NeurIPS 2015 Papers

We study the restless bandit associated with an extremely simple scalar Kalman filter model in discrete time. Under certain assumptions, we prove that the problem is {\it indexable} in the sense that the {\it Whittle index} is a non-decreasing function of the relevant belief state. In spite of the long history of this problem, this appears to be the first such proof. We use results about {\it Schur-convexity} and {\it mechanical words}, which are particularbinary strings intimately related to {\it palindromes}.

We introduce a unifying generalization of the Lovász theta function, and the associated geometric embedding, for graphs with weights on both nodes and edges. We show how it can be computed exactly by semidefinite programming, and how to approximate it using SVM computations. We show how the theta function can be interpreted as a measure of diversity in graphs and use this idea, and the graph embedding in algorithms for Max-Cut, correlation clustering and document summarization, all of which are well represented as problems on weighted graphs.

An important problem for both graphics and vision is to synthesize novel views of a 3D object from a single image. This is in particular challenging due to the partial observability inherent in projecting a 3D object onto the image space, and the ill-posedness of inferring object shape and pose. However, we can train a neural network to address the problem if we restrict our attention to specific object classes (in our case faces and chairs) for which we can gather ample training data. In this paper, we propose a novel recurrent convolutional encoder-decoder network that is trained end-to-end on the task of rendering rotated objects starting from a single image. The recurrent structure allows our model to capture long- term dependencies along a sequence of transformations, and we demonstrate the quality of its predictions for human faces on the Multi-PIE dataset and for a dataset of 3D chair models, and also show its ability of disentangling latent data factors without using object class labels.

In this paper, we study the problem of answering visual analogy questions. These questions take the form of image A is to image B as image C is to what. Answering these questions entails discovering the mapping from image A to image B and then extending the mapping to image C and searching for the image D such that the relation from A to B holds for C to D. We pose this problem as learning an embedding that encourages pairs of analogous images with similar transformations to be close together using convolutional neural networks with a quadruple Siamese architecture. We introduce a dataset of visual analogy questions in natural images, and show first results of its kind on solving analogy questions on natural images.

The mutual information is a core statistical quantity that has applications in all areas of machine learning, whether this is in training of density models over multiple data modalities, in maximising the efficiency of noisy transmission channels, or when learning behaviour policies for exploration by artificial agents. Most learning algorithms that involve optimisation of the mutual information rely on the Blahut-Arimoto algorithm --- an enumerative algorithm with exponential complexity that is not suitable for modern machine learning applications. This paper provides a new approach for scalable optimisation of the mutual information by merging techniques from variational inference and deep learning. We develop our approach by focusing on the problem of intrinsically-motivated learning, where the mutual information forms the definition of a well-known internal drive known as empowerment. Using a variational lower bound on the mutual information, combined with convolutional networks for handling visual input streams, we develop a stochastic optimisation algorithm that allows for scalable information maximisation and empowerment-based reasoning directly from pixels to actions.

