ICLR 2025 Papers

International Conference on Learning Representations

Decision breakdown

3,703papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    2135.8%
  • Spotlight
    38010.3%
  • Poster
    3,11084.0%

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Persistent Pre-training Poisoning of LLMs

Yiming Zhang, Javier Rando, Ivan Evtimov, Jianfeng Chi, Eric Michael Smith, Nicholas Carlini, Florian Tramèr, Daphne Ippolito

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Large language models are pre-trained on uncurated text datasets consisting of trillions of tokens scraped from the Web. Prior work has shown that: (1) web-scraped pre-training datasets can be practically poisoned by malicious actors; and (2) adversaries can compromise language models after poisoning fine-tuning datasets. Our work evaluates for the first time whether language models can also be \emph{compromised during pre-training}, with a focus on the persistence of pre-training attacks after models are fine-tuned as helpful and harmless chatbots (i.e., after SFT and DPO). We pre-train a series of LLMs from scratch to measure the impact of a potential poisoning adversary under four different attack objectives (denial-of-service, belief manipulation, jailbreaking, and prompt stealing), and across a wide range of model sizes (from 600M to 7B). Our main result is that poisoning only 0.1% of a model's pre-training dataset is sufficient for three out of four attacks to measurably persist through post-training. Moreover, simple attacks like denial-of-service persist through post-training with a poisoning rate of only 0.001%.

Poster
BadRobot: Jailbreaking Embodied LLM Agents in the Physical World

Hangtao Zhang, Chenyu Zhu, Xianlong Wang, Ziqi Zhou, Changgan Yin, Minghui Li, Lulu Xue, Yichen Wang, Shengshan Hu, Aishan Liu, Peijin Guo, Leo Yu Zhang

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Embodied AI represents systems where AI is integrated into physical entities. Multimodal Large Language Model (LLM), which exhibits powerful language understanding abilities, has been extensively employed in embodied AI by facilitating sophisticated task planning. However, a critical safety issue remains overlooked: could these embodied LLMs perpetrate harmful behaviors? In response, we introduce BadRobot, the first attack paradigm designed to jailbreak robotic manipulation, making embodied LLMs violate safety and ethical constraints through typical voice-based user-system interactions. Specifically, three vulnerabilities are exploited to achieve this type of attack: (i) manipulation of LLMs within robotic systems, (ii) misalignment between linguistic outputs and physical actions, and (iii) unintentional hazardous behaviors caused by world knowledge's flaws. Furthermore, we construct a benchmark of various malicious physical action queries to evaluate BadRobot's attack performance. Based on this benchmark, extensive experiments against existing prominent embodied LLM frameworks (e.g., Voxposer, Code as Policies, and ProgPrompt) demonstrate the effectiveness of our BadRobot. We emphasize that addressing this emerging vulnerability is crucial for the secure deployment of LLMs in robotics. Warning: This paper contains harmful AI-generated language and aggressive actions.

Poster
Disentangled Representation Learning with the Gromov-Monge Gap

Théo Uscidda, Luca Eyring, Karsten Roth, Fabian J Theis, Zeynep Akata, marco cuturi

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Learning disentangled representations from unlabelled data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. Solving it may unlock other problems, such as generalization, interpretability, or fairness. Although remarkably challenging to solve in theory, disentanglement is often achieved in practice through prior matching. Furthermore, recent works have shown that prior matching approaches can be enhanced by leveraging geometrical considerations, e.g., by learning representations that preserve geometric features of the data, such as distances or angles between points. However, matching the prior while preserving geometric features is challenging, as a mapping that *fully* preserves these features while aligning the data distribution with the prior does not exist in general. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach to disentangled representation learning based on quadratic optimal transport. We formulate the problem using Gromov-Monge maps that transport one distribution onto another with minimal distortion of predefined geometric features, preserving them *as much as can be achieved*. To compute such maps, we propose the Gromov-Monge-Gap (GMG), a regularizer quantifying whether a map moves a reference distribution with minimal geometry distortion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for disentanglement across four standard benchmarks, outperforming other methods leveraging geometric considerations.

