ICML 2026 Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) that continue improving at test-time budgets far beyond their training budgets can solve harder problems by leveraging additional inference compute: we refer to this property as extrapolation. Standard on-policy RL operates on fixed problem distributions and training budgets, giving rise to a distribution shift between train and test that limits the resulting model's extrapolation capabilities. To address this, we introduce RC, an iterative decoding algorithm replacing standard autoregressive decoding that enables models to extrapolate to lengths an order of magnitude longer than those seen during training. RC exploits the asymmetry between summarization and generation capabilities present in LLMs to construct a decoding process that improves consistently over iterations. Its effectiveness can be further increased through training, which amplifies the model’s ability to perform summary-conditioned reasoning while avoiding the challenges of long-horizon RL. Empirically, training a 4B instruction-following model with RC using a 16k-token training budget improves performance on HMMT 2025 from 40% to 70% when evaluated with a 512k-token test budget, substantially surpassing comparably sized LLMs.

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, large language model (LLM)- based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) substantially outperform their base LLM counterparts on challenging reasoning benchmarks, yet it remains poorly understood where base models go wrong during token-by-token generation and how to narrow this gap efficiently. We study the base–reasoning gap by quantifying token-level distributional disagreement between a base model and a stronger reasoning model using likelihood-based divergences. Across benchmarks, we find that the reasoning advantage is highly sparse and concentrates on a small set of early, planning-related decision tokens. For instance, on Qwen3-0.6B, only $\sim$8\% of generated tokens account for the salient disagreement; these tokens concentrate early in the response, are strongly enriched in planning-related decisions ($17\times$), and coincide with high base-model uncertainty—suggesting that base models fail mainly at early planning points that steer the subsequent reasoning trajectory. Building on these findings, we propose disagreement-guided token intervention, a simple inference-time delegation scheme that performs a one-token takeover by the reasoning model only at high-disagreement positions and immediately switches back to the base model. With a small intervention budget, this sparse delegation substantially recovers and can even surpass the performance of a same-size reasoning model on challenging reasoning tasks. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/AlphaLab-USTC/RRTokenIntervention}.

E-commerce short videos represent a high-revenue segment of the online video industry characterized by a goal-driven format and dense multi-modal signals. Current models often struggle with these videos because existing benchmarks focus primarily on general-purpose tasks and neglect the reasoning of commercial intent. In this work, we first propose a **multi-modal information density assessment framework** to quantify the complexity of this domain. Our evaluation reveals that e-commerce content exhibits substantially higher density across visual, audio, and textual modalities compared to mainstream datasets, establishing a more challenging frontier for video understanding. To address this gap, we introduce **E-commerce Video Ads Benchmark**, which is the first benchmark specifically designed for e-commerce short video understanding. We curated 3,961 high-quality videos from Taobao covering a wide range of product categories and used a multi-agent system to generate 19,785 open-ended Q\&A pairs. These questions are organized into Perception and Cognition and Reasoning, which consist of five distinct tasks. Finally, we develop **E-VAds-R1**, an RL-based reasoning model featuring a multi-grained reward design called **MG-GRPO**. This strategy provides smooth guidance for early exploration while creating a non-linear incentive for expert-level precision. Experimental results demonstrate that E-VAds-R1 achieves a 109.2\% performance gain in commercial intent reasoning with only a few hundred training samples. Data is available at https://github.com/TaobaoTmall-AlgorithmProducts/E-VAds_Benchmark.

Real-world requests to AI agents are fundamentally underspecified. Natural human communication relies on shared context and unstated constraints that speakers expect listeners to infer. Current agentic benchmarks test explicit instruction-following but fail to evaluate whether agents can reason about implicit requirements spanning accessibility needs, privacy boundaries, catastrophic risks, and contextual constraints. We present **Implicit Intelligence**, an evaluation framework testing whether AI agents can move beyond prompt-following to become genuine goal-fulfillers, paired with **Agent-as-a-World (AaW)**, a harness where interactive worlds are defined in human-readable YAML files and simulated by language models. Our scenarios feature apparent simplicity in user requests, hidden complexity in correct solutions, and discoverability of constraints through environmental exploration. Evaluating 16 frontier and open-weight models across 205 scenarios, we find that even the best-performing model achieves only 48.3% scenario pass rate, revealing substantial room for improvement in bridging the gap between literal instruction-following and human-like contextual reasoning.

