NeurIPS 2015 Papers

Most recent results in matrix completion assume that the matrix under consideration is low-rank or that the columns are in a union of low-rank subspaces. In real-world settings, however, the linear structure underlying these models is distorted by a (typically unknown) nonlinear transformation. This paper addresses the challenge of matrix completion in the face of such nonlinearities. Given a few observations of a matrix that are obtained by applying a Lipschitz, monotonic function to a low rank matrix, our task is to estimate the remaining unobserved entries. We propose a novel matrix completion method that alternates between low-rank matrix estimation and monotonic function estimation to estimate the missing matrix elements. Mean squared error bounds provide insight into how well the matrix can be estimated based on the size, rank of the matrix and properties of the nonlinear transformation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the competitiveness of the proposed approach.

A market scoring rule (MSR) – a popular tool for designing algorithmic prediction markets – is an incentive-compatible mechanism for the aggregation of probabilistic beliefs from myopic risk-neutral agents. In this paper, we add to a growing body of research aimed at understanding the precise manner in which the price process induced by a MSR incorporates private information from agents who deviate from the assumption of risk-neutrality. We first establish that, for a myopic trading agent with a risk-averse utility function, a MSR satisfying mild regularity conditions elicits the agent’s risk-neutral probability conditional on the latest market state rather than her true subjective probability. Hence, we show that a MSR under these conditions effectively behaves like a more traditional method of belief aggregation, namely an opinion pool, for agents’ true probabilities. In particular, the logarithmic market scoring rule acts as a logarithmic pool for constant absolute risk aversion utility agents, and as a linear pool for an atypical budget-constrained agent utility with decreasing absolute risk aversion. We also point out the interpretation of a market maker under these conditions as a Bayesian learner even when agent beliefs are static.

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to approximate the posterior when the likelihood is not Gaussian and how to estimate covariance function parameter posteriors. This paper simultaneously addresses these, using a variational approximation to the posterior which is sparse in sup- port of the function but otherwise free-form. The result is a Hybrid Monte-Carlo sampling scheme which allows for a non-Gaussian approximation over the function values and covariance parameters simultaneously, with efficient computations based on inducing-point sparse GPs.

Detecting the emergence of an abrupt change-point is a classic problem in statistics and machine learning. Kernel-based nonparametric statistics have been proposed for this task which make fewer assumptions on the distributions than traditional parametric approach. However, none of the existing kernel statistics has provided a computationally efficient way to characterize the extremal behavior of the statistic. Such characterization is crucial for setting the detection threshold, to control the significance level in the offline case as well as the average run length in the online case. In this paper we propose two related computationally efficient M-statistics for kernel-based change-point detection when the amount of background data is large. A novel theoretical result of the paper is the characterization of the tail probability of these statistics using a new technique based on change-of-measure. Such characterization provides us accurate detection thresholds for both offline and online cases in computationally efficient manner, without the need to resort to the more expensive simulations such as bootstrapping. We show that our methods perform well in both synthetic and real world data.

We consider the problem of finding M best diverse solutions of energy minimization problems for graphical models. Contrary to the sequential method of Batra et al., which greedily finds one solution after another, we infer all $M$ solutions jointly. It was shown recently that such jointly inferred labelings not only have smaller total energy but also qualitatively outperform the sequentially obtained ones. The only obstacle for using this new technique is the complexity of the corresponding inference problem, since it is considerably slower algorithm than the method of Batra et al. In this work we show that the joint inference of $M$ best diverse solutions can be formulated as a submodular energy minimization if the original MAP-inference problem is submodular, hence fast inference techniques can be used. In addition to the theoretical results we provide practical algorithms that outperform the current state-of-the art and can be used in both submodular and non-submodular case.

We study the problem of multiclass classification with an extremely large number of classes (k), with the goal of obtaining train and test time complexity logarithmic in the number of classes. We develop top-down tree construction approaches for constructing logarithmic depth trees. On the theoretical front, we formulate a new objective function, which is optimized at each node of the tree and creates dynamic partitions of the data which are both pure (in terms of class labels) and balanced. We demonstrate that under favorable conditions, we can construct logarithmic depth trees that have leaves with low label entropy. However, the objective function at the nodes is challenging to optimize computationally. We address the empirical problem with a new online decision tree construction procedure. Experiments demonstrate that this online algorithm quickly achieves improvement in test error compared to more common logarithmic training time approaches, which makes it a plausible method in computationally constrained large-k applications.

