ICML 2024 Papers

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health effects of regularly-taken medicine or of environmental hazards and the long-term effects on users of changes to an online platform. This stands in contrast to short-term treatments or "shocks," whose long-term effect can reasonably be mediated by short-term observations, enabling the use of surrogate methods. Long-term treatments by definition have direct effects on long-term outcomes via continual exposure, so surrogacy conditions cannot reasonably hold. We connect the problem with offline reinforcement learning, leveraging doubly-robust estimators to estimate long-term causal effects for long-term treatments and construct confidence intervals.

The incredible success of transformers on sequence modeling tasks can be largely attributed to the self-attention mechanism, which allows information to be transferred between different parts of a sequence. Self-attention allows transformers to encode causal structure which makes them particularly suitable for sequence modeling. However, the process by which transformers learn such causal structure via gradient-based training algorithms remains poorly understood. To better understand this process, we introduce an in-context learning task that requires learning latent causal structure. We prove that gradient descent on a simplified two-layer transformer learns to solve this task by encoding the latent causal graph in the first attention layer. The key insight of our proof is that the gradient of the attention matrix encodes the mutual information between tokens. As a consequence of the data processing inequality, the largest entries of this gradient correspond to edges in the latent causal graph. As a special case, when the sequences are generated from in-context Markov chains, we prove that transformers learn an induction head (Olsson et al., 2022). We confirm our theoretical findings by showing that transformers trained on our in-context learning task are able to recover a wide variety of causal structures.

Partial identification (PI) presents a significant challenge in causal inference due to the incomplete measurement of confounders. Given that obtaining auxiliary variables of confounders is not always feasible and relies on untestable assumptions, researchers are encouraged to explore the internal information of latent confounders without external assistance. However, these prevailing PI results often lack precise mathematical measurement from observational data or assume that the information pertaining to confounders falls within extreme scenarios. In our paper, we reassess the significance of the marginal confounder distribution in PI. We refrain from imposing additional restrictions on the marginal confounder distribution, such as entropy or mutual information. Instead, we establish the closed-form tight PI for any possible P(U) in the discrete case. Furthermore, we establish the if and only if criterion for discerning whether the marginal confounder information leads to non-vanilla PI regions. This reveals a fundamental negative result wherein the marginal confounder information minimally contributes to PI as the confounder’s cardinality increases. Our theoretical findings are supported by experiments.

This study introduces an innovative method for analyzing the impact of various interventions on customer churn, using the potential outcomes framework. We present a new causal model, the tensorized latent factor block hazard model, which incorporates tensor completion methods for a principled causal analysis of customer churn. A crucial element of our approach is the formulation of a 1-bit tensor completion for the parameter tensor. This captures hidden customer characteristics and temporal elements from churn records, effectively addressing the binary nature of churn data and its time-monotonic trends. Our model also uniquely categorizes interventions by their similar impacts, enhancing the precision and practicality of implementing customer retention strategies. For computational efficiency, we apply a projected gradient descent algorithm combined with spectral clustering. We lay down the theoretical groundwork for our model, including its non-asymptotic properties. The efficacy and superiority of our model are further validated through comprehensive experiments on both simulated and real-world applications.

Due to the high cost of Image Quality Assessment (IQA) datasets, achieving robust generalization remains challenging for prevalent deep learning-based IQA methods. To address this, this paper proposes a novel end-to-end blind IQA method: Causal-IQA. Specifically, we first analyze the causal mechanisms in IQA tasks and construct a causal graph to understand the interplay and confounding effects between distortion types, image contents, and subjective human ratings. Then, through shifting the focus from correlations to causality, Causal-IQA aims to improve the estimation accuracy of image quality scores by mitigating the confounding effects using a causality-based optimization strategy. This optimization strategy is implemented on the sample subsets constructed by a Counterfactual Division process based on the Backdoor Criterion. Extensive experiments illustrate the superiority of Causal-IQA.

Causal models and methods have great promise, but their progress has been stalled. Proposals using causality get squeezed between two opposing worldviews. Scientific perfectionism--an insistence on only using ``correct'' models--slows the adoption of causal methods in knowledge generating applications. Pushing in the opposite direction, the academic discipline of computer science prefers algorithms with no or few assumptions, and technologies based on automation and scalability are often selected for economic and business applications. We argue that these system-centric inductive biases should be replaced with a human-centric philosophy we refer to as scientific pragmatism. The machine learning community must strike the right balance to make space for the causal revolution to prosper.

We consider the effect of temporal aggregation on instantaneous (non-temporal) causal discovery in general setting. This is motivated by the observation that the true causal time lag is often considerably shorter than the observational interval. This discrepancy leads to high aggregation, causing time-delay causality to vanish and instantaneous dependence to manifest. Although we expect such instantaneous dependence has consistency with the true causal relation in certain sense to make the discovery results meaningful, it remains unclear what type of consistency we need and when will such consistency be satisfied. We proposed functional consistency and conditional independence consistency in formal way correspond functional causal model-based methods and conditional independence-based methods respectively and provide the conditions under which these consistencies will hold. We show theoretically and experimentally that causal discovery results may be seriously distorted by aggregation especially in complete nonlinear case and we also find causal relationship still recoverable from aggregated data if we have partial linearity or appropriate prior. Our findings suggest community should take a cautious and meticulous approach when interpreting causal discovery results from such data and show why and when aggregation will distort the performance of causal discovery methods.

