ICML 2021 Papers

We study the identification of direct and indirect causes on time series with latent variables, and provide a constrained-based causal feature selection method, which we prove that is both sound and complete under some graph constraints. Our theory and estimation algorithm require only two conditional independence tests for each observed candidate time series to determine whether or not it is a cause of an observed target time series. Furthermore, our selection of the conditioning set is such that it improves signal to noise ratio. We apply our method on real data, and on a wide range of simulated experiments, which yield very low false positive and relatively low false negative rates.

This paper studies representation learning for multi-task linear bandits and multi-task episodic RL with linear value function approximation. We first consider the setting where we play $M$ linear bandits with dimension $d$ concurrently, and these bandits share a common $k$-dimensional linear representation so that $k\ll d$ and $k \ll M$. We propose a sample-efficient algorithm, MTLR-OFUL, which leverages the shared representation to achieve $\tilde{O}(M\sqrt{dkT} + d\sqrt{kMT} )$ regret, with $T$ being the number of total steps. Our regret significantly improves upon the baseline $\tilde{O}(Md\sqrt{T})$ achieved by solving each task independently. We further develop a lower bound that shows our regret is near-optimal when $d > M$. Furthermore, we extend the algorithm and analysis to multi-task episodic RL with linear value function approximation under low inherent Bellman error (Zanette et al., 2020a). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical result that characterize the benefits of multi-task representation learning for exploration in RL with function approximation.

We consider model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary Markov decision processes. Both the reward functions and the state transition functions are allowed to vary arbitrarily over time as long as their cumulative variations do not exceed certain variation budgets. We propose Restarted Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bounds (RestartQ-UCB), the first model-free algorithm for non-stationary RL, and show that it outperforms existing solutions in terms of dynamic regret. Specifically, RestartQ-UCB with Freedman-type bonus terms achieves a dynamic regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(S^{\frac{1}{3}} A^{\frac{1}{3}} \Delta^{\frac{1}{3}} H T^{\frac{2}{3}})$, where $S$ and $A$ are the numbers of states and actions, respectively, $\Delta>0$ is the variation budget, $H$ is the number of time steps per episode, and $T$ is the total number of time steps. We further show that our algorithm is \emph{nearly optimal} by establishing an information-theoretical lower bound of $\Omega(S^{\frac{1}{3}} A^{\frac{1}{3}} \Delta^{\frac{1}{3}} H^{\frac{2}{3}} T^{\frac{2}{3}})$, the first lower bound in non-stationary RL. Numerical experiments validate the advantages of RestartQ-UCB in terms of both cumulative rewards and computational efficiency. We further demonstrate the power of our results in the context of multi-agent RL, where non-stationarity is a key challenge.

Transfer learning is essential when sufficient data comes from the source domain, with scarce labeled data from the target domain. We develop estimators that achieve minimax linear risk for linear regression problems under distribution shift. Our algorithms cover different transfer learning settings including covariate shift and model shift. We also consider when data are generated from either linear or general nonlinear models. We show that linear minimax estimators are within an absolute constant of the minimax risk even among nonlinear estimators for various source/target distributions.

We study the problem of identifying anomalies in a low-rank matrix observed with sub-exponential noise, motivated by applications in retail and inventory management. State of the art approaches to anomaly detection in low-rank matrices apparently fall short, since they require that non-anomalous entries be observed with vanishingly small noise (which is not the case in our problem, and indeed in many applications). So motivated, we propose a conceptually simple entrywise approach to anomaly detection in low-rank matrices. Our approach accommodates a general class of probabilistic anomaly models. We extend recent work on entrywise error guarantees for matrix completion, establishing such guarantees for sub-exponential matrices, where in addition to missing entries, a fraction of entries are corrupted by (an also unknown) anomaly model. Viewing the anomaly detection as a classification task, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to achieve the min-max optimal detection rate (up to log factors). Using data from a massive consumer goods retailer, we show that our approach provides significant improvements over incumbent approaches to anomaly detection.

