ICML 2026 Papers

While deep learning is facing an homogenization across modalities led by Transformers, they are still challenged by shallow linear models in the time series forecasting task. Our hypothesis is that models should learn a direct link from past to future data points, which we identify as a learning dynamics capability. We develop an original $\texttt{PRO-DYN}$ nomenclature to analyze existing models through the lens of dynamics. Two observations thus emerge: **1.** under-performing architectures learn dynamics at most partially, **2.** the location of the dynamics block at the model end is of prime importance. Our systemic and empirical studies both confirm our observations on a set of performance-varying models with diverse backbones. We propose a simple plug-and-play methodology guiding model designs and improvements.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have achieved strong performance in univariate time series forecasting. However, most TSFMs rely on channel-independent pre-training that models each variable separately, limiting their ability to leverage inter-channel information that is crucial in real-world multivariate systems. Motivated by this limitation, we propose ChaTSFM, a lightweight plug-and-play channel adapter that allows frozen TSFMs to leverage multivariate correlations in a zero-shot setting. ChaTSFM first builds a budgeted pre-training dataset to cover diverse heterogeneous inter-channel dependency patterns. It then uses data-derived domain descriptors to learn a dataset-conditioned inter-channel similarity measure that reduces cross-domain metric distortion. Finally, it injects sparse inter-channel information via gated refinement, leveraging multivariate information without degrading intra-channel temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks validate the effectiveness of ChaTSFM, demonstrating consistent zero-shot improvements over four best-performing TSFMs while maintaining scalable deployment. Code is available at Code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/ChaTSFM.

Multimodal time series forecasting has garnered significant attention for its potential to provide more robust and accurate predictions than traditional single-modality models by leveraging rich information inherent in other modalities. However, due to fundamental challenges in modality alignment, existing methods often struggle to effectively incorporate multimodal data into predictions, particularly textual information that has a causal influence on time series fluctuations, such as emergency reports and policy announcements. In this paper, we reflect on the role of textual information in numerical forecasting and propose **Ti**me series transformers with Multimodal **Mi**xture-of-Experts, **TiMi**, to unleash the causal reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Concretely, TiMi utilizes language models to generate inferences on future developments, which then serve as guidance for time series forecasting. To seamlessly integrate both exogenous factors and time series into predictions, we introduce a Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MMoE) module as a lightweight plug-in to empower Transformer-based time series models for multimodal forecasting, eliminating the need for explicit representation-level alignment. Experimentally, our proposed TiMi demonstrates consistent state-of-the-art performance on sixteen real-world multimodal forecasting benchmarks, outperforming advanced baselines while offering strong adaptability and interpretability.

Reservoir Computing (RC) has established itself as an efficient paradigm for temporal processing. However, its scalability remains severely constrained by the need to process temporal data sequentially and the prohibitive memory footprint of high-dimensional reservoirs. To address these limitations, we revisit RC through the lens of structured operators and state space modeling, introducing Parallel Echo State Network (ParalESN). Leveraging diagonal linear recurrence in the complex domain, ParalESN enables parallel processing of temporal data and the construction of efficient, high-dimensional reservoirs. A thorough theoretical analysis demonstrates that the Echo State Property and the universality guarantees of traditional Echo State Networks are preserved, while also admitting an equivalent representation of arbitrary linear reservoirs in the complex diagonal form. Empirically, ParalESN achieves competitive predictive accuracy with traditional RC and with fully trainable sequence models, while delivering computational savings by orders of magnitude. Overall, ParalESN offers a scalable and principled pathway for integrating RC within the deep learning landscape.

