Counterfactual Fairness

It is commonly believed that, in a real-world environment, samples can only be drawn from observational and interventional distributions, corresponding to Layers 1 and 2 of the *Pearl Causal Hierarchy*. Layer 3, representing counterfactual distributions, is believed to be inaccessible by definition. However, Bareinboim, Forney, and Pearl (2015) introduced a procedure that allows an agent to sample directly from a counterfactual distribution, leaving open the question of what other counterfactual quantities can be estimated directly via physical experimentation. We resolve this by introducing a formal definition of realizability, the ability to draw samples from a distribution, and then developing a complete algorithm to determine whether an arbitrary counterfactual distribution is realizable given fundamental physical constraints, such as the inability to go back in time and subject the same unit to a different experimental condition. We illustrate the implications of this new framework for counterfactual data collection using motivating examples from causal fairness and causal reinforcement learning. While the baseline approach in these motivating settings typically follows an interventional or observational strategy, we show that a counterfactual strategy provably dominates both.

Aligning the decision-making process of machine learning algorithms with that of experienced radiologists is crucial for reliable diagnosis. While existing methods have attempted to align their prediction behaviors to those of radiologists reflected in the training data, this alignment is primarily associational rather than causal, resulting in pseudo-correlations that may not transfer well. In this paper, we propose a causality-based alignment framework towards aligning the model's decision process with that of experts. Specifically, we first employ counterfactual generation to identify the causal chain of model decisions. To align this causal chain with that of experts, we propose a causal alignment loss that enforces the model to focus on causal factors underlying each decision step in the whole causal chain. To optimize this loss that involves the counterfactual generator as an implicit function of the model's parameters, we employ the implicit function theorem equipped with the conjugate gradient method for efficient estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on two medical diagnosis applications, showcasing faithful alignment to radiologists.

Evaluating chatbot fairness is crucial given their rapid proliferation, yet typical chatbot tasks (e.g., resume writing, entertainment) diverge from the institutional decision-making tasks (e.g., resume screening) which have traditionally been central to discussion of algorithmic fairness. The open-ended nature and diverse use-cases of chatbots necessitate novel methods for bias assessment. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a scalable counterfactual approach to evaluate "first-person fairness," meaning fairness toward chatbot users based on demographic characteristics. Our method employs a Language Model as a Research Assistant (LMRA) to yield quantitative measures of harmful stereotypes and qualitative analyses of demographic differences in chatbot responses. We apply this approach to assess biases in six of our language models across millions of interactions, covering sixty-six tasks in nine domains and spanning two genders and four races. Independent human annotations corroborate the LMRA-generated bias evaluations. This study represents the first large-scale fairness evaluation based on real-world chat data. We highlight that post-training reinforcement learning techniques significantly mitigate these biases. This evaluation provides a practical methodology for ongoing bias monitoring and mitigation.

The Sliced Wasserstein barycenter (SWB) is a widely acknowledged method for efficiently generalizing the averaging operation within probability measure spaces. However, achieving marginal fairness SWB, ensuring approximately equal distances from the barycenter to marginals, remains unexplored. The uniform weighted SWB is not necessarily the optimal choice to obtain the desired marginal fairness barycenter due to the heterogeneous structure of marginals and the non-optimality of the optimization. As the first attempt to tackle the problem, we define the marginal fairness sliced Wasserstein barycenter (MFSWB) as a constrained SWB problem. Due to the computational disadvantages of the formal definition, we propose two hyperparameter-free and computationally tractable surrogate MFSWB problems that implicitly minimize the distances to marginals and encourage marginal fairness at the same time. To further improve the efficiency, we perform slicing distribution selection and obtain the third surrogate definition by introducing a new slicing distribution that focuses more on marginally unfair projecting directions. We discuss the relationship of the three proposed problems and their relationship to sliced multi-marginal Wasserstein distance. Finally, we conduct experiments on finding 3D point-clouds averaging, color harmonization, and training of sliced Wasserstein autoencoder with class-fairness representation to show the favorable performance of the proposed surrogate MFSWB problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce biased responses that can cause representational harms. However, conventional studies are insufficient to thoroughly evaluate biases across LLM responses for different demographic groups (a.k.a. counterfactual bias), as they do not scale to large number of inputs and do not provide guarantees. Therefore, we propose the first framework, LLMCert-B that certifies LLMs for counterfactual bias on distributions of prompts. A certificate consists of high-confidence bounds on the probability of unbiased LLM responses for any set of counterfactual prompts - prompts differing by demographic groups, sampled from a distribution. We illustrate counterfactual bias certification for distributions of counterfactual prompts created by applying prefixes sampled from prefix distributions, to a given set of prompts. We consider prefix distributions consisting random token sequences, mixtures of manual jailbreaks, and perturbations of jailbreaks in LLM’s embedding space. We generate non-trivial certificates for SOTA LLMs, exposing their vulnerabilities over distributions of prompts generated from computationally inexpensive prefix distributions.

The challenge of balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in machine learning models, especially when sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age are considered, has motivated substantial research in recent years. Counterfactual fairness ensures that predictions remain consistent across counterfactual variations of sensitive attributes, which is a crucial concept in addressing societal biases. However, existing counterfactual fairness approaches usually overlook intrinsic information about sensitive features, limiting their ability to achieve fairness while simultaneously maintaining performance. To tackle this challenge, we introduce EXOgenous Causal reasoning (EXOC), a novel causal reasoning framework motivated by exogenous variables. It leverages auxiliary variables to uncover intrinsic properties that give rise to sensitive attributes. Our framework explicitly defines an auxiliary node and a control node that contribute to counterfactual fairness and control the information flow within the model. Our evaluation, conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets, validates EXOC's superiority, showing that it outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in achieving counterfactual fairness without sacrificing accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/CASE-Lab-UMD/counterfactual_fairness_2025.