Many inference problems, such as sequential decision problems like A/B testing, adaptive sampling schemes like bandit selection, are often online in nature. The fundamental problem for online inference is to provide a sequence of confidence intervals that are valid uniformly over the growing-into-infinity sample sizes. To address this question, we provide a near-optimal confidence sequence for bounded random variables by utilizing Bentkus’ concentration results. We show that it improves on the existing approaches that use the Cram{é}r-Chernoff technique such as the Hoeffding, Bernstein, and Bennett inequalities. The resulting confidence sequence is confirmed to be favorable in synthetic coverage problems, adaptive stopping algorithms, and multi-armed bandit problems.

We consider the problem of explainable $k$-medians and $k$-means introduced by Dasgupta, Frost, Moshkovitz, and Rashtchian (ICML 2020). In this problem, our goal is to find a \emph{threshold decision tree} that partitions data into $k$ clusters and minimizes the $k$-medians or $k$-means objective. The obtained clustering is easy to interpret because every decision node of a threshold tree splits data based on a single feature into two groups. We propose a new algorithm for this problem which is $\tilde O(\log k)$ competitive with $k$-medians with $\ell_1$ norm and $\tilde O(k)$ competitive with $k$-means. This is an improvement over the previous guarantees of $O(k)$ and $O(k^2)$ by Dasgupta et al (2020). We also provide a new algorithm which is $O(\log^{\nicefrac{3}{2}} k)$ competitive for $k$-medians with $\ell_2$ norm. Our first algorithm is near-optimal: Dasgupta et al (2020) showed a lower bound of $\Omega(\log k)$ for $k$-medians; in this work, we prove a lower bound of $\tilde\Omega(k)$ for $k$-means. We also provide a lower bound of $\Omega(\log k)$ for $k$-medians with $\ell_2$ norm.

We study the reward-free reinforcement learning framework, which is particularly suitable for batch reinforcement learning and scenarios where one needs policies for multiple reward functions. This framework has two phases: in the exploration phase, the agent collects trajectories by interacting with the environment without using any reward signal; in the planning phase, the agent needs to return a near-optimal policy for arbitrary reward functions. %This framework is suitable for batch RL setting and the setting where there are multiple reward functions of interes We give a new efficient algorithm, \textbf{S}taged \textbf{S}ampling + \textbf{T}runcated \textbf{P}lanning (\algoname), which interacts with the environment at most $O\left( \frac{S^2A}{\epsilon^2}\poly\log\left(\frac{SAH}{\epsilon}\right) \right)$ episodes in the exploration phase, and guarantees to output a near-optimal policy for arbitrary reward functions in the planning phase, where $S$ is the size of state space, $A$ is the size of action space, $H$ is the planning horizon, and $\epsilon$ is the target accuracy relative to the total reward. Notably, our sample complexity scales only \emph{logarithmically} with $H$, in contrast to all existing results which scale \emph{polynomially} with $H$. Furthermore, this bound matches the minimax lower bound $\Omega\left(\frac{S^2A}{\epsilon^2}\right)$ up to logarithmic factors. Our results rely on three new techniques : 1) A new sufficient condition for the dataset to plan for an $\epsilon$-suboptimal policy % for any totally bounded reward function ; 2) A new way to plan efficiently under the proposed condition using soft-truncated planning; 3) Constructing extended MDP to maximize the truncated accumulative rewards efficiently.

We propose NeRF-VAE, a 3D scene generative model that incorporates geometric structure via Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) and differentiable volume rendering. In contrast to NeRF, our model takes into account shared structure across scenes, and is able to infer the structure of a novel scene—without the need to re-train—using amortized inference. NeRF-VAE’s explicit 3D rendering process further contrasts previous generative models with convolution-based rendering which lacks geometric structure. Our model is a VAE that learns a distribution over radiance fields by conditioning them on a latent scene representation. We show that, once trained, NeRF-VAE is able to infer and render geometrically-consistent scenes from previously unseen 3D environments of synthetic scenes using very few input images. We further demonstrate that NeRF-VAE generalizes well to out-of-distribution cameras, while convolutional models do not. Finally, we introduce and study an attention-based conditioning mechanism of NeRF-VAE’s decoder, which improves model performance.

