ICLR 2026 Papers

International Conference on Learning Representations

Decision breakdown

5,358papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    2244.2%
  • Poster
    5,13495.8%

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Fixing the Broken Compass: Diagnosing and Improving Inference-Time Reward Modeling

Jiachun Li, Pengfei Cao, Zhuoran Jin, Yubo Chen, Jiexin Xu, Huaijun Li, Xiaojian Jiang, Kang Liu, Jun Zhao

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Inference-time scaling techniques have shown promise in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While recent research has primarily focused on training-time optimization, our work highlights inference-time reward model (RM)-based reasoning as a critical yet overlooked avenue. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of RM behavior across downstream reasoning tasks, revealing three key limitations: (1) RM can impair performance on simple questions, (2) its discriminative ability declines with increased sampling, and (3) high search diversity undermines RM performance. To address these issues, we propose CRISP (Clustered Reward Integration with Stepwise Prefixing), a novel inference-time algorithm that clusters generated reasoning paths by final answers, aggregates reward signals at the cluster level, and adaptively updates prefix prompts to guide generation. Experimental results demonstrate that CRISP significantly enhances LLM reasoning performance, achieving up to 5% accuracy improvement over other RM-based inference methods and an average of 10% gain over advanced reasoning models.

Poster
GRACE: Generative Representation Learning via Contrastive Policy Optimization

Jiashuo Sun, Shixuan Liu, Zhaochen Su, Xianrui Zhong, Pengcheng Jiang, Bowen Jin, Peiran Li, Weijia Shi, Jiawei Han

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Prevailing methods for training Large Language Models (LLMs) as text encoders rely on contrastive losses that treat the model as a black-box function, discarding its generative and reasoning capabilities in favor of static embeddings. We introduce \GRACE{} (Generative Representation Learning via Contrastive Policy Optimization), a novel framework that reimagines contrastive signals not as losses to be minimized, but as rewards that guide a generative policy. In GRACE, the LLM acts as a policy $\pi_\theta$ that produces explicit, human-interpretable rationales—structured natural language explanations of its semantic understanding. These rationales are then encoded into high-quality embeddings via mean pooling. Using policy gradient optimization, we train the model with a multi-component reward function that maximizes similarity between query--positive pairs and minimizes similarity with negatives. This transforms the LLM from an opaque encoder into an interpretable agent whose reasoning process is transparent and inspectable. On MTEB benchmark, GRACE yields broad cross-category gains: averaged over four backbones, the supervised setting improves overall score by 11.5\% over base models, and the unsupervised variant adds 6.9\%, while preserving general capabilities. This work treats contrastive objectives as rewards over rationales, unifying representation learning with generation to produce stronger embeddings and transparent decision traces.

Poster
THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE: GUIDING LLM REASONING TRAJECTORIES WITH PREFIX CONSENSUS

Ishan Jindal, Sai Prashanth Akuthota, Jayant Taneja, SACHIN DEV SHARMA

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Large language models achieve strong reasoning performance, but inference strategies such as Self-Consistency (SC) are computationally expensive, as they fully expand all reasoning traces. We introduce PoLR (Path of Least Resistance), the first inference-time method to leverage prefix self-consistency for compute-efficient reasoning. PoLR clusters short prefixes of reasoning traces, identifies the dominant cluster, and expands only a subset of promising paths, preserving the accuracy benefits of SC while substantially reducing token usage and latency. Our theoretical analysis, framed via mutual information and entropy, explains why early reasoning steps encode strong signals predictive of final correctness. Empirically, PoLR consistently matches or exceeds SC across GSM8K, Math500, AIME 2024/2025, and GPQA-Diamond, reducing token usage by up to 60% and wall-clock latency by up to 50%. Moreover, PoLR is fully complementary to adaptive inference methods (e.g., Adaptive Consistency, Early-Stopping SC) and can serve as a drop-in pre-filter, making SC substantially more efficient and scalable without requiring model fine-tuning.

