ICML 2025 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

3,342papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    1213.6%
  • Spotlight
    2256.7%
  • Poster
    2,99689.6%

Browse all papers

LLMs on the Line: Data Determines Loss-to-Loss Scaling Laws

Prasanna Mayilvahanan, Thaddäus Wiedemer, Sayak Mallick, Matthias Bethge, Wieland Brendel

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Scaling laws guide the development of large language models (LLMs) by offering estimates for the optimal balance of model size, tokens, and compute. More recently, loss-to-loss scaling laws that relate losses across pretraining datasets and downstream tasks have emerged as a powerful tool for understanding and improving LLM performance and generalization. In this work, we investigate which factors most strongly influence loss-to-loss scaling. Our experiments reveal that the pretraining data determines the scaling trend. In contrast, model size, optimization hyperparameters, tokenizer and even significant architectural differences, such as between transformer-based models like Llama and state-space models like Mamba, generally have limited impact. Consequently, practitioners should carefully curate pretraining datasets for optimal downstream performance, while architectures and other settings can be freely optimized for training efficiency.

Poster
Attention-Only Transformers via Unrolled Subspace Denoising

Peng Wang, Yifu Lu, Yaodong Yu, Druv Pai, Qing Qu, Yi Ma

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Despite the popularity of transformers in practice, their architectures are empirically designed and neither mathematically justified nor interpretable. Moreover, as indicated by many empirical studies, some components of transformer architectures may be redundant. To derive a fully interpretable transformer architecture with only necessary components, we contend that the goal of representation learning is to compress a set of noisy initial token representations towards a mixture of low-dimensional subspaces. To compress these noisy token representations, an associated denoising operation naturally takes the form of a multi-head (subspace) self-attention. By unrolling such iterative denoising operations into a deep network, we arrive at a highly compact architecture that consists of \textit{only} self-attention operators with skip connections at each layer. Moreover, we show that each layer performs highly efficient denoising: it improves the signal-to-noise ratio of token representations \textit{at a linear rate} with respect to the number of layers. Despite its simplicity, extensive experiments on vision and language tasks demonstrate that such a transformer achieves performance close to that of standard transformer architectures such as GPT-2 and CRATE.

Poster
Learngene Tells You How to Customize: Task-Aware Parameter Initialization at Flexible Scales

Jiaze Xu, Shiyu Xia, Xu Yang, Jiaqi Lv, Xin Geng

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Appropriate parameter initialization strategies are essential for reducing the high computational costs of training large pretrained models in various task scenarios. Graph HyperNetwork (GHN), a parameter initialization method, has recently demonstrated strong performance in initializing models. However, GHN still faces several challenges, including limited effectiveness in initializing larger models, poor performance on smaller datasets, and the requirement of task-specific GHN training, where each new task necessitates retraining the GHN model, leading to increased computational and storage overhead. To overcome these challenges, motivated by the recently proposed Learngene framework, we propose a novel method called **T**ask-**A**ware **L**earngene (**TAL**). Briefly, our approach pretrains a TAL model under the guidance of a well-trained model and then performs multi-task tuning to obtain a shared TAL model that enables parameter prediction based on both model architectures and task-specific characteristics. Extensive experiments show the superiority of TAL. Models initialized with TAL outperform those initialized using GHN method by an average of 24.39\% in terms of accuracy across Decathlon datasets.

Poster
Self-Supervised Transformers as Iterative Solution Improvers for Constraint Satisfaction

Yudong Xu, Wenhao Li, Scott Sanner, Elias Boutros Khalil

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We present a Transformer-based framework for Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs). CSPs find use in many applications and thus accelerating their solution with machine learning is of wide interest. Most existing approaches rely on supervised learning from feasible solutions or reinforcement learning, paradigms that require either feasible solutions to these NP-Complete CSPs or large training budgets and a complex expert-designed reward signal. To address these challenges, we propose ConsFormer, a self-supervised framework that leverages a Transformer as a solution refiner. ConsFormer constructs a solution to a CSP iteratively in a process that mimics local search. Instead of using feasible solutions as labeled data, we devise differentiable approximations to the discrete constraints of a CSP to guide model training. Our model is trained to improve random assignments for a single step but is deployed iteratively at test time, circumventing the bottlenecks of supervised and reinforcement learning. Experiments on Sudoku, Graph Coloring, Nurse Rostering, and MAXCUT demonstrate that our method can tackle out-of-distribution CSPs simply through additional iterations.