A key challenge on the path to developing agents that learn complex human-like behavior is the need to quickly and accurately quantify human-likeness. While human assessments of such behavior can be highly accurate, speed and scalability are limited. We address these limitations through a novel automated Navigation Turing Test (ANTT) that learns to predict human judgments of human-likeness. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our automated NTT on a navigation task in a complex 3D environment. We investigate six classification models to shed light on the types of architectures best suited to this task, and validate them against data collected through a human NTT. Our best models achieve high accuracy when distinguishing true human and agent behavior. At the same time, we show that predicting finer-grained human assessment of agents’ progress towards human-like behavior remains unsolved. Our work takes an important step towards agents that more effectively learn complex human-like behavior.

It is well-known that, for separable data, the regularised two-class logistic regression or support vector machine re-normalised estimate converges to the maximal margin classifier as the regularisation hyper-parameter $\lambda$ goes to 0. The fact that different loss functions may lead to the same solution is of theoretical and practical relevance as margin maximisation allows more straightforward considerations in terms of generalisation and geometric interpretation. We investigate the case where this convergence property is not guaranteed to hold and show that it can be fully characterised by the distribution of error terms in the latent variable interpretation of linear classifiers. In particular, if errors follow a regularly varying distribution, then the regularised and re-normalised estimate does not converge to the maximal margin classifier. This shows that classification with fat tails has a qualitatively different behaviour, which should be taken into account when considering real-life data.

We propose a Multiscale Invertible Generative Network (MsIGN) and associated training algorithm that leverages multiscale structure to solve high-dimensional Bayesian inference. To address the curse of dimensionality, MsIGN exploits the low-dimensional nature of the posterior, and generates samples from coarse to fine scale (low to high dimension) by iteratively upsampling and refining samples. MsIGN is trained in a multi-stage manner to minimize the Jeffreys divergence, which avoids mode dropping in high-dimensional cases. On two high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, we show superior performance of MsIGN over previous approaches in posterior approximation and multiple mode capture. On the natural image synthesis task, MsIGN achieves superior performance in bits-per-dimension over baseline models and yields great interpret-ability of its neurons in intermediate layers.

Multiplying matrices is among the most fundamental and most computationally demanding operations in machine learning and scientific computing. Consequently, the task of efficiently approximating matrix products has received significant attention. We introduce a learning-based algorithm for this task that greatly outperforms existing methods. Experiments using hundreds of matrices from diverse domains show that it often runs 10x faster than alternatives at a given level of error, as well as 100x faster than exact matrix multiplication. In the common case that one matrix is known ahead of time, our method also has the interesting property that it requires zero multiply-adds. These results suggest that a mixture of hashing, averaging, and byte shuffling{—}the core operations of our method{—}could be a more promising building block for machine learning than the sparsified, factorized, and/or scalar quantized matrix products that have recently been the focus of substantial research and hardware investment.

Although stochastic optimization is central to modern machine learning, the precise mechanisms underlying its success, and in particular, the precise role of the stochasticity, still remain unclear. Modeling stochastic optimization algorithms as discrete random recurrence relations, we show that multiplicative noise, as it commonly arises due to variance in local rates of convergence, results in heavy-tailed stationary behaviour in the parameters. Theoretical results are obtained characterizing this for a large class of (non-linear and even non-convex) models and optimizers (including momentum, Adam, and stochastic Newton), demonstrating that this phenomenon holds generally. We describe dependence on key factors, including step size, batch size, and data variability, all of which exhibit similar qualitative behavior to recent empirical results on state-of-the-art neural network models. Furthermore, we empirically illustrate how multiplicative noise and heavy-tailed structure improve capacity for basin hopping and exploration of non-convex loss surfaces, over commonly-considered stochastic dynamics with only additive noise and light-tailed structure.