Poster
Fair Decision Utility in Human-AI Collaboration: Interpretable Confidence Adjustment for Humans with Cognitive Disparities

Jiashi Gao, Kexin Liu, Xinwei Guo, Junlei Zhou, Jiaxin Zhang, Xiangyu Zhao, Guanhua Chen, Xin Yao, Xuetao Wei

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In AI-assisted decision-making, human decision-makers finalize decisions by taking into account both their human confidence and AI confidence regarding specific outcomes. In practice, they often exhibit heterogeneous cognitive capacities, causing their confidence to deviate, sometimes significantly, from the actual label likelihood. We theoretically demonstrate that existing AI confidence adjustment objectives, such as *calibration* and *human-alignment*, are insufficient to ensure fair utility across groups of decision-makers with varying cognitive capacities. Such unfairness may raise concerns about social welfare and may erode human trust in AI systems. To address this issue, we introduce a new concept in AI confidence adjustment: *inter-group-alignment*. By theoretically bounding the utility disparity between human decision-maker groups as a function of *human-alignment* level and *inter-group-alignment* level, we establish an interpretable fairness-aware objective for AI confidence adjustment. Our analysis suggests that achieving utility fairness in AI-assisted decision-making requires both *human-alignment* and *inter-group-alignment*. Building on these objectives, we propose a multicalibration-based AI confidence adjustment approach tailored to scenarios involving human decision-makers with heterogeneous cognitive capacities. We further provide theoretical justification showing that our method constitutes a sufficient condition for achieving both *human-alignment* and *inter-group-alignment*. We validate our theoretical findings through extensive experiments on four real-world tasks. The results demonstrate that AI confidence adjusted toward both *human-alignment* and *inter-group-alignment* significantly improves utility fairness across human decision-maker groups, without sacrificing overall utility. *The implementation code is available at* https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FairHAI.

Poster
Reliability-Adjusted Prioritized Experience Replay

Leonard S. Pleiss, Tobias Sutter, Maximilian Schiffer

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Experience replay enables data-efficient learning from past experiences in online reinforcement learning agents. Traditionally, experiences were sampled uniformly from a replay buffer, regardless of differences in experience-specific learning potential. In an effort to sample more efficiently, researchers introduced Prioritized Experience Replay (PER). In this paper, we propose an extension to PER by introducing a novel measure of temporal difference error reliability. We theoretically show that the resulting transition selection algorithm, Reliability-adjusted Prioritized Experience Replay (ReaPER), enables more efficient learning than PER. We further present empirical results showing that ReaPER outperforms both uniform experience replay and PER across a diverse set of traditional environments including several classic control environments and the Atari-10 benchmark, which approximates the median score across the Atari-57 benchmark within one percent of variance.

Poster
WebShaper: Agentically Data Synthesizing via Information-Seeking Formalization

Zhengwei Tao, Jialong Wu, Wenbiao Yin, Pu Wu, Junkai Zhang, Baixuan Li, Haiyang SHEN, Kuan Li, Liwen Zhang, Xinyu Wang, Wentao Zhang, Yong Jiang, Pengjun Xie, Fei Huang, Jingren Zhou

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The advent of Large Language Model (LLM)-powered agents has revolutionized artificial intelligence by enabling solutions to complex, open-ended tasks through web-based information-seeking (IS) capabilities. The scarcity of high-quality training data has limited the development of IS agents. Existing data synthesis approaches typically adopt an information-driven paradigm that first collects information and then refines question-answer pairs through retrieval. However, this may lead to inconsistency between information structure and reasoning structure, as well as between the question and the corresponding answer. To mitigate, we propose a formalization-driven IS data synthesis framework WebShaper, which systematically formalizes IS tasks using set-theoretic constructs. Central to the formalization is the concept of Knowledge Projections (KP), which enables precise control over reasoning structure by KP operation compositions. During synthesis, we begin by creating seed tasks, then use a multi-step expansion process. At each step, an agentic Expander expands the current formal question more complex through retrieval and validation tools grounded in our formalization. We train our model on the synthesized dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that WebShaper achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-sourced IS agents on competitive benchmarks.

Poster
Reasoning-Aligned Perception Decoupling for Scalable Multi-modal Reasoning

Yunhao Gou, Kai Chen, Zhili LIU, Lanqing HONG, Xin Jin, Zhenguo Li, James Kwok, Yu Zhang

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Recent breakthroughs in reasoning language models have significantly advanced text-based reasoning. On the other hand, Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) still lag behind, hindered by their outdated internal LLMs. Upgrading these is often prohibitively expensive, as it requires complete vision-language alignment retraining which is costly. To address this issue, we introduce Perception-Reasoning Decoupling, which modularizes the MLLM’s reasoning component and makes it easily replaceable. This approach redefines the MLLM's role to convert multi-modal inputs into detailed textual outputs that can be processed by any powerful, external, text-only LLM reasoners. To align the MLLM's perceptual output with the final reasoning task, we propose a novel reinforcement learning algorithm called Visual Perception Optimization (VPO). VPO rewards the MLLM based on the correctness of answers generated by the external reasoner to produce faithful and query-relevant captions. Together, this decoupling pipeline and VPO form our Reasoning-Aligned PerceptIon Decoupling (RAPID) approach. Empirical results show that RAPID achieves significant performance gains on multi-modal reasoning benchmarks. Crucially, RAPID enables a novel inference-time scaling paradigm: Once trained with VPO, the MLLM can be paired with any state-of-the-art LLM reasoner for consistent performance improvement without retraining. The implementation of our method is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/RAPID2-80CD/.