Poster
FlipAttack: Jailbreak LLMs via Flipping

Yue Liu, Xiaoxin He, Miao Xiong, Jinlan Fu, Shumin Deng, YINGWEI MA, Jiaheng Zhang, Bryan Hooi

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This paper proposes a simple yet effective jailbreak attack named FlipAttack against black-box LLMs. First, from the autoregressive nature, we reveal that LLMs tend to understand the text from left to right and find that they struggle to comprehend the text when the perturbation is added to the left side. Motivated by these insights, we propose to disguise the harmful prompt by constructing a left-side perturbation merely based on the prompt itself, then generalize this idea to 4 flipping modes. Second, we verify the strong ability of LLMs to perform the text-flipping task and then develop 4 variants to guide LLMs to understand and execute harmful behaviors accurately. These designs keep FlipAttack universal, stealthy, and simple, allowing it to jailbreak black-box LLMs within only 1 query. Experiments on 8 LLMs demonstrate the superiority of FlipAttack. Remarkably, it achieves $\sim$78.97\% attack success rate across 8 LLMs on average and $\sim$98\% bypass rate against 5 guard models on average.

Poster
Foundation Molecular Grammar: Multi-Modal Foundation Models Induce Interpretable Molecular Graph Languages

Michael Sun, Weize Yuan, Gang Liu, Wojciech Matusik, Jie Chen

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Recent data-efficient molecular generation approaches exploit graph grammars to introduce interpretability into the generative models. However, grammar learning therein relies on expert annotation or unreliable heuristics for algorithmic inference. We propose Foundation Molecular Grammar (FMG), which leverages multi-modal foundation models (MMFMs) to induce an interpretable molecular language. By exploiting the chemical knowledge of an MMFM, FMG renders molecules as images, describes them as text, and aligns information across modalities using prompt learning. FMG can be used as a drop-in replacement for the prior grammar learning approaches in molecular generation and property prediction. We show that FMG not only excels in synthesizability, diversity, and data efficiency but also offers built-in chemical interpretability for automated molecular discovery workflows. Code is available at https://github.com/shiningsunnyday/induction.

Poster
Unifews: You Need Fewer Operations for Efficient Graph Neural Networks

Ningyi Liao, Zihao Yu, Ruixiao Zeng, Siqiang Luo

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Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising performance, but at the cost of resource-intensive operations on graph-scale matrices. To reduce computational overhead, previous studies attempt to sparsify the graph or network parameters, but with limited flexibility and precision boundaries. In this work, we propose Unifews, a joint sparsification technique to unify graph and weight matrix operations and enhance GNN learning efficiency. The Unifews design enables adaptive compression across GNN layers with progressively increased sparsity, and is applicable to a variety of architectures with on-the-fly simplification. Theoretically, we establish a novel framework to characterize sparsified GNN learning in view of the graph optimization process, showing that Unifews effectively approximates the learning objective with bounded error and reduced computational overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Unifews achieves efficiency improvements with comparable or better accuracy, including 10-20x matrix operation reduction and up to 100x acceleration on graphs up to billion-edge scale.

Poster
PCEvolve: Private Contrastive Evolution for Synthetic Dataset Generation via Few-Shot Private Data and Generative APIs

Jianqing Zhang, Yang Liu, Jie Fu, Yang Hua, Tianyuan Zou, Jian Cao, Qiang Yang

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The rise of generative APIs has fueled interest in privacy-preserving synthetic data generation. While the Private Evolution (PE) algorithm generates Differential Privacy (DP) synthetic images using diffusion model APIs, it struggles with few-shot private data due to the limitations of its DP-protected similarity voting approach. In practice, the few-shot private data challenge is particularly prevalent in specialized domains like healthcare and industry. To address this challenge, we propose a novel API-assisted algorithm, Private Contrastive Evolution (PCEvolve), which iteratively mines inherent inter-class contrastive relationships in few-shot private data beyond individual data points and seamlessly integrates them into an adapted Exponential Mechanism (EM) to optimize DP’s utility in an evolution loop. We conduct extensive experiments on four specialized datasets, demonstrating that PCEvolve outperforms PE and other API-assisted baselines. These results highlight the potential of leveraging API access with private data for quality evaluation, enabling the generation of high-quality DP synthetic images and paving the way for more accessible and effective privacy-preserving generative API applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/TsingZ0/PCEvolve.