Poster
Diffusion Bridge Implicit Models

Kaiwen Zheng, Guande He, Jianfei Chen, Fan Bao, Jun Zhu

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Denoising diffusion bridge models (DDBMs) are a powerful variant of diffusion models for interpolating between two arbitrary paired distributions given as endpoints. Despite their promising performance in tasks like image translation, DDBMs require a computationally intensive sampling process that involves the simulation of a (stochastic) differential equation through hundreds of network evaluations. In this work, we take the first step in fast sampling of DDBMs without extra training, motivated by the well-established recipes in diffusion models. We generalize DDBMs via a class of non-Markovian diffusion bridges defined on the discretized timesteps concerning sampling, which share the same marginal distributions and training objectives, give rise to generative processes ranging from stochastic to deterministic, and result in diffusion bridge implicit models (DBIMs). DBIMs are not only up to 25$\times$ faster than the vanilla sampler of DDBMs but also induce a novel, simple, and insightful form of ordinary differential equation (ODE) which inspires high-order numerical solvers. Moreover, DBIMs maintain the generation diversity in a distinguished way, by using a booting noise in the initial sampling step, which enables faithful encoding, reconstruction, and semantic interpolation in image translation tasks. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/thu-ml/DiffusionBridge}.

Poster
Swiss Army Knife: Synergizing Biases in Knowledge from Vision Foundation Models for Multi-Task Learning

Yuxiang Lu, Shengcao Cao, Yu-Xiong Wang

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Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) have demonstrated outstanding performance on numerous downstream tasks. However, due to their inherent representation biases originating from different training paradigms, VFMs exhibit advantages and disadvantages across distinct vision tasks. Although amalgamating the strengths of multiple VFMs for downstream tasks is an intuitive strategy, effectively exploiting these biases remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel and versatile "Swiss Army Knife" (SAK) solution, which adaptively distills knowledge from a committee of VFMs to enhance multi-task learning. Unlike existing methods that use a single backbone for knowledge transfer, our approach preserves the unique representation bias of each teacher by collaborating the lightweight Teacher-Specific Adapter Path modules with the Teacher-Agnostic Stem. Through dynamic selection and combination of representations with Mixture-of-Representations Routers, our SAK is capable of synergizing the complementary strengths of multiple VFMs. Extensive experiments show that our SAK remarkably outperforms prior state of the arts in multi-task learning by 10% on the NYUD-v2 benchmark, while also providing a flexible and robust framework that can readily accommodate more advanced model designs.

Poster
A Meta-Learning Approach to Bayesian Causal Discovery

Anish Dhir, Matthew Ashman, James Requeima, Mark van der Wilk

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Discovering a unique causal structure is difficult due to both inherent identifiability issues, and the consequences of finite data. As such, uncertainty over causal structures, such as those obtained from a Bayesian posterior, are often necessary for downstream tasks. Finding an accurate approximation to this posterior is challenging, due to the large number of possible causal graphs, as well as the difficulty in the subproblem of finding posteriors over the functional relationships of the causal edges. Recent works have used Bayesian meta learning to view the problem of posterior estimation as a supervised learning task. Yet, these methods are limited as they cannot reliably sample from the posterior over causal structures and fail to encode key properties of the posterior, such as correlation between edges and permutation equivariance with respect to nodes. To address these limitations, we propose a Bayesian meta learning model that allows for sampling causal structures from the posterior and encodes these key properties. We compare our meta-Bayesian causal discovery against existing Bayesian causal discovery methods, demonstrating the advantages of directly learning a posterior over causal structure.

Poster
TweedieMix: Improving Multi-Concept Fusion for Diffusion-based Image/Video Generation

Gihyun Kwon, Jong Chul Ye

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Despite significant advancements in customizing text-to-image and video generation models, generating images and videos that effectively integrate multiple personalized concepts remains challenging. To address this, we present TweedieMix, a novel method for composing customized diffusion models during the inference phase. By analyzing the properties of reverse diffusion sampling, our approach divides the sampling process into two stages. During the initial steps, we apply a multiple object-aware sampling technique to ensure the inclusion of the desired target objects. In the later steps, we blend the appearances of the custom concepts in the de-noised image space using Tweedie's formula. Our results demonstrate that TweedieMix can generate multiple personalized concepts with higher fidelity than existing methods. Moreover, our framework can be effortlessly extended to image-to-video diffusion models by extending the residual layer's features across frames}, enabling the generation of videos that feature multiple personalized concepts.

