ICML 2026 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

6,341papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Spotlight
    5368.5%
  • Poster
    5,80591.5%

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InfoAtlas: A Foundation Model for Zero-Shot Statistical Dependence Estimate

Zhengyang Hu, Yanzhi Chen, Hanxiang Ren, Qunsong Zeng, Youyi Zheng, Adrian Weller, Kaibin Huang, Yanchao Yang

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Measuring statistical dependency between high-dimensional random variables is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Neural mutual information (MI) estimators offer a promising avenue, but they typically require costly iterative optimization for each new dataset, making them impractical for real-time applications. We present InfoAtlas, a foundation model-like architecture that eliminates this bottleneck by directly inferring MI in a single forward pass. Pretrained on large-scale synthetic data with rich dependence patterns, InfoAtlas learns to identify diverse dependence structures and predict MI directly from the dataset. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that InfoAtlas matches state-of-the-art neural estimators in accuracy while achieving 100× speedup, can flexibly handle varying dimensions and sample sizes through a single unified model, and generalizes effectively to complex, real-world scenarios. By reformulating MI estimation as an inference task, InfoAtlas establishes a foundation for real-time dependency analysis.

Poster
Verifying Meta-Awareness via Predictive Rewards in Reasoning Models

Yoonjeon Kim, Doohyuk Jang, Eunho Yang

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Recent research on reasoning models explores the meta-awareness of language models, including their ability to determine optimal thinking duration, recognize knowledge boundaries, and structure concept-level thinking. While current large reasoning models depend solely on answer-based verification, we show that adding meta-awareness objectives leads to significant performance gains over models without such meta-knowledge. **MAPR** utilizes a self-generated task of predicting rollout statistics - specifically length, pass-rate, and concepts used - allowing for verification against the actual statistics. Furthermore, by leveraging this self-predictive capability, the model can regulate its reasoning behavior by i) filtering out trivial or unsolvable prompts, ii) reducing lengthy generations that tend to be incorrect, and iii) generating hints relevant to the problem. The results are inspiring: **MAPR** yields significant improvements in both accuracy and training efficiency on various reasoning benchmarks. More specifically, our method can speed up GRPO training by over 1.28$\times$ to reach the same performance, and achieve 83.18\% gain in accuracy on AIME25, and a 13.04\% average gain over six mathematics benchmarks.

Poster
Recurrent Structural Policy Gradient for Partially Observable Mean Field Games

Clarisse Wibault, Johannes Forkel, Sebastian Rene Towers, Tiphaine Wibault, Juan Agustin Duque, George Whittle, Andreas Schaab, Yucheng Yang, Chiyuan Wang, Michael A Osborne, Benjamin Moll, Jakob Nicolaus Foerster

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Mean Field Games (MFGs) provide a principled framework for modelling interactions in large population systems. However, algorithmic progress has been limited since model-free methods are high variance and exact methods scale poorly. Recent Hybrid Structural Methods (HSMs) reduce variance while maintaining tractability by leveraging low-dimensional individual state and action spaces and known transition dynamics to compute the exact expected return conditioned on Monte Carlo rollouts of common noise. However, HSMs have not been extended to partially observable settings. We propose *Recurrent Structural Policy Gradient* (RSPG), the first history-aware HSM for MFGs with public partial information. RSPG achieves an order-of-magnitude faster convergence than model-free RL methods while learning history-aware behaviour, unlike current HSMs. To facilitate research into MFGs, we also introduce MFAX, our JAX-based framework for MFGs that supports both analytic and sample-based mean-field updates.