Spotlight
Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Beyond Class- and Covariate-Conditional Coverage

Konstantina Bairaktari, Jiayun Wu, Steven Wu

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Conformal prediction is a powerful distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Classical methods, such as split conformal prediction, provide marginal coverage, ensuring that the prediction set contains the label of a random test point with a target probability. However, these guarantees may not hold uniformly across different subpopulations, leading to disparities in coverage. Prior work has explored coverage guarantees conditioned on events related to the covariates and label of the test point. We present Kandinsky conformal prediction, a framework that significantly expands the scope of conditional coverage guarantees. In contrast to Mondrian conformal prediction, which restricts its coverage guarantees to disjoint groups—reminiscent of the rigid, structured grids of Piet Mondrian’s art—our framework flexibly handles overlapping and fractional group memberships defined jointly on covariates and labels, reflecting the layered, intersecting forms in Wassily Kandinsky’s compositions. Our algorithm unifies and extends existing methods, encompassing covariate-based group conditional, class conditional, and Mondrian conformal prediction as special cases, while achieving a minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound. Finally, we demonstrate the practicality of our approach through empirical evaluation on real-world datasets.

Poster
Boost-and-Skip: A Simple Guidance-Free Diffusion for Minority Generation

Soobin Um, Beomsu Kim, Jong Chul Ye

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Minority samples are underrepresented instances located in low-density regions of a data manifold, and are valuable in many generative AI applications, such as data augmentation, creative content generation, etc. Unfortunately, existing diffusion-based minority generators often rely on computationally expensive guidance dedicated for minority generation. To address this, here we present a simple yet powerful guidance-free approach called *Boost-and-Skip* for generating minority samples using diffusion models. The key advantage of our framework requires only two minimal changes to standard generative processes: (i) variance-boosted initialization and (ii) timestep skipping. We highlight that these seemingly-trivial modifications are supported by solid theoretical and empirical evidence, thereby effectively promoting emergence of underrepresented minority features. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that Boost-and-Skip greatly enhances the capability of generating minority samples, even rivaling guidance-based state-of-the-art approaches while requiring significantly fewer computations. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/BnS.

Poster
Beyond Confidence: Exploiting Homogeneous Pattern for Semi-Supervised Semantic Segmentation

Rui Sun, Huayu Mai, Wangkai Li, Yujia Chen, Naisong Luo, Yuan Wang, Tianzhu Zhang

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The critical challenge of semi-supervised semantic segmentation lies in how to fully exploit a large volume of unlabeled data to improve the model's generalization performance for robust segmentation. Existing methods mainly rely on confidence-based scoring functions in the prediction space to filter pseudo labels, which suffer from the inherent trade-off between true and false positive rates. In this paper, we carefully design an agent construction strategy to build clean sets of correct (positive) and incorrect (negative) pseudo labels, and propose the Agent Score function (AgScore) to measure the consensus between candidate pixels and these sets. In this way, AgScore takes a step further to capture homogeneous patterns in the embedding space, conditioned on clean positive/negative agents stemming from the prediction space, without sacrificing the merits of confidence score, yielding better trad-off. We provide theoretical analysis to understand the mechanism of AgScore, and demonstrate its effectiveness by integrating it into three semi-supervised segmentation frameworks on Pascal VOC, Cityscapes, and COCO datasets, showing consistent improvements across all data partitions.

Poster
AffinityFlow: Guided Flows for Antibody Affinity Maturation

Can Chen, Karla-Luise Herpoldt, Chenchao Zhao, Zichen Wang, Marcus D. Collins, Shang Shang, Ron Benson

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Antibodies are widely used as therapeutics, but their development requires costly affinity maturation, involving iterative mutations to enhance binding affinity. This paper explores a sequence-only scenario for affinity maturation, using solely antibody and antigen sequences. Recently AlphaFlow wraps AlphaFold within flow matching to generate diverse protein structures, enabling a sequence-conditioned generative model of structure. Building on this, we propose an \textit{alternating optimization} framework that (1) fixes the sequence to guide structure generation toward high binding affinity using a structure-based predictor, then (2) applies inverse folding to create sequence mutations, refined by a sequence-based predictor. A key challenge is the lack of labeled data for training both predictors. To address this, we develop a \textit{co-teaching} module that incorporates valuable information from noisy biophysical energies into predictor refinement. The sequence-based predictor selects consensus samples to teach the structure-based predictor, and vice versa. Our method, \textit{AffinityFlow}, achieves state-of-the-art performance in proof-of-concept affinity maturation experiments.