Poster
Learning Neural Networks with Distribution Shift: Efficiently Certifiable Guarantees

Gautam Chandrasekaran, Adam Klivans, Lin Lin Lee, Konstantinos Stavropoulos

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We give the first provably efficient algorithms for learning neural networks with respect to distribution shift. We work in the Testable Learning with Distribution Shift framework (TDS learning) of Klivans et al. (2024), where the learner receives labeled examples from a training distribution and unlabeled examples from a test distribution and must either output a hypothesis with low test error or reject if distribution shift is detected. No assumptions are made on the test distribution. All prior work in TDS learning focuses on classification, while here we must handle the setting of nonconvex regression. Our results apply to real-valued networks with arbitrary Lipschitz activations and work whenever the training distribution has strictly sub-exponential tails. For training distributions that are bounded and hypercontractive, we give a fully polynomial-time algorithm for TDS learning one hidden-layer networks with sigmoid activations. We achieve this by importing classical kernel methods into the TDS framework using data-dependent feature maps and a type of kernel matrix that couples samples from both train and test distributions.

Poster
Filtered not Mixed: Filtering-Based Online Gating for Mixture of Large Language Models

Raeid Saqur, Anastasis Kratsios, Florian Krach, Yannick Limmer, Blanka Horvath, Frank Rudzicz

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We propose MoE-F — a formalized mechanism for combining N pre-trained expert Large Language Models (LLMs) in online time-series prediction tasks by adaptively forecasting the best weighting of LLM predictions at every time step. Our mechanism leverages the conditional information in each expert's running performance to forecast the best combination of LLMs for predicting the time series in its next step. Diverging from static (learned) Mixture of Experts (MoE) methods, our approach employs time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts. By framing the expert selection problem as a finite state-space, continuous-time Hidden Markov model (HMM), we can leverage the Wohman-Shiryaev filter. Our approach first constructs N parallel filters corresponding to each of the N individual LLMs. Each filter proposes its best combination of LLMs, given the information that they have access to. Subsequently, the N filter outputs are optimally aggregated to maximize their robust predictive power, and this update is computed efficiently via a closed-form expression, thus generating our ensemble predictor. Our contributions are: - **(I)** the MoE-F algorithm — deployable as a plug-and-play filtering harness, - **(II)** theoretical optimality guarantees of the proposed filtering-based gating algorithm (via optimality guarantees for its parallel Bayesian filtering and its robust aggregation steps), and - **(III)** empirical evaluation and ablative results using state-of-the-art foundational and MoE LLMs on a real-world _Financial Market Movement_ task where MoE-F attains a remarkable 17% absolute and 48.5% relative F1 measure improvement over the next best performing individual LLM expert predicting short-horizon market movement based on streaming news. Further, we provide empirical evidence of substantial performance gains in applying MoE-F over specialized models in the _long-horizon time-series forecasting_ domain. Code available on github: https://github.com/raeidsaqur/moe-f

Poster
Looking Inward: Language Models Can Learn About Themselves by Introspection

Felix Jedidja Binder, James Chua, Tomek Korbak, Henry Sleight, John Hughes, Robert Long, Ethan Perez, Miles Turpin, Owain Evans

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Humans acquire knowledge by observing the external world, but also by introspection. Introspection gives a person privileged access to their current state of mind (e.g. thoughts and feelings) that are not accessible to external observers. Do LLMs have this introspective capability of privileged access? If they do, this would show that LLMs can acquire knowledge not contained in or inferable from training data. We investigate LLMs predicting properties of their own behavior in hypothetical situations. If a model M1 has this capability, it should outperform a different model M2 in predicting M1's behavior—even if M2 is trained on M1's ground-truth behavior. The idea is that M1 has privileged access to its own behavioral tendencies, and this enables it to predict itself better than M2 (even if M2 is generally stronger). In experiments with GPT-4, GPT-4o, and Llama-3 models, we find that the model M1 outperforms M2 in predicting itself, providing evidence for privileged access. Further experiments and ablations provide additional evidence. Our results show that LLMs can offer reliable self-information independent of external data in certain domains. By demonstrating this, we pave the way for further work on introspection in more practical domains, which would have significant implications for model transparency and explainability. However, while we successfully show introspective capabilities in simple tasks, we are unsuccessful on more complex tasks or those requiring out-of-distribution generalization.