Spotlight
Model Merging Scaling Laws in Large Language Models

Yuanyi Wang, Yanggan Gu, Yiming Zhang, Qi Zhou, Zhaoyi Yan, Congkai Xie, Xinyao Wang, Jianbo Yuan, Hongxia Yang

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We study empirical scaling laws for language model merging measured by cross-entropy. Despite its wide practical use, merging lacks a quantitative rule that predicts returns as we add experts or scale the model size. We identify a compact power law that links model size and expert number: the size-dependent floor decreases with model capacity, while the merging tail exhibits clear diminishing returns in the number of experts. The law holds in-domain and cross-domain, tightly fits measured curves across diverse architectures and methods (Average, TA, TIES, DARE), and explains two robust regularities: most gains arrive early, and variability shrinks as more experts are included. Building on this, we present a simple theory that explains why gains fall roughly as \(1/k\) and links the floor and tail to properties of the base model and the diversity across domains. This law enables \emph{predictive planning}: estimate how many experts are needed to reach a target loss, decide when to stop adding experts, and trade off scaling the base model versus adding experts under a fixed budget—turning merging from heuristic practice into a computationally efficient, planable alternative to multitask training. This suggests a scaling principle for distributed generative AI: predictable gains can be achieved by composing specialists, offering a complementary path toward AGI-level systems.

Poster
Distillation Models are Good Samplers for Diffusion Reinforcement Learning

Zunxu Liu, Aiqiu Wu, Zhaofan Qiu, Yingwei Pan, Ting Yao, Tao Mei

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We present DMSampler, a framework that accelerates online diffusion reinforcement learning by replacing expensive training-time policy rollouts with a co-evolving few-step distilled sampler. Instead of repeatedly sampling the policy model for roughly 50 denoising steps, DMSampler generates reward-evaluation samples in only 4--8 steps while periodically re-distilling the sampler from the updated policy, yielding an order-of-magnitude reduction in rollout cost. The framework alternates between two stages: an RL phase that optimizes the policy using hybrid samples from the old policy and distilled sampler, and a distillation phase that realigns the few-step sampler to the improved policy. Intuitively, the distilled sampler acts as a fast proxy for the current policy during RL, and is refreshed whenever the policy improves so that sampling remains both efficient and aligned. Two designs make this loop stable and effective: hybrid distillation sampling preserves on-policy structure during rollout, and reward-aware distillation reuses high-reward trajectories to reduce forgetting during compression. Experiments on text-to-image and text-to-video generation show that DMSampler improves OCR, GenEval, and VBench performance while substantially reducing GPU hours, and that the same idea can be combined with multiple diffusion RL optimizers. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/HiDream-ai/DMSampler.

Poster
World-Model Inspired Emotion-aware Token Refinement for Training-Free Multimodal Emotion Recognition

Kejun Liu, Zhe Chen, Yuanyuan Liu, Ke Wang, Yibing Zhan, Wei Xiang, Hongyan Zhang

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Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) show promise for Multimodal Emotion Recognition (MER) but often remain unreliable because sparse emotional cues could be easily overwhelmed and affected by redundant context. While fine-tuning is effective, it is usually costly when using large models. Training-free methods like chain-of-thought reasoning provide a practical alternative, but they mostly rely on heuristic prompting to influence the model behaviors and do not explicitly focus on emotion relevant tokens internally, which would allow decision-relevant emotional tokens to be diluted by environmental noise, resulting in unstable predictions. To address this limitation without training, we rethink MER from a world-model perspective that treats emotion as a latent state inferred from noisy and redundant multimodal observations. Under frozen parameters, this view suggests that robustness depends on constraining why and how tokens contribute to inference. Based on this insight, we propose WETR (World-Model inspired Emotion-aware Token Refinement), a training-free, plug-and-play regulator that reshapes token usage through two mechanisms: Noise-suppressed Token Selection (NTS), which suppresses redundant intra-modal noise, and State-strengthened Token Reweighting (STR), which amplifies decision-relevant emotional tokens. Experiments on multiple MER benchmarks demonstrate that WETR consistently improves accuracy and stability under frozen parameters, which also improves token-level interpretability.