We aim to improve the reasoning capabilities of diffusion language models (DLMs). While SFT is a popular post-training recipe for autoregressive models, its use in DLMs faces challenges and can even hurt performance, though the underlying causes remain understudied. Our analysis reveals that vanilla SFT overlooks learnability, namely, *what* and *when* tokens are learned. Specifically, rare tokens are difficult to learn when most of the input is masked, whereas it is straightforward and thus of little value to learn common tokens when most of the input is unmasked. Motivated by our analysis, we propose LIFT, an efficient SFT-based post-training algorithm for DLMs. LIFT learns easy tokens when most of the input is masked and hard tokens when more context is available, thereby aligning training with the information available at different diffusion time steps. Our results show that LIFT outperforms existing SFT baselines across six reasoning benchmarks, achieving up to a 3x relative gain on AIME’24 and AIME’25. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/divelab/LIFT.

Inference time optimization techniques, such as repeated sampling, have significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the critical role of model uncertainty remains largely underexplored in these optimization strategies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of confidence along reasoning trajectories and for first time reveal a surprising and unique pattern: correct answer traces tend to exhibit confidence improvement over time (positive confidence gain), while incorrect traces show attenuated or declining confidence as reasoning proceeds. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence Dynamic Gain (CDG) based voting, which incorporates how the confidence trajectory of the response evolves along the reasoning chain. Experiments across four open-source architectures (DeepSeek-R1, gpt-oss, Gemma-3, Qwen-QwQ) on the AIME24/25, HMMT25, and BRUMO25 benchmarks demonstrate that CDG yields a significant performance boost over baselines. These results demonstrate that our method provides a robust discriminative signal for improving answer selection in LLM reasoning. We also provide theoretical insights for this phenomenon. Code will be released at https://github.com/Accenture/CDG.git.

Prompt learning for vision-language models (VLMs) often suffers from performance degradation when adapting to downstream tasks with noisy labels. Existing methods that rely on filtering or reconstructing supervision can propagate errors, leading to sharp performance drops. We observe that pre-trained embeddings are resilient to label noise, offering stable references despite limited adaptation. Based on this insight, we propose Evidence-Prompt, a framework built on the evidence prior that enhances prompt learning by integrating stable pre-trained knowledge. We treat prompt learning as a Bayesian reasoning task, where credibility is derived from both supervision-agnostic and supervision-conditioned evidence. This framework effectively combines these sources to infer robust training targets under noisy conditions, enabling stable learning even with high noise levels. Extensive experiments on eight benchmarks with both synthetic and real-world noisy labels demonstrate that our method flattens the accuracy–noise curve and consistently outperforms SOTA methods, with notable gains on OxfordPets dataset at a 75\% noise rate (+36.6\% under Asym and +14.4\% under Sym). Additionally, transferability experiments reveal that incorporating our evidence prior into other SOTA methods results in accuracy improvements ranging from 2.6\% to 15.66\%.

Pre-trained foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success in many domains, enabling a unified backbone to generalize across diverse downstream tasks. However, extending this paradigm to graph learning remains challenging due to the intrinsic mismatch between graph data and fixed architectural designs. In this work, we show that this limitation can be overcome via recurrent graph models. To achieve this, we conduct a systematic theoretical analysis, rigorously deriving step dependence as a necessary and sufficient condition for an adaptively convergent recurrent process. Building on this foundation, we propose AdaR, an Adaptive Recurrent graph model, empowering flexible test-time computing on various downstream tasks without changing model parameters. To enable adaptive inference, AdaR explicitly encodes normalized step information and representation–target relations into the recurrent updates. To ensure convergence of the recurrent process, AdaR employs gradient-based supervision signals that guide representation updates throughout the recurrence. Empirical results demonstrate that AdaR consistently outperforms strong baselines in both inductive and transductive settings.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) increasingly rely on reasoning traces with complex internal structures. However, existing work lacks a unified answer to three fundamental questions: (1) what defines high-quality reasoning, (2) how to reliably evaluate long, implicitly structured reasoning traces, and (3) how to use such evaluation signals for reasoning optimization. To address these challenges, we provide a unified perspective. (1) We introduce the ME$^2$ principle to characterize reasoning quality along macro- and micro-level concerning efficiency and effectiveness. (2) Built on this principle, we model reasoning traces as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and develop a DAG-based pairwise evaluation method, capturing complex reasoning structures. (3) Based on this method, we construct the TRM-Preference dataset and train a Thinking Reward Model (TRM) to evaluate reasoning quality at scale. Experiments show that thinking rewards serve as an effective optimization signal. At test time, selecting better reasoning leads to better outcomes (up to 19.3\% gain), and during RL training, thinking rewards enhance reasoning and performance (up to 3.9\% gain) across diverse tasks. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Simplified-Reasoning/TRM.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities over internalized knowledge. However, current research overlooks contextual reasoning, the ability to reason based on the relevant information present in the context. To investigate this issue, we construct the Visual Contextual Reasoning Benchmark (ContextReasonV-Bench), and our analysis reveals two predominant failure modes: *context neglect*, where models rely on pre-trained knowledge instead of contextual information, and *superficial pattern matching*, where models exploit shallow correlations rather than genuine patterns. To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage approach that progressively establishes and reinforces contextual pattern acquisition. The first stage establishes an "analyze-then-solve" reasoning paradigm through supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We then employ a context-aware reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates context-aware reward modeling with hierarchical advantage estimation to encourage the model to identify genuine contextual patterns. This approach yields Context-Aware Reasoner (CAR), a model that achieves 38.14\% accuracy on ContextReasonV-Bench, a 22.09\% improvement over the base model, and generalizes effectively to unseen tasks.

