ICML 2026 Papers

Recent progress in time-series forecasting has led to rapidly increasing architectural complexity, yet many reported State-of-the-Art gains are statistically fragile or misattributed. We argue that progress requires a shift from model selection to modular attribution, identifying which components truly drive performance. We propose CombinationTS, a self-contained probabilistic evaluation framework grounded in Evaluatology, the science of uncovering the effects. It decomposes forecasting models into orthogonal modules—Input Transformation, Embedding, Encoder, Decoder, and Output Transformation—and evaluates them under a shared evaluation condition space. By quantifying each component via marginalized performance ($\mu$) and stability ($\sigma$), CombinationTS enables robust attribution beyond fragile point estimates. Through large-scale paired evaluation, we uncover the Identity Paradox: once the data view (Embedding) is well-designed, a parameter-free Identity Encoder often matches or outperforms complex backbones.

We argue that long-horizon forecasting requires learning local Jacobians with explicit spectral structure, not only matching conditional means. Our method, Fern (\textbf{F}orecasting with \textbf{E}llipsoidal \textbf{R}epresentatio\textbf{N}s), invokes Brenier's theorem to directly parameterize the Jacobian as a symmetric positive semi-definite (SPD) factorization, treating forecasting as the optimal transport of probability mass from a fixed Gaussian source to data-dependent ellipsoids. This formulation avoids post-hoc eigendecomposition of dense Jacobians, enables efficient Householder-based orthogonal factors, and exposes interpretable diagnostics such as local stretching, spectral radius, and volume change. To rigorously evaluate robustness, we introduce controlled synthetic stress tests with nonstationary shocks, together with Wasserstein-based shape metrics and Effective Prediction Time. Fern demonstrates exceptional stability, outperforming baselines like DLinear and Koopa by over two orders of magnitude (up to $790\times$) on nonstationary settings where standard benchmarks fail to expose model brittleness.

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to complex and stochastic future conditions, which introduces fundamental challenges in both forecasting and evaluation. Traditional methods typically rely on historical data or factual future conditions, while overlooking counterfactual scenarios. Furthermore, many existing approaches are restricted to simple structured conditions, limiting their ability to generalize to the real-world complexities. To address these gaps, we introduce the task of counterfactual time series forecasting with textual conditions, enabling more flexible and condition-aware forecasting. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework that encompasses both factual and counterfactual settings, even in the absence of ground truth time series. Additionally, we present a novel text-attribution mechanism that distinguishes mutable from immutable factors, thereby improving forecast accuracy under sophisticated and stochastic textual conditions.

Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that achieves sampling-rate–equivariant forecasting through a unified design that pairs a state space model (SSM) encoder with a functional basis decoder (FBD). This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons without retraining. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being one of the smallest TSFMs, FlowState achieves state-of-the-art results on the widely used GIFT-Eval benchmark, while demonstrating superior adaptability to unseen sampling rates. Our detailed analyses confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt to varying input sampling rates.

Multivariate time series forecasting is critical in many real-world systems, and thus modeling cross-channel dependencies is essential. Although existing methods improve overall accuracy by enhancing representations and cross-channel interactions, it remains challenging to reliably capture inter-variable dependencies under specific conditions. We observe that dependencies in real data are often state-dependent and noisy; in such cases, dense interactions can amplify spurious correlations and lead to representation over-smoothing, which may yield unreliable predictions in certain scenarios. Motivated by this, we propose MS-FLOW, a sparse-bottleneck framework that explicitly models inter-variable interaction as capacity-limited information flow. Specifically, MS-FLOW replaces fully connected communication with selective sparse routing, retaining only a few critical dependency paths and injecting cross-variable signals under a strict communication budget, thereby suppressing redundant connections and spurious-correlation propagation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MS-FLOW learns more reliable multivariate correlations, achieving state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on 12 real-world benchmarks while producing fewer yet more reliable dependencies, shifting multivariate forecasting from “more interaction” to “more effective interaction”.