Poster
DiMa: Understanding the Hardness of Online Matching Problems via Diffusion Models

Boyu Zhang, Aocheng Shen, Bing Liu, Qiankun Zhang, Bin Yuan, Jing Wang, Shenghao Liu, Xianjun Deng

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We explore the potential of \emph{AI-enhanced combinatorial optimization theory}, taking online bipartite matching (OBM) as a case study. In the theoretical study of OBM, the \emph{hardness} corresponds to a performance \emph{upper bound} of a specific online algorithm or any possible online algorithms. Typically, these upper bounds derive from challenging instances meticulously designed by theoretical computer scientists. Zhang et al. (ICML 2024) recently provide an example demonstrating how reinforcement learning techniques enhance the hardness result of a specific OBM model. Their attempt is inspiring but preliminary. It is unclear whether their methods can be applied to other OBM problems with similar breakthroughs. This paper takes a further step by introducing DiMa, a unified and novel framework that aims at understanding the hardness of OBM problems based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). DiMa models the process of generating hard instances as denoising steps, and optimizes them by a novel reinforcement learning algorithm, named \emph{shortcut policy gradient} (SPG). We first examine DiMa on the classic OBM problem by reproducing its known hardest input instance in literature. Further, we apply DiMa to two well-known variants of OBM, for which the exact hardness remains an open problem, and we successfully improve their theoretical state-of-the-art upper bounds.

Poster
Quantifying Treatment Effects: Estimating Risk Ratios via Observational Studies

Ahmed BOUGHDIRI, Julie Josse, Erwan Scornet

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The Risk Difference (RD), an absolute measure of effect, is widely used and well-studied in both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Complementary to the RD, the Risk Ratio (RR), as a relative measure, is critical for a comprehensive understanding of intervention effects: RD can downplay small absolute changes, while RR can highlight them. Despite its significance, the theoretical study of RR has received less attention, particularly in observational settings. This paper addresses this gap by tackling the estimation of RR in observational data. We propose several RR estimators and establish their theoretical properties, including asymptotic normality and confidence intervals. Through analyses on simulated and real-world datasets, we evaluate the performance of these estimators in terms of bias, efficiency, and robustness to generative data models. We also examine the coverage and length of the associated confidence intervals. Due to the non-linear nature of RR, influence function theory yields two distinct efficient estimators with different convergence assumptions. Based on theoretical and empirical insights, we recommend, among all estimators, one of the two doubly-robust estimators, which, intriguingly, challenges conventional expectations.

Poster
FairPFN: A Tabular Foundation Model for Causal Fairness

Jake Robertson, Noah Hollmann, Samuel Müller, Noor Awad, Frank Hutter

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Machine learning (ML) systems are utilized in critical sectors such as healthcare, law enforcement, and finance, but often rely on historical data that contains demographic biases, leading to decisions that perpetuate or intensify existing inequalities. Causal and counterfactual fairness provide a transparent, human-in-the-loop framework to mitigate algorithmic discrimination, aligning closely with legal doctrines of direct and indirect discrimination. However, current causal fairness frameworks hold a key limitation in that they assume prior knowledge of the correct causal model, restricting their applicability in complex fairness scenarios where causal models are unknown or difficult to identify. To bridge this gap, we propose FairPFN, a tabular foundation model pre-trained on synthetic causal fairness data to identify and mitigate the causal effects of protected attributes in its predictions. FairPFN's key contribution is that it requires no knowledge of the causal model and demonstrates strong performance across a diverse set of hand-crafted and real-world causal scenarios relative to robust baseline methods. FairPFN paves the way for a promising direction for future research, making causal fairness more accessible to a wider variety of complex fairness problems.

