ICML 2026 Papers

Traditional saliency map methods, popularized in computer vision, highlight individual input points that contribute most to a model's output. However, in the context of time series, they offer limited insights because semantically meaningful features are often found in other domains. Thus, we introduce in this paper Cross-domain Integrated Gradients, a generalization of Integrated Gradients that enables feature attributions in any domain formulated as an invertible, differentiable transformation of the time domain. Our derivation extends Integrated Gradients into complex-valued domains, enabling frequency-based attributions, while preserving path independence and completeness. We validate our method via controlled mechanistic experiments, quantitative faithfulness and perturbation-stability tests, and real-world case studies. Across wearable heart-rate extraction, EEG-based seizure detection, and zero-shot forecasting, our proposed Cross-domain Integrated Gradients approach identifies whether predictions rely on heart-rate frequencies or interference, epileptic sources or artifacts, and trend or seasonal components, revealing model behaviour that time-domain saliency does not capture. We release an open-source library with TensorFlow, native PyTorch, and Captum support for plug-and-play cross-domain explainability of time-series models.

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to complex and stochastic future conditions, which introduces fundamental challenges in both forecasting and evaluation. Traditional methods typically rely on historical data or factual future conditions, while overlooking counterfactual scenarios. Furthermore, many existing approaches are restricted to simple structured conditions, limiting their ability to generalize to the real-world complexities. To address these gaps, we introduce the task of counterfactual time series forecasting with textual conditions, enabling more flexible and condition-aware forecasting. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework that encompasses both factual and counterfactual settings, even in the absence of ground truth time series. Additionally, we present a novel text-attribution mechanism that distinguishes mutable from immutable factors, thereby improving forecast accuracy under sophisticated and stochastic textual conditions.

Deep forecasting models often suffer from attenuated periodic perception and entangled trend–noise representations as network depth increases. Moreover, the widely adopted channel-independent paradigm, while improving training stability, disrupts intrinsic dynamic coordination among variables, hindering the modeling of cross-variable consistency in multivariate time series. To address these issues, we propose PESD-TSF, a physics-inspired structured decomposition framework for long-term time series forecasting that jointly emphasizes interpretability and predictive accuracy. PESD-TSF introduces three key designs. First, a Multiplicative Periodic Gating mechanism incorporates continuous-time priors to dynamically modulate signal amplitudes, preserving periodic structures across deep layers. Second, a multi-scale structured encoder integrates detrended attention with hierarchical sampling to explicitly decouple long-term trends from high-frequency variations while retaining fine-grained temporal semantics. Third, to recover disrupted inter-variable dependencies, we propose Cross-Scale Collaborative Attention (CSCA) together with an RLC regularization scheme, which reconstructs global inter-variable topology in deep feature spaces and enforces physically consistent collaboration through orthogonality and consistency constraints. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets from multiple domains demonstrate that PESD-TSF consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, with particularly strong gains on multivariate forecasting tasks involving complex inter-variable coupling, highlighting its superior structural modeling capability and generalization.

Learning from continuous-time trajectories requires modeling multivariate sensor measurements generated by underlying physical or dynamical processes. Under extreme data compression and heterogeneous sampling, directly optimizing synthetic signals as discrete sample values becomes fundamentally misaligned with the underlining \emph{continuous-time physical processes}, often producing high-frequency, non-physical artifacts that overfit specific models and break reuse across architectures and sampling rates. We propose CHESS, a \emph{function-first} synthesis framework shifts optimization from discrete samples to underlying continuous-time signal trajectories. CHESS injects physics-induced structure by jointly enforcing low-rank spatial coherence and piecewise Chebyshev polynomial temporal parameterization, constraining synthesis to a physically meaningful function manifold. We provide theoretical analysis establishing explicit smoothness and stability guaranties. Experiments on diverse sensor testbeds under the dataset distillation protocol demonstrate CHESS consistently outperform state-of-the-art methods with a compression ratios up to $133\times$ for each synthetic sample. Furthermore, CHESS exhibits strong cross-architecture generalization and enables zero-shot adaptation across different sampling resolutions.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw $k$ inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples $k$. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal $k$ beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed $k$, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the ``best-of-$k$" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as $\Theta(1/k^2)$ and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that achieves sampling-rate–equivariant forecasting through a unified design that pairs a state space model (SSM) encoder with a functional basis decoder (FBD). This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons without retraining. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being one of the smallest TSFMs, FlowState achieves state-of-the-art results on the widely used GIFT-Eval benchmark, while demonstrating superior adaptability to unseen sampling rates. Our detailed analyses confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt to varying input sampling rates.