Abstract We propose a family of non-uniform sampling strategies to provably speed up a class of stochastic optimization algorithms with linear convergence including Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient (SVRG) and Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (SDCA). For a large family of penalized empirical risk minimization problems, our methods exploit data dependent local smoothness of the loss functions near the optimum, while maintaining convergence guarantees. Our bounds are the first to quantify the advantage gained from local smoothness which are significant for some problems significantly better. Empirically, we provide thorough numerical results to back up our theory. Additionally we present algorithms exploiting local smoothness in more aggressive ways, which perform even better in practice.

We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients by sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into smaller sub-tasks so that each sub-task explores intelligently the most relevant part of the variational distribution. This is achieved by performing an exact expectation over the single random variable that most correlates with the variational parameter of interest resulting in a Rao-Blackwellized estimate that has low variance. Our method works efficiently for both continuous and discrete random variables. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm has interesting similarities with Gibbs sampling but at the same time, unlike Gibbs sampling, can be trivially parallelized.

We focus on the discovery and identification of direct causes and effects of a target variable in a causal network. State-of-the-art algorithms generally need to find the global causal structures in the form of complete partial directed acyclic graphs in order to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable. While these algorithms are effective, it is often unnecessary and wasteful to find the global structures when we are only interested in one target variable (such as class labels). We propose a new local causal discovery algorithm, called Causal Markov Blanket (CMB), to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable based on Markov Blanket Discovery. CMB is designed to conduct causal discovery among multiple variables, but focuses only on finding causal relationships between a specific target variable and other variables. Under standard assumptions, we show both theoretically and experimentally that the proposed local causal discovery algorithm can obtain the comparable identification accuracy as global methods but significantly improve their efficiency, often by more than one order of magnitude.

Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable covariance. We generalize linear response methods from statistical physics to deliver accurate uncertainty estimates for model variables---both for individual variables and coherently across variables. We call our method linear response variational Bayes (LRVB). When the MFVB posterior approximation is in the exponential family, LRVB has a simple, analytic form, even for non-conjugate models. Indeed, we make no assumptions about the form of the true posterior. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of our method on a range of models for both simulated and real data.

We study an idealised sequential resource allocation problem. In each time step the learner chooses an allocation of several resource types between a number of tasks. Assigning more resources to a task increases the probability that it is completed. The problem is challenging because the alignment of the tasks to the resource types is unknown and the feedback is noisy. Our main contribution is the new setting and an algorithm with nearly-optimal regret analysis. Along the way we draw connections to the problem of minimising regret for stochastic linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise. We also present some new results for stochastic linear bandits on the hypercube that significantly out-performs existing work, especially in the sparse case.

Symmetry breaking is a technique for speeding up propositional satisfiability testing by adding constraints to the theory that restrict the search space while preserving satisfiability. In this work, we extend symmetry breaking to the problem of model finding in weighted and unweighted relational theories, a class of problems that includes MAP inference in Markov Logic and similar statistical-relational languages. We introduce term symmetries, which are induced by an evidence set and extend to symmetries over a relational theory. We provide the important special case of term equivalent symmetries, showing that such symmetries can be found in low-degree polynomial time. We show how to break an exponential number of these symmetries with added constraints whose number is linear in the size of the domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques through experiments in two relational domains. We also discuss the connections between relational symmetry breaking and work on lifted inference in statistical-relational reasoning.

Lifted inference rules exploit symmetries for fast reasoning in statistical rela-tional models. Computational complexity of these rules is highly dependent onthe choice of the constraint language they operate on and therefore coming upwith the right kind of representation is critical to the success of lifted inference.In this paper, we propose a new constraint language, called setineq, which allowssubset, equality and inequality constraints, to represent substitutions over the vari-ables in the theory. Our constraint formulation is strictly more expressive thanexisting representations, yet easy to operate on. We reformulate the three mainlifting rules: decomposer, generalized binomial and the recently proposed singleoccurrence for MAP inference, to work with our constraint representation. Exper-iments on benchmark MLNs for exact and sampling based inference demonstratethe effectiveness of our approach over several other existing techniques.