Poster
DiffSplat: Repurposing Image Diffusion Models for Scalable Gaussian Splat Generation

Chenguo Lin, Panwang Pan, Bangbang Yang, Zeming Li, Yadong Mu

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Recent advancements in 3D content generation from text or a single image struggle with limited high-quality 3D datasets and inconsistency from 2D multi-view generation. We introduce DiffSplat, a novel 3D generative framework that natively generates 3D Gaussian splats by taming large-scale text-to-image diffusion models. It differs from previous 3D generative models by effectively utilizing web-scale 2D priors while maintaining 3D consistency in a unified model. To bootstrap the training, a lightweight reconstruction model is proposed to instantly produce multi-view Gaussian splat grids for scalable dataset curation. In conjunction with the regular diffusion loss on these grids, a 3D rendering loss is introduced to facilitate 3D coherence across arbitrary views. The compatibility with image diffusion models enables seamless adaptions of numerous techniques for image generation to the 3D realm. Extensive experiments reveal the superiority of DiffSplat in text- and image-conditioned generation tasks and downstream applications. Thorough ablation studies validate the efficacy of each critical design choice and provide insights into the underlying mechanism.

Poster
Mitigating Parameter Interference in Model Merging via Sharpness-Aware Fine-Tuning

Yeoreum Lee, Jinwook Jung, Sungyong Baik

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Large-scale deep learning models with a pretraining-finetuning paradigm have led to a surge of numerous task-specific models fine-tuned from a common pre-trained model. Recently, several research efforts have been made on merging these large models into a single multi-task model, particularly with simple arithmetic on parameters. Such merging methodology faces a central challenge: interference between model parameters fine-tuned on different tasks. Few recent works have focused on designing a new fine-tuning scheme that can lead to small parameter interference, however at the cost of the performance of each task-specific fine-tuned model and thereby limiting that of a merged model. To improve the performance of a merged model, we note that a fine-tuning scheme should aim for (1) smaller parameter interference and (2) better performance of each fine-tuned model on the corresponding task. In this work, we aim to design a new fine-tuning objective function to work towards these two goals. In the course of this process, we find such objective function to be strikingly similar to sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) objective function, which aims to achieve generalization by finding flat minima. Drawing upon our observation, we propose to fine-tune pre-trained models via sharpness-aware minimization. The experimental and theoretical results showcase the effectiveness and orthogonality of our proposed approach, improving performance upon various merging and fine-tuning methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/baiklab/SAFT-Merge.

Poster
Offline RL with Smooth OOD Generalization in Convex Hull and its Neighborhood

Qingmao Yao, Zhichao Lei, Tianyuan Chen, Ziyue Yuan, Xuefan Chen, Jianxiang Liu, Faguo Wu, Xiao Zhang

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Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) struggles with distributional shifts, leading to the $Q$-value overestimation for out-of-distribution (OOD) actions. Existing methods address this issue by imposing constraints; however, they often become overly conservative when evaluating OOD regions, which constrains the $Q$-function generalization. This over-constraint issue results in poor $Q$-value estimation and hinders policy improvement. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to achieve better $Q$-value estimation by enhancing $Q$-function generalization in OOD regions within Convex Hull and its Neighborhood (CHN). Under the safety generalization guarantees of the CHN, we propose the Smooth Bellman Operator (SBO), which updates OOD $Q$-values by smoothing them with neighboring in-sample $Q$-values. We theoretically show that SBO approximates true $Q$-values for both in-sample and OOD actions within the CHN. Our practical algorithm, Smooth Q-function OOD Generalization (SQOG), empirically alleviates the over-constraint issue, achieving near-accurate $Q$-value estimation. On the D4RL benchmarks, SQOG outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in both performance and computational efficiency. Code is available at <https://github.com/yqpqry/SQOG>.

Poster
How Does Vision-Language Adaptation Impact the Safety of Vision Language Models?

