicature, we design a simple task and evaluate four categories of widely used state-of-the-art models. We find that, despite only evaluating on utterances that require a binary inference (yes or no), models in three of these categories perform close to random. However, LLMs instruction-tuned at the example-level perform significantly better. These results suggest that certain fine-tuning strategies are far better at inducing pragmatic understanding in models. We present our findings as the starting point for further research into evaluating how LLMs interpret language in context and to drive the development of more pragmatic and useful models of human discourse.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are commonly described as being permutation equivariant with respect to node relabeling in the graph. This symmetry of GNNs is often compared to the translation equivariance of Euclidean convolution neural networks (CNNs). However, these two symmetries are fundamentally different: The translation equivariance of CNNs corresponds to symmetries of the fixed domain acting on the image signals (sometimes known as active symmetries), whereas in GNNs any permutation acts on both the graph signals and the graph domain (sometimes described as passive symmetries). In this work, we focus on the active symmetries of GNNs, by considering a learning setting where signals are supported on a fixed graph. In this case, the natural symmetries of GNNs are the automorphisms of the graph. Since real-world graphs tend to be asymmetric, we relax the notion of symmetries by formalizing approximate symmetries via graph coarsening. We present a bias-variance formula that quantifies the tradeoff between the loss in expressivity and the gain in the regularity of the learned estimator, depending on the chosen symmetry group. To illustrate our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on image inpainting, traffic flow prediction, and human pose estimation with different choices of symmetries. We show theoretically and empirically that the best generalization performance can be achieved by choosing a suitably larger group than the graph automorphism, but smaller than the permutation group.

Flexible sensors are promising for ubiquitous sensing of human status due to their flexibility and easy integration as wearable systems. However, on-body displacement of sensors is inevitable since the device cannot be firmly worn at a fixed position across different sessions. This displacement issue causes complicated patterns and significant challenges to subsequent machine learning algorithms. Our work proposes a novel self-adaptive motion tracking network to address this challenge. Our network consists of three novel components: i) a light-weight learnable Affine Transformation layer whose parameters can be tuned to efficiently adapt to unknown displacements; ii) a Fourier-encoded LSTM network for better pattern identification; iii) a novel sequence discrepancy loss equipped with auxiliary regressors for unsupervised tuning of Affine Transformation parameters.

This study reveals the inherent tolerance of contrastive learning (CL) towards sampling bias, wherein negative samples may encompass similar semantics (\eg labels). However, existing theories fall short in providing explanations for this phenomenon. We bridge this research gap by analyzing CL through the lens of distributionally robust optimization (DRO), yielding several key insights: (1) CL essentially conducts DRO over the negative sampling distribution, thus enabling robust performance across a variety of potential distributions and demonstrating robustness to sampling bias; (2) The design of the temperature $\tau$ is not merely heuristic but acts as a Lagrange Coefficient, regulating the size of the potential distribution set; (3) A theoretical connection is established between DRO and mutual information, thus presenting fresh evidence for ``InfoNCE as an estimate of MI'' and a new estimation approach for $\phi$-divergence-based generalized mutual information. We also identify CL's potential shortcomings, including over-conservatism and sensitivity to outliers, and introduce a novel Adjusted InfoNCE loss (ADNCE) to mitigate these issues. It refines potential distribution, improving performance and accelerating convergence. Extensive experiments on various domains (image, sentence, and graph) validate the effectiveness of the proposal.

Language models are increasingly being deployed for general problem solving across a wide range of tasks, but are still confined to token-level, left-to-right decision-making processes during inference. This means they can fall short in tasks that require exploration, strategic lookahead, or where initial decisions play a pivotal role. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a new framework for language model inference, Tree of Thoughts (ToT), which generalizes over the popular Chain of Thought approach to prompting language models, and enables exploration over coherent units of text (thoughts) that serve as intermediate steps toward problem solving. ToT allows LMs to perform deliberate decision making by considering multiple different reasoning paths and self-evaluating choices to decide the next course of action, as well as looking ahead or backtracking when necessary to make global choices. Our experiments show that ToT significantly enhances language models’ problem-solving abilities on three novel tasks requiring non-trivial planning or search: Game of 24, Creative Writing, and Mini Crosswords. For instance, in Game of 24, while GPT-4 with chain-of-thought prompting only solved 4\% of tasks, our method achieved a success rate of 74\%. Code repo with all prompts: https://github.com/princeton-nlp/tree-of-thought-llm.

In many real-world scenarios it is crucial to be able to reliably and efficiently reason under uncertainty while capturing complex relationships in data. Probabilistic circuits (PCs), a prominent family of tractable probabilistic models, offer a remedy to this challenge by composing simple, tractable distributions into a high-dimensional probability distribution. However, learning PCs on heterogeneous data is challenging and densities of some parametric distributions are not available in closed form, limiting their potential use. We introduce characteristic circuits (CCs), a family of tractable probabilistic models providing a unified formalization of distributions over heterogeneous data in the spectral domain. The one-to-one relationship between characteristic functions and probability measures enables us to learn high-dimensional distributions on heterogeneous data domains and facilitates efficient probabilistic inference even when no closed-form density function is available. We show that the structure and parameters of CCs can be learned efficiently from the data and find that CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators for heterogeneous data domains on common benchmark data sets.