Spotlight
GUI-Spotlight: Adaptive Iterative Focus Refinement for Enhanced GUI Visual Grounding

Bin Lei, Nuo Xu, Ali Payani, Mingyi Hong, Chunhua Liao, Yu Cao, Caiwen Ding

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Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have markedly expanded the competence of graphical user-interface (GUI) systems, propelling them beyond controlled simulations into complex, real-world environments across diverse platforms. However, practical usefulness is still bounded by the reliability of visual grounding, i.e., mapping textual references to exact on-screen elements. This limitation prevents the system from accurately performing pointer-level actions such as clicking or dragging. To address it, we introduce GUI-Spotlight -- a model trained for image-grounded reasoning that dynamically invokes multiple specialized tools to iteratively narrow its focus to the relevant region of the screen, thereby substantially improving visual grounding accuracy. On the ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark, GUI-Spotlight trained with only 18.5K training samples achieves 52.8\% accuracy, surpassing V2P-7B (50.6\% with 9.6M training samples) and GTA-1-7B (50.1\% with 1.56M training samples).

Poster
Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference

Catherine Chen, Jingyan Shen, Zhun Deng, Lihua Lei

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We present an online, distribution-free framework for controlling the Conditional Value-at-Risk ($\operatorname{CVaR}$), extending conformal tail risk control to non-stationary and adversarial environments. Unlike classical risk control methods, which rely on stationarity or linearity of expectation, our approach provides provable safety guarantees for a nonlinear tail risk functional under arbitrary data-generating processes that may drift or shift strategically over time. By leveraging deep connections between conformal tail risk control, online learning, and the variational representation of $\operatorname{CVaR}$ introduced by Rockafellar and Uryasev, we develop a novel procedure for online $\operatorname{CVaR}$ control with adversarial regret guarantees. The proposed method operates without assumptions on the underlying data-generating process, making it broadly applicable in modern high-stakes deployment settings. We prove that the realized empirical $\operatorname{CVaR}$ is asymptotically controlled at the target level, and that the resulting control is asymptotically tight up to a finite-sample ${O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ conservatism gap. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on portfolio risk management and toxicity mitigation for Large Language Models (LLMs), where rare but catastrophic failures dominate system risk.

Poster
FrameOracle: Learning What to See and How Much to See in Videos

Chaoyu Li, Tianzhi Li, Fei Tao, Zhenyu Zhao, Ziqian Wu, Maozheng Zhao, Juntong Song, Cheng Niu, Pooyan Fazli

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Vision-language models (VLMs) advance video understanding but operate under tight computational budgets, making performance dependent on selecting a small, high-quality subset of frames. Existing frame sampling strategies, such as uniform or fixed-budget selection, fail to adapt to variations in content density or task complexity. To address this, we present FrameOracle, a lightweight, plug-and-play module that predicts both (1) which frames are most relevant to a given query and (2) how many frames are needed. FrameOracle is trained via a curriculum that progresses from weak proxy signals, such as cross-modal similarity, to stronger supervision with FrameOracle-41K, the first large-scale VideoQA dataset with validated keyframe annotations specifying minimal sufficient frames per question. Extensive experiments across five VLMs and six benchmarks show that FrameOracle reduces 16-frame inputs to an average of 10.4 frames without accuracy loss. When starting from 64-frame candidates, it reduces inputs to 13.9 frames on average while improving accuracy by 1.5%, achieving state-of-the-art efficiency–accuracy trade-offs for scalable video understanding.

Poster
Learning the Neighborhood: Contrast-Free Multimodal Self-Supervised Molecular Graph Pretraining

Boshra Ariguib, Mathias Niepert, Andrei Manolache

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High-quality molecular representations are essential for property prediction and molecular design, yet large labeled datasets remain scarce. While self-supervised pretraining on molecular graphs has shown promise, many existing approaches either depend on hand-crafted augmentations or complex generative objectives, and often rely solely on 2D topology, leaving valuable 3D structural information underutilized. To address this gap, we introduce C-FREE (**C**ontrast-**F**ree **R**epresentation learning on **E**go-n**e**ts), a simple framework that integrates 2D graphs with ensembles of 3D conformers. C-FREE learns molecular representations by predicting subgraph embeddings from their complementary neighborhoods in the latent space, using fixed-radius ego-nets as modeling units across different conformers. This design allows us to integrate both geometric and topological information within a hybrid Graph Neural Network (GNN)-Transformer backbone, without negatives, positional encodings, or expensive pre-processing. Pretraining on the GEOM dataset, which provides rich 3D conformational diversity, C-FREE achieves state-of-the-art results on MoleculeNet, surpassing contrastive, generative, and other multimodal self-supervised methods. Fine-tuning across datasets with diverse sizes and molecule types further demonstrates that pretraining transfers effectively to new chemical domains, highlighting the importance of 3D-informed molecular representations.

