Counterfactual Fairness

Graphical models have been widely used as parsimonious encoders of constraints of the underlying probability models. When organized in a structured way, these models can facilitate the derivation of non-trivial constraints, the inference of quantities of interest, and the optimization of their estimands. In particular, causal diagrams allow for the efficient representation of structural constraints of the underlying causal system. In this paper, we introduce an efficient graphical construction called Ancestral Multi-world Networks that is sound and complete for reading counterfactual independences from a causal diagram using d-separation. Moreover, we introduce the counterfactual (ctf-) calculus, which can be used to transform counterfactual quantities using three rules licensed by the constraints encoded in the diagram. This result generalizes Pearl’s celebrated do-calculus from interventional to counterfactual reasoning.

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which still have limitations in performance and generalization. This paper proposes a novel framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes using the Transformer, exhibiting stronger estimation ability. Under mild assumptions, the proposed estimator within this framework is consistent and asymptotically normal. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct simulation experiments and real data experiments. Simulation experiments show that our estimator has a stronger estimation capability than baseline methods. Real data experiments provide a valuable conclusion to the causal effect of conflicts on forest loss in Colombia. The source code is available at this [URL](https://github.com/lihe-maxsize/DeppSTCI_Release_Version-master).

Although numerous complex algorithms for treatment effect estimation have been developed in recent years, their effectiveness remains limited when handling insufficiently labeled training sets due to the high cost of labeling the post-treatment effect, e.g., the expensive tumor imaging or biopsy procedures needed to evaluate treatment effects. Therefore, it becomes essential to actively incorporate more high-quality labeled data, all while adhering to a constrained labeling budget. To enable data-efficient treatment effect estimation, we formalize the problem through rigorous theoretical analysis within the active learning context, where the derived key measures -- factual and counterfactual covering radii determine the risk upper bound. To reduce the bound, we propose a greedy radius reduction algorithm, which excels under an idealized, balanced data distribution. To generalize to more realistic data distributions, we further propose FCCM, which transforms the optimization objective into the Factual and Counterfactual Coverage Maximization to ensure effective radius reduction during data acquisition. Furthermore, benchmarking FCCM against other baselines demonstrates its superiority across both fully synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets. Code: https://github.com/uqhwen2/FCCM.

Fairness of decision-making algorithms is an increasingly important issue. In this paper, we focus on spectral clustering with group fairness constraints, where every demographic group is represented in each cluster proportionally as in the general population. We present a new efficient method for fair spectral clustering (Fair SC) by casting the Fair SC problem within the difference of convex functions (DC) framework. To this end, we introduce a novel variable augmentation strategy and employ an alternating direction method of multipliers type of algorithm adapted to DC problems. We show that each associated subproblem can be solved efficiently, resulting in higher computational efficiency compared to prior work, which required a computationally expensive eigendecomposition. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing significant speedups in computation time over prior art, especially as the problem size grows. This work thus represents a considerable step forward towards the adoption of fair clustering in real-world applications.

Machine learning (ML) systems are utilized in critical sectors such as healthcare, law enforcement, and finance, but often rely on historical data that contains demographic biases, leading to decisions that perpetuate or intensify existing inequalities. Causal and counterfactual fairness provide a transparent, human-in-the-loop framework to mitigate algorithmic discrimination, aligning closely with legal doctrines of direct and indirect discrimination. However, current causal fairness frameworks hold a key limitation in that they assume prior knowledge of the correct causal model, restricting their applicability in complex fairness scenarios where causal models are unknown or difficult to identify. To bridge this gap, we propose FairPFN, a tabular foundation model pre-trained on synthetic causal fairness data to identify and mitigate the causal effects of protected attributes in its predictions. FairPFN's key contribution is that it requires no knowledge of the causal model and demonstrates strong performance across a diverse set of hand-crafted and real-world causal scenarios relative to robust baseline methods. FairPFN paves the way for a promising direction for future research, making causal fairness more accessible to a wider variety of complex fairness problems.

This paper investigates $\sim_{\mathcal{L}\_3}$-identifiability, a form of complete counterfactual identifiability within the Pearl Causal Hierarchy (PCH) framework, ensuring that all Structural Causal Models (SCMs) satisfying the given assumptions provide consistent answers to all causal questions. To simplify this problem, we introduce exogenous isomorphism and propose $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability, reflecting the strength of model identifiability required for $\sim_{\mathcal{L}\_3}$-identifiability. We explore sufficient assumptions for achieving $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability in two special classes of SCMs: Bijective SCMs (BSCMs), based on counterfactual transport, and Triangular Monotonic SCMs (TM-SCMs), which extend $\sim_{\mathcal{L}\_2}$-identifiability. Our results unify and generalize existing theories, providing theoretical guarantees for practical applications. Finally, we leverage neural TM-SCMs to address the consistency problem in counterfactual reasoning, with experiments validating both the effectiveness of our method and the correctness of the theory.

Fairness in human and algorithmic decision-making is crucial in areas such as criminal justice, education, and social welfare. Recently, counterfactual fairness has drawn increasing research interest, suggesting that decision-making for individuals should remain the same when intervening with different values on protected attributes. Nevertheless, the question of "which attributes and individuals should be protected" is rarely discussed in the existing counterfactual fairness literature. For example, when considering leg disability as a protected attribute, the algorithms should not treat individuals with leg disabilities differently in college admissions, but one may naturally consider this factor when selecting runner athletes. In other words, when and how to enforce fairness is expected to depend on the causal relation between the protected attribute and the outcome of interest. Formally, this paper proposes principal counterfactual fairness using the concept of principal stratification from the causal inference literature, focusing on whether an algorithm is counterfactually fair for individuals whose protected attribute has no individual causal effect on the outcome of interest. To examine whether an algorithm satisfies principal counterfactual fairness, we derive the statistical bounds and propose a post-processing approach to achieving principal counterfactual fairness with minimal individual decision changes. Experiments are conducted using synthetic and real-world datasets to verify the effectiveness of our methods.

Artificial intelligence will play a significant role in decision making in numerous aspects of society. Numerous fairness criteria have been proposed in the machine learning community, but there remains limited investigation into fairness as defined through specified attributes in a sequential decision-making framework. In this paper, we focus on causal logistic bandit problems where the learner seeks to make fair decisions, under a notion of fairness that accounts for counterfactual reasoning. We propose and analyze an algorithm by leveraging primal-dual optimization for constrained causal logistic bandits where the non-linear constraints are a priori unknown and must be learned in time. We obtain sub-linear regret guarantees with leading term similar to that for unconstrained logistic bandits (Lee et al., 2024) while guaranteeing sub-linear constraint violations. We show how to achieve zero cumulative constraint violations with a small increase in the regret bound.