Explainability is essential for applying time series analysis in high-stakes domains. While Time Series Captioning (TSC) offers a pathway to enhance temporal explainability, achieving reliable caption generation usually necessitates high-quality textual annotations. However, as interpreting abstract temporal dynamics requires specialized domain knowledge, acquiring such caption annotations is challenging, thereby impeding the advancement of TSC. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel Caption Label-Free Learning (CLFL) paradigm. Departing from the supervised learning tradition of imitating human annotations, CLFL formulates captioning as an agentic exploration task optimized by feedback from a proxy reward. Specifically, we propose a Dual Loop Agentic Captioning (DLAC) framework to achieve such an exploration-feedback mechanism. In the inner loop, a Time Series Captioning Agent (TSCAgent) reflectively explores potential semantic captions. In turn, the outer loop evaluates these captions via downstream reasoning to derive proxy reward, which feeds back to optimize the TSCAgent. Empirical results validate the effectiveness of the CLFL, proving that the exploration-feedback mechanism is sufficient for learning complex temporal semantics and autonomously generating captions, without any caption label supervision. Furthermore, we release TFTSC, an industrial expert-level time series caption dataset, which is available at: https://github.com/chunhuiz/TFTSC/tree/master.

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian posterior, leading to miscalibrated inference. In this work, we show that common test-time guidance methods do not recover the correct posterior distribution and identify the structural approximations responsible for this failure. We then propose consistent alternative estimators that enable calibrated sampling from the Bayesian posterior. We significantly outperform previous methods on a set of Bayesian inference tasks, and set a new state-of-the-art PSNR in black hole image reconstruction. We publish our code at https://github.com/mandt-lab/Calibrated-Guidance.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems partly from insufficiently verified context usefulness in existing datasets. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality is a major bottleneck in context-aided forecasting, and that verified context can substantially improve the usefulness of CAF training data.

Foundation models compress a large amount of information in a single, large neural network, which can then be queried for individual tasks. There are strong parallels between this widespread framework and offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning algorithms: a universal value function is trained on a large number of goals, and the policy is evaluated on a single goal in each test episode. Extensive research in foundation models has shown that performance can be substantially improved through test-time training, specializing the model to the current goal. We find similarly that test-time offline reinforcement learning on experience related to the test goal can lead to substantially better policies at modest compute costs. We propose a novel self-supervised data selection criterion, which selects transitions from an offline dataset according to their relevance to the current state and quality with respect to the evaluation goal. We demonstrate across a wide range of high-dimensional loco-navigation and manipulation tasks that fine-tuning a policy on the selected data for a few gradient steps leads to significant performance gains over standard offline pre-training. Our goal-conditioned test-time training (GC-TTT) algorithm applies this routine in a receding-horizon fashion during evaluation, adapting the policy to the current trajectory as it is being rolled out. Finally, we study compute allocation at inference, demonstrating that, at comparable costs, GC-TTT induces performance gains that are not achievable by scaling model size.

Mainstream methods for multivariate time-series forecasting largely follow the Direct-Mapping paradigm. They learn a unified mapping from history to the future in the observation space to fit value-level dependencies. However, real-world systems often undergo distribution shifts and regime changes. In such cases, a unified mapping can exhibit response lag around turning points, causing error accumulation within the switching window and reducing forecasting reliability. To address this issue, we propose L-Drive, a change-aware forecasting framework. L-Drive introduces a Latent-Context, to explicitly characterize high-level dynamics evolving over time, and uses gating to modulate increment representations. This provides more timely change cues and improves adaptation to changing segments. In addition, it incorporates patch-shared relative positional basis functions to strengthen intra-segment structural modeling and reduce overfitting caused by absolute-position memorization. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of L-Drive and show a better overall trade-off between forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

Conditional time series generation plays a critical role in addressing data scarcity and enabling causal analysis in real-world applications. Despite its increasing importance, the field lacks a standardized and systematic benchmarking framework for evaluating generative models across diverse conditions. To address this gap, we introduce the **Con**ditional **T**ime **S**eries **G**eneration **Bench**mark (ConTSG-Bench). ConTSG-Bench comprises a suite of large-scale, well-aligned datasets spanning diverse conditioning modalities and levels of semantic abstraction, enabling systematic evaluation of representative generation methods across these dimensions with a comprehensive suite of metrics for generation fidelity and condition adherence. Both the quantitative benchmarking and in-depth analyses of conditional generation behaviors have revealed the traits and limitations of the current approaches, highlighting critical challenges and promising research directions, particularly with respect to precise structural controllability and downstream task utility under complex conditions.

