Risk Modeling papers, 2023–2026

Key findings

• Risk Modeling went from 15 papers in 2023 to 48 in 2026, roughly 3.2x in three years.
• NeurIPS publishes the most Risk Modeling work: 47 papers from 2023 to 2026, 41% of the four-venue total.
• The fastest-growing overlap is with Reinforcement Learning: papers tagged with both rose from 4 in 2023 to 12 in 2026.
• Among the 5 topics under Finance and Economics, it ranks #1 by 2026 paper count; the fastest grower in the group, Macro Forecasting, is up 8.0x versus 3.2x here.

Representative papers

Spread across years and venues so every edition shows up

• NeurIPS 2026CCTimeBoost: Learning Time-Varying Relative Risk with Case-Control Boosted Trees
• ICML 2026A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index
• ICLR 2026SAFER: Risk-Constrained Sample-then-Filter in Large Language Models
• CVPR 2026Spectral Conformal Risk Control Distribution-Free Tail Guarantees via Bayesian Quadrature
• NeurIPS 2025Generating Informative Samples for Risk-Averse Fine-Tuning of Downstream Tasks
• ICML 2025Compositional Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2025Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering
• NeurIPS 2024Evaluating language models as risk scores
• ICML 2024Differentially Private Worst-group Risk Minimization
• ICLR 2024SILO Language Models: Isolating Legal Risk In a Nonparametric Datastore
• CVPR 2024Self-Calibrating Vicinal Risk Minimisation for Model Calibration
• NeurIPS 2023Optimal Excess Risk Bounds for Empirical Risk Minimization on $p$-Norm Linear Regression
• ICML 2023Fast Excess Risk Rates via Offset Rademacher Complexity
• ICLR 2023Avoiding spurious correlations via logit correction
• NeurIPS 2026Hidden Tails: Certifying Tail-Risk Claims under Selective Labels
• ICML 2026Disentangling Latent Risk Pathways via Bayesian Hypergraph Inference
• ICLR 2026Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment
• CVPR 2026CoRiM Conflict-driven Risk Minimization for Dynamic Multimodal Fusion
• NeurIPS 2025Risk Bounds For Distributional Regression
• ICML 2025Structure-informed Risk Minimization for Robust Ensemble Learning

All Risk Modeling papers

25 papers, page 1 of 1

1. NeurIPS 2026Anytime-Valid Conformal Risk Control
2. NeurIPS 2026Benchmarking Risk Attitudes of LLMs
3. NeurIPS 2026Bridging Risk Approximation Gaps in Model Predictive Task Sampling via In-Context Modeling
4. NeurIPS 2026CCTimeBoost: Learning Time-Varying Relative Risk with Case-Control Boosted Trees
5. NeurIPS 2026CompilerKV: Risk-Adaptive KV Cache Compression via Offline Experience Compilation
6. NeurIPS 2026DiffRisk: Diffusion Representation Learning with Informative Missingness for Health Risk Prediction
7. NeurIPS 2026Distribution-First Framework for Learning Risk-Sensitive Individualized Treatment Rules
8. NeurIPS 2026Ensemble Modeling for Time Series Forecasting: an Adaptive Robust Optimization Approach
9. NeurIPS 2026Finite Time Analysis of Risk-Sensitive RL via Noisy Power Iteration
10. NeurIPS 2026Hidden Tails: Certifying Tail-Risk Claims under Selective Labels
11. NeurIPS 2026KVFocus: A Perturbation-Theoretic Token-Risk Score for Selective KV Cache Reuse in RAG
12. NeurIPS 2026Long-Term Risks of Risk-Based Allocation
13. NeurIPS 2026NNCoxKL: Risk-Set Distillation from Probability-Free Prognostic Teachers for Deep Cox Models
14. NeurIPS 2026Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control
15. NeurIPS 2026Optimal Risk Bounds of Stochastic Gradient Descent for Shallow ReLU Networks
16. NeurIPS 2026Progressive Risk Estimation for Accident Anticipation
17. NeurIPS 2026Retrieval-Augmented Diffusion Modeling for Stochastic Discount Factor Portfolios
18. NeurIPS 2026Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies
19. NeurIPS 2026Risk-guided Estimation-aware Acceptance for Learning with Synthetic Data
20. NeurIPS 2026Risk-Sensitive Deep Optimal Stopping
21. NeurIPS 2026Statistical Estimation of Adversarial Risk in Large Language Models under Best-of-N Sampling
22. NeurIPS 2026Steering Externalities: Benign Activation Steering Unintentionally Increases Jailbreak Risk for Large Language Models
23. NeurIPS 2026Tail-Risk-Aware Stackelberg Learning
24. NeurIPS 2026Training Generalizable Collaborative Agents via Strategic Risk Aversion
25. NeurIPS 2026WURI: Watching Unfolding Risk in Agent Interactions

FAQ

How many Risk Modeling papers were published at NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML and CVPR from 2023 to 2026?

115 in total: 15 in 2023, 26 in 2024, 26 in 2025, 48 in 2026.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at NeurIPS 2026?

NeurIPS 2026 has 25 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICLR 2026?

ICLR 2026 has 6 Risk Modeling papers, versus 9 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at ICML 2026?

ICML 2026 has 14 Risk Modeling papers, versus 8 the year before.

How many Risk Modeling papers are at CVPR 2026?

CVPR 2026 has 3 Risk Modeling papers.

Which conference publishes the most Risk Modeling papers?

NeurIPS, with 47 papers from 2023 to 2026.