Seongyun Lee, Geewook Kim, Jiyeon Kim, Hyunji Lee, Hoyeon Chang, Sue Hyun Park, Minjoon Seo

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Vision-Language adaptation (VL adaptation) transforms Large Language Models (LLMs) into Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) for multimodal tasks, but this process often compromises the inherent safety capabilities embedded in the original LLMs. Despite potential harmfulness due to weakened safety measures, in-depth analysis on the effects of VL adaptation on safety remains under-explored. This study examines how VL adaptation influences safety and evaluates the impact of safety fine-tuning methods. Our analysis reveals that safety degradation occurs during VL adaptation, even when the training data is safe. While safety tuning techniques like supervised fine-tuning with safety datasets or reinforcement learning from human feedback mitigate some risks, they still lead to safety degradation and a reduction in helpfulness due to over-rejection issues. Further analysis of internal model weights suggests that VL adaptation may impact certain safety-related layers, potentially lowering overall safety levels. Additionally, our findings demonstrate that the objectives of VL adaptation and safety tuning are divergent, which often results in their simultaneous application being suboptimal. To address this, we suggest the weight merging approach as an optimal solution effectively reducing safety degradation while maintaining helpfulness. These insights help guide the development of more reliable and secure LVLMs for real-world applications.

Poster
Multi-Resolution Decomposable Diffusion Model for Non-Stationary Time Series Anomaly Detection

Guojin Zhong, pan wang, Jin Yuan, Zhiyong Li, Long Chen

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Recently, generative models have shown considerable promise in unsupervised time series anomaly detection. Nonetheless, the task of effectively capturing complex temporal patterns and minimizing false alarms becomes increasingly challenging when dealing with non-stationary time series, characterized by continuously fluctuating statistical attributes and joint distributions. To confront these challenges, we underscore the benefits of multi-resolution modeling, which improves the ability to distinguish between anomalies and non-stationary behaviors by leveraging correlations across various resolution scales. In response, we introduce a **M**ulti-Res**o**lution **De**composable Diffusion **M**odel (MODEM), which integrates a coarse-to-fine diffusion paradigm with a frequency-enhanced decomposable network to adeptly navigate the intricacies of non-stationarity. Technically, the coarse-to-fine diffusion model embeds cross-resolution correlations into the forward process to optimize diffusion transitions mathematically. It then innovatively employs low-resolution recovery to guide the reverse trajectories of high-resolution series in a coarse-to-fine manner, enhancing the model's ability to learn and elucidate underlying temporal patterns. Furthermore, the frequency-enhanced decomposable network operates in the frequency domain to extract globally shared time-invariant information and time-variant temporal dynamics for accurate series reconstruction. Extensive experiments conducted across five real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed MODEM achieves state-of-the-art performance and can be generalized to other time series tasks.

Poster
Layerwise Recurrent Router for Mixture-of-Experts

Zihan Qiu, Zeyu Huang, Shuang Cheng, Yizhi Zhou, Zili Wang, Ivan Titov, Jie Fu

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The scaling of large language models (LLMs) has revolutionized their capabilities in various tasks, yet this growth must be matched with efficient computational strategies. The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture stands out for its ability to scale model size without significantly increasing training costs. Despite their advantages, current MoE models often display parameter inefficiency. For instance, a pre-trained MoE-based LLM with 52 billion parameters might perform comparably to a standard model with 6.7 billion. Being a crucial part of MoE, current routers in different layers independently assign tokens without leveraging historical routing information, potentially leading to suboptimal token-expert combinations and the parameter inefficiency problem. To alleviate this issue, we introduce the Layerwise Recurrent Router for Mixture-of-Experts (RMoE). RMoE leverages a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to establish dependencies between routing decisions across consecutive layers. Such layerwise recurrence can be efficiently parallelly computed for input tokens and introduces negotiable costs. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that RMoE-based language models consistently outperform a spectrum of baseline models. Furthermore, RMoE integrates a novel computation stage orthogonal to existing methods, allowing seamless compatibility with other MoE architectures. Our analyses attribute RMoE's gains to its effective cross-layer information sharing, which also improves expert selection and diversity.