Inference-time scaling has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving the reasoning capability of large language models. Among various approaches, \emph{Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)} has become a particularly important framework, enabling iterative generation, evaluation, rejection, and resampling of intermediate reasoning trajectories. A central component in this process is the \emph{reward model}, which evaluates partial solutions and guides the allocation of computation during inference. However, in practice, true reward models are never available. All deployed systems rely on \emph{approximate reward models}, raising a fundamental question: \emph{Why and when do approximate reward models suffice for effective inference-time scaling?} In this work, we provide a theoretical answer. We identify the \emph{Bellman error} of the approximate reward model as the key quantity governing the effectiveness of SMC-based inference-time scaling. For a reasoning process of length $T$, we show that if the Bellman error of the approximate reward model is bounded by $O(1/T)$, then combining this reward model with SMC reduces the computational complexity of reasoning from exponential in $T$ to polynomial in $T$. This yields an \emph{exponential improvement} in inference efficiency despite using only approximate rewards.

Test-time training (TTT) with KV binding as sequence modeling layer is commonly interpreted as a form of online meta-learning that memorizes a key–value mapping at test time. However, our analysis reveals multiple phenomena that contradict this memorization-based interpretation. Motivated by these findings, we revisit the formulation of TTT and show that a broad class of TTT architectures can be expressed as a form of learned linear attention operator. Beyond explaining previously puzzling model behaviors, this perspective yields multiple practical benefits: it enables principled architectural simplifications, admits fully parallel formulations that preserve performance while improving efficiency, and provides a systematic reduction of diverse TTT variants to a standard linear attention form. Overall, our results reframe TTT not as test-time memorization, but as learned linear attention with enhanced representational capacity. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/sil/projects/tttla/.

We present Mesh Field Theory (MeshFT) and its neural realization, MeshFT-Net: a structure-preserving framework for mesh-based continuum physics that cleanly separates the physics’ topological structure from its metric structure. Imposing minimal physical principles (locality, permutation equivariance, orientation covariance, and energy balance/dissipation inequality), we prove a reduction theorem for mesh-based physics. Under these conditions, the physical dynamics admit a local factorization into a port–Hamiltonian form: the conservative interconnection is fixed uniquely by mesh topology, whereas metric effects enter only through constitutive relations and dissipation. This reduction clarifies what must be fixed and what should be learned, directly informing MeshFT-Net’s design. Across evaluations on analytic and realistic datasets, physics-consistency tests, and out-of-distribution validation, MeshFT-Net achieves near-zero energy drift and strong physical fidelity (correct dispersion and momentum conservation) along with robust extrapolation and high data efficiency. By eliminating non-physical degrees of freedom and learning only metric-dependent structure, MeshFT provides a principled inductive bias for stable, faithful, and data-efficient learning-based physical simulation.

Test-time compute (TTC) has become an increasingly prominent paradigm for enhancing large language models (LLMs). Despite the empirical success of methods such as best-of-$n$ (BoN) sampling and sequential revision, their fundamental limits remain unclear. We address this gap by analyzing a mixture-of-reference policy model and proving that standard BoN is inherently suboptimal. To move closer to the optimal frontier, we study reward-filtered sequential inference, a simple procedure that selectively incorporates only high-reward generations into the context. This mechanism concentrates computation on superior policy candidates and suppresses inferior ones. On the theoretical side, we show that reward-filtered sequential inference yields strictly stronger guarantees than standard TTC paradigms. On the empirical side, we evaluate such an inference strategy across diverse benchmarks and observe consistent improvements over widely used approaches, demonstrating the practical effectiveness of our framework.