We explore an as yet unexploited opportunity for drastically improving the efficiency of stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) with global model parameters. Regular SGVB estimators rely on sampling of parameters once per minibatch of data, and have variance that is constant w.r.t. the minibatch size. The efficiency of such estimators can be drastically improved upon by translating uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such reparameterizations with local noise can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence.We find an important connection with regularization by dropout: the original Gaussian dropout objective corresponds to SGVB with local noise, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose \emph{variational dropout}, a generalization of Gaussian dropout, but with a more flexibly parameterized posterior, often leading to better generalization. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Carlo algorithm removes this limitation by partitioning the data and drawing samples conditional on each partition in parallel (Scott et al, 2013). A fixed aggregation function then combines these samples, yielding approximate posterior samples. We introduce variational consensus Monte Carlo (VCMC), a variational Bayes algorithm that optimizes over aggregation functions to obtain samples from a distribution that better approximates the target. The resulting objective contains an intractable entropy term; we therefore derive a relaxation of the objective and show that the relaxed problem is blockwise concave under mild conditions. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm on three inference tasks from the literature, demonstrating both the superior quality of the posterior approximation and the moderate overhead of the optimization step. Our algorithm achieves a relative error reduction (measured against serial MCMC) of up to 39% compared to consensus Monte Carlo on the task of estimating 300-dimensional probit regression parameter expectations; similarly, it achieves an error reduction of 92% on the task of estimating cluster comembership probabilities in a Gaussian mixture model with 8 components in 8 dimensions. Furthermore, these gains come at moderate cost compared to the runtime of serial MCMC, achieving near-ideal speedup in some instances.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is a workhorse in machine learning, yet it is also known to be slow relative to steepest descent. Recently, variance reduction techniques such as SVRG and SAGA have been proposed to overcome this weakness. With asymptotically vanishing variance, a constant step size can be maintained, resulting in geometric convergence rates. However, these methods are either based on occasional computations of full gradients at pivot points (SVRG), or on keeping per data point corrections in memory (SAGA). This has the disadvantage that one cannot employ these methods in a streaming setting and that speed-ups relative to SGD may need a certain number of epochs in order to materialize. This paper investigates a new class of algorithms that can exploit neighborhood structure in the training data to share and re-use information about past stochastic gradients across data points. While not meant to be offering advantages in an asymptotic setting, there are significant benefits in the transient optimization phase, in particular in a streaming or single-epoch setting. We investigate this family of algorithms in a thorough analysis and show supporting experimental results. As a side-product we provide a simple and unified proof technique for a broad class of variance reduction algorithms.

We introduce an unsupervised learning algorithmthat combines probabilistic modeling with solver-based techniques for program synthesis.We apply our techniques to both a visual learning domain and a language learning problem,showing that our algorithm can learn many visual concepts from only a few examplesand that it can recover some English inflectional morphology.Taken together, these results give both a new approach to unsupervised learning of symbolic compositional structures,and a technique for applying program synthesis tools to noisy data.

Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability. This variability is thought to arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as non-stationarity. To better understand the nature of co-variability in neural circuits and their impact on cortical information processing, we introduce a hierarchical dynamics model that is able to capture inter-trial modulations in firing rates, as well as neural population dynamics. We derive an algorithm for Bayesian Laplace propagation for fast posterior inference, and demonstrate that our model provides a better account of the structure of neural firing than existing stationary dynamics models, when applied to neural population recordings from primary visual cortex.

Matrix completion problems have been widely studied under special low dimensional structures such as low rank or structure induced by decomposable norms. In this paper, we present a unified analysis of matrix completion under general low-dimensional structural constraints induced by {\em any} norm regularization.We consider two estimators for the general problem of structured matrix completion, and provide unified upper bounds on the sample complexity and the estimation error. Our analysis relies on generic chaining, and we establish two intermediate results of independent interest: (a) in characterizing the size or complexity of low dimensional subsets in high dimensional ambient space, a certain \textit{\modified}~complexity measure encountered in the analysis of matrix completion problems is characterized in terms of a well understood complexity measure of Gaussian widths, and (b) it is shown that a form of restricted strong convexity holds for matrix completion problems under general norm regularization. Further, we provide several non-trivial examples of structures included in our framework, notably including the recently proposed spectral $k$-support norm.

Normalized random measures (NRMs) provide a broad class of discrete random measures that are often used as priors for Bayesian nonparametric models. Dirichlet process is a well-known example of NRMs. Most of posterior inference methods for NRM mixture models rely on MCMC methods since they are easy to implement and their convergence is well studied. However, MCMC often suffers from slow convergence when the acceptance rate is low. Tree-based inference is an alternative deterministic posterior inference method, where Bayesian hierarchical clustering (BHC) or incremental Bayesian hierarchical clustering (IBHC) have been developed for DP or NRM mixture (NRMM) models, respectively. Although IBHC is a promising method for posterior inference for NRMM models due to its efficiency and applicability to online inference, its convergence is not guaranteed since it uses heuristics that simply selects the best solution after multiple trials are made. In this paper, we present a hybrid inference algorithm for NRMM models, which combines the merits of both MCMC and IBHC. Trees built by IBHC outlinespartitions of data, which guides Metropolis-Hastings procedure to employ appropriate proposals. Inheriting the nature of MCMC, our tree-guided MCMC (tgMCMC) is guaranteed to converge, and enjoys the fast convergence thanks to the effective proposals guided by trees. Experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets demonstrate the benefit of our method.