Poster
The False Promise of Zero-Shot Super-Resolution in Machine-Learned Operators

Mansi Sakarvadia, Kareem Hegazy, Amin Totounferoush, Kyle Chard, Yaoqing Yang, Ian Foster, Michael W. Mahoney

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A core challenge in scientific machine learning, and scientific computing more generally, is modeling continuous phenomena which (in practice) are represented discretely. Machine-learned operators (MLO) have been introduced as a means to achieve this modeling goal, as this class of architecture can perform inference at arbitrary resolution. In this work, we evaluate whether this architectural innovation is sufficient to perform “zero-shot super-resolution,” namely to enable a model to serve inference on higher-resolution data than that on which it was originally trained. We comprehensively evaluate both zero-shot sub-resolution and super-resolution (i.e., multi-resolution) inference in MLOs. We decouple multi-resolution inference into two key behaviors: 1) extrapolation to varying frequency information; and 2) interpolating across varying resolutions. We empirically demonstrate that MLOs fail to do both of these tasks in a zero-shot manner. Consequently, we find MLOs are not able to perform accurate inference at resolutions different from those on which they were trained, and instead they are brittle and susceptible to aliasing. To address these failure modes, we propose a simple, computationally-efficient, and data-driven multi-resolution training protocol that overcomes aliasing and that provides robust multi-resolution generalization.

Poster
Learn to Reason Efficiently with Adaptive Length-based Reward Shaping

Wei Liu, Ruochen Zhou, Yiyun Deng, Yuzhen Huang, Junteng Liu, Yuntian Deng, Yizhe Zhang, Junxian He

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Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in solving complex problems through reinforcement learning (RL), particularly by generating long reasoning traces. However, these extended outputs often exhibit substantial redundancy, which limits the efficiency of LRMs. In this paper, we investigate RL-based approaches to promote reasoning efficiency. Specifically, we first present a unified framework that formulates various efficient reasoning methods through the lens of length-based reward shaping. Building on this perspective, we propose a novel **L**ength-b**A**sed **S**t**E**p **R**eward shaping method (LASER), which employs a step function as the reward based on target length. LASER surpasses previous methods, achieving a superior trade-off between performance and efficiency. Next, we further extend LASER based on two key intuitions: (1) The reasoning behavior of the model evolves dynamically during training, necessitating reward specifications that are also adaptive and dynamic; (2) Rather than uniformly encouraging shorter or longer chains of thought (CoT), we posit that length-based reward shaping should be difficulty-aware i.e., it should penalize lengthy CoTs more for easy queries. This approach is expected to facilitate a combination of fast and slow thinking, leading to a better overall tradeoff. The resulting method is termed LASER-D (**D**ynamic and **D**ifficulty-aware). Experiments on five open-weight models from 1.5B to 32B demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances both reasoning performance and response length efficiency. For instance, LASER-D achieves a **5.3** improvement on AIME2024 while reducing token usage by **64**%. Further analysis reveals that our RL-based compression produces more concise reasoning patterns with less redundant ``self-reflections''.

Poster
WorldGym: World Model as An Environment for Policy Evaluation

Julian Hector Quevedo, Ansh Kumar Sharma, Yixiang Sun, Varad Suryavanshi, Percy Liang, Sherry Yang

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Evaluating robot control policies is difficult: real-world testing is costly, and handcrafted simulators require manual effort to improve in realism and generality. We propose a world-model-based policy evaluation environment (WorldGym), an autoregressive, action-conditioned video generation model which serves as a proxy to real world environments. Policies are evaluated via Monte Carlo rollouts in the world model, with a vision-language model providing rewards. We evaluate a set of VLA-based real-robot policies in the world model using only initial frames from real robots, and show that policy success rates within the world model highly correlate with real-world success rates. Moreoever, we show that WorldGym is able to preserve relative policy rankings across different policy versions, sizes, and training checkpoints. Due to requiring only a single start frame as input, the world model further enables efficient evaluation of robot policies' generalization ability on novel tasks and environments. We find that modern VLA-based robot policies still struggle to distinguish object shapes and can become distracted by adversarial facades of objects. While generating highly realistic object interaction remains challenging, WorldGym faithfully emulates robot motions and offers a practical starting point for safe and reproducible policy evaluation before deployment.