We propose non-parametric estimators for the average run length (ARL) and average detection delay (ADD) in quickest changepoint detection (QCD) under finite and irregular sequence lengths. Although ARL and ADD are widely used as optimality criteria in theoretical and simulation studies, their application to real-world datasets is hindered by limited and irregular sequence lengths. To address this issue, we propose non-parametric estimators for the ARL and ADD, termed _KM-ARL and KM-ADD_, by drawing an analogy between QCD and survival analysis to model detection probabilities under sequence truncation. We derive estimation bias bounds and prove that they are asymptotically unbiased unless extrapolation is required. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate their practical utility, enhancing robustness against limited and irregular sequence lengths, improving interpretability, and facilitating empirical, intuitive model selection. Our Python code is provided at https://github.com/TaikiMiyagawa/Kaplan-Meier-Average-Run-Length, offering ready-to-use implementations for practitioners.

Verification of model outputs is rapidly emerging as a key primitive for both training and real-world deployment of large language models (LLMs). In practice, this often involves using imperfect LLM judges and reward models since ground truth acquisition can be time-consuming and expensive. We introduce Fully Unsupervised Score Ensembling (FUSE), a method for improving verification quality by ensembling verifiers without access to ground truth correctness labels. The key idea behind FUSE is to control conditional dependencies between verifiers in a manner that improves the unsupervised performance of a class of spectral algorithms from the ensembling literature. Despite requiring zero ground truth labels, FUSE typically matches or improves upon semi-supervised alternatives in test-time scaling experiments with diverse sets of generator models, verifiers, and benchmarks. In particular, we validate our method on both conventional academic benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond and on frontier, unsaturated benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam and IMO Shortlist questions.

Time series forecasting can be viewed as a generative problem that requires both semantic understanding over contextual conditions and stochastic modeling of continuous temporal dynamics. Existing approaches typically rely on either autoregressive large language models (LLMs) for semantic context modeling or diffusion-like models for continuous probabilistic generation. However, neither method alone can adequately model both aspects simultaneously. In this work, we propose CoGenCast, a hybrid generative framework that couples pre-trained LLMs with flow-matching mechanism for effective time series forecasting. Specifically, we reconfigure pre-trained decoder-only LLMs into a native forecasting encoder–decoder backbone by modifying only the attention topology, enabling bidirectional context encoding and causal representation generation. Building on this, a flow-matching mechanism is further integrated to model temporal evolution, capturing continuous stochastic dynamics conditioned on the autoregressively generated representation. Notably, CoGenCast naturally supports multimodal forecasting and cross-domain unified training. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that CoGenCast achieves competitive performance compared to previous baselines. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/liuyaguo/_CoGenCast}.

Multivariate time-series forecasting (MTSF) learns from high-dimensional covariates with strong temporal dependence, periodic structure, and cross-variable correlations. While modern pipelines often mitigate non-stationarity through instance-wise normalization and decomposition, these interventions operate at the data level and do not directly control dependence that can emerge among the parameters during training. We study MTSF optimization from a parameter-decorrelation viewpoint. Modeling stochastic optimization as a Markov chain in parameter space and leveraging its stochastic differential equation interpretation, we use the per-step transition-variance induced by gradient noise as a tractable signal for optimization-induced dependence and update uncertainty. This signal can empirically inflate during training; we theoretically show that such inflation can degrade generalization diagnostics. Motivated by this mechanism, we propose transition-variance alignment (TVA), an architecture-agnostic procedure that regulates transition-variance by smoothly gating the step size based on the mismatch between an estimated noise scale and a chosen target. TVA maintains effective transition-variance near a prescribed scale without architectural changes, incurs negligible overhead, and integrates seamlessly with diverse methods. Across real-world multivariate benchmarks, TVA consistently improves forecasting accuracy.

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and show that scalar causal scores constitute a severe information bottleneck, conflating between-state variation with within-state residual noise. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a representative architecture, we introduce a practical framework based on Individual Conditional Expectation for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors, including monotonic, thresholded, saturating, and sign-changing effects. An applied case study on democratic development further shows that function-valued analysis reveals regime-specific and asymmetric causal structure systematically missed by score-centric approaches.