ICLR 2024 Papers

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.4% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Text-to-video editing aims to edit the visual appearance of a source video conditional on textual prompts. A major challenge in this task is to ensure that all frames in the edited video are visually consistent. Most recent works apply advanced text-to-image diffusion models to this task by inflating 2D spatial attention in the U-Net into spatio-temporal attention. Although temporal context can be added through spatio-temporal attention, it may introduce some irrelevant information for each patch and therefore cause inconsistency in the edited video. In this paper, for the first time, we introduce optical flow into the attention module in diffusion model's U-Net to address the inconsistency issue for text-to-video editing. Our method, FLATTEN, enforces the patches on the same flow path across different frames to attend to each other in the attention module, thus improving the visual consistency in the edited videos. Additionally, our method is training-free and can be seamlessly integrated into any diffusion based text-to-video editing methods and improve their visual consistency. Experiment results on existing text-to-video editing benchmarks show that our proposed method achieves the new state-of-the-art performance. In particular, our method excels in maintaining the visual consistency in the edited videos.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability $\eta(x)=\mathbb{P}(Y=1\mid X=x)$, we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of $2\eta(x)-1$ and apply the method to real datasets.

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces SKILL-MIX, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of $N$ skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of $k$ skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like $N^k$, for even modest $k$ this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of SKILL-MIX to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on $k=5$ is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a SKILL-MIX based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models. We maintain a leaderboard of SKILL-MIX at [https://skill-mix.github.io](https://skill-mix.github.io).

Context-based fine-tuning methods, including prompting, in-context learning, soft prompting (also known as prompt tuning), and prefix-tuning, have gained popularity due to their ability to often match the performance of full fine-tuning with a fraction of the parameters. Despite their empirical successes, there is little theoretical understanding of how these techniques influence the internal computation of the model and their expressiveness limitations. We show that despite the continuous embedding space being more expressive than the discrete token space, soft-prompting and prefix-tuning are potentially less expressive than full fine-tuning, even with the same number of learnable parameters. Concretely, context-based fine-tuning cannot change the relative attention pattern over the content and can only bias the outputs of an attention layer in a fixed direction. This suggests that while techniques like prompting, in-context learning, soft prompting, and prefix-tuning can effectively elicit skills present in the pretrained model, they may not be able to learn novel tasks that require new attention patterns.

Multimodal patient representation learning aims to integrate information from multiple modalities and generate comprehensive patient representations for subsequent clinical predictive tasks. However, many existing approaches either presuppose the availability of all modalities and labels for each patient or only deal with missing modalities. In reality, patient data often comes with both missing modalities and labels for various reasons (i.e., the missing modality and label issue). Moreover, multimodal models might over-rely on certain modalities, causing sub-optimal performance when these modalities are absent (i.e., the modality collapse issue). To address these issues, we introduce MUSE: a mutual-consistent graph contrastive learning method. MUSE uses a flexible bipartite graph to represent the patient-modality relationship, which can adapt to various missing modality patterns. To tackle the modality collapse issue, MUSE learns to focus on modality-general and label-decisive features via a mutual-consistent contrastive learning loss. Notably, the unsupervised component of the contrastive objective only requires self-supervision signals, thereby broadening the training scope to incorporate patients with missing labels. We evaluate MUSE on three publicly available datasets: MIMIC-IV, eICU, and ADNI. Results show that MUSE outperforms all baselines, and MUSE+ further elevates the absolute improvement to ~4% by extending the training scope to patients with absent labels.

Deep neural networks with feature learning have shown surprising generalization performance in high dimensional settings, but it has not been fully understood how and when they enjoy the benefit of feature learning. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the statistical properties of the benefits from feature learning in a two-layer linear neural network with multiple outputs in a high-dimensional setting. For that purpose, we propose a new criterion that allows feature learning of a two-layer linear neural network in a high-dimensional setting. Interestingly, we can show that models with smaller values of the criterion generalize even in situations where normal ridge regression fails to generalize. This is because the proposed criterion contains a proper regularization for the feature mapping and acts as an upper bound on the predictive risk. As an important characterization of the criterion, the two-layer linear neural network that minimizes this criterion can achieve the optimal Bayes risk that is determined by the distribution of the true signals across the multiple outputs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to specifically identify the conditions under which a model obtained by proper feature learning can outperform normal ridge regression in a high-dimensional multiple-output linear regression problem.