Causal inferences from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may not pertain to a *target* population where some effect modifiers have a different distribution. Prior work studies *generalizing* the results of a trial to a target population with no outcome but covariate data available. We show how the limited size of trials makes generalization a statistically infeasible task, as it requires estimating complex nuisance functions. We develop generalization algorithms that supplement the trial data with a prediction model learned from an additional *observational* study (OS), without making *any* assumptions on the OS. We theoretically and empirically show that our methods facilitate better generalization when the OS is "high-quality", and remain robust when it is not, and *e.g.*, have unmeasured confounding.

Causal representation learning aims at identifying high-level causal variables from perceptual data. Most methods assume that all latent causal variables are captured in the high-dimensional observations. We instead consider a partially observed setting, in which each measurement only provides information about a subset of the underlying causal state. Prior work has studied this setting with multiple domains or views, each depending on a fixed subset of latents. Here, we focus on learning from unpaired observations from a dataset with an instance-dependent partial observability pattern. Our main contribution is to establish two identifiability results for this setting: one for linear mixing functions without parametric assumptions on the underlying causal model, and one for piecewise linear mixing functions with Gaussian latent causal variables. Based on these insights, we propose two methods for estimating the underlying causal variables by enforcing sparsity in the inferred representation. Experiments on different simulated datasets and established benchmarks highlight the effectiveness of our approach in recovering the ground-truth latents.

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution of the target population. Nevertheless, this method still relies on the concept of traditional meta-analysis after adjusting for the distribution shift. This work proposes a collaborative inverse propensity score weighting estimator for causal inference with heterogeneous data. Instead of adjusting the distribution shift separately, we use weighted propensity score models to collaboratively adjust for the distribution shift. Our method shows significant improvements over the methods based on meta-analysis when heterogeneity increases. By incorporating outcome regression models, we prove the asymptotic normality when the covariates have dimension $d<8$. Our methods preserve privacy at individual sites by implementing federated learning protocols.

Many applications of RCTs involve the presence of multiple treatment administrators---from field experiments to online advertising---that compete for the subjects' attention. In the face of competition, estimating a causal effect becomes difficult, as the position at which a subject sees a treatment influences their response, and thus the treatment effect. In this paper, we build a game-theoretic model of agents who wish to estimate causal effects in the presence of competition, through a bidding system and a utility function that minimizes estimation error. Our main technical result establishes an approximation with a tractable objective that maximizes the sample value obtained through strategically allocating budget on subjects. This allows us to find an equilibrium in our model: we show that the tractable objective has a pure Nash equilibrium, and that any Nash equilibrium is an approximate equilibrium for our general objective that minimizes estimation error under broad conditions. Conceptually, our work successfully combines elements from causal inference and game theory to shed light on the equilibrium behavior of experimentation under competition.

Most studies on causal inference tackle the issue of confounding bias by reducing the distribution shift between the control and treated groups. However, it remains an open question to adopt an appropriate metric for distribution shift in practice. In this paper, we define a generic balancing error on reweighted samples to characterize the confounding bias, and study the connection between the balancing error and the Wasserstein discrepancy derived from the theory of optimal transport. We not only regard the Wasserstein discrepancy as the metric of distribution shift, but also explore the association between the balancing error and the underlying cost function involved in the Wasserstein discrepancy. Motivated by this, we propose to reduce the balancing error under the framework of optimal transport with learnable marginal distributions and the cost function, which is implemented by jointly learning weights and representations associated with factual outcomes. The experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

The decoder-only Transformer architecture with causal masking and relative position encoding (RPE) has become the de facto choice in language modeling. Despite its exceptional performance across various tasks, we have identified two limitations: First, it prevents all attended tokens from having zero weights during the softmax stage, even if the current embedding has sufficient self-contained information. This compels the model to assign disproportional excessive attention to specific tokens. Second, RPE-based Transformers are not universal approximators due to their limited capacity at encoding absolute positional information, which limits their application in position-critical tasks. In this work, we propose StableMask: a parameter-free method to address both limitations by refining the causal mask. It introduces pseudo-attention values to balance attention distributions and encodes absolute positional information via a progressively decreasing mask ratio. StableMask's effectiveness is validated both theoretically and empirically, showing significant enhancements in language models with parameter sizes ranging from 71M to 1.4B across diverse datasets and encoding methods. We further show that it supports integration with existing optimization techniques, making it easily usable in practical applications.

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

Identifying and estimating a causal effect is a fundamental task when researchers want to infer a causal effect using an observational study without experiments. A conventional assumption is the strict positivity of the given distribution, or so called positivity (or overlap) under the unconfounded assumption that the probabilities of treatments are positive. However, there exist many environments where neither observational data exhibits strict positivity nor unconfounded assumption holds. Against this background, we examine the graphical counterpart of the conventional positivity condition so as to license the use of identification formula without strict positivity. In particular, we explore various approaches, including analysis in a post-hoc manner, do-calculus, $Q$-decomposition, and algorithmic, to yielding a positivity condition for an identification formula, where we relate them, providing a comprehensive view. We further discuss the design of a positivity-aware identification algorithm based on the theoretical characterization of identification formulas.

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit only one single nuisance function, may still encounter misspecification problems under networked interference without appropriate assumptions on the data generation process. To mitigate bias stemming from misspecification, we propose a novel doubly robust causal effect estimator under networked interference, by adapting the targeted learning technique to the training of neural networks. Specifically, we generalize the targeted learning technique into the networked interference setting and establish the condition under which an estimator achieves double robustness. Based on the condition, we devise an end-to-end causal effect estimator by transforming the identified theoretical condition into a targeted loss. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of our designed estimator, revealing a faster convergence rate compared to a single nuisance model. Extensive experimental results on two real-world networks with semisynthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed estimators.