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutIS, a model-agnostic plugın that shifts the paradigm from what to learn to how much to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates, selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong omni-modal perception, their ability to forecast future events from audio-visual cues remains largely unexplored, as existing benchmarks focus mainly on retrospective understanding. To bridge this gap, we introduce FutureOmni, the first benchmark designed to evaluate omni-modal future forecasting from audio-visual environments. The evaluated models are required to perform cross-modal causal and temporal reasoning, as well as effectively leverage internal knowledge to predict future events. FutureOmni is constructed via a scalable LLM-assisted, human-in-the-loop pipeline and contains 919 videos and 1,034 multiple-choice QA pairs across 8 primary domains. Evaluations on 13 omni-modal and 7 video-only models show that current systems struggle with audio-visual future prediction, particularly in speech-heavy scenarios, with the best accuracy of 64.8% achieved by Gemini 3 Flash. To mitigate this limitation, we curate a 7K-sample instruction-tuning dataset and propose an Omni-Modal Future Forecasting (OFF) training strategy. Evaluations on FutureOmni along with standard audio-visual and video-only benchmarks show that OFF improves future forecasting performance and generalization. Code and data are available at https://github.com/OpenMOSS/FutureOmni.

Transformer architectures have established strong baselines in time series forecasting, yet they typically rely on positional encodings that assume uniform, index-based temporal progression. However, real-world systems, from shifting financial cycles to elastic biological rhythms, frequently exhibit ``time-warped'' dynamics where the effective flow of time decouples from the sampling index. In this work, we first formalize this misalignment and prove that rotary position embedding (RoPE) is mathematically incapable of representing non-affine temporal warping. To address this, we propose Symplectic Positional Embeddings (SyPE), a learnable encoding framework derived from Hamiltonian mechanics. SyPE strictly generalizes RoPE by extending the rotation group $\mathrm{SO}(2)$ to the symplectic group $\mathrm{Sp}(2,\mathbb{R})$, modulated by a novel input-dependent adaptive warp module. By allowing the attention mechanism to adaptively dilate or contract temporal coordinates end-to-end, our approach captures locally varying periodicities without requiring pre-defined warping functions. We implement this mechanism in StretchTime, a multivariate forecasting architecture that achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks, demonstrating superior robustness on datasets exhibiting non-stationary temporal dynamics.

Effective time series forecasting enables various real-world applications, benefiting from the proliferation of mobile devices. However, the volume of time series data may vary significantly across domains due to high data acquisition costs and data regulations. To maximally create value from sparse data, this study focuses on a new problem of source-free time series forecasting, aiming to adapt a pretrained model from sufficient source time series to the sparse target time series without access to the source data, enabling data protection. To achieve this, we propose TimeID, a novel source-free time series forecasting framework with a large language model (LLM) centric proxy denoising inspired by the powerful generalization capabilities of LLMs. Specifically, TimeID consists of three key components: (1) dual-branch invariant disentangled feature learning that enforces representation- and gradient-wise invariance by means of season-trend decomposition; (2) lightweight, parameter-free proxy denoising that dynamically calibrates systematic biases of LLMs; and (3) knowledge distillation that bidirectionally aligns the denoised prediction and the original target prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeID outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, improving MSE and MAE by 10.7\% and 9.3\% on average. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TimeID.

Spatial-temporal time series forecasting is challenging due to complex lead-lag dependencies, which are often ignored or inadequately modeled by existing methods. Thus, we propose LagLLM, the first LLM-empowered framework that explicitly models lead–lag dependencies by unifying data-driven dynamics modeling and knowledge-driven semantic reasoning. Specifically, LagLLM constructs a lead-lag graph by integrating learnable embeddings, spatial proximity, and prompt-guided reasoning from a frozen LLM, which can capture lead-lag dependencies informed by the underlying data structure and semantic knowledge. In addition, LagLLM introduces structural token sorting based on the graph, which can make a fine-tuned LLM explicitly perceive directional and delayed interactions. Experiments on eight real-world datasets show that LagLLM achieves the state-of-the-art performance with improved accuracy, robustness, and interpretability. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/LagLLM-2026.

Time series forecasting fundamentally involves learning probability distributions over future observations. However, existing loss functions rely on point-wise Euclidean metrics, neglecting the intrinsic geometric structure of probability distributions. This leads to suboptimal alignment between predicted and true distributions, particularly for uncertainty quantification. We propose InfoGeo Loss, a principled loss function grounded in information geometry that measures distributional discrepancies on statistical manifolds. Our approach comprises three key components: (1) a distribution parameterization module that models predictions with learnable sufficient statistics, (2) a Fisher information metric that quantifies intrinsic distributional distance, and (3) a Bregman divergence component that captures asymmetric prediction errors. We further introduce a natural gradient weighting strategy for efficient optimization on statistical manifolds. Theoretically, we prove statistical consistency and establish convergence guarantees. Extensive experiments on seven datasets with five architectures show that InfoGeo Loss consistently outperforms existing losses, achieving average improvements of 6.8% in MSE and 5.3% in MAE.