ICLR 2025 Papers

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate these forecasters *instantaneously*? Following the consistency check framework, we measure the performance of forecasters in terms of the consistency of their predictions on different logically-related questions. We propose a new, general consistency metric based on *arbitrage*: for example, if a forecasting AI illogically predicts that both the Democratic and Republican parties have 60\% probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election, an arbitrageur could trade against the forecaster's predictions and make a profit. We build an automated evaluation system that generates a set of base questions, instantiates consistency checks from these questions, elicits the predictions of the forecaster, and measures the consistency of the predictions. We then build a standard, proper-scoring-rule forecasting benchmark, and show that our (instantaneous) consistency metrics correlate strongly with LLM forecasters' ground truth Brier scores (which are only known in the future). We also release a consistency benchmark that resolves in 2028, providing a long-term evaluation tool for forecasting.

Designing expressive Graph neural networks (GNNs) is an important topic in graph machine learning fields. Traditionally, the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) test has been the primary measure for evaluating GNN expressiveness. However, high-order WL tests can be obscure, making it challenging to discern the specific graph patterns captured by them. Given the connection between WL tests and first-order logic, some have explored the logical expressiveness of Message Passing Neural Networks. This paper aims to establish a comprehensive and systematic relationship between GNNs and logic. We propose a framework for identifying the equivalent logical formulas for arbitrary GNN architectures, which not only explains existing models, but also provides inspiration for future research. As case studies, we analyze multiple classes of prominent GNNs within this framework, unifying different subareas of the field. Additionally, we conduct a detailed examination of homomorphism expressivity from a logical perspective and present a general method for determining the homomorphism expressivity of arbitrary GNN models, as well as addressing several open problems.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) is increasingly popular for 3D reconstruction due to its superior visual quality and rendering speed. However, 3DGS training currently occurs on a single GPU, limiting its ability to handle high-resolution and large-scale 3D reconstruction tasks due to memory constraints. We introduce Grendel, a distributed system designed to partition 3DGS parameters and parallelize computation across multiple GPUs. As each Gaussian affects a small, dynamic subset of rendered pixels, Grendel employs sparse all-to-all communication to transfer the necessary Gaussians to pixel partitions and performs dynamic load balancing. Unlike existing 3DGS systems that train using one camera view image at a time, Grendel supports batched training with multiple views. We explore various optimization hyperparameter scaling strategies and find that a simple sqrt(batch-size) scaling rule is highly effective. Evaluations using large-scale, high-resolution scenes show that Grendel enhances rendering quality by scaling up 3DGS parameters across multiple GPUs. On the 4K ``Rubble'' dataset, we achieve a test PSNR of 27.28 by distributing 40.4 million Gaussians across 16 GPU, compared to a PSNR of 26.28 using 11.2 million Gaussians on a single GPU. Grendel is an open-source project available at: https://github.com/nyu-systems/Grendel-GS

Data scaling has revolutionized fields like natural language processing and computer vision, providing models with remarkable generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate whether similar data scaling laws exist in robotics, particularly in robotic manipulation, and whether appropriate data scaling can yield single-task robot policies that can be deployed zero-shot for any object within the same category in any environment. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on data scaling in imitation learning. By collecting data across numerous environments and objects, we study how a policy’s generalization performance changes with the number of training environments, objects, and demonstrations. Throughout our research, we collect over 40,000 demonstrations and execute more than 15,000 real-world robot rollouts under a rigorous evaluation protocol. Our findings reveal several intriguing results: the generalization performance of the policy follows a roughly power-law relationship with the number of environments and objects. The diversity of environments and objects is far more important than the absolute number of demonstrations; once the number of demonstrations per environment or object reaches a certain threshold, additional demonstrations have minimal effect. Based on these insights, we propose an efficient data collection strategy. With four data collectors working for one afternoon, we collect sufficient data to enable the policies for two tasks to achieve approximately 90\% success rates in novel environments with unseen objects.