Poster
Mitigating Visual Hallucinations via Semantic Curriculum Preference Optimization in MLLMs

Yuanshuai Li, Yuping Yan, Junfeng Tang, Zeqi Zheng, Yaochu Jin

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Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have significantly improved the performance of various tasks, but continue to suffer from visual hallucinations, a critical issue where generated responses contradict visual evidence. While Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is widely used for alignment, its application to MLLMs often fails to capture fine-grained semantic differences and encourages shortcut learning. To address these challenges, we propose Semantic Curriculum Preference Optimization (SCPO), a novel framework for MLLM alignment. SCPO employs a progressive, easy-to-hard curriculum built upon our Semantic Curriculum Preference Pairs dataset, which provides fine-grained semantic contrasts sorted by difficulty. This curriculum is trained with a dynamic reference model and a novel symmetric, bidirectional objective to facilitate simultaneous learning from both textual and visual preferences. To our knowledge, SCPO is the first framework to unify semantics, symmetry, and curriculum for MLLM alignment, effectively mitigating visual hallucinations. Extensive experiments on LLaVA models across various scales and versions validate that SCPO demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline models on multiple hallucination benchmarks, reducing the hallucination rate by up to 62.9\%. Moreover, evaluations on generalized benchmarks show that SCPO improves factuality while preserving general capabilities, with its performance remaining stable across general vision-language benchmarks. Code is available \href{https://github.com/ShawnLee0910/SCPO}{here}.

Poster
Causal Structure Learning for Sparse Matrix Fill-in Reduction

Ziwei Li, Shuzi Niu, Tao Yuan, Huiyuan Li

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The performance of sparse direct solvers is fundamentally governed by fill-in, i.e. new nonzero entries arising from the LU factorization of a sparse matrix, as they dictate memory footprint and subsequent computation time. For decades, a variety of graph-theoretic algorithms have aimed to minimize fill-in, a problem known to be both NP-hard and critically important. While recent deep learning methods, optimizing surrogate fill-in objectives, show empirical promise and can outperform classical algorithms on certain matrices, they offer limited interpretability into the underlying mechanism of fill-in generation. To address this, we propose a novel reordering approach, Causal Triplet Structure Learning (CTS), which is grounded in the Fill-Path Theorem and reduces arbitrary-length fill-paths to length-two candidate triplets, identifies the causal structures that trigger fill-in, and intervenes to block their formation. Empirically, we design a multigrid-style GAT with KAN activations to learn vertex embeddings and introduce a causal triplet loss that discourages such structures during training. Experiments on the SuiteSparse Matrix Collection demonstrate that our method reduces fill-in by 6$\times$, leading to 12$\times$ speedup in factorization time compared to state-of-the-art methods on Chemical Process Simulation and Computational Fluid Dynamics matrices.

Poster
SuperHype: Hypergraph Generation via Graph-Superposition Decomposition

Lucas Gantes, Abele Mălan, Roberto Gheda, Robert Birke, Lydia Chen

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Hypergraphs are graph generalizations with key applications in domains such as healthcare, where strict data privacy requirements apply, or bioinformatics, where testing new compounds is costly. However, due to their combinatorial nature, hypergraph representations are often either intractable or lead to significant information loss. For this reason, research into hypergraph synthesis is limited, and state-of-the-art approaches yield poor generation quality in terms of overall structural patterns and graph-level validity. To address such shortcomings, we introduce SuperHype, an exact and tractable hypergraph diffusion model. The core of SuperHype is the graph-superposition decomposition, a novel representation that embeds a hypergraph into a multi-layer graph, enabling a tractable representation with no loss of generalization. To generate new samples from such representations, we introduce a Graph-Superposition Transformer that treats the superposition as an interconnected sequence of layers. Moreover, we enhance the model's performance by incorporating hypergraph-specific auxiliary features and aggregating indirect node interactions via triplet pooling. Our evaluation across five datasets shows that SuperHype generally reproduces local and global connectivity patterns with superior fidelity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Poster
Learning Discrete Diffusion on Graphs via Free-Energy Gradient Flows

