NeurIPS 2015 Papers

We propose the infinite factorial dynamic model (iFDM), a general Bayesian nonparametric model for source separation. Our model builds on the Markov Indian buffet process to consider a potentially unbounded number of hidden Markov chains (sources) that evolve independently according to some dynamics, in which the state space can be either discrete or continuous. For posterior inference, we develop an algorithm based on particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling that can be efficiently applied to a wide range of source separation problems. We evaluate the performance of our iFDM on four well-known applications: multitarget tracking, cocktail party, power disaggregation, and multiuser detection. Our experimental results show that our approach for source separation does not only outperform previous approaches, but it can also handle problems that were computationally intractable for existing approaches.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are point process models thatnaturally encode diversity between the points of agiven realization, through a positive definite kernel $K$. DPPs possess desirable properties, such as exactsampling or analyticity of the moments, but learning the parameters ofkernel $K$ through likelihood-based inference is notstraightforward. First, the kernel that appears in thelikelihood is not $K$, but another kernel $L$ related to $K$ throughan often intractable spectral decomposition. This issue is typically bypassed in machine learning bydirectly parametrizing the kernel $L$, at the price of someinterpretability of the model parameters. We follow this approachhere. Second, the likelihood has an intractable normalizingconstant, which takes the form of large determinant in the case of aDPP over a finite set of objects, and the form of a Fredholm determinant in thecase of a DPP over a continuous domain. Our main contribution is to derive bounds on the likelihood ofa DPP, both for finite and continuous domains. Unlike previous work, our bounds arecheap to evaluate since they do not rely on approximating the spectrumof a large matrix or an operator. Through usual arguments, these bounds thus yield cheap variationalinference and moderately expensive exact Markov chain Monte Carlo inference methods for DPPs.

This paper provides the first formalization of self-interested planning in multiagent settings using expectation-maximization (EM). Our formalization in the context of infinite-horizon and finitely-nested interactive POMDPs (I-POMDP) is distinct from EM formulations for POMDPs and cooperative multiagent planning frameworks. We exploit the graphical model structure specific to I-POMDPs, and present a new approach based on block-coordinate descent for further speed up. Forward filtering-backward sampling -- a combination of exact filtering with sampling -- is explored to exploit problem structure.

The iteration complexity of the block-coordinate descent (BCD) type algorithm has been under extensive investigation. It was recently shown that for convex problems the classical cyclic BCGD (block coordinate gradient descent) achieves an O(1/r) complexity (r is the number of passes of all blocks). However, such bounds are at least linearly depend on $K$ (the number of variable blocks), and are at least $K$ times worse than those of the gradient descent (GD) and proximal gradient (PG) methods.In this paper, we close such theoretical performance gap between cyclic BCD and GD/PG. First we show that for a family of quadratic nonsmooth problems, the complexity bounds for cyclic Block Coordinate Proximal Gradient (BCPG), a popular variant of BCD, can match those of the GD/PG in terms of dependency on $K$ (up to a \log^2(K) factor). Second, we establish an improved complexity bound for Coordinate Gradient Descent (CGD) for general convex problems which can match that of GD in certain scenarios. Our bounds are sharper than the known bounds as they are always at least $K$ times worse than GD. {Our analyses do not depend on the update order of block variables inside each cycle, thus our results also apply to BCD methods with random permutation (random sampling without replacement, another popular variant).

Imagine a random walk that outputs a state only when visiting it for the first time. The observed output is therefore a repeat-censored version of the underlying walk, and consists of a permutation of the states or a prefix of it. We call this model initial-visit emitting random walk (INVITE). Prior work has shown that the random walks with such a repeat-censoring mechanism explain well human behavior in memory search tasks, which is of great interest in both the study of human cognition and various clinical applications. However, parameter estimation in INVITE is challenging, because naive likelihood computation by marginalizing over infinitely many hidden random walk trajectories is intractable. In this paper, we propose the first efficient maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for INVITE by decomposing the censored output into a series of absorbing random walks. We also prove theoretical properties of the MLE including identifiability and consistency. We show that INVITE outperforms several existing methods on real-world human response data from memory search tasks.

We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM algorithm which naturally incorporates sparsity structure into parameter estimation. With an appropriate initialization, this algorithm converges at a geometric rate and attains an estimator with the (near-)optimal statistical rate of convergence. (ii) Based on the obtained estimator, we propose a new inferential procedure for testing hypotheses for low dimensional components of high dimensional parameters. For a broad family of statistical models, our framework establishes the first computationally feasible approach for optimal estimation and asymptotic inference in high dimensions.