Describing skills in natural language has the potential to provide an accessible way to inject human knowledge about decision-making into an AI system. We present MaestroMotif, a method for AI-assisted skill design, which yields high-performing and adaptable agents. MaestroMotif leverages the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to effectively create and reuse skills. It first uses an LLM's feedback to automatically design rewards corresponding to each skill, starting from their natural language description. Then, it employs an LLM's code generation abilities, together with reinforcement learning, for training the skills and combining them to implement complex behaviors specified in language. We evaluate MaestroMotif using a suite of complex tasks in the NetHack Learning Environment (NLE), demonstrating that it surpasses existing approaches in both performance and usability.

We introduce DarkBench, a comprehensive benchmark for detecting dark design patterns—manipulative techniques that influence user behavior—in interactions with large language models (LLMs). Our benchmark comprises 660 prompts across six categories: brand bias, user retention, sycophancy, anthropomorphism, harmful generation, and sneaking. We evaluate models from five leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Google) and find that some LLMs are explicitly designed to favor their developers' products and exhibit untruthful communication, among other manipulative behaviors. Companies developing LLMs should recognize and mitigate the impact of dark design patterns to promote more ethical Al.

Data-driven techniques have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional numerical methods for solving PDEs. For time-dependent PDEs, many approaches are Markovian---the evolution of the trained system only depends on the current state, and not the past states. In this work, we investigate the benefits of using memory for modeling time-dependent PDEs: that is, when past states are explicitly used to predict the future. Motivated by the Mori-Zwanzig theory of model reduction, we theoretically exhibit examples of simple (even linear) PDEs, in which a solution that uses memory is arbitrarily better than a Markovian solution. Additionally, we introduce Memory Neural Operator (MemNO), a neural operator architecture that combines recent state space models (specifically, S4) and Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) to effectively model memory. We empirically demonstrate that when the PDEs are supplied in low resolution or contain observation noise at train and test time, MemNO significantly outperforms the baselines without memory---with up to $6 \times$ reduction in test error. Furthermore, we show that this benefit is particularly pronounced when the PDE solutions have significant high-frequency Fourier modes (e.g., low-viscosity fluid dynamics) and we construct a challenging benchmark dataset consisting of such PDEs.

Automatic chart understanding is crucial for content comprehension and document parsing. Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in chart understanding through domain-specific alignment and fine-tuning. However, current MLLMs still struggle to provide faithful data and reliable analysis only based on charts. To address it, we propose ChartMoE, which employs the Mixture of Expert (MoE) architecture to replace the traditional linear projector to bridge the modality gap. Specifically, we train several linear connectors through distinct alignment tasks, which are utilized as the foundational initialization parameters for different experts. Additionally, we introduce ChartMoE-Align, a dataset with nearly 1 million chart-table-JSON-code quadruples to conduct three alignment tasks (chart-table/JSON/code). Combined with the vanilla connector, we initialize different experts diversely and adopt high-quality knowledge learning to further refine the MoE connector and LLM parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the MoE connector and our initialization strategy, e.g., ChartMoE improves the accuracy of the previous state-of-the-art from 80.48% to 84.64% on the ChartQA benchmark.

Cellular automata have become a cornerstone for investigating emergence and self-organization across diverse scientific disciplines. However, the absence of a hardware-accelerated cellular automata library limits the exploration of new research directions, hinders collaboration, and impedes reproducibility. In this work, we introduce CAX (Cellular Automata Accelerated in JAX), a high-performance and flexible open-source library designed to accelerate cellular automata research. CAX delivers cutting-edge performance through hardware acceleration while maintaining flexibility through its modular architecture, intuitive API, and support for both discrete and continuous cellular automata in arbitrary dimensions. We demonstrate CAX's performance and flexibility through a wide range of benchmarks and applications. From classic models like elementary cellular automata and Conway's Game of Life to advanced applications such as growing neural cellular automata and self-classifying MNIST digits, CAX speeds up simulations up to 2,000 times faster. Furthermore, we demonstrate CAX's potential to accelerate research by presenting a collection of three novel cellular automata experiments, each implemented in just a few lines of code thanks to the library's modular architecture. Notably, we show that a simple one-dimensional cellular automaton can outperform GPT-4 on the 1D-ARC challenge.

