ICLR 2026 Papers

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as a promising framework for uncertainty estimation in classification tasks by modeling predictive uncertainty with a Dirichlet prior. Despite its empirical success, prior work has primarily focused on the probabilistic properties of the Dirichlet distribution, leaving the role of optimization dynamics during training underexplored. In this paper, we revisit EDL through the lens of optimization and establish a non-trivial connection: minimizing the expected cross-entropy loss over the Dirichlet prior implicitly encourages solutions akin to multi-class Support Vector Machines, maximizing decision margins. Motivated by this observation, we introduce the \emph{optimization-consistency principle}, which deems an uncertainty measure valid if its value decreases as samples approach the global optimum of the training objective. This principle provides a new criterion for evaluating and designing uncertainty measures that are consistent with the optimization dynamics. Building on this foundation, we further propose a novel measure, \emph{Margin-aware Predictive Uncertainty (MPU)}, which directly captures the separation between target and non-target evidence. Extensive experiments on out-of-distribution detection and classification-with-rejection benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

The use of target networks is a popular approach for estimating value functions in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). While effective, the target network remains a compromise solution that preserves stability at the cost of slowly moving targets, thus delaying learning. Conversely, using the online network as a bootstrapped target is intuitively appealing, albeit well-known to lead to unstable learning. In this work, we aim to obtain the best out of both worlds by introducing a novel update rule that computes the target using the **MIN**imum estimate between the **T**arget and **O**nline network, giving rise to our method, **MINTO**. Through this simple, yet effective modification, we show that MINTO enables faster and stable value function learning, by mitigating the potential overestimation bias of using the online network for bootstrapping. Notably, MINTO can be seamlessly integrated into a wide range of value-based and actor-critic algorithms with a negligible cost. We evaluate MINTO extensively across diverse benchmarks, spanning online and offline RL, as well as discrete and continuous action spaces. Across all benchmarks, MINTO consistently improves performance, demonstrating its broad applicability and effectiveness.

Small Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide a computationally efficient alternative to larger models, at the cost of weaker generalization abilities and downstream task performance. These shortcomings could be addressed by test-time scaling techniques, but existing methods are typically computationally demanding, contradicting the resource-efficient design goals of small models. To address these limitations, we propose two novel and efficient test-time scaling strategies that leverage the model-internal features rather than external supervision: (i) Test-Time Augmentation (TTAug), which generates multiple augmented inputs and aggregates outputs at the token level without parameter updates, and (ii) Test-Time Adaptation (TTAdapt), which adapts model parameters during inference using consensus-based pseudolabels from TTAug. Through extensive experiments across nine benchmarks, we demonstrate consistent performance improvements while maintaining computational efficiency suitable for resource-constrained environments. The generality of our approach is demonstrated both within models at different scales and across different VLMs without additional tuning.

Videos contain rich information but also high redundancy, as consecutive frames often share similar backgrounds and predictable motions. Current video-language models (VLMs) are unable to exploit this redundancy and therefore perform a significant amount of superfluous computation, processing thousands of patch tokens even when little new information is present. What is missing is an on-the-fly, model-agnostic signal of temporal predictability to decide whether tokens carry unpredictable information that merits computation. We propose SURGE, a training-free and backbone-agnostic method that measures surprise in token space. Surprise scores are defined by the prediction error of each token from its recent history; high-surprise tokens are retained, while predictable ones are pruned. Aggregating scores over time produces a surprise curve that highlights key events, which can be further refined with CLIP-based query relevance to form a compact spatio-temporal mask. Experiments on multiple video understanding benchmarks show that SURGE reduces tokens by up to 7$\times$ and prefill cost by 86–98\%, while maintaining accuracy within $\pm$1 point of full-token baselines. By aligning computation with novelty, SURGE enables video VLMs to handle long contexts efficiently and without retraining.

This paper introduces a methodology for anomaly detection in time series using Time Series Foundation Models (TFMs). While TFMs have achieved strong success in forecasting, their role in anomaly detection remains underexplored. We identify two key challenges when applying TFMs to reconstruction-based anomaly detection and propose solutions. The first challenge is overgeneralization, where TFMs reconstruct both normal and abnormal data with similar accuracy, masking true anomalies. We find that this effect often occurs in data with strong low-frequency components. To address it, we propose a complexity metric, $\alpha$, that reflects how difficult the data is for TFMs and design a Complexity-Aware Ensemble (CAE) that adaptively balances TFMs with a statistical model. The second challenge is overstationarization, caused by instance normalization layers that improve forecasting accuracy but remove essential statistical features such as mean and variance, which are critical for anomaly detection. We resolve this by reintroducing these features into the reconstruction process without retraining the TFMs. Experiments on 23 univariate benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms both deep learning and statistical baselines. Furthermore, we show that our complexity-based metric, $\alpha$, provides a theoretical foundation for improved anomaly detection, and we briefly explore prediction-based anomaly detection using TFMs.