Machine learning offers a fantastically powerful toolkit for building useful complexprediction systems quickly. This paper argues it is dangerous to think ofthese quick wins as coming for free. Using the software engineering frameworkof technical debt, we find it is common to incur massive ongoing maintenancecosts in real-world ML systems. We explore several ML-specific risk factors toaccount for in system design. These include boundary erosion, entanglement,hidden feedback loops, undeclared consumers, data dependencies, configurationissues, changes in the external world, and a variety of system-level anti-patterns.

Multidimensional recurrent neural networks (MDRNNs) have shown a remarkable performance in the area of speech and handwriting recognition. The performance of an MDRNN is improved by further increasing its depth, and the difficulty of learning the deeper network is overcome by using Hessian-free (HF) optimization. Given that connectionist temporal classification (CTC) is utilized as an objective of learning an MDRNN for sequence labeling, the non-convexity of CTC poses a problem when applying HF to the network. As a solution, a convex approximation of CTC is formulated and its relationship with the EM algorithm and the Fisher information matrix is discussed. An MDRNN up to a depth of 15 layers is successfully trained using HF, resulting in an improved performance for sequence labeling.

Random walk kernels measure graph similarity by counting matching walks in two graphs. In their most popular form of geometric random walk kernels, longer walks of length $k$ are downweighted by a factor of $\lambda^k$ ($\lambda < 1$) to ensure convergence of the corresponding geometric series. We know from the field of link prediction that this downweighting often leads to a phenomenon referred to as halting: Longer walks are downweighted so much that the similarity score is completely dominated by the comparison of walks of length 1. This is a naive kernel between edges and vertices. We theoretically show that halting may occur in geometric random walk kernels. We also empirically quantify its impact in simulated datasets and popular graph classification benchmark datasets. Our findings promise to be instrumental in future graph kernel development and applications of random walk kernels.

Recent years have witnessed the superiority of non-convex sparse learning formulations over their convex counterparts in both theory and practice. However, due to the non-convexity and non-smoothness of the regularizer, how to efficiently solve the non-convex optimization problem for large-scale data is still quite challenging. In this paper, we propose an efficient \underline{H}ybrid \underline{O}ptimization algorithm for \underline{NO}n convex \underline{R}egularized problems (HONOR). Specifically, we develop a hybrid scheme which effectively integrates a Quasi-Newton (QN) step and a Gradient Descent (GD) step. Our contributions are as follows: (1) HONOR incorporates the second-order information to greatly speed up the convergence, while it avoids solving a regularized quadratic programming and only involves matrix-vector multiplications without explicitly forming the inverse Hessian matrix. (2) We establish a rigorous convergence analysis for HONOR, which shows that convergence is guaranteed even for non-convex problems, while it is typically challenging to analyze the convergence for non-convex problems. (3) We conduct empirical studies on large-scale data sets and results demonstrate that HONOR converges significantly faster than state-of-the-art algorithms.

Syntactic constituency parsing is a fundamental problem in naturallanguage processing which has been the subject of intensive researchand engineering for decades. As a result, the most accurate parsersare domain specific, complex, and inefficient. In this paper we showthat the domain agnostic attention-enhanced sequence-to-sequence modelachieves state-of-the-art results on the most widely used syntacticconstituency parsing dataset, when trained on a large synthetic corpusthat was annotated using existing parsers. It also matches theperformance of standard parsers when trained on a smallhuman-annotated dataset, which shows that this model is highlydata-efficient, in contrast to sequence-to-sequence models without theattention mechanism. Our parser is also fast, processing over ahundred sentences per second with an unoptimized CPU implementation.

We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential family model in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Computational costs are reduced by two novel efficient approximations to this gradient. While being asymptotically exact, KMC mimics HMC in terms of sampling efficiency, and offers substantial mixing improvements over state-of-the-art gradient free samplers. We support our claims with experimental studies on both toy and real-world applications, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and exact-approximate MCMC.

In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external world. Estimating the gradient of this loss function, using samples, lies at the core of gradient-based learning algorithms for these problems. We introduce the formalism of stochastic computation graphs--directed acyclic graphs that include both deterministic functions and conditional probability distributions and describe how to easily and automatically derive an unbiased estimator of the loss function's gradient. The resulting algorithm for computing the gradient estimator is a simple modification of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The generic scheme we propose unifies estimators derived in variety of prior work, along with variance-reduction techniques therein. It could assist researchers in developing intricate models involving a combination of stochastic and deterministic operations, enabling, for example, attention, memory, and control actions.