ControlNets are widely used for adding spatial control to text-to-image diffusion models. However, when it comes to controllable video generation, ControlNets cannot be directly integrated into new backbones due to feature space mismatches, and training ControlNets for new backbones can be a significant burden for many users. Furthermore, applying ControlNets independently to different frames can not effectively maintain object temporal consistency. To address these challenges, we introduce Ctrl-Adapter, an efficient and versatile framework that adds diverse controls to any image/video diffusion models through the adaptation of pretrained ControlNets. Ctrl-Adapter offers strong and diverse capabilities, including image and video control, sparse-frame video control, fine-grained patch-level multi-condition control, zero-shot adaptation to unseen conditions, and supports a variety of downstream tasks beyond spatial control, including video editing, video style transfer, and text-guided motion control. With six diverse U-Net/DiT-based image/video diffusion models (SDXL, PixArt-α, I2VGen-XL, SVD, Latte, Hotshot-XL), Ctrl-Adapter matches the performance of pretrained ControlNets on COCO and achieves the state-of-the-art on DAVIS 2017 with significantly lower computation (< 10 GPU hours).

It has long been known in both neuroscience and AI that ``binding'' between neurons leads to a form of competitive learning where representations are compressed in order to represent more abstract concepts in deeper layers of the network. More recently, it was also hypothesized that dynamic (spatiotemporal) representations play an important role in both neuroscience and AI. Building on these ideas, we introduce Artificial Kuramoto Oscillatory Neurons (AKOrN) as a dynamical alternative to threshold units, which can be combined with arbitrary connectivity designs such as fully connected, convolutional, or attentive mechanisms. Our generalized Kuramoto updates bind neurons together through their synchronization dynamics. We show that this idea provides performance improvements across a wide spectrum of tasks such as unsupervised object discovery, adversarial robustness, calibrated uncertainty quantification, and reasoning. We believe that these empirical results show the importance of rethinking our assumptions at the most basic neuronal level of neural representation, and in particular show the importance of dynamical representations. Code: https://github.com/autonomousvision/akorn Project page: https://takerum.github.io/akorn_project_page/

This work provides the first theoretical analysis of training transformers to solve complex problems by recursively generating intermediate states, analogous to fine-tuning for chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. We consider training a one-layer transformer to solve the fundamental $k$-parity problem, extending the work on RNNs by \citet{Wies23}. We establish three key results: (1) any finite-precision gradient-based algorithm, without intermediate supervision, requires substantial iterations to solve parity with finite samples. (2) In contrast, when intermediate parities are incorporated into the loss function, our model can learn parity in one gradient update when aided by \emph{teacher forcing}, where ground-truth labels of the reasoning chain are provided at each generation step. (3) Even without teacher forcing, where the model must generate CoT chains end-to-end, parity can be learned efficiently if augmented data is employed to internally verify the soundness of intermediate steps. Our findings, supported by numerical experiments, show that task decomposition and stepwise reasoning naturally arise from optimizing transformers with CoT; moreover, self-consistency checking can improve multi-step reasoning ability, aligning with empirical studies of CoT.