We design replicable algorithms in the context of statistical clustering under the recently introduced notion of replicability from Impagliazzo et al. [2022]. According to this definition, a clustering algorithm is replicable if, with high probability, its output induces the exact same partition of the sample space after two executions on different inputs drawn from the same distribution, when its internal randomness is shared across the executions. We propose such algorithms for the statistical $k$-medians, statistical $k$-means, and statistical $k$-centers problems by utilizing approximation routines for their combinatorial counterparts in a black-box manner. In particular, we demonstrate a replicable $O(1)$-approximation algorithm for statistical Euclidean $k$-medians ($k$-means) with $\operatorname{poly}(d)$ sample complexity. We also describe an $O(1)$-approximation algorithm with an additional $O(1)$-additive error for statistical Euclidean $k$-centers, albeit with $\exp(d)$ sample complexity. In addition, we provide experiments on synthetic distributions in 2D using the $k$-means++ implementation from sklearn as a black-box that validate our theoretical results.

Interpretability methods are valuable only if their explanations faithfully describe the explained model. In this work, we consider neural networks whose predictions are invariant under a specific symmetry group. This includes popular architectures, ranging from convolutional to graph neural networks. Any explanation that faithfully explains this type of model needs to be in agreement with this invariance property. We formalize this intuition through the notion of explanation invariance and equivariance by leveraging the formalism from geometric deep learning. Through this rigorous formalism, we derive (1) two metrics to measure the robustness of any interpretability method with respect to the model symmetry group; (2) theoretical robustness guarantees for some popular interpretability methods and (3) a systematic approach to increase the invariance of any interpretability method with respect to a symmetry group. By empirically measuring our metrics for explanations of models associated with various modalities and symmetry groups, we derive a set of 5 guidelines to allow users and developers of interpretability methods to produce robust explanations.

Large-scale text-to-image generative models have been a ground-breaking development in generative AI, with diffusion models showing their astounding ability to synthesize convincing images following an input text prompt. The goal of image editing research is to give users control over the generated images by modifying the text prompt. Current image editing techniques are susceptible to unintended modifications of regions outside the targeted area, such as on the background or on distractor objects which have some semantic or visual relationship with the targeted object. According to our experimental findings, inaccurate cross-attention maps are at the root of this problem. Based on this observation, we propose $\textit{Dynamic Prompt Learning}$ ($DPL$) to force cross-attention maps to focus on correct $\textit{noun}$ words in the text prompt. By updating the dynamic tokens for nouns in the textual input with the proposed leakage repairment losses, we achieve fine-grained image editing over particular objects while preventing undesired changes to other image regions. Our method $DPL$, based on the publicly available $\textit{Stable Diffusion}$, is extensively evaluated on a wide range of images, and consistently obtains superior results both quantitatively (CLIP score, Structure-Dist) and qualitatively (on user-evaluation). We show improved prompt editing results for Word-Swap, Prompt Refinement, and Attention Re-weighting, especially for complex multi-object scenes.

Existing point cloud based 3D detectors are designed for the particular scene, either indoor or outdoor ones. Because of the substantial differences in object distribution and point density within point clouds collected from various environments, coupled with the intricate nature of 3D metrics, there is still a lack of a unified network architecture that can accommodate diverse scenes. In this paper, we propose Uni3DETR, a unified 3D detector that addresses indoor and outdoor 3D detection within the same framework. Specifically, we employ the detection transformer with point-voxel interaction for object prediction, which leverages voxel features and points for cross-attention and behaves resistant to the discrepancies from data. We then propose the mixture of query points, which sufficiently exploits global information for dense small-range indoor scenes and local information for large-range sparse outdoor ones. Furthermore, our proposed decoupled IoU provides an easy-to-optimize training target for localization by disentangling the $xy$ and $z$ space. Extensive experiments validate that Uni3DETR exhibits excellent performance consistently on both indoor and outdoor 3D detection. In contrast to previous specialized detectors, which may perform well on some particular datasets but suffer a substantial degradation on different scenes, Uni3DETR demonstrates the strong generalization ability under heterogeneous conditions (Fig. 1).

Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to be close to the target posterior, optimizing an appropriate objective such as the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this work, we present a new approach to VI. Our method is based on the principle of score matching---namely, that if two distributions are equal then their score functions (i.e., gradients of the log density) are equal at every point on their support. With this principle, we develop score-matching VI, an iterative algorithm that seeks to match the scores between the variational approximation and the exact posterior. At each iteration, score-matching VI solves an inner optimization, one that minimally adjusts the current variational estimate to match the scores at a newly sampled value of the latent variables. We show that when the variational family is a Gaussian, this inner optimization enjoys a closed-form solution, which we call Gaussian score matching VI (GSM-VI). GSM-VI is a ``black box'' variational algorithm in that it only requires a differentiable joint distribution, and as such it can be applied to a wide class of models. We compare GSM-VI to black box variational inference (BBVI), which has similar requirements but instead optimizes the ELBO. We first study how GSM-VI behaves as a function of the problem dimensionality, the condition number of the target covariance matrix (when the target is Gaussian), and the degree of mismatch between the approximating and exact posterior distribution. We then study GSM-VI on a collection of real-world Bayesian inference problems from the posteriorDB database of datasets and models. We find that GSM-VI is faster than BBVI and equally or more accurate. Specifically, over a wide range of target posteriors, GSM-VI requires 10-100x fewer gradient evaluations than BBVI to obtain a comparable quality of approximation.

As deep neural networks are highly expressive, it is important to find solutions with small generalization gap (the difference between the performance on the training data and unseen data). Focusing on the stochastic nature of training, we first present a theoretical analysis in which the bound of generalization gap depends on what we call inconsistency and instability of model outputs, which can be estimated on unlabeled data. Our empirical study based on this analysis shows that instability and inconsistency are strongly predictive of generalization gap in various settings. In particular, our finding indicates that inconsistency is a more reliable indicator of generalization gap than the sharpness of the loss landscape. Furthermore, we show that algorithmic reduction of inconsistency leads to superior performance. The results also provide a theoretical basis for existing methods such as co-distillation and ensemble.

We initiate the study of smoothed analysis for the sequential probability assignment problem with contexts. We study information-theoretically optimal minmax rates as well as a framework for algorithmic reduction involving the maximum likelihood estimator oracle. Our approach establishes a general-purpose reduction from minimax rates for sequential probability assignment for smoothed adversaries to minimax rates for transductive learning. This leads to optimal (logarithmic) fast rates for parametric classes and classes with finite VC dimension. On the algorithmic front, we develop an algorithm that efficiently taps into the MLE oracle, for general classes of functions. We show that under general conditions this algorithmic approach yields sublinear regret.

The availability of challenging benchmarks has played a key role in the recent progress of machine learning. In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) has become a popular testbed for centralised training with decentralised execution. However, after years of sustained improvement on SMAC, algorithms now achieve near-perfect performance. In this work, we conduct new analysis demonstrating that SMAC lacks the stochasticity and partial observability to require complex *closed-loop* policies. In particular, we show that an *open-loop* policy conditioned only on the timestep can achieve non-trivial win rates for many SMAC scenarios. To address this limitation, we introduce SMACv2, a new version of the benchmark where scenarios are procedurally generated and require agents to generalise to previously unseen settings (from the same distribution) during evaluation. We also introduce the extended partial observability challenge (EPO), which augments SMACv2 to ensure meaningful partial observability. We show that these changes ensure the benchmark requires the use of *closed-loop* policies. We evaluate state-of-the-art algorithms on SMACv2 and show that it presents significant challenges not present in the original benchmark. Our analysis illustrates that SMACv2 addresses the discovered deficiencies of SMAC and can help benchmark the next generation of MARL methods. Videos of training are available on our [website](https://sites.google.com/view/smacv2).

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling using unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a biased coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by composing two transformations: (i) a debiasing step via an optimal transport map, and (ii) an upsampling step achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with a posteriori conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without needing paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of $8\times$ and $16\times$. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/probabilistic_diffusion.

Recently, a new class of non-convex optimization problems motivated by the statistical problem of learning an acyclic directed graphical model from data has attracted significant interest. While existing work uses standard first-order optimization schemes to solve this problem, proving the global optimality of such approaches has proven elusive. The difficulty lies in the fact that unlike other non-convex problems in the literature, this problem is not "benign", and possesses multiple spurious solutions that standard approaches can easily get trapped in. In this paper, we prove that a simple path-following optimization scheme globally converges to the global minimum of the population loss in the bivariate setting.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) often suffer from the sensitivity issue under model ambiguity. In recent years, robust MDPs have emerged as an effective framework to overcome this challenge. Distributionally robust MDPs extend the robust MDP framework by incorporating distributional information of the uncertain model parameters to alleviate the conservative nature of robust MDPs. This paper proposes a computationally efficient solution framework for solving distributionally robust MDPs with Wasserstein ambiguity sets. By exploiting the specific problem structure, the proposed framework decomposes the optimization problems associated with distributionally robust Bellman updates into smaller subproblems, which can be solved efficiently. The overall complexity of the proposed algorithm is quasi-linear in both the numbers of states and actions when the distance metric of the Wasserstein distance is chosen to be $L_1$, $L_2$, or $L_{\infty}$ norm, and so the computational cost of distributional robustness is substantially reduced. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithms outperform other state-of-the-art solution methods.