Restricted Boltzmann machines are undirected neural networks which have been shown tobe effective in many applications, including serving as initializations fortraining deep multi-layer neural networks. One of the main reasons for their success is theexistence of efficient and practical stochastic algorithms, such as contrastive divergence,for unsupervised training. We propose an alternative deterministic iterative procedure based on an improved mean field method from statistical physics known as the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer approach. We demonstrate that our algorithm provides performance equal to, and sometimes superior to, persistent contrastive divergence, while also providing a clear and easy to evaluate objective function. We believe that this strategycan be easily generalized to other models as well as to more accurate higher-order approximations, paving the way for systematic improvements in training Boltzmann machineswith hidden units.

Tractable learning aims to learn probabilistic models where inference is guaranteed to be efficient. However, the particular class of queries that is tractable depends on the model and underlying representation. Usually this class is MPE or conditional probabilities $\Pr(\xs|\ys)$ for joint assignments~$\xs,\ys$. We propose a tractable learner that guarantees efficient inference for a broader class of queries. It simultaneously learns a Markov network and its tractable circuit representation, in order to guarantee and measure tractability. Our approach differs from earlier work by using Sentential Decision Diagrams (SDD) as the tractable language instead of Arithmetic Circuits (AC). SDDs have desirable properties, which more general representations such as ACs lack, that enable basic primitives for Boolean circuit compilation. This allows us to support a broader class of complex probability queries, including counting, threshold, and parity, in polytime.

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width~2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound $k$, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter $k$. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice.

By making personalized suggestions, a recommender system is playing a crucial role in improving the engagement of users in modern web-services. However, most recommendation algorithms do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users. Two central but less explored questions are how to recommend the most desirable item \emph{at the right moment}, and how to predict \emph{the next returning time} of a user to a service. To address these questions, we propose a novel framework which connects self-exciting point processes and low-rank models to capture the recurrent temporal patterns in a large collection of user-item consumption pairs. We show that the parameters of the model can be estimated via a convex optimization, and furthermore, we develop an efficient algorithm that maintains $O(1 / \epsilon)$ convergence rate, scales up to problems with millions of user-item pairs and thousands of millions of temporal events. Compared to other state-of-the-arts in both synthetic and real datasets, our model achieves superb predictive performance in the two time-sensitive recommendation questions. Finally, we point out that our formulation can incorporate other extra context information of users, such as profile, textual and spatial features.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets.

To infer a multilayer representation of high-dimensional count vectors, we propose the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN) that factorizes each of its layers into the product of a connection weight matrix and the nonnegative real hidden units of the next layer. The PGBN's hidden layers are jointly trained with an upward-downward Gibbs sampler, each iteration of which upward samples Dirichlet distributed connection weight vectors starting from the first layer (bottom data layer), and then downward samples gamma distributed hidden units starting from the top hidden layer. The gamma-negative binomial process combined with a layer-wise training strategy allows the PGBN to infer the width of each layer given a fixed budget on the width of the first layer. The PGBN with a single hidden layer reduces to Poisson factor analysis. Example results on text analysis illustrate interesting relationships between the width of the first layer and the inferred network structure, and demonstrate that the PGBN, whose hidden units are imposed with correlated gamma priors, can add more layers to increase its performance gains over Poisson factor analysis, given the same limit on the width of the first layer.

Given a multi-armed bandit problem it may be desirable to achieve a smaller-than-usual worst-case regret for some special actions. I show that the price for such unbalanced worst-case regret guarantees is rather high. Specifically, if an algorithm enjoys a worst-case regret of B with respect to some action, then there must exist another action for which the worst-case regret is at least Ω(nK/B), where n is the horizon and K the number of actions. I also give upper bounds in both the stochastic and adversarial settings showing that this result cannot be improved. For the stochastic case the pareto regret frontier is characterised exactly up to constant factors.