The performance of large language models (LLMs) is closely linked to their underlying size, leading to ever-growing networks and hence slower inference. Speculative decoding has been proposed as a technique to accelerate autoregressive generation, leveraging a fast draft model to propose candidate tokens, which are then verified in parallel based on their likelihood under the target model. While this approach guarantees to reproduce the target output, it incurs a substantial penalty: many high-quality draft tokens are rejected, even when they represent objectively valid continuations. Indeed, we show that even powerful draft models such as GPT-4o, as well as human text cannot achieve high acceptance rates under the standard verification scheme. This severely limits the speedup potential of current speculative decoding methods, as an early rejection becomes overwhelmingly likely when solely relying on alignment of draft and target. We thus ask the following question: Can we adapt verification to recognize correct, but non-aligned replies? To this end, we draw inspiration from the LLM-as-a-judge framework, which demonstrated that LLMs are able to rate answers in a versatile way. We carefully design a dataset coined TokenCourt to elicit the same capability in the target model by training a compact module on top of the embeddings to produce ``judgements" of the current continuation. We showcase our strategy on the Llama-3.1 family, where our 8B/405B-Judge achieves a speedup of $9\times$ over Llama-405B, while maintaining its quality on a large range of benchmarks. These benefits remain present even in optimized inference frameworks, where our method reaches up to $141$ tokens/s for 8B/70B-Judge and $129$ tokens/s for 8B/405B on $2$ and $8$ H100s respectively.

Self-improvement is a mechanism in Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training, post-training and test-time inference. We explore a framework where the model verifies its own outputs, filters or reweights data based on this verification, and distills the filtered data. Despite several empirical successes, a fundamental understanding is still lacking. In this work, we initiate a comprehensive, modular and controlled study on LLM self-improvement. We provide a mathematical formulation for self-improvement, which is largely governed by a quantity which we formalize as the **generation-verification gap**. Through experiments with various model families and tasks, we discover a scaling phenomenon of self-improvement -- a variant of the generation-verification gap scales monotonically with the model pre-training flops. We also examine when self-improvement is possible, an iterative self-improvement procedure, and ways to improve its performance. Our findings not only advance understanding of LLM self-improvement with practical implications, but also open numerous avenues for future research into its capabilities and boundaries.

Current efforts to learn scalable policies in robotic manipulation primarily fall into two categories: one focuses on "action," which involves behavior cloning from extensive collections of robotic data, while the other emphasizes "vision," enhancing model generalization by pre-training representations or generative models, also referred to as world models, using large-scale visual datasets. This paper presents an end-to-end paradigm that predicts actions using inverse dynamics models conditioned on the robot's forecasted visual states, named Predictive Inverse Dynamics Models (PIDM). By closing the loop between vision and action, the end-to-end PIDM can be a better scalable action learner. In practice, we use Transformers to process both visual states and actions, naming the model Seer. It is initially pre-trained on large-scale robotic datasets, such as DROID, and can be adapted to real-world scenarios with a little fine-tuning data. Thanks to large-scale, end-to-end training and the continuous synergy between vision and action at each execution step, Seer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods across both simulation and real-world experiments. It achieves improvements of 13% on the LIBERO-LONG benchmark, 22% on CALVIN ABC-D, and 43% in real-world tasks. Notably, it demonstrates superior generalization for novel objects, lighting conditions, and environments under high-intensity disturbances. Code and models will be publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4, have shown remarkable performance in natural language processing (NLP) tasks, including challenging mathematical reasoning. However, most existing open-source models are only pre-trained on large-scale internet data and without math-related optimization. In this paper, we present WizardMath, which enhances the mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs, by applying our proposed Reinforcement Learning from Evol-Instruct Feedback (RLEIF) method to the domain of math. Through extensive experiments on two mathematical reasoning benchmarks, namely GSM8k and MATH, we reveal the extraordinary capabilities of our model. Remarkably, WizardMath-Mistral 7B surpasses all other open-source LLMs by a substantial margin. Furthermore, WizardMath 70B even outperforms ChatGPT-3.5, Claude Instant, Gemini Pro and Mistral Medium. Additionally, our preliminary exploration highlights the pivotal role of instruction evolution and process supervision in achieving exceptional math performance.

