ICML 2026 Papers

Neural Processes (NPs), and specifically Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), have demonstrated remarkable performance across tasks ranging from spatiotemporal forecasting to tabular data modelling. However, many of these applications are inherently sequential, involving continuous data streams such as real-time sensor readings or database updates. In such settings, models should support cheap, incremental updates rather than recomputing internal representations from scratch for every new observation—a capability existing TNP variants lack. Drawing inspiration from Large Language Models, we introduce the Incremental TNP ($\texttt{incTNP}$). By leveraging causal masking, Key-Value (KV) caching, and a data-efficient autoregressive training strategy, $\texttt{incTNP}$ matches the predictive performance of standard TNPs while reducing the computational cost of updates from quadratic to linear time complexity. We empirically evaluate our model on a range of synthetic and real-world tasks, including tabular regression and temperature prediction. Our results show that, surprisingly, $\texttt{incTNP}$ delivers performance comparable to—or better than—non-causal TNPs while unlocking orders-of-magnitude speedups for sequential inference. Finally, we assess the consistency of the model's updates---by adapting a metric of "implicit Bayesianness", we show that under a one-at-a-time streaming protocol, $\texttt{incTNP}$ retains a prediction rule as implicitly Bayesian as standard non-causal TNPs, demonstrating that $\texttt{incTNP}$ achieves the computational benefits of causal masking without sacrificing the consistency required for streaming inference.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are a flexible family of amortized samplers trained to generate discrete and compositional objects with probability proportional to a reward function. To this end, they learn a policy function over an intractably large state graph by minimizing a stochastic objective over sampled trajectories. However, learning efficiency is constrained by the model’s ability to rapidly explore diverse high-probability regions during training. To mitigate this issue, recent works have focused on incentivizing the exploration of unvisited and valuable states via curiosity-driven search and self-supervised random network distillation, which tend to waste samples on already well-approximated regions of the state space. In this context, we propose *Adaptive Complementary Exploration* (ACE), a principled algorithm for the effective exploration of novel and high-probability regions when learning GFlowNets. To achieve this, ACE introduces an *exploration* GFlowNet explicitly trained to search for high-reward states in regions underexplored by the *canonical* GFlowNet, which learns to sample from the target distribution. Through extensive experiments, we show that ACE consistently and significantly improves upon prior work in terms of approximation accuracy to the target distribution and discovery rate of diverse high-reward states.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) enable exact and tractable inference but employ data independent mixture weights that limit their ability to capture local geometry of the data manifold. We propose Voronoi tessellations (VT) as a natural way to incorporate geometric structure directly into the sum nodes of a PC. However, naïvely introducing such structure breaks tractability. We formalize this incompatibility and develop two complementary solutions: (1) an approximate inference framework that provides guaranteed lower and upper bounds for inference, and (2) a structural condition for VT under which exact tractable inference is recovered. Finally, we introduce a differentiable relaxation for VT that enables gradient-based learning and empirically validate the resulting approach on standard density estimation tasks.

Transportation on graphs is a fundamental challenge across many domains, where decisions must respect topological and operational constraints. Despite the need for actionable policies, existing graph-transport methods lack this expressivity. They rely on restrictive assumptions, fail to generalize across sparse topologies, and scale poorly with graph size and time horizon. To address these issues, we introduce Generalized Schrödinger Bridge on Graphs (GSBoG), a novel scalable data-driven framework for learning executable controlled continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) policies on arbitrary graphs under state cost augmented dynamics. Notably, GSBoG learns trajectory-level policies, avoiding dense global solvers and thereby enhancing scalability. This is achieved via a likelihood optimization approach, satisfying the endpoint marginals, while simultaneously optimizing intermediate behavior under state-dependent running costs. Extensive experimentation on challenging real-world graph topologies shows that GSBoG reliably learns accurate, topology-respecting policies while optimizing application-specific intermediate state costs, highlighting its broad applicability and paving new avenues for cost-aware dynamical transport on general graphs.