We frame spatial supersensing in video as an overarching goal for multimodal intelligence and argue that progress requires a shift from long-context brute force to predictive sensing. Using a four-level taxonomy: semantic perception, streaming event cognition, implicit 3D spatial cognition, and predictive world modeling, we audit existing benchmarks and show they focus heavily on the first tier, with only partial coverage of streaming and spatial cognition, and almost never test true world modeling. To ground these gaps, we introduce VSI-Super, a two-part benchmark for continual spatial sensing: VSO (long-horizon spatial observation and recall) and VSC (continual counting under changing viewpoints and scenes). These tasks admit arbitrarily long video inputs and are specifically built so that simply scaling tokens or context length isn’t enough. Within the current paradigm, we push spatial cognition by curating VSI-590K and training a new family of video MLLMs that deliver 30% absolute on VSI-Bench without sacrificing general semantic perception. Yet these models still underperform on VSI-Super, exposing a paradigm gap. We then prototype predictive sensing: a self-supervised next latent-frame predictor whose surprise (prediction error) drives long-horizon memory and event segmentation. On VSI-Super, this approach substantially outperforms leading video MLLMs, evidencing that advancing spatial supersensing requires models that not only see but also anticipate, select, and organize experience.

Denoising diffusions sample from a probability distribution $\mu$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ by constructing a stochastic process $(\hat{\mathbf{x}}_t:t\ge 0)$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that $\hat{\mathbf{x}}_0$ is easy to sample, but the distribution of $\hat{\mathbf{x}}_T$ at large $T$ approximates $\mu$. The drift $\mathbf{m}:\mathbb{R}^{d}\times\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}^d$ of this diffusion process is learned by minimizing a score-matching objective. Is every probability distribution $\mu$, for which sampling is tractable, also amenable to sampling via diffusions? We address this question by studying its relation to information-computation gaps in statistical estimation. Earlier work in this area constructs broad families of distributions $\mu$ for which sampling is easy, but approximating the drift $\mathbf{m}(\mathbf{y},t)$ is conjectured to be intractable, and provides rigorous evidence for intractability. We prove that this implies a failure of sampling via diffusions. First, there exist drifts whose score matching objective is superpolynomially close to the optimum value (among polynomial time drifts) and yet yield samples with distribution that is very far from the target one. Second, any polynomial-time drift that is also Lipschitz continuous results in equally incorrect sampling. We instantiate our results on the toy problem of sampling a sparse low-rank matrix, and further demonstrate empirically the failure of diffusion-based sampling. Our work implies that caution should be used in adopting diffusion sampling when other approaches are available.

Zero-sum and non-zero-sum (aka general-sum) games are relevant in a wide range of applications. While general non-zero-sum games are computationally hard, researchers focus on the special class of monotone games for gradient-based algorithms. However, there is a substantial gap between the gradient complexity of monotone zero-sum and monotone general-sum games. Moreover, in many practical scenarios of games the zero-sum assumption needs to be relaxed. To address these issues, we define a new intermediate class of monotone near-zero-sum games that contains monotone zero-sum games as a special case. Then, we present a novel algorithm that transforms the near-zero-sum games into a sequence of zero-sum subproblems, improving the gradient-based complexity for the class. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of this new class to model practical scenarios of games motivated from the literature.