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) with multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is an emerging area, yet a persistent challenge remains: MLLMs rely on coarse time-series heuristics but struggle with multi-dimensional, detailed reasoning, which is vital for understanding complex time-series data. We present AnomSeer to address this by reinforcing the model to ground its reasoning in precise, structural details of time series, unifying anomaly classification, localization, and explanation. At its core, an expert chain-of-thought trace is generated to provide verifiable, fine-grained reasoning from classical analyses (e.g., statistical measures, frequency transforms). Building on this, we propose a novel time-series grounded policy optimization (TimerPO) that incorporates two additional components beyond standard reinforcement learning: a time-series grounded advantage based on optimal transport and an orthogonal projection to ensure this auxiliary granular signal does not interfere with the primary detection objective. Across diverse anomaly scenarios, AnomSeer, with Qwen2.5-VL-3B/7B-Instruct, outperforms larger commercial baselines in classification and localization accuracy, particularly on point- and frequency-driven exceptions. Moreover, it produces plausible reasoning traces that support its conclusions.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly used for real-world tasks involving multi-step reasoning and long-form generation, where reliability requires grounding model outputs in heterogeneous input sources and verifying individual factual claims. However, existing multimodal grounding benchmarks and evaluation methods focus on simplified, observation-based scenarios or limited modalities and fail to assess attribution in complex multimodal reasoning. We introduce MuRGAt (Multimodal Reasoning with Grounded Attribution), a benchmark for evaluating fact-level multimodal attribution in settings that require reasoning beyond direct observation. Given inputs spanning video, audio, and other modalities, MuRGAt requires models to generate answers with explicit reasoning and precise citations, where each citation specifies both modality and temporal segments. To enable reliable assessment, we introduce an automatic evaluation framework that strongly correlates with human judgments. Benchmarking with human and automated scores reveals that even strong MLLMs frequently hallucinate citations despite correct reasoning. Moreover, we observe a key trade-off: increasing reasoning depth or enforcing structured grounding often degrades accuracy, highlighting a significant gap between internal reasoning and verifiable attribution.

VideoQA models can be accurate yet often fail to align answers with the correct video segments (the \emph{grounding gap}). We introduce \textbf{LINGUA} (\textbf{L}anguage-based \textbf{IN}ference for \textbf{G}rounded Video \textbf{U}nderstanding \textbf{A}gent), a memory-based agent that performs grounded VideoQA by reasoning in an explicit \emph{linguistic belief state}. LINGUA uses five mechanisms: (1) event-driven perception (retains 8--12\% of frames while preserving 94\% of question-relevant events); (2) typed memory for episodic narratives, semantic affordances, and procedural scripts; (3) Belief-Action-Verification loops with postcondition and temporal checks; (4) meta reflection with contrastive refinement; and (5) Bayesian reliability tracking for continual learning without gradient updates. Built with Gemma3-4B (Ollama, 4-bit), LINGUA outperforms strong baselines on five VideoQA benchmarks, reaching 82.4\% on NExT-QA and 42.3\% Acc@GQA on NExT-GQA (answer + IoU$\geq$0.5 temporal localization), while running 2.6$\times$ faster than dense-frame methods. In continual learning over 100 videos, accuracy rises from 45.2\% (first 10) to 61.8\% (last 10) without catastrophic forgetting, indicating online adaptation via memory refinement.

Understanding reasoning in large language models is complicated by evaluations that conflate multiple reasoning types. We isolate analogical reasoning, where a model transfers an attribute between entities that share known properties, and study when such transfer can emerge from training. To make the problem analytically tractable, we study a minimal transformer-style abstraction that isolates how learned representations support analogical reasoning. Within this setting, we prove three key results. First, joint training on similarity and attribution premises enables analogical reasoning through aligned representations. Second, sequential training succeeds only when similarity structure is learned before specific attributes, revealing a curriculum asymmetry. Third, in our stylized setting, two-hop reasoning $(a \to b, b \to c \Rightarrow a \to c)$ can be viewed as analogical reasoning with identity bridges $(b=b)$, which appear explicitly in training data. Together, these results reveal a unified mechanism: entities with shared properties become aligned in representation space, enabling property transfer through feature resemblance. Experiments with architectures up to 8B parameters show qualitative agreement with the theory and suggest that representational geometry plays an important role in analogical reasoning beyond the stylized model.