Existing online change-point detection (CPD) methods rely on fixed-dimensional Euclidean summaries, implicitly assuming that distributional changes are well captured by moment-based or feature-based representations. They can obscure important changes in distributional shape or geometry. We propose an intrinsic distribution-valued CPD framework that treats streaming batch data as a stochastic process on the 2-Wasserstein space. Our method detects changes in the law of this process by mapping each empirical distribution to a tangent space relative to a pre-change Fréchet barycenter, yielding a reference-centered local linearization of 2-Wasserstein space. This representation enables sequential detectors by adapting classical multivariate monitoring statistics to tangent fields. We provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate, via synthetic and real-world experiments, that our approach detects complex distributional shifts with reduced detection delay at matched $\mathrm{ARL}_0$ compared with moments-based and model-free baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/yyzeng43/IDD-icml.

We present a principled framework for confidence estimation in computed tomography (CT) reconstruction. Based on the sequential likelihood mixing framework (Kirschner et al., 2025), we establish confidence regions with theoretical coverage guarantees for deep-learning-based CT reconstructions. We consider a realistic forward model following the Beer-Lambert law, i.e., a log-linear forward model with Poisson noise, closely reflecting clinical and scientific imaging conditions. The framework is general and applies to both classical reconstruction algorithms and deep learning methods alike, including U-Nets, U-Net ensembles, and generative Diffusion models. Empirically, we demonstrate that deep reconstruction methods yield substantially tighter confidence regions than classical reconstructions, without sacrificing theoretical coverage guarantees. Our approach allows the detection of hallucinations in reconstructed images and provides interpretable visualizations of confidence regions. This establishes deep models not only as powerful estimators, but also as reliable tools for uncertainty-aware medical imaging.

The probabilistic bisection algorithm (PBA) extends the classical binary search to settings with noisy responses, and is a foundational algorithm commonly used in basic problems such as root-finding. Despite its strong empirical success, its theoretical property, particularly the convergence rate, remains unclear. This paper establishes that PBA converges at a geometric rate, providing a rigorous justification for its empirical efficiency. Notably, this rate is optimal in the sense that it matches the performance of classical binary search under noiseless responses. The core of our analysis lies in directly characterizing the dynamics of PBA queries, which had not been examined in the prior literature. We show that the queries oscillate around the truth but steadily draw closer, thus leading to an estimator that rapidly concentrates on the truth. Beyond resolving the long-standing question of PBA’s convergence, our developed techniques offer new tools for analyzing PBA's dynamics, which may be of independent interest.

Obtaining high-quality labeled datasets is often costly, requiring either human annotation or expensive experiments. In theory, powerful pre-trained AI models provide an opportunity to automatically label datasets and save costs. Unfortunately, these models come with no guarantees on their accuracy, making wholesale replacement of manual labeling impractical. In this work, we propose a method for leveraging pre-trained AI models to curate cost-effective and high-quality datasets. In particular, our approach results in probably approximately correct labels: with high probability, the overall labeling error is small. Our method is nonasymptotically valid under minimal assumptions on the dataset or the AI model being studied, and thus enables rigorous yet efficient dataset curation using modern AI models. We demonstrate the benefits of the methodology through text annotation with large language models, image labeling with pre-trained vision models, and protein folding analysis with AlphaFold.