Video-conditioned 4D shape generation aims to recover time-varying 3D geometry and view-consistent appearance directly from an input video. In this work, we introduce a native video-to-4D shape generation framework that synthesizes a single dynamic 3D representation end-to-end from the video. Our framework introduces three key components based on large-scale pre-trained 3D models: (i) a temporal attention that conditions generation on all frames while producing a time-indexed dynamic representation; (ii) a time-aware point sampling and 4D latent anchoring that promote temporally consistent geometry and texture; and (iii) noise sharing across frames to enhance temporal stability. Our method accurately captures non-rigid motion, volume changes, and even topological transitions without per-frame optimization. Across diverse in-the-wild videos, our method improves robustness and perceptual fidelity and reduces failure modes compared with the baselines.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is used to specialize model behavior by training weights to produce intended target responses for queries. In contrast, In-Context Learning (ICL) adapts models during inference with instructions or demonstrations in the prompt. ICL can offer better generalizability and more calibrated responses compared to SFT in data scarce settings, at the cost of more inference compute. In this work, we ask the question: \textit{Can ICL's internal computations be used to improve the qualities of SFT?} We first show that ICL and SFT produce distinct activation patterns, indicating that the two methods achieve adaptation through different functional mechanisms. Motivated by this observation and to use ICL's rich functionality, we introduce \textbf{I}CL \textbf{A}ctivation \textbf{A}lignment (\act), a self-distillation technique which aims to replicate ICL's activation patterns in SFT models and incentivizes ICL-like internal reasoning. Performing \act as a priming step before SFT significantly improves the accuracy and calibration of model outputs, as shown by our extensive empirical results on 12 popular benchmarks and two model families. This finding is not only practically useful, but also offers a conceptual window into the inner mechanics of model adaptation.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often produce overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, undermining their reliability in open-world environments. Singularities in semi-discrete optimal transport (OT) mark regions of semantic ambiguity, where classifiers are particularly prone to unwarranted high-confidence predictions. Motivated by this observation, we propose a principled framework to mitigate OOD overconfidence by leveraging the geometry of OT-induced singular boundaries. Specifically, we formulate an OT problem between a continuous base distribution and the latent embeddings of training data, and identify the resulting singular boundaries. By sampling near these boundaries, we construct a class of OOD inputs, termed optimal transport-induced OOD samples (OTIS), which are geometrically grounded and inherently semantically ambiguous. During training, a confidence suppression loss is applied to OTIS to guide the model toward more calibrated predictions in structurally uncertain regions. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly alleviates OOD overconfidence and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

We present SpinBench, a cognitively grounded diagnostic benchmark for evaluating spatial reasoning in vision language models (VLMs). SpinBench is designed around the core challenge of spatial reasoning: perspective taking, the ability to reason about how scenes and object relations change under viewpoint transformation. Since perspective taking requires multiple cognitive capabilities, such as recognizing objects across views, relative positions grounding, and mentally simulating transformations, SpinBench introduces a set of fine-grained diagnostic categories. Our categories target translation, rotation, object relative pose, and viewpoint change, and are progressively structured so that single-object simpler tasks scaffold toward the most demanding multi-object perspective-taking setting. We evaluate 43 state-of-the-art VLMs, both proprietary and open source. Results reveal systematic weaknesses: strong egocentric bias, poor rotational understanding, and inconsistencies under symmetrical and syntactic reformulations. Scaling analysis shows both smooth improvements and emergent capabilities. While human subjects achieve high accuracy (91.2\%), task difficulty as measured by human response time shows strong correlation with VLM accuracy, indicating that SpinBench captures spatial reasoning challenges shared across humans and VLMs. Together, our findings highlight the need for structured, cognitively inspired diagnostic tools to advance spatial reasoning in multimodal foundation models. Our website can be found [here](https://spinbench25.github.io/).

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the **magnitude** of these updates, largely overlooking their **direction**. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference $\Delta\log p$ between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that $\Delta\log p$ more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (e.g., divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a *test-time extrapolation* method that amplifies the policy along the learned $\Delta\log p$ direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a *training-time reweighting* method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher $\Delta\log p$) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.

Recent advances in diffusion models have significantly improved text-to-video generation, enabling personalized content creation with fine-grained control over both foreground and background elements. However, precise face–attribute alignment across subjects remains challenging, as existing methods lack explicit mechanisms to ensure intra-group consistency. Addressing this gap requires both explicit modeling strategies and face-attribute-aware data resources. We therefore propose $\textbf{\textit{Lumos{X}}}$, a framework that advances both data and model design. On the data side, a tailored collection pipeline orchestrates captions and visual cues from independent videos, while multimodal large language models (MLLMs) infer and assign subject-specific dependencies. These extracted relational priors impose a finer-grained structure that amplifies the expressive control of personalized video generation and enables the construction of a comprehensive benchmark. On the modeling side, Relational Self-Attention and Relational Cross-Attention intertwine position-aware embeddings with refined attention dynamics to inscribe explicit subject–attribute dependencies, enforcing disciplined intra-group cohesion and amplifying the separation between distinct subject clusters. Comprehensive evaluations on our benchmark demonstrate that $\textit{LumosX}$ achieves state-of-the-art performance in fine-grained, identity-consistent, and semantically aligned personalized multi-subject video generation.