Supervised fine-tuning with expert demonstrations often produces models that imitate outputs without internalizing the reasoning processes needed for robust generalization. While critique-based approaches show promise, training models to generate critiques directly, such as Critique Fine-Tuning (CFT), can lead to output-format drift and degradation of general capabilities. We propose $\textbf{C}$ritique-$\textbf{G}$uided $\textbf{D}$istillation (CGD), a training framework that decouples critique consumption from critique generation. During fine-tuning, the student is trained to refine flawed responses conditioned on teacher critiques. CGD treats critiques as a $\textit{training-time-only}$ supervision signal, encouraging internalization of error-aware reasoning: critiques guide learning but are absent at inference. Across five model families, CGD consistently outperforms CFT and standard distillation on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, yielding 7\% average improvements and gains of up to +15.0\% on AMC23 and +12.2\% on MATH-500. On challenging competition problems such as AIME24 and AIME25, CGD achieves substantially higher Pass@1 and stronger performance at low Pass@k, indicating improved reasoning quality per sample. Importantly, CGD preserves general instruction-following capabilities where CFT degrades significantly ($-$21.3\% on IFEval). These results position CGD as a practical and compute-efficient intermediate training paradigm for reasoning-centric tasks without introducing architectural inference-time overhead.

Current coding benchmarks often overstate Large Language Model (LLM) capabilities due to static paradigms and data contamination, allowing models to exploit statistical shortcuts rather than genuine reasoning. To address this, we introduce UniCode, a generative evaluation framework that systematically probes LLM reasoning boundaries via: (1) multi-dimensional augmentation operators to create diverse algorithmic variants; (2) a scalable test generation pipeline achieving 94.5\% correctness without human-written solutions; and (3) fine-grained diagnostic metrics for rich error signals. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals a significant 31.2\% performance collapse. Critically, we observe a high variance across different reasoning axes, revealing a profound fragility under structural shifts despite surface-level robustness. Furthermore, we identify a ``seed-problem regression," where models fail by defaulting to memorized seed logic and inefficient complexities. Our evaluation code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/grandsmile/UniCode}.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has become a powerful framework for improving complex problem-solving capabilities in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). However, the verbose nature of textual reasoning introduces significant inefficiencies. In this work, we propose**Heima** (as hidden llama), an effective CoT compression framework that condenses lengthy CoTs into a small set of abstract thinking tokens, preserving essential reasoning while removing redundancy. We then conduct a theoretical analysis from an information-theoretic perspective, quantifying the information gap induced by compression, showing that reasoning capability is preserved when non-trivial mutual information is retained. To further explore and quantify this information gap, we design the adaptive interpreter that maps thinking tokens back to variable-length textual sequences, thereby reconstructing the reasoning process. Experiments across diverse reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that Heima improves reasoning efficiency, while maintaining or even achieving better zero-shot accuracy. Moreover, the interpreter reconstructs coherent reasoning progresses from compressed thinking tokens, revealing that the information gap is minimal and validating the effectiveness of the proposed framework. This work paves the way for scalable latent reasoning models and advances our understanding of efficient reasoning processes in large models. Code: https://github.com/shawnricecake/Heima

Current Large Language Models have achieved Olympiad-level logic, yet Vision-Language Models paradoxically falter on elementary spatial tasks like block counting. This capability mismatch reveals a critical "spatial intelligence gap," where models fail to construct coherent 3D mental representations from 2D observations. We uncover this gap via diagnostic analyses showing the bottleneck is a missing view-consistent spatial interface rather than insufficient visual features or weak reasoning. To bridge this, we introduce **3ViewSense**, a framework that grounds spatial reasoning in Orthographic Views. Drawing on engineering cognition, we propose a "Simulate-and-Reason" mechanism that decomposes complex scenes into canonical orthographic projections to resolve geometric ambiguities. By aligning egocentric perceptions with these allocentric references, our method facilitates explicit mental rotation and reconstruction. Empirical results on spatial reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing baselines, with consistent gains on occlusion-heavy counting and view-consistent spatial reasoning. The framework also improves the stability and consistency of spatial descriptions, offering a scalable path toward stronger spatial intelligence in multimodal systems.