Although conformal prediction provides robust marginal coverage guarantees, achieving reliable conditional coverage for specific inputs remains challenging. While exact distribution-free conditional coverage is impossible with finite samples, recent work has focused on improving the conditional coverage of standard conformal procedures. Distinct from approaches that target relaxed notions of conditional coverage, we directly target the mean squared error of conditional coverage by refining the quantile regression components that underpin many conformal methods. Leveraging a Taylor expansion, we derive a sharp surrogate objective for quantile regression: a density-weighted pinball loss, where the weights are given by the conditional density of the nonconformity score evaluated at the true quantile. We propose a three-headed quantile network that estimates these weights via finite differences using auxiliary quantile levels at $1-\alpha \pm \delta$, subsequently fine-tuning the central quantile by optimizing the weighted loss. We provide a theoretical analysis with exact non-asymptotic guarantees characterizing the resulting excess risk. Extensive experiments on diverse high-dimensional real-world datasets demonstrate remarkable improvements in conditional coverage performance. We release the code at \url{https://github.com/Cqyiiii/Colorful-Pinball-Conformal-Prediction-CPCP}.

Learning-based methods for sampling from the Gibbs distribution in finite-dimensional spaces have progressed quickly, yet theory and algorithmic design for infinite-dimensional function spaces remain limited. This gap persists despite their strong potential for sampling the paths of conditional diffusion processes, enabling efficient simulation of trajectories of diffusion processes that respect rare events or boundary constraints. In this work, we present the adjoint sampler for infinite-dimensional function spaces, a stochastic optimal control-based diffusion sampler that operates in function space and targets Gibbs-type distributions on infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces. Our Functional Adjoint Sampler (FAS) generalizes Adjoint Sampling (Havens et al., 2025) to Hilbert spaces based on a SOC theory called stochastic maximum principle, yielding a simple and scalable matching-type objective for a functional representation. We show that FAS achieves superior transition path sampling performance across synthetic potential and real molecular systems, including Alanine Dipeptide and Chignolin.

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a conformal prediction set that is uniformly valid across multiple, heterogeneous distributions, in the sense that no matter which distribution the test point is from, the coverage of the prediction set is guaranteed to exceed a pre-specified level. We first propose a max-p aggregation scheme that delivers finite-sample, multi-distribution coverage given any conformity scores associated with each distribution. Upon studying several efficiency optimization programs subject to uniform coverage, we prove the optimality and tightness of our aggregation scheme, and propose a general algorithm to learn conformity scores that lead to efficient prediction sets after the aggregation under standard conditions. We discuss how our framework relates to group-wise distributionally robust optimization, sub-population shift, fairness, and multi-source learning. In synthetic and real-data experiments, our method delivers valid worst-case coverage across multiple distributions while greatly reducing the set size compared with naively applying max-p aggregation to single-source conformity scores, and can be comparable in size to single-source prediction sets with popular, standard conformity scores.

Modeling unknown latent functions from finite, irregularly sampled measurements is a recurring challenge across science and engineering. Neural processes (NPs), a family of probabilistic functional models, are promising solutions---especially when endowed with domain-specific symmetries like translation equivariance, which improve sample efficiency and generalization. Yet existing translation-equivariant NPs face two limitations: (i) they stack generic components with non-linearities, obscuring the induced function class and limiting interpretability; and (ii) convolutional designs rely on kernels with local receptive fields and require dense uniform input grids, while attention-based methods avoid these issues but scale quadratically with the number of observations. We address both with two contributions. First, using the Volterra expansion, we characterize continuous translation-equivariant operators as sums of higher-order convolutions, yielding analytical transparency while admitting efficient approximation by first-order convolutions. Second, we introduce set Fourier convolutions (SFConvs), a frequency-domain parameterization that operates directly on irregularly sampled points, achieves approximately global receptive fields, and scales linearly in the number of observations. Building on these ideas, we propose two conditional NPs (CNPs): SFConvCNPs, which stack SFConv blocks with non-linearities, and SFVConvCNPs, which integrate the Volterra formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our methods' efficacy against state-of-the-art baselines.