Metric Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a classical method for generating meaningful (non-linear) low-dimensional embeddings of high-dimensional data. MDS has a long history in the statistics, machine learning, and graph drawing communities. In particular, the Kamada-Kawai force-directed graph drawing method is equivalent to MDS and is one of the most popular ways in practice to embed graphs into low dimensions. Despite its ubiquity, our theoretical understanding of MDS remains limited as its objective function is highly non-convex. In this paper, we prove that minimizing the Kamada-Kawai objective is NP-hard and give a provable approximation algorithm for optimizing it, which in particular is a PTAS on low-diameter graphs. We supplement this result with experiments suggesting possible connections between our greedy approximation algorithm and gradient-based methods.

Multi-layered network exploration (MuLaNE) problem is an important problem abstracted from many applications. In MuLaNE, there are multiple network layers where each node has an importance weight and each layer is explored by a random walk. The MuLaNE task is to allocate total random walk budget $B$ into each network layer so that the total weights of the unique nodes visited by random walks are maximized. We systematically study this problem from offline optimization to online learning. For the offline optimization setting where the network structure and node weights are known, we provide greedy based constant-ratio approximation algorithms for overlapping networks, and greedy or dynamic-programming based optimal solutions for non-overlapping networks. For the online learning setting, neither the network structure nor the node weights are known initially. We adapt the combinatorial multi-armed bandit framework and design algorithms to learn random walk related parameters and node weights while optimizing the budget allocation in multiple rounds, and prove that they achieve logarithmic regret bounds. Finally, we conduct experiments on a real-world social network dataset to validate our theoretical results.

An agnostic PAC learning algorithm finds a predictor that is competitive with the best predictor in a benchmark hypothesis class, where competitiveness is measured with respect to a given loss function. However, its predictions might be quite sub-optimal for structured subgroups of individuals, such as protected demographic groups. Motivated by such fairness concerns, we study “multi-group agnostic PAC learnability”: fixing a measure of loss, a benchmark class $\H$ and a (potentially) rich collection of subgroups $\G$, the objective is to learn a single predictor such that the loss experienced by every group $g \in \G$ is not much larger than the best possible loss for this group within $\H$. Under natural conditions, we provide a characterization of the loss functions for which such a predictor is guaranteed to exist. For any such loss function we construct a learning algorithm whose sample complexity is logarithmic in the size of the collection $\G$. Our results unify and extend previous positive and negative results from the multi-group fairness literature, which applied for specific loss functions.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lRV72XaKoxZjgQrLXBJhsM82x54_1Vc4/view?usp=sharing

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should partially disclose information to influence the behavior of a self-interested receiver. Classical models make the stringent assumption that the sender knows the receiver’s utility. This can be relaxed by considering an online learning framework in which the sender repeatedly faces a receiver of an unknown, adversarially selected type. We study, for the first time, an online Bayesian persuasion setting with multiple receivers. We focus on the case with no externalities and binary actions, as customary in offline models. Our goal is to design no-regret algorithms for the sender with polynomial per-iteration running time. First, we prove a negative result: for any 0 < $\alpha$ $\leq$ 1, there is no polynomial-time no-$\alpha$-regret algorithm when the sender’s utility function is supermodular or anonymous. Then, we focus on the setting of submodular sender’s utility functions and we show that, in this case, it is possible to design a polynomial-time no-(1-1/e)-regret algorithm. To do so, we introduce a general online gradient descent framework to handle online learning problems with a finite number of possible loss functions. This requires the existence of an approximate projection oracle. We show that, in our setting, there exists one such projection oracle which can be implemented in polynomial time.