Poster
On Minimizing Adversarial Counterfactual Error in Adversarial Reinforcement Learning

Roman Belaire, Arunesh Sinha, Pradeep Varakantham

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Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) policies are highly susceptible to adversarial noise in observations, which poses significant risks in safety-critical scenarios. The challenge inherent to adversarial perturbations is that by altering the information observed by the agent, the state becomes only partially observable. Existing approaches address this by either enforcing consistent actions across nearby states or maximizing the worst-case value within adversarially perturbed observations. However, the former suffers from performance degradation when attacks succeed, while the latter tends to be overly conservative, leading to suboptimal performance in benign settings. We hypothesize that these limitations stem from their failing to account for partial observability directly. To this end, we introduce a novel objective called Adversarial Counterfactual Error (ACoE), defined on the beliefs about the true state and balancing value optimization with robustness. To make ACoE scalable in model-free settings, we propose the theoretically-grounded surrogate objective Cumulative-ACoE (C-ACoE). Our empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks (MuJoCo, Atari, and Highway) demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches for addressing adversarial RL challenges, offering a promising direction for improving robustness in DRL under adversarial conditions. Our code is available at https://github.com/romanbelaire/acoe-robust-rl.

Poster
GraphRouter: A Graph-based Router for LLM Selections

Tao Feng, Yanzhen Shen, Jiaxuan You

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The rapidly growing number and variety of Large Language Models (LLMs) present significant challenges in efficiently selecting the appropriate LLM for a given query, especially considering the trade-offs between performance and computational cost. Current LLM selection methods often struggle to generalize across new LLMs and different tasks because of their limited ability to leverage contextual interactions among tasks, queries, and LLMs, as well as their depen- dence on a transductive learning framework. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a novel inductive graph framework, named as GraphRouter, which fully utilizes the contextual information among tasks, queries, and LLMs to en- hance the LLM selection process. GraphRouter constructs a heterogeneous graph comprising task, query, and LLM nodes, with interactions represented as edges, which efficiently captures the contextual information between the query’s requirements and the LLM’s capabilities. Through an innovative edge prediction mechanism, GraphRouter is able to predict attributes (the effect and cost of LLM response) of potential edges, allowing for optimized recommendations that adapt to both existing and newly introduced LLMs without requiring retraining. Comprehensive experiments across three distinct effect-cost weight scenarios have shown that GraphRouter substantially surpasses existing routers, delivering a minimum performance improvement of 12.3%. In addition, it achieves enhanced generalization across new LLMs settings and supports diverse tasks with at least a 9.5% boost in effect and a significant reduction in computational demands. This work endeavors to apply a graph-based approach for the contextual and adaptive selection of LLMs, offering insights for real-world applications.

Poster
Rethinking Audio-Visual Adversarial Vulnerability from Temporal and Modality Perspectives

Zeliang Zhang, Susan Liang, Daiki Shimada, Chenliang Xu

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While audio-visual learning equips models with a richer understanding of the real world by leveraging multiple sensory modalities, this integration also introduces new vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of the adversarial robustness of audio-visual models, considering both temporal and modality-specific vulnerabilities. We propose two powerful adversarial attacks: 1) a temporal invariance attack that exploits the inherent temporal redundancy across consecutive time segments and 2) a modality misalignment attack that introduces incongruence between the audio and visual modalities. These attacks are designed to thoroughly assess the robustness of audio-visual models against diverse threats. Furthermore, to defend against such attacks, we introduce a novel audio-visual adversarial training framework. This framework addresses key challenges in vanilla adversarial training by incorporating efficient adversarial perturbation crafting tailored to multi-modal data and an adversarial curriculum strategy. Extensive experiments in the Kinetics-Sounds dataset demonstrate that our proposed temporal and modality-based attacks in degrading model performance can achieve state-of-the-art performance, while our adversarial training defense largely improves the adversarial robustness as well as the adversarial training efficiency.

Poster
Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models

Martin Andrae, Tomas Landelius, Joel Oskarsson, Fredrik Lindsten

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Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble forecasts. These models are trained on a single forecasting step and rolled out autoregressively. However, they are computationally expensive and accumulate errors for high temporal resolution due to the many rollout steps. We address these limitations with Continuous Ensemble Forecasting, a novel and flexible method for sampling ensemble forecasts in diffusion models. The method can generate temporally consistent ensemble trajectories completely in parallel, with no autoregressive steps. Continuous Ensemble Forecasting can also be combined with autoregressive rollouts to yield forecasts at an arbitrary fine temporal resolution without sacrificing accuracy. We demonstrate that the method achieves competitive results for global weather forecasting with good probabilistic properties.

Poster