Poster
VCWorld: A Biological World Model for Virtual Cell Simulation

Zhijian Wei, Runze Ma, Zichen Wang, Zhongmin Li, Shuotong Song, Shuangjia Zheng

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Virtual cell modeling aims to predict cellular responses to perturbations. Existing virtual cell models rely heavily on large-scale single-cell datasets, learning explicit mappings between gene expression and perturbations. Although recent models attempt to incorporate multi-source biological information, their generalization remains constrained by data quality, coverage, and batch effects. More critically, these models often function as black boxes, offering predictions without interpretability or consistency with biological principles, which undermines their credibility in scientific research. To address these challenges, we present VCWorld, a cell-level white-box simulator that integrates structured biological knowledge with the iterative reasoning capabilities of large language models to instantiate a biological world model. VCWorld operates in a data-efficient manner to reproduce perturbation-induced signaling cascades and generates interpretable, stepwise predictions alongside explicit mechanistic hypotheses. In drug perturbation benchmarks, VCWorld achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance, and the inferred mechanistic pathways are consistent with publicly available biological evidence. Our code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/VCWorld-B970.

Poster
General Exploratory Bonus for Optimistic Exploration in RLHF

Wendi Li, Changdae Oh, Sharon Li

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Optimistic exploration is central to improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning with human feedback, yet existing exploratory bonus methods often fail to realize true optimism. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that current formulations, under KL or $\alpha$-divergence regularization, unintentionally bias exploration toward high-probability regions of the reference model, thereby reinforcing conservative behavior instead of promoting discovery of uncertain regions. To address this pitfall, we introduce the General Exploratory Bonus (GEB), a novel theoretical framework that provably satisfies the optimism principle. GEB counteracts divergence-induced bias via reference-dependent reward regulation and unifies prior heuristic bonuses as special cases, while extending naturally across the full $\alpha$-divergence family. Empirically, GEB consistently outperforms baselines on alignment tasks across multiple divergence settings and large language model backbones. These results demonstrate that GEB offers both a principled and practical solution for optimistic exploration in RLHF.

Poster
CHROMA: Consistent Harmonization of Multi-View Appearance via Bilateral Grid Prediction

Jisu Shin, Richard Shaw, Seunghyun Shin, Zhensong Zhang, Hae-Gon Jeon, Eduardo Pérez-Pellitero

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Modern camera pipelines apply extensive on-device processing, such as exposure adjustment, white balance, and color correction, which, while beneficial individually, often introduce photometric inconsistencies across views. These appearance variations violate multi-view consistency and degrade novel view synthesis. Joint optimization of scene-specific representations and per-image appearance embeddings has been proposed to address this issue, but with increased computational complexity and slower training. In this work, we propose a generalizable, feed-forward approach that predicts spatially adaptive bilateral grids to correct photometric variations in a multi-view consistent manner. Our model processes hundreds of frames in a single step, enabling efficient large-scale harmonization, and seamlessly integrates into downstream 3D reconstruction models, providing cross-scene generalization without requiring scene-specific retraining. To overcome the lack of paired data, we employ a hybrid self-supervised rendering loss leveraging 3D foundation models, improving generalization to real-world variations. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms or matches the reconstruction quality of existing scene-specific optimization methods with appearance modeling, without significantly affecting the training time of baseline 3D models.

Poster
Nudging the Boundaries of LLM Reasoning

Justin Chen, Xiangyu Peng, Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Kung-Hsiang Huang, Jiaxin Zhang, Mohit Bansal, Chien-Sheng Wu