How can we use AI to discover a new state of the art for a scientific problem? Prior work in test-time scaling, such as AlphaEvolve, performs search by prompting a frozen LLM. We perform reinforcement learning at test time, so the LLM can continue to train, but now with experience specific to the test problem. This form of continual learning is quite special, because its goal is to produce one great solution rather than many good ones on average, and to solve this very problem rather than generalize to other problems. Therefore, our learning objective and search subroutine are designed to prioritize the most promising solutions. We call this method Test-Time Training to Discover (TTT-Discover). Following prior work, we focus on problems with continuous rewards. We report results for every problem we attempted, across mathematics, GPU kernel engineering, algorithm design, and biology. TTT-Discover sets the new state of the art in almost all of them: (i) Erdős' minimum overlap problem and an autocorrelation inequality; (ii) a GPUMode kernel competition (up to 2× faster than prior art); (iii) past AtCoder algorithm competitions; and (iv) denoising problem in single-cell analysis. Our solutions are reviewed by experts or the organizers. All our results are achieved with an open model, OpenAI gpt-oss-120b, and can be reproduced with our publicly available code, in contrast to previous best results that required closed frontier models. Our test-time training runs are performed using Tinker, an API by Thinking Machines, with a cost of only a few hundred dollars per problem.

Multivariate time series forecasting is critical in many real-world systems, and thus modeling cross-channel dependencies is essential. Although existing methods improve overall accuracy by enhancing representations and cross-channel interactions, it remains challenging to reliably capture inter-variable dependencies under specific conditions. We observe that dependencies in real data are often state-dependent and noisy; in such cases, dense interactions can amplify spurious correlations and lead to representation over-smoothing, which may yield unreliable predictions in certain scenarios. Motivated by this, we propose MS-FLOW, a sparse-bottleneck framework that explicitly models inter-variable interaction as capacity-limited information flow. Specifically, MS-FLOW replaces fully connected communication with selective sparse routing, retaining only a few critical dependency paths and injecting cross-variable signals under a strict communication budget, thereby suppressing redundant connections and spurious-correlation propagation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MS-FLOW learns more reliable multivariate correlations, achieving state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on 12 real-world benchmarks while producing fewer yet more reliable dependencies, shifting multivariate forecasting from “more interaction” to “more effective interaction”.

Event sequences from complex systems, such as clinical workflows, are often sparse and incomplete. As a result, downstream models are trained on data that only partially captures the underlying dynamics. Synthetic sequence generation can augment real data by filling in missing structure and improving coverage of rare patterns, but generated trajectories must remain realistic, satisfy domain constraints, and allow control. We propose the Forward-Chaining Temporal Point Process (FC-TPP), a framework for constraint-aware and controllable sequence generation in continuous time. FC-TPP maintains an explicit latent symbolic state encoding high-level predicates, which evolves through a differentiable multi-hop forward-chaining operator. Logical rules update the latent state based on recent events, while a temporal point process decoder generates future event times and types conditioned on this evolving state. By tying the generative dynamics to multi-hop reasoning in latent space, FC-TPP incorporates symbolic structure throughout generation rather than relying directly on raw event histories. Experiments on synthetic data and four semi-synthetic/real-world benchmarks—LogiCity, MIMIC-IV, EPIC-100, and IKEA ASM—show that FC-TPP achieves higher generation quality under limited and incomplete data, with stronger constraint adherence and greater controllability than purely neural and prior neuro-symbolic baselines.

State-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a powerful foundation for long-range sequence modeling, with the HiPPO framework showing that continuous-time projection operators can be used to derive stable, memory-efficient dynamical systems that encode the past history of the input signal. However, existing projection-based SSMs often rely on polynomial bases with global temporal support, whose inductive biases are poorly matched to signals exhibiting localized or transient structure. In this work, we introduce \emph{WaveSSM}, a collection of SSMs constructed over wavelet frames. Our key observation is that wavelet frames yield a localized support on the temporal dimension, useful for tasks requiring precise localization. Empirically, we show that on equal conditions, \textit{WaveSSM} outperforms orthogonal counterparts as S4 on real-world datasets with transient dynamics, including physiological signals on the PTB-XL dataset and raw audio on Speech Commands.

Time series forecasting is critical in domains such as finance, energy, and healthcare, yet real-world datasets often exhibit non-stationarity, noise, missing values, and distribution shifts, posing severe challenges for generalization. In practice, industry solutions typically rely on customized forecasting frameworks that combine imputation, decomposition, and specialized models. However, such frameworks are costly to engineer and maintain. Moreover, we observe that many frameworks suffer from the impacts of distribution shifts, which degrade their respective performance. It motivates a paradigm that transfers reliably across heterogeneous datasets while accumulating reusable strategy knowledge for large-scale, dynamic environments. Although large language model-based agents have recently shown strong reasoning and tool-use capabilities, existing approaches do not consistently adapt forecasting workflows across diverse time series. We identify two primary factors, including limited strategy-level supervision and the inherent complexity of mapping dataset-specific meta-features to effective forecasting strategies. To address these challenges, we propose BECRA, a novel agent training paradigm that learns forecasting intelligence through contrast-aware exploration and agent-level causal lesson extraction, without human-annotated supervision. BECRA distills symbolic strategy lessons that support in-context planning on unseen datasets, enabling zero-shot training adaptation.

