ICML 2025 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

3,342papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    1213.6%
  • Spotlight
    2256.7%
  • Poster
    2,99689.6%

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Learn to Vaccinate: Combining Structure Learning and Effective Vaccination for Epidemic and Outbreak Control

Sepehr Elahi, Paula Mürmann, Patrick Thiran

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The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is a widely used model for the spread of information and infectious diseases, particularly non-immunizing ones, on a graph. Given a highly contagious disease, a natural question is how to best vaccinate individuals to minimize the disease's extinction time. While previous works showed that the problem of optimal vaccination is closely linked to the NP-hard *Spectral Radius Minimization* (SRM) problem, they assumed that the graph is known, which is often not the case in practice. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the extinction time of an outbreak modeled by an SIS model where the graph on which the disease spreads is unknown and only the infection states of the vertices are observed. To this end, we split the problem into two: learning the graph and determining effective vaccination strategies. We propose a novel inclusion-exclusion-based learning algorithm and, unlike previous approaches, establish its sample complexity for graph recovery. We then detail an optimal algorithm for the SRM problem and prove that its running time is polynomial in the number of vertices for graphs with bounded treewidth. This is complemented by an efficient and effective polynomial-time greedy heuristic for any graph. Finally, we present experiments on synthetic and real-world data that numerically validate our learning and vaccination algorithms.

Poster
End-to-End Learning Framework for Solving Non-Markovian Optimal Control

Xiaole Zhang, Peiyu Zhang, Xiongye Xiao, Shixuan Li, Vasileios Tzoumas, Vijay Gupta, Paul Bogdan

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Integer-order calculus fails to capture the long-range dependence (LRD) and memory effects found in many complex systems. Fractional calculus addresses these gaps through fractional-order integrals and derivatives, but fractional-order dynamical systems pose substantial challenges in system identification and optimal control tasks. In this paper, we theoretically derive the optimal control via linear quadratic regulator (LQR) for fractional-order linear time-invariant (FOLTI) systems and develop an end-to-end deep learning framework based on this theoretical foundation. Our approach establishes a rigorous mathematical model, derives analytical solutions, and incorporates deep learning to achieve data-driven optimal control of FOLTI systems. Our key contributions include: (i) proposing a novel method for system identification and optimal control strategy in FOLTI systems, (ii) developing the first end-to-end data-driven learning framework, Fractional-Order Learning for Optimal Control (FOLOC), that learns control policies from observed trajectories, and (iii) deriving theoretical bounds on the sample complexity for learning accurate control policies under fractional-order dynamics. Experimental results indicate that our method accurately approximates fractional-order system behaviors without relying on Gaussian noise assumptions, pointing to promising avenues for advanced optimal control.

Poster
Conditioning Diffusions Using Malliavin Calculus

Jakiw Pidstrigach, Elizabeth Louise Baker, Carles Domingo-Enrich, George Deligiannidis, Nikolas Nüsken

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In generative modelling and stochastic optimal control, a central computational task is to modify a reference diffusion process to maximise a given terminal-time reward. Most existing methods require this reward to be differentiable, using gradients to steer the diffusion towards favourable outcomes. However, in many practical settings, like diffusion bridges, the reward is singular, taking an infinite value if the target is hit and zero otherwise. We introduce a novel framework, based on Malliavin calculus and centred around a generalisation of the Tweedie score formula to nonlinear stochastic differential equations, that enables the development of methods robust to such singularities. This allows our approach to handle a broad range of applications, like diffusion bridges, or adding conditional controls to an already trained diffusion model. We demonstrate that our approach offers stable and reliable training, outperforming existing techniques. As a byproduct, we also introduce a novel score matching objective. Our loss functions are formulated such that they could readily be extended to manifold-valued and infinite dimensional diffusions.

Poster