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Current online reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms like GRPO share a key limitation in LLM reasoning: they cannot learn from problems that are "unsolvable" to the model. In other words, they can only improve performance on problems where the model is capable of exploring the correct answer. If a problem is too difficult -- such that even hundreds of attempts never produce a correct solution -- the model cannot learn from it. Consequently, the model's "upper limit" remains unchanged after RL training, even though the likelihood of solving easier, solvable problems may increase. These hard, unsolvable samples -- though potentially rich in learning signal -- cannot contribute to training, as no rollouts yield rewards and thus no gradients are produced. To unlock learning from these hard samples, we propose NuRL, a "nudging" method that aims to push the upper bound of LLM reasoning using self-generated hints, i.e., abstract cues that help reduce the problem difficulty for the model. Given a question and its gold answer, the model generates a Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and then produces a hint containing the core knowledge needed to solve the problem. During online RL training, we generate G rollouts from the base policy and use the pass rate to decide whether the hint should be injected. For hard samples with a 0% pass rate, we inject the offline-generated hint and regenerate a new batch of trajectories. This yields two benefits: (1) the hint boosts pass rates (from 0% to non-zero), thereby introducing training signals for previously unsolvable samples, and (2) the hints are self-generated (conditioned on the gold answer), avoiding distributional shift and do not rely on external models. Compared to standard GRPO, NuRL achieves consistent improvements across six diverse benchmarks and three models, while remaining complementary to test-time scaling. Notably, NuRL can raise the model's upper limit, whereas GRPO leaves pass@1024 unchanged from the base model. Furthermore, we present a systematic study of what makes an effective hint and when hints are most useful. Interestingly, the best hints are abstract and high-level -- as revealing gold answers actually hurt performance -- and are most beneficial when applied necessarily and after GRPO has converged.

Poster
A Training-Free Framework for Long Video Understanding via Video-Query-Options Similarity

Zhirong Wu, Xiaodong Wang, Langling Huang, Teng Xu, Peixi Peng

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Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and short video understanding tasks, but their performance on hour-long videos remains limited due to constraint of input token capacity. Existing approaches often require costly training procedures, hindering their adaptability to rapidly evolving MLLM architectures. In this paper, we propose a training-free framework for long video understanding, integrating three key innovations: Adaptive Frame Sampling (AFS), Dynamic Resolution Allocation (DRA), and Video-Query-Options Similarity (VQOS). AFS adaptively increases frame sampling density in highly relevant video segments to preserve critical temporal details, while DRA reduces spatial resolution in less relevant segments to suppress redundant information. VQOS enhances similarity calculation by prompting MLLMs to generate candidate answer options, fusing queries with options to refine relevance estimation. Mirroring human cognitive processes (hypothesis generation → focused verification → irrelevance filtering), our framework effectively improve model accuracy without fine-tuning. The method is implemented on LLaVA-Video and Qwen2.5-VL respectively, and experimental results show our method could achieve state-of-the-art performances over 5 mainstream benchmarks. More visualization results and code are available in the Appendix.

Poster
ST-SimDiff: Balancing Spatiotemporal Similarity and Difference for Efficient Video Understanding with MLLMs

Bingjun Luo, Tony Wang, Chaoqi Chen, Xinpeng Ding

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Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) face significant computational overhead when processing long videos due to the massive number of visual tokens required. To improve efficiency, existing methods primarily reduce redundancy by pruning or merging tokens based on importance or similarity. However, these approaches largely overlook a critical dimension of video content, i.e., changes and turning points, and they lack a collaborative model for spatio-temporal relationships. To address this, we propose a new perspective: similarity is for identifying redundancy, while difference is for capturing key events. Based on this, we designed a training-free framework named ST-SimDiff. We first construct a spatio-temporal graph from the visual tokens to uniformly model their complex associations. Subsequently, we employ a parallel dual-selection strategy: 1) similarity-based selection uses community detection to retain representative tokens, compressing static information; 2) temporal difference-based selection precisely locates content-changing points to preserve tokens that capture key dynamic shifts. This allows it to preserve both static and dynamic content with a minimal number of tokens. Extensive experiments show our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches while substantially reducing computational costs. Our code is available in [https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ST-SimDiff-7225](https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ST-SimDiff-7225).