Mathematical equations have been unreasonably effective in describing complex natural phenomena across various scientific disciplines. However, discovering such insightful equations from data presents significant challenges due to the necessity of navigating extremely large combinatorial hypothesis spaces. Current methods of equation discovery, commonly known as symbolic regression techniques, largely focus on extracting equations from data alone, often neglecting the domain-specific prior knowledge that scientists typically depend on. They also employ limited representations such as expression trees, constraining the search space and expressiveness of equations. To bridge this gap, we introduce LLM-SR, a novel approach that leverages the extensive scientific knowledge and robust code generation capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover scientific equations from data. Specifically, LLM-SR treats equations as programs with mathematical operators and combines LLMs' scientific priors with evolutionary search over equation programs. The LLM iteratively proposes new equation skeleton hypotheses, drawing from its domain knowledge, which are then optimized against data to estimate parameters. We evaluate LLM-SR on four benchmark problems across diverse scientific domains (e.g., physics, biology), which we carefully designed to simulate the discovery process and prevent LLM recitation. Our results demonstrate that LLM-SR discovers physically accurate equations that significantly outperform state-of-the-art symbolic regression baselines, particularly in out-of-domain test settings. We also show that LLM-SR's incorporation of scientific priors enables more efficient equation space exploration than the baselines.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are transforming the capabilities of graphical user interface (GUI) agents, facilitating their transition from controlled simulations to complex, real-world applications across various platforms. However, the effectiveness of these agents hinges on the robustness of their grounding capability. Current GUI agents predominantly utilize text-based representations such as HTML or accessibility trees, which, despite their utility, often introduce noise, incompleteness, and increased computational overhead. In this paper, we advocate a human-like embodiment for GUI agents that perceive the environment entirely visually and directly perform pixel-level operations on the GUI. The key is visual grounding models that can accurately map diverse referring expressions of GUI elements to their coordinates on the GUI across different platforms. We show that a simple recipe, which includes web-based synthetic data and slight adaptation of the LLaVA architecture, is surprisingly effective for training such visual grounding models. We collect the largest dataset for GUI visual grounding so far, containing 10M GUI elements and their referring expressions over 1.3M screenshots, and use it to train UGround, a strong universal visual grounding model for GUI agents. Empirical results on six benchmarks spanning three categories (grounding, offline agent, and online agent) show that 1) UGround substantially outperforms existing visual grounding models for GUI agents, by up to 20\% absolute, and 2) agents with UGround outperform state-of-the-art agents, despite the fact that existing agents use additional text-based input while ours only uses visual perception. These results provide strong support for the feasibility and promises of GUI agents that navigate the digital world as humans do.

Understanding how sensory neurons exhibit selectivity to certain features and invariance to others is central to uncovering the computational principles underlying robustness and generalization in visual perception. Most existing methods for characterizing selectivity and invariance identify single or finite discrete sets of stimuli. Since these are only isolated measurements from an underlying continuous manifold, characterizing invariance properties accurately and comparing them across neurons with varying receptive field size, position, and orientation, becomes challenging. Consequently, a systematic analysis of invariance types at the population level remains under-explored. Building on recent advances in learning continuous invariance manifolds, we introduce a novel method to accurately identify and align invariance manifolds of visual sensory neurons, overcoming these challenges. Our approach first learns the continuous invariance manifold of stimuli that maximally excite a neuron modeled by a response-predicting deep neural network. It then learns an affine transformation on the pixel coordinates such that the same manifold activates another neuron as strongly as possible, effectively aligning their invariance manifolds spatially. This alignment provides a principled way to quantify and compare neuronal invariances irrespective of receptive field differences. Using simulated neurons, we demonstrate that our method accurately learns and aligns known invariance manifolds, robustly identifying functional clusters. When applied to macaque V1 neurons, it reveals functional clusters of neurons, including simple and complex cells. Overall, our method enables systematic, quantitative exploration of the neural invariance landscape, to gain new insights into the functional properties of visual sensory neurons.