Modeling the distribution of natural images is challenging, partly because of strong statistical dependencies which can extend over hundreds of pixels. Recurrent neural networks have been successful in capturing long-range dependencies in a number of problems but only recently have found their way into generative image models. We here introduce a recurrent image model based on multi-dimensional long short-term memory units which are particularly suited for image modeling due to their spatial structure. Our model scales to images of arbitrary size and its likelihood is computationally tractable. We find that it outperforms the state of the art in quantitative comparisons on several image datasets and produces promising results when used for texture synthesis and inpainting.

Overfitting is the bane of data analysts, even when data are plentiful. Formal approaches to understanding this problem focus on statistical inference and generalization of individual analysis procedures. Yet the practice of data analysis is an inherently interactive and adaptive process: new analyses and hypotheses are proposed after seeing the results of previous ones, parameters are tuned on the basis of obtained results, and datasets are shared and reused. An investigation of this gap has recently been initiated by the authors in (Dwork et al., 2014), where we focused on the problem of estimating expectations of adaptively chosen functions.In this paper, we give a simple and practical method for reusing a holdout (or testing) set to validate the accuracy of hypotheses produced by a learning algorithm operating on a training set. Reusing a holdout set adaptively multiple times can easily lead to overfitting to the holdout set itself. We give an algorithm that enables the validation of a large number of adaptively chosen hypotheses, while provably avoiding overfitting. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm over the standard use of the holdout set via a simple synthetic experiment.We also formalize and address the general problem of data reuse in adaptive data analysis. We show how the differential-privacy based approach in (Dwork et al., 2014) is applicable much more broadly to adaptive data analysis. We then show that a simple approach based on description length can also be used to give guarantees of statistical validity in adaptive settings. Finally, we demonstrate that these incomparable approaches can be unified via the notion of approximate max-information that we introduce. This, in particular, allows the preservation of statistical validity guarantees even when an analyst adaptively composes algorithms which have guarantees based on either of the two approaches.

Gaussian processes have been successful in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning tasks, but their computational complexity has constrained practical applications. We introduce a new approximation for large-scale Gaussian processes, the Gaussian Process Random Field (GPRF), in which local GPs are coupled via pairwise potentials. The GPRF likelihood is a simple, tractable, and parallelizeable approximation to the full GP marginal likelihood, enabling latent variable modeling and hyperparameter selection on large datasets. We demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic spatial data as well as a real-world application to seismic event location.

Humans demonstrate remarkable abilities to predict physical events in dynamic scenes, and to infer the physical properties of objects from static images. We propose a generative model for solving these problems of physical scene understanding from real-world videos and images. At the core of our generative model is a 3D physics engine, operating on an object-based representation of physical properties, including mass, position, 3D shape, and friction. We can infer these latent properties using relatively brief runs of MCMC, which drive simulations in the physics engine to fit key features of visual observations. We further explore directly mapping visual inputs to physical properties, inverting a part of the generative process using deep learning. We name our model Galileo, and evaluate it on a video dataset with simple yet physically rich scenarios. Results show that Galileo is able to infer the physical properties of objects and predict the outcome of a variety of physical events, with an accuracy comparable to human subjects. Our study points towards an account of human vision with generative physical knowledge at its core, and various recognition models as helpers leading to efficient inference.

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, Wilson and Adams (2013) proposed the spectral mixture (SM) kernel to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. In this paper, we develop a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. We demonstrate the expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel through implementation of a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

High dimensional regression benefits from sparsity promoting regularizations. Screening rules leverage the known sparsity of the solution by ignoring some variables in the optimization, hence speeding up solvers. When the procedure is proven not to discard features wrongly the rules are said to be safe. In this paper we derive new safe rules for generalized linear models regularized with L1 and L1/L2 norms. The rules are based on duality gap computations and spherical safe regions whose diameters converge to zero. This allows to discard safely more variables, in particular for low regularization parameters. The GAP Safe rule can cope with any iterative solver and we illustrate its performance on coordinate descent for multi-task Lasso, binary and multinomial logistic regression, demonstrating significant speed ups on all tested datasets with respect to previous safe rules.