AI agents increasingly execute procedural workflows as sequential action traces, which obscures latent concurrency and induces repeated step-by-step reasoning. We introduce BPOP, a Bayesian framework that infers a latent dependency partial order from noisy linearized traces. BPOP models traces as stochastic linear extensions of an underlying graph and performs efficient MCMC inference via a tractable frontier-softmax likelihood that avoids \#P-hard marginalization over linear extensions. We evaluate on our open-sourced Cloud-IaC-6, a suite of cloud provisioning tasks with heterogeneous LLM-generated traces, and WFCommons scientific workflows. BPOP recovers dependency structure more accurately than trace-only and process-mining baselines, and the inferred graphs support a compiled executor that prunes irrelevant context, yielding substantial reductions in token usage and execution time.

Despite the ubiquity of multiway data across scientific domains, there are few performant and user-friendly methods that fit non-standard nonnegative tensor factorization models tailored to the data at-hand. Researchers may use gradient-based automatic differentiation, which often struggles under nonnegative constraints, choose between a limited set of methods with mature implementations, or implement their own model from scratch. As an alternative, we introduce NNEinFact, an einsum-based multiplicative update algorithm that fits any nonnegative tensor factorization expressible as a tensor contraction by minimizing one of many user-specified loss functions, including the $(\alpha,\beta)$-divergence. To use NNEinFact, the researcher specifies their model with a string. NNEinFact converges to a stationary point of the loss, supports missing data, and fits to tensors with hundreds of millions of entries in seconds. Empirically, NNEinFact fits custom models which outperform standard ones in prediction tasks on real-world tensor data by over 37% and attains less than half the test loss of gradient-based methods while converging up to 90 times faster. Software is publicly available at github.com/jhood3/einfact.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

Generative Flow Networks (GFNs) offer a powerful paradigm for diverse sampling, yet they often exhibit instability and poor convergence when applied to stochastic or sparse-reward environments. To mitigate the high variance inherent in these settings, we propose a fundamental re-framing of the GFlowNet training objective within the frequency domain. We present \textbf{Spectral Time-Dependent GFlowNets (ST-GFNs)}, a framework that leverages Fourier analysis to enforce smoothness and stability in learned policies. Our theoretical analysis proves that our proposed spectral loss is mathematically equivalent to regularized value iteration, acting as a principled low-pass filter that separates signal from noise. Furthermore, we tackle the challenge of exploration in sparse landscapes by introducing a novel autocorrelated intrinsic reward derived from the Wiener-Khinchin theorem. Through extensive experiments ranging from adversarial games and noisy sequence generation to high-dimensional single-cell perturbation modelling, we demonstrate that ST-GFNs significantly outperform existing baselines in terms of robustness, sample efficiency, and mode discovery.

Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.

Programming adaptive behaviors at the cellular level is a long-standing goal that raises the question of how probabilistic computation can be implemented in biochemical systems. Chemical reaction networks (CRNs) provide such a substrate and have been shown to realize probabilistic models, including hidden Markov models and factor graphs, with dynamics reproducing Bayesian inference and belief propagation. However, encoding these algorithms typically requires prohibitively large reaction networks, and classical CRN reduction techniques do not directly apply. By recovering the factor graph structure encoded in Napp--Adams-compiled CRNs, we transport recent factor-graph reduction results to their chemical implementations, obtaining significantly smaller CRNs while preserving the belief-propagation fixed points on surviving variables.

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. RKHS-based frameworks—while promising for complex covariate shifts—suffer from prohibitive computational costs. To guarantee conditional validity under such shifts while ensuring feasibility, we build upon the framework of Gibbs et al. (2025) by introducing a stable and efficient algorithm that computes the full solution path of the regularized RKHS conformal optimization problem, at essentially the same cost as a single kernel quantile fit. Our approach provides simultaneous hyperparameter tuning which provides smoothness control and data-adaptive calibration. To extend the method to high-dimensional settings, we further integrate our approach with low-rank latent embeddings that capture conditional validity in a data-driven latent space. Empirically, our method provides reliable conditional coverage across a variety of modern black-box predictors, improving the interval length of Gibbs et al. (2025) by 30%, while achieving a 40-fold speedup.