ICML 2025 Papers

Bilevel optimization is characterized by a two-level optimization structure, where the upper-level problem is constrained by optimal lower-level solutions, and such structures are prevalent in real-world problems. The constraint by optimal lower-level solutions poses significant challenges, especially in noisy, constrained, and derivative-free settings, as repeating lower-level optimizations is sample inefficient and predicted lower-level solutions may be suboptimal. We present BILevel Bayesian Optimization (BILBO), a novel Bayesian optimization algorithm for general bilevel problems with blackbox functions, which optimizes both upper- and lower-level problems simultaneously, without the repeated lower-level optimization required by existing methods. BILBO samples from confidence-bounds based trusted sets, which bounds the suboptimality on the lower level. Moreover, BILBO selects only one function query per iteration, where the function query selection strategy incorporates the uncertainty of estimated lower-level solutions and includes a conditional reassignment of the query to encourage exploration of the lower-level objective. The performance of BILBO is theoretically guaranteed with a sublinear regret bound for commonly used kernels and is empirically evaluated on several synthetic and real-world problems.

Training neural networks on randomly generated artificial datasets yields Bayesian models that capture the prior defined by the dataset-generating distribution. Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) are a class of methods designed to leverage this insight. In an era of rapidly increasing computational resources for pre-training and a near stagnation in the generation of new real-world data in many applications, PFNs are poised to play a more important role across a wide range of applications. They enable the efficient allocation of pre-training compute to low-data scenarios. Originally applied to small Bayesian modeling tasks, the field of PFNs has significantly expanded to address more complex domains and larger datasets. This position paper argues that PFNs and other amortized inference approaches represent the future of Bayesian inference, leveraging amortized learning to tackle data-scarce problems. We thus believe they are a fruitful area of research. In this position paper, we explore their potential and directions to address their current limitations.

Neural operators generalize neural networks to learn mappings between function spaces from data. They are commonly used to learn solution operators of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) or propagators of time-dependent PDEs. However, to make them useful in high-stakes simulation scenarios, their inherent predictive error must be quantified reliably. We introduce LUNO, a novel framework for approximate Bayesian uncertainty quantification in trained neural operators. Our approach leverages model linearization to push (Gaussian) weight-space uncertainty forward to the neural operator's predictions. We show that this can be interpreted as a probabilistic version of the concept of currying from functional programming, yielding a function-valued (Gaussian) random process belief. Our framework provides a practical yet theoretically sound way to apply existing Bayesian deep learning methods such as the linearized Laplace approximation to neural operators. Just as the underlying neural operator, our approach is resolution-agnostic by design. The method adds minimal prediction overhead, can be applied post-hoc without retraining the network, and scales to large models and datasets. We evaluate these aspects in a case study on Fourier neural operators.