Poster
Adaptive Elicitation of Latent Information Using Natural Language

Jimmy Wang, Thomas P Zollo, Richard Zemel, Hongseok Namkoong

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Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

Poster
Contrastive Learning with Simplicial Convolutional Networks for Short-Text Classification

Huang Liang, Benedict Lee, Daniel Hui Loong Ng, KELIN XIA

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Text classification is a fundamental task in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Short text classification has recently captured much attention due to its increased amount from various sources with limited labels and its inherent challenges for its sparsity in words and semantics. Recent studies have adopted self-supervised contrastive learning across different representations to improve performance. However, most of the current models face several challenges. Firstly, the augmentation step might not be able to generate positive and negative samples that are semantically similar and dissimilar to the anchor respectively. Secondly, the text data could be enhanced with external auxiliary information that might introduce noise to the sparse text data. In addition, they are limited in capturing higher-order information such as group-wise interactions. In this work, we propose a novel document simplicial complex construction based on text data for a higher-order message-passing mechanism. We enhance the short text classification performance by contrasting the structural representation with the sequential representation generated by the transformer mechanism for improved outcomes and mitigated issues. The proposed framework, Contrastive Learning with Simplicial Convolutional Networks (C-SCN), leverages the expressive power of graph neural networks, models higher-order information beyond pair-wise relations and enriches features through contrastive learning. Experimental results on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the capability of C-SCN to outperform existing models in analysing sequential and complex short-text data.

Poster
The Number of Trials Matters in Infinite-Horizon General-Utility Markov Decision Processes

Pedro Pinto Santos, Alberto Sardinha, Francisco S. Melo

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The general-utility Markov decision processes (GUMDPs) framework generalizes the MDPs framework by considering objective functions that depend on the frequency of visitation of state-action pairs induced by a given policy. In this work, we contribute with the first analysis on the impact of the number of trials, i.e., the number of randomly sampled trajectories, in infinite-horizon GUMDPs. We show that, as opposed to standard MDPs, the number of trials plays a key-role in infinite-horizon GUMDPs and the expected performance of a given policy depends, in general, on the number of trials. We consider both discounted and average GUMDPs, where the objective function depends, respectively, on discounted and average frequencies of visitation of state-action pairs. First, we study policy evaluation under discounted GUMDPs, proving lower and upper bounds on the mismatch between the finite and infinite trials formulations for GUMDPs. Second, we address average GUMDPs, studying how different classes of GUMDPs impact the mismatch between the finite and infinite trials formulations. Third, we provide a set of empirical results to support our claims, highlighting how the number of trajectories and the structure of the underlying GUMDP influence policy evaluation.

Spotlight
Flowing Datasets with Wasserstein over Wasserstein Gradient Flows

Clément Bonet, Christophe Vauthier, Anna Korba

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Many applications in machine learning involve data represented as probability distributions. The emergence of such data requires radically novel techniques to design tractable gradient flows on probability distributions over this type of (infinite-dimensional) objects. For instance, being able to flow labeled datasets is a core task for applications ranging from domain adaptation to transfer learning or dataset distillation. In this setting, we propose to represent each class by the associated conditional distribution of features, and to model the dataset as a mixture distribution supported on these classes (which are themselves probability distributions), meaning that labeled datasets can be seen as probability distributions over probability distributions. We endow this space with a metric structure from optimal transport, namely the Wasserstein over Wasserstein (WoW) distance, derive a differential structure on this space, and define WoW gradient flows. The latter enables to design dynamics over this space that decrease a given objective functional. We apply our framework to transfer learning and dataset distillation tasks, leveraging our gradient flow construction as well as novel tractable functionals that take the form of Maximum Mean Discrepancies with Sliced-Wasserstein based kernels between probability distributions.

Oral
Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Rylan Schaeffer, Hailey Schoelkopf, Brando Miranda, Gabriel Mukobi, Varun Madan, Adam Ibrahim, Herbie Bradley, Stella Biderman, Sanmi Koyejo

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Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property for engineers, companies, economists and governments alike, and while a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, predictable scaling behavior on downstream capabilities remains elusive. While many factors are certainly responsible, this paper shines a light on a significant factor that makes predicting scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question answering benchmarks challenging and illuminates a path towards making such downstream evaluations predictable with scale. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrades the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for \textit{incorrect} choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Poster