In this work we aim at extending theoretical foundations of lifelong learning. Previous work analyzing this scenario is based on the assumption that the tasks are sampled i.i.d. from a task environment or limited to strongly constrained data distributions. Instead we study two scenarios when lifelong learning is possible, even though the observed tasks do not form an i.i.d. sample: first, when they are sampled from the same environment, but possibly with dependencies, and second, when the task environment is allowed to change over time. In the first case we prove a PAC-Bayesian theorem, which can be seen as a direct generalization of the analogous previous result for the i.i.d. case. For the second scenario we propose to learn an inductive bias in form of a transfer procedure. We present a generalization bound and show on a toy example how it can be used to identify a beneficial transfer algorithm.

We study Nyström type subsampling approaches to large scale kernel methods, and prove learning bounds in the statistical learning setting, where random sampling and high probability estimates are considered. In particular, we prove that these approaches can achieve optimal learning bounds, provided the subsampling level is suitably chosen. These results suggest a simple incremental variant of Nyström kernel ridge regression, where the subsampling level controls at the same time regularization and computations. Extensive experimental analysis shows that the considered approach achieves state of the art performances on benchmark large scale datasets.

Learning to predict multi-label outputs is challenging, but in many problems there is a natural metric on the outputs that can be used to improve predictions. In this paper we develop a loss function for multi-label learning, based on the Wasserstein distance. The Wasserstein distance provides a natural notion of dissimilarity for probability measures. Although optimizing with respect to the exact Wasserstein distance is costly, recent work has described a regularized approximation that is efficiently computed. We describe an efficient learning algorithm based on this regularization, as well as a novel extension of the Wasserstein distance from probability measures to unnormalized measures. We also describe a statistical learning bound for the loss. The Wasserstein loss can encourage smoothness of the predictions with respect to a chosen metric on the output space. We demonstrate this property on a real-data tag prediction problem, using the Yahoo Flickr Creative Commons dataset, outperforming a baseline that doesn't use the metric.

Convex potential minimisation is the de facto approach to binary classification. However, Long and Servedio [2008] proved that under symmetric label noise (SLN), minimisation of any convex potential over a linear function class can result in classification performance equivalent to random guessing. This ostensibly shows that convex losses are not SLN-robust. In this paper, we propose a convex, classification-calibrated loss and prove that it is SLN-robust. The loss avoids the Long and Servedio [2008] result by virtue of being negatively unbounded. The loss is a modification of the hinge loss, where one does not clamp at zero; hence, we call it the unhinged loss. We show that the optimal unhinged solution is equivalent to that of a strongly regularised SVM, and is the limiting solution for any convex potential; this implies that strong l2 regularisation makes most standard learners SLN-robust. Experiments confirm the unhinged loss’ SLN-robustness.

For weakly-supervised problems with deterministic constraints between the latent variables and observed output, learning necessitates performing inference over latent variables conditioned on the output, which can be intractable no matter how simple the model family is. Even finding a single latent variable setting that satisfies the constraints could be difficult; for instance, the observed output may be the result of a latent database query or graphics program which must be inferred. Here, the difficulty lies in not the model but the supervision, and poor approximations at this stage could lead to following the wrong learning signal entirely. In this paper, we develop a rigorous approach to relaxing the supervision, which yields asymptotically consistent parameter estimates despite altering the supervision. Our approach parameterizes a family of increasingly accurate relaxations, and jointly optimizes both the model and relaxation parameters, while formulating constraints between these parameters to ensure efficient inference. These efficiency constraints allow us to learn in otherwise intractable settings, while asymptotic consistency ensures that we always follow a valid learning signal.

Within a statistical learning setting, we propose and study an iterative regularization algorithm for least squares defined by an incremental gradient method. In particular, we show that, if all other parameters are fixed a priori, the number of passes over the data (epochs) acts as a regularization parameter, and prove strong universal consistency, i.e. almost sure convergence of the risk, as well as sharp finite sample bounds for the iterates. Our results are a step towards understanding the effect of multiple epochs in stochastic gradient techniques in machine learning and rely on integrating statistical and optimizationresults.