Real-world time series data are inherently multivariate, often exhibiting complex inter-channel dependencies. Each channel is typically sampled at its own period and is prone to missing values due to various practical and operational constraints. These characteristics pose three fundamental challenges involving channel dependency, sampling asynchrony, and missingness, all of which must be addressed simultaneously to enable robust and reliable forecasting in practical settings. However, existing architectures typically address only parts of these challenges in isolation and still rely on simplifying assumptions, leaving unresolved the combined challenges of asynchronous channel sampling, test-time missing blocks, and intricate inter-channel dependencies. To bridge this gap, we propose ChannelTokenFormer, a Transformer-based forecasting framework with a flexible architecture designed to explicitly capture cross-channel interactions, accommodate channel-wise asynchronous sampling, and effectively handle missing values. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets reflecting practical settings, along with one private real-world industrial dataset, demonstrate the superior robustness and accuracy of ChannelTokenFormer under challenging real-world conditions.

Joint-embedding self-supervised learning (SSL), the key paradigm for unsupervised representation learning from visual data, learns from invariances between semantically-related data pairs. We study the one-to-many mapping problem in SSL, where each datum may be mapped to multiple valid targets. This arises when data pairs come from naturally occurring generative processes, e.g., successive video frames. We show that existing methods struggle to flexibly capture this conditional uncertainty. As a remedy, we introduce a variational distribution that models this uncertainty in the latent space, and derive a lower bound on the pairwise mutual information. We also propose a simpler variant of the same idea using sparsity regularization. Our model, AdaSSL, applies to both contrastive and predictive SSL methods, and we empirically show its versatility on identifiability, generalization, fine-grained image understanding, and world modeling on videos.

Oversmoothing is a fundamental challenge in graph neural networks (GNNs): as the number of layers increases, node embeddings become increasingly similar, and model performance drops sharply. Traditionally, oversmoothing has been quantified using metrics that measure the similarity of neighbouring node features, such as the Dirichlet energy. We argue that these metrics have critical limitations and fail to reliably capture oversmoothing in realistic scenarios. For instance, they provide meaningful insights only for very deep networks, while typical GNNs show a performance drop already with as few as 10 layers. As an alternative, we propose measuring oversmoothing by examining the numerical or effective rank of the feature representations. We provide extensive numerical evaluation across diverse graph architectures and datasets to show that rank-based metrics consistently capture oversmoothing, whereas energy-based metrics often fail. Notably, we reveal that drops in the rank align closely with performance degradation, even in scenarios where energy metrics remain unchanged. Along with the experimental evaluation, we provide theoretical support for this approach, clarifying why Dirichlet-like measures may fail to capture performance drop and proving that the numerical rank of feature representations collapses to one for a broad family of GNN architectures.

We present Segment Anything Model (SAM) 3, a unified model that detects, segments, and tracks objects in images and videos based on concept prompts, which we define as either short noun phrases (e.g., “yellow school bus”), image exemplars, or a combination of both. Promptable Concept Segmentation (PCS) takes such prompts and returns segmentation masks and unique identities for all matching object instances. To advance PCS, we build a scalable data engine that produces a high-quality dataset with 4M unique concept labels, including hard negatives, across images and videos. Our model consists of a vision backbone shared between an image-level detector and a memory-based video tracker. Recognition and localization are decoupled with a presence head, which significantly boosts detection accuracy. SAM 3 delivers a 2x gain over existing systems in both image and video PCS, and improves previous SAM capabilities in interactive visual segmentation tasks. We open source SAM 3 along with our new Segment Anything with Concepts (SA-Co) benchmark.

The advent of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has significantly advanced end-to-end autonomous driving, demonstrating powerful reasoning abilities for high-level behavior planning tasks. However, existing methods are often constrained by a passive perception paradigm, relying solely on text-based reasoning. This passivity restricts the model’s capacity to actively seek crucial visual evidence when faced with uncertainty. To address this, we introduce DriveAgent-R1, an autonomous driving agent capable of active perception for planning. In complex scenarios, DriveAgent-R1 proactively invokes tools to perform visual reasoning, firmly grounding its decisions in visual evidence, thereby enhancing both interpretability and reliability. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid thinking framework, inspired by human driver cognitive patterns, allowing the agent to adaptively switch between efficient text-only reasoning and robust tool-augmented visual reasoning based on scene complexity. This capability is cultivated through a three-stage progressive training strategy, featuring a core Cascaded Reinforcement Learning (Cascaded RL) phase. Extensive experiments on the Drive-Internal dataset, which is rich in long-tail scenarios, and the public nuScenes dataset show that, with only 3B parameters, DriveAgent-R1 achieves competitive performance comparable to top closed model systems such as GPT-5 and to human driving proficiency while remaining deployment-friendly, offering a proven path toward building more intelligent autonomous driving systems.