Dario Rancati, Jan Maas, Francesco Locatello

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Diffusion-based models on continuous spaces have seen substantial recent progress through the mathematical framework of gradient flows, leveraging the Wasserstein-2 (${W}_2$) metric via the Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) scheme. Despite the increasing popularity of diffusion models on discrete spaces using continuous-time Markov chains, a parallel theoretical framework based on gradient flows has remained elusive due to intrinsic challenges in translating the ${W}_2$ distance directly into these settings. In this work, we propose the first computational approach addressing these challenges, leveraging an appropriate metric $W_K$ on the simplex of probability distributions, which enables us to interpret widely used discrete diffusion paths, such as the discrete heat equation, as gradient flows of specific free-energy functionals. Through this theoretical insight, we introduce a novel methodology for learning diffusion dynamics over discrete spaces, which recovers the underlying functional directly by leveraging first-order optimality conditions for the JKO scheme. The resulting method optimizes a simple quadratic loss, trains extremely fast, does not require individual sample trajectories, and only needs a numerical preprocessing computing $W_K$-geodesics. We validate our method through extensive numerical experiments on synthetic data, showing that we can recover the underlying functional for a variety of graph classes, as well as cell type prediction in single-cell trajectory data. Code will be made available at github.com/dariorancati/discrete-gradient-flow.

Poster
TabularBERT: Binning-Based Self-Supervised Learning for Tabular Representation

Beomjin Park, Seunghwan An, Sungchul Hong, Hosik Choi

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Tabular data is one of the most fundamental and widely used formats for representing structured information. Classical machine learning algorithms continue to achieve substantial success in extracting predictive patterns and constructing accurate models from structured data; however, representation learning approaches that extend language-model-based methods to the tabular setting have opened new opportunities. Nevertheless, conventional tokenization procedures and token embedding mechanisms are not well-suited to numerical variables, as they fail to preserve key numerical properties, including proximity structure and ordinal relationships. To address this limitation, we propose TabularBERT, a Transformer-based model that discretizes numerical variables via binning-based tokenization and learns representations that account for numerical proximity and ordinal information while capturing conditional dependencies among variables through masked self-supervised pretraining. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and interpretability of the proposed approach, highlighting the benefits of language-model-based representation learning in the tabular domain.

Poster
Unbiased Principles, Robust Rewards

Qingnan Ren, Zhen Fang, Shiting Huang, Yu Zeng, Lin Chen, Zehui Chen, Feng Zhao

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Reward models are central to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), especially for open-ended tasks where evaluation is inherently multi-dimensional. Recent Generative Reward Models (GRMs) improve interpretability by producing natural-language rationales and task-specific evaluation principles. However, most existing GRMs generate principles after reading the actor's response, i.e., $Q+R \rightarrow P$. We show that this coupling induces Principle Drift: when the actor performs reward hacking (e.g., verbosity, self-aggrandizement, or hallucinated self-justifications), the reward model may shift its criteria to rationalize the response, yielding inflated scores that in turn reinforce hacking during RL. We propose IP-GRM (Independent Principle GRM), a two-stage framework that first generates principles solely from the question ($Q \rightarrow P$) and then evaluates the response conditioned on $(Q, R, P)$. This decoupling keeps criteria invariant to response content, producing more objective and stable reward signals. For efficient training, we further introduce a Principle Cache strategy that reuses principles within a group, improving GRPO throughput by 23.66\% while maintaining strict intra-group consistency. In GRPO training on creative writing, IP-GRM suppresses reward hacking and improves WritingBench and CreativeWriting-v3 by up to +4.6 and +7.1 points based on Qwen3-8B, achieving state-of-the-art performance among open-source models. The model and dataset are open-sourced at https://github.com/ShadeCloak/IP-GRM.