While edge GPUs are increasingly used for latency-critical DNN tasks, limited resources often fail to meet strict real-time (RT) requirements under concurrent workloads. Existing preemption and early-exit mechanisms often underutilize GPU resources through single-task queuing and sacrifice excessive accuracy during task bursts. To address this, we propose RTInfer, a novel system that enables concurrent RT task execution while balancing throughput and accuracy. RTInfer integrates an accuracy-calibrated lightweight variant co-optimization to generate efficient models, a memory-layout-aware scheduler to mitigate fragmentation during preemption, and an on-demand loading strategy to minimize host-to-GPU latency. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that RTInfer outperforms state-of-the-art methods by reducing average deadline miss rate (DMR) from 32.8\% to 0\% and improving accuracy by up to 56.5\%.

We propose Re-FORC, an adaptive reward prediction method that, given a query, enables prediction of the expected future rewards as a function of the number of future thinking tokens. Re-FORC trains a lightweight adapter on reasoning models, demonstrating improved prediction with longer reasoning and larger models. Re-FORC enables: 1) early stopping of unpromising reasoning chains, reducing compute by up to 24\% compared to fixed-budget cutoffs, while maintaining accuracy, 2) optimized model and thinking length selection that outperforms the largest model alone---reaching 1.7 percentage points higher peak accuracy while needing up to 12\% less compute to match the largest model's accuracy, 3) adaptive test-time scaling, which increases accuracy by 8.8 percentage points (on average at maximum compute) over confidence-based baselines. Re-FORC allows dynamic reasoning with length control via cost-per-token thresholds while estimating computation time upfront.

TabPFN has recently gained attention as a foundation model for tabular datasets, achieving strong performance by leveraging in-context learning on synthetic data. However, we find that TabPFN is vulnerable to label shift, often overfitting to the majority class in the training dataset. To address this limitation, we propose DistPFN, the first test-time posterior adjustment method designed for tabular foundation models. DistPFN rescales predicted class probabilities by downweighting the influence of the training prior (i.e., the class distribution of the context) and emphasizing the contribution of the model’s predicted posterior, without architectural modification or additional training. We further introduce DistPFN-T, which incorporates temperature scaling to adaptively control the adjustment strength based on the discrepancy between prior and posterior. We evaluate our methods on over 250 OpenML datasets, demonstrating substantial improvements for various TabPFN-based models in classification tasks under label shift, while maintaining strong performance in standard settings without label shift. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/DistPFN.

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutIS, a model-agnostic plugın that shifts the paradigm from what to learn to how much to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates, selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have been proposed; however, they often exhibit a high sensitivity to noise, resulting in spurious causal inferences on real data. In this paper, we observe that the frequency spectra of many real-world time series follow a power-law distribution, notably due to an inherent self-organizing behavior. Leveraging this insight, we build a robust CD method based on the extraction of power‑law spectral features that amplify genuine causal signals. Our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets with known causal structures, demonstrating its robustness and practical relevance.

As black box models and pretrained models gain traction in time series applications, understanding and explaining their predictions becomes increasingly vital, especially in high-stakes domains where interpretability and trust are essential. However, most of the existing methods involve only in-distribution explanation, and do not generalize outside the training support, which requires the learning capability of generalization. In this work, we aim to provide a framework to explain black-box models for time series data through the dual lenses of Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) and causality. We show that many current explanation methods are sensitive to distributional shifts, limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. Building on the concept of Sparse Autoencoder, we introduce TimeSAE, a framework for black-box model explanation. We conduct extensive evaluations of TimeSAE on both synthetic and real-world time series datasets, comparing it to leading baselines. The results, supported by both quantitative metrics and qualitative insights, show that TimeSAE provides more faithful and robust explanations. Our code is available in an easy-to-use library TimeSAE-Lib: https://oublalkhalid.github.io/TimeSAE/

The “thinking with images” paradigm has led multimodal large language models to generate intermediate visual steps—such as cropping, annotation, spatial localization, and sketches—to enhance high-resolution perception and complex reasoning. However, existing multimodal Process Reward Models (PRMs) evaluate only textual reasoning and cannot judge the correctness of these visual steps, creating a key gap when visual reasoning is essential for solving tasks. We propose Discriminative Visual Process Reward Model (DiscPRM), a multimodal PRM that jointly evaluates textual and visual intermediate steps by modeling visual reasoning trajectories, image operations, and text-image consistency. To support this, we build VTReward-100K, a dataset of step-by-step visual reasoning sequences with supervision. Experiments show that using DiscPRM for Best-of-N process supervision substantially improves multimodal reasoning performance on tasks requiring visual intermediate steps, achieving over 5% gains across benchmarks. We further introduce VABench, the first benchmark for evaluating PRMs on visual reasoning error detection. We hope this work can provide foundational support for advancing the emerging direction of visual–textual process reward.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce **TIME**, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.