The transformer architecture has driven breakthroughs in recent years on tasks which require modeling pairwise relationships between sequential elements, as is the case in natural language understanding. However, long seqeuences pose a problem due to the quadratic complexity of the attention operation. Previous re- search has aimed to lower the complexity by sparsifying or linearly approximating the attention matrix. Yet, these approaches cannot straightforwardly distill knowl- edge from a teacher’s attention matrix, and often require complete retraining from scratch. Furthermore, previous sparse and linear approaches lose interpretability if they cannot produce full attention matrices. To address these challenges, we propose SEA: Sparse linear attention with an Estimated Attention mask. SEA estimates the attention matrix with linear complexity via kernel-based linear at- tention, then subsequently creates a sparse attention matrix with a top-k̂ selection to perform a sparse attention operation. For language modeling tasks (Wikitext2), previous linear and sparse attention methods show roughly two-fold worse per- plexity scores over the quadratic OPT-1.3B baseline, while SEA achieves better perplexity than OPT-1.3B, using roughly half the memory of OPT-1.3B. More- over, SEA maintains an interpretable attention matrix and can utilize knowledge distillation to lower the complexity of existing pretrained transformers. We be- lieve that our work will have a large practical impact, as it opens the possibility of running large transformers on resource-limited devices with less memory. Code: https://github.com/gmlwns2000/sea-attention

As large language models (LLMs) generate texts with increasing fluency and realism, there is a growing need to identify the source of texts to prevent the abuse of LLMs. Text watermarking techniques have proven reliable in distinguishing whether a text is generated by LLMs by injecting hidden patterns. However, we argue that existing LLM watermarking methods are encoding-inefficient and cannot flexibly meet the diverse information encoding needs (such as encoding model version, generation time, user id, etc.). In this work, we conduct the first systematic study on the topic of **Codable Text Watermarking for LLMs** (CTWL) that allows text watermarks to carry multi-bit customizable information. First of all, we study the taxonomy of LLM watermarking technologies and give a mathematical formulation for CTWL. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive evaluation system for CTWL: (1) watermarking success rate, (2) robustness against various corruptions, (3) coding rate of payload information, (4) encoding and decoding efficiency, (5) impacts on the quality of the generated text. To meet the requirements of these non-Pareto-improving metrics, we follow the most prominent vocabulary partition-based watermarking direction, and devise an advanced CTWL method named **Balance-Marking**. The core idea of our method is to use a proxy language model to split the vocabulary into probability-balanced parts, thereby effectively maintaining the quality of the watermarked text. Our code is available at https://github.com/lancopku/codable-watermarking-for-llm.

The process of revising (or constructing) a policy at execution time---known as decision-time planning---has been key to achieving superhuman performance in perfect-information games like chess and Go. A recent line of work has extended decision-time planning to imperfect-information games, leading to superhuman performance in poker. However, these methods involve solving subgames whose sizes grow quickly in the amount of non-public information, making them unhelpful when the amount of non-public information is large. Motivated by this issue, we introduce an alternative framework for decision-time planning that is not based on solving subgames, but rather on update equivalence. In this update-equivalence framework, decision-time planning algorithms replicate the updates of last-iterate algorithms, which need not rely on public information. This facilitates scalability to games with large amounts of non-public information. Using this framework, we derive a provably sound search algorithm for fully cooperative games based on mirror descent and a search algorithm for adversarial games based on magnetic mirror descent. We validate the performance of these algorithms in cooperative and adversarial domains, notably in Hanabi, the standard benchmark for search in fully cooperative imperfect-information games. Here, our mirror descent approach exceeds or matches the performance of public information-based search while using two orders of magnitude less search time. This is the first instance of a non-public-information-based algorithm outperforming public-information-based approaches in a domain they have historically dominated.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (**A**UEL), Random Dropping (**R**D) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (**M**KLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10\%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning. The code is available at: https://github.com/kethmih/AirPhyNet

The extrapolation capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) based on Rotary Position Embedding \citep{su2021roformer} is currently a topic of considerable interest. The mainstream approach to addressing extrapolation with LLMs involves modifying RoPE by replacing 10000, the rotary base of $\theta_n={10000}^{-2n/d}$ in the original RoPE, with a larger value and providing longer fine-tuning text. In this work, we first observe that fine-tuning a RoPE-based LLM with either a smaller or larger base in pre-training context length could significantly enhance its extrapolation performance. After that, we propose \textbf{\textit{Scaling Laws of RoPE-based Extrapolation}}, a unified framework from the periodic perspective, to describe the relationship between the extrapolation performance and base value as well as tuning context length. In this process, we also explain the origin of the RoPE-based extrapolation issue by \textbf{\textit{critical dimension for extrapolation}}. Besides these observations and analyses, we achieve extrapolation up to 1 million context length within only 16K training length on LLaMA2 7B and 13B \citep{touvron2023llama2}.