Poster
When Replanning Becomes the Bottleneck: Budgeted Replanning for Embodied Agents

Shuaijun Liu, Feiyang You, Xingwei Chen, Ningxin Su

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Embodied agents replan frequently to recover from execution drift, partial observability, and coordination hazards, but each LLM-based replanning call can consume an accumulated textual context that grows over time and across agents. Once this context becomes large, replanning latency develops heavy tails and can miss real-time deadlines even when task success remains high, a failure mode that is hard to detect from average latency or success alone. We present BRACE, a controller that formulates replanning as a budgeted control loop by deciding whether to replan, selecting a replanning mode, and allocating an explicit token budget and latency service-level objective (SLO) while accounting for optional efficiency modules. As a reusable component, we introduce E-RECAP, a cost-aware progressive token pruning method that predicts token utility and prunes replanning contexts across transformer layers while preserving critical head and tail tokens. Across Meta Habitat, RoboFactory, and AirSim, BRACE with E-RECAP reduces replanning-call token counts by 62–92% and SLO violation rates from 85.5–100.0% to 4.7–50.0% in settings where task success is already saturated. In a harder RoboFactory setting where open-loop, frozen-plan, and No BRACE all fail, BRACE + E-RECAP reaches 80.0% success with 4.6% SLO violations, demonstrating that tail-aware per-call budgeting is effective across embodied platforms.

Poster
$V_0$: A Generalist Value Model for Any Policy at State Zero

Yi-Kai Zhang, Zhiyuan Yao, Hongyan Hao, Yueqing Sun, Qi Gu, Hui Su, Xunliang Cai, De-Chuan Zhan, Han-Jia Ye

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Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action. In Actor-Critic LLM training (\textit{e.g.}, PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model as large as the policy. However, as the policy evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous training. To avoid this overhead, GRPO eliminates the value model by using the average reward of group rollouts as the baseline; yet, this necessitates extensive sampling to maintain stability. In this paper, we propose $V_0$, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input, leveraging a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model. Acting as a resource scheduler, $V_0$ predicts success rates prior to rollout during GRPO training for efficient sampling budget allocation. During deployment, it functions as a router dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective model. Empirical results demonstrate that $V_0$ significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal performance-cost trade-off in LLM routing.

Poster
Internalizing Safety Understanding in Large Reasoning Models via Verification

Yi Zhang, Yuxin Chen, Leheng Sheng, Dongcheng Zhang, Chaochao Lu, Xiang Wang, An Zhang

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While explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) empowers large reasoning models (LRMs), it enables the generation of riskier final answers. Current alignment paradigms primarily rely on externally enforced compliance, optimizing models to detect malicious prompts rather than evaluating the safety of their own outputs. We argue that this approach remains largely behavioral: our empirical analysis reveals that ostensibly aligned models lack intrinsic safety understanding, often failing to verify their own response safety and remaining vulnerable to adversarial jailbreaks. To address this fundamental limitation, we propose Safety Internal (SInternal), a framework that internalizes safety specifications by training LRMs exclusively on safety verification tasks to critique their own generated answers using expert reasoning trajectories. We demonstrate that learning to verify induces a strong generalization for response safety, significantly enhancing robustness against out-of-domain jailbreaks. Furthermore, when combined with reinforcement learning, SInternal serves as a superior initialization compared to standard supervised fine-tuning, suggesting that internalizing safety understanding creates a more robust foundation for alignment than merely mimicking safe behaviors. Our codes are available at \url{https://github.com/AlphaLab-USTC/SInternal}

Poster
Deriving Neural Scaling Laws from the Statistics of Natural Language

Francesco Cagnetta, Allan Raventos, Surya Ganguli, Matthieu Wyart

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Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that _alone_ can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles _without any_ free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

Poster