Poster
VLBiMan: Vision-Language Anchored One-Shot Demonstration Enables Generalizable Bimanual Robotic Manipulation

Huayi Zhou, Kui Jia

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Achieving generalizable bimanual manipulation requires systems that can learn efficiently from minimal human input while adapting to real-world uncertainties and diverse embodiments. Existing approaches face a dilemma: imitation policy learning demands extensive demonstrations to cover task variations, while modular methods often lack flexibility in dynamic scenes. We introduce VLBiMan, a framework that derives reusable skills from a single human example through task-aware decomposition, preserving invariant primitives as anchors while dynamically adapting adjustable components via vision-language grounding. This adaptation mechanism resolves scene ambiguities caused by background changes, object repositioning, or visual clutter without policy retraining, leveraging semantic parsing and geometric feasibility constraints. Moreover, the system inherits human-like hybrid control capabilities, enabling mixed synchronous and asynchronous use of both arms. Extensive experiments validate VLBiMan across tool-use and multi-object tasks, demonstrating: (1) a drastic reduction in demonstration requirements compared to imitation baselines, (2) compositional generalization through atomic skill splicing for long-horizon tasks, (3) robustness to novel but semantically similar objects and external disturbances, and (4) strong cross-embodiment transfer, showing that skills learned from human demonstrations can be instantiated on different robotic platforms without retraining. By bridging human priors with vision-language anchored adaptation, our work takes a step toward practical and versatile dual-arm manipulation in unstructured settings.

Poster
Beyond English-Centric Training: How Reinforcement Learning Improves Cross-Lingual Reasoning in LLMs

Shulin Huang, Yiran Ding, Junshu Pan, Yue Zhang

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Enhancing the complex reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) attracts widespread attention. While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown superior performance for improving complex reasoning, its impact on cross-lingual generalization compared to Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) remains unexplored. We present the first systematic investigation into cross-lingual reasoning generalization of RL and SFT. Using Qwen2.5-3B-Base as our foundation model, we conduct experiments on diverse multilingual reasoning benchmarks, including math reasoning, commonsense reasoning, and scientific reasoning. Our investigation yields two significant findings: (1) Tuning with RL not only achieves higher accuracy but also demonstrates substantially stronger cross-lingual generalization capabilities compared to SFT. (2) RL training on non-English data yields better overall performance and generalization than training on English data, which is not observed with SFT. Furthermore, through comprehensive mechanistic analyses, we explore the underlying factors of RL's superiority and generalization across languages. Our results provide compelling evidence that RL enables the model with more robust reasoning strategies, offering crucial guidance for more equitable and effective multilingual reasoning.

Poster
GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Tasks

Tejal Patwardhan, Rachel Dias, Elizabeth Proehl, Grace Kim, Michele Wang, Olivia Watkins, Simon Posada Fishman, Marwan Aljubeh, Phoebe Thacker, Laurance Fauconnet, Natalie S. Kim, Samuel Miserendino, Gildas Chabot, David Li, Patrick Chao, Michael Sharman, Alexandra Barr, Amelia Glaese, Jerry Tworek

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We introduce GDPval, a benchmark evaluating AI model capabilities on real-world economically valuable knowledge-work tasks. GDPval covers the majority of Department of Labor O*NET Work Activities for 44 occupations across the top 9 sectors contributing to U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Tasks are constructed from the representative work of industry professionals with an average of 14 years of experience. We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality. We analyze the potential for frontier models, when paired with human oversight, to perform GDPval tasks cheaper and faster than unaided experts. We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval. Finally, we open-source a gold subset of 220 tasks and provide a public automated grading service to facilitate future research in understanding real-world model capabilities.

Poster
Breaking the Correlation Plateau: On the Optimization and Capacity Limits of Attention-Based Regressors

Jingquan Yan, Yuwei Miao, Peiran Yu, Junzhou Huang

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Attention-based regression models are often trained by jointly optimizing Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) loss, emphasizing the magnitude of errors and the order or shape of targets, respectively. A common but poorly understood phenomenon during training is the *PCC plateau*: PCC stops improving early in training, even as MSE continues to decrease. We provide the first rigorous theoretical analysis of this behavior, revealing fundamental limitations in both optimization dynamics and model capacity. First, in regard to the flattened PCC curve, we uncover a critical conflict where lowering MSE (magnitude matching) can *paradoxically* suppress the PCC gradient (shape matching). This issue is exacerbated by the softmax attention mechanism, particularly when the data to be aggregated is highly homogeneous. Second, we identify a limitation in the model capacity: we derived a PCC improvement limit for *any* convex aggregator (including the softmax attention), showing that the convex hull of the inputs strictly bounds the achievable PCC gain. We demonstrate that data homogeneity intensifies both limitations. Motivated by these insights, we propose the Extrapolative Correlation Attention (ECA), which incorporates novel, theoretically-motivated mechanisms to improve the PCC optimization and extrapolate beyond the convex hull. Across diverse benchmarks, including challenging homogeneous data setting, ECA consistently breaks the PCC plateau, achieving significant improvements in correlation without compromising MSE performance.

Poster