We propose a new bound for generalization of neural networks using Koopman operators. Whereas most of existing works focus on low-rank weight matrices, we focus on full-rank weight matrices. Our bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when the condition numbers of weight matrices are small. Especially, it is completely independent of the width of the network if the weight matrices are orthogonal. Our bound does not contradict to the existing bounds but is a complement to the existing bounds. As supported by several existing empirical results, low-rankness is not the only reason for generalization. Furthermore, our bound can be combined with the existing bounds to obtain a tighter bound. Our result sheds new light on understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices, and it provides a connection between operator-theoretic analysis and generalization of neural networks.

Node labels for graphs are usually generated using an automated process or crowd-sourced from human users. This opens up avenues for malicious users to compromise the training labels, making it unwise to blindly rely on them. While robustness against noisy labels is an active area of research, there are only a handful of papers in the literature that address this for graph-based data. Even more so, the effects of adversarial label perturbations is sparsely studied. More critically, we reveal that the entire literature on label poisoning for GNNs is plagued by serious evaluation pitfalls. Thus making it hard to conclude how robust GNNs are against label perturbations. After course correcting the state of label poisoning attacks with our faithful evaluation, we identify a discrepancy in attack efficiency of $\sim9\%$ on average. Additionally, we introduce two new simple yet effective attacks that are significantly stronger (up to $\sim8\%$) than the previous strongest attack. Our strongest proposed attack can be efficiently computed and is theoretically backed.

Despite the promising progress in multi-modal tasks, current large multi-modal models (LMMs) are prone to hallucinating inconsistent descriptions with respect to the associated image and human instructions. This paper addresses this issue by introducing the first large and diverse visual instruction tuning dataset, named Large-scale Robust Visual (LRV)-Instruction. Our dataset comprises 400k visual instructions generated by GPT4, covering 16 vision-and-language tasks with open-ended instructions and answers. Unlike existing studies that primarily focus on positive instruction samples, we design LRV-Instruction to include both positive and negative instructions for more robust visual instruction tuning. Our negative instructions are designed at three semantic levels: (i) Nonexistent Object Manipulation, (ii) Existent Object Manipulation and (iii) Knowledge Manipulation. To efficiently measure the hallucination generated by LMMs, we propose GPT4-Assisted Visual Instruction Evaluation (GAVIE), a stable approach to evaluate visual instruction tuning like human experts. GAVIE does not require human-annotated groundtruth answers and can adapt to diverse instruction formats. We conduct comprehensive experiments to investigate the hallucination of LMMs. Our results demonstrate existing LMMs exhibit significant hallucinations when presented with our negative instructions, particularly Existent Object and Knowledge Manipulation instructions. Moreover, we successfully mitigate hallucination by finetuning MiniGPT4 and mPLUG-Owl on LRV-Instruction while improving performance on several public datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we observed that a balanced ratio of positive and negative instances in the training data leads to a more robust model. Code and data will be released upon publication.

In competitive two-agent environments, deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods like Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) often increase exploitability between iterations, which is problematic when training in large games. To address this issue, we introduce anytime double oracle (ADO), an algorithm that ensures exploitability does not increase between iterations, and its approximate extensive-form version, anytime PSRO (APSRO). ADO converges to a Nash equilibrium while iteratively reducing exploitability. However, convergence in these algorithms may require adding all of a game's deterministic policies. To improve this, we propose Self-Play PSRO (SP-PSRO), which incorporates an approximately optimal stochastic policy into the population in each iteration. APSRO and SP-PSRO demonstrate lower exploitability and near-monotonic exploitability reduction in games like Leduc poker and Liar's Dice. Empirically, SP-PSRO often converges much faster than APSRO and PSRO, requiring only a few iterations in many games.

Score matching methods -- estimate probability densities without computing the normalization constant -- are particularly useful in deep learning. However, computational and memory costs of score matching methods can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data or complex models, particularly due to the derivatives or Hessians of the log density function appearing in the objective function. Some existing approaches modify the objective function to reduce the quadratic computational complexity for Hessian computation. However, the memory bottleneck of score matching methods remains for deep learning. This study improves the memory efficiency of score matching by leveraging deep equilibrium models. We provide a theoretical analysis of deep equilibrium models for scoring matching and applying implicit differentiation to higher-order derivatives. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our approach enables the development of deep and expressive models with improved performance and comparable computational and memory costs over shallow architectures.

We introduce a new zeroth-order algorithm for private stochastic optimization on nonconvex and nonsmooth objectives. Given a dataset of size $M$, our algorithm ensures $(\alpha,\alpha\rho^2/2)$-Renyi differential privacy and finds a $(\delta,\epsilon)$-stationary point so long as $M=\tilde\Omega(\frac{d}{\delta\epsilon^3} + \frac{d^{3/2}}{\rho\delta\epsilon^2})$. This matches the optimal complexity found in its non-private zeroth-order analog. Notably, although the objective is not smooth, we have privacy ``for free'' when $\rho \ge \sqrt{d}\epsilon$.