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arXiv

Schedule-Informed Temporal Fusion Forecasting of Hourly Airport Security-Checkpoint Throughput

Yinxiao Zhang, Sen Wang, Yi Gao

Checkpoint staffing requires accurate forecasts of when screening demand will occur, yet flight schedules record departure times rather than passenger arrival times at security checkpoints. This study develops a framework that converts known flight schedules into temporally aligned signals for forecasting hourly checkpoint throughput. Using 2023-2024 Transportation Security Administration throughput data and Cirium Diio flight schedules for Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, domestic and international seat capacity was distributed across pre-departure hours using truncated Poisson kernels. A Temporal Fusion Transformer then combined these schedule-derived arrival-intensity signals with historical throughput, scheduled activity, and temporal variables. Models were trained chronologically, with July-December 2024 reserved for testing, and evaluated against recurrent neural network and long short-term memory models across five random seeds. For direct six-hour forecasts, the proposed model achieved a weighted mean absolute percentage error of 9.33%, compared with 12.16% for the recurrent neural network and 11.37% for long short-term memory, while also producing the lowest errors during peak periods. With six-hour recursive updates, errors remained between 10.60% and 11.04% across 24-96 hour horizons, although longer horizons contained fewer valid forecast origins. By transforming scheduled departures into interpretable pre-departure screening-load signals without requiring passenger-flight matching, the framework supports advance staffing, lane-opening, and multiday checkpoint planning. Because observed throughput reflects realized processing rather than unconstrained arrivals, the forecasts should be interpreted together with local staffing, capacity, queue, and wait-time information.

arXiv

AIC-VDS: Attention-Based In-Context Learning for Joint Velocity Control and Data Collection Scheduling in Multi-UAV-Assisted Pipeline Monitoring

Yousef Emami, Miguel Gutierrez Gaitan, Atefeh Hajijamali Arani, Jingjing Zheng, Hao Zhou

Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly deployed for autonomous inspection and sensor data collection in large-scale infrastructure monitoring applications, such as pipeline monitoring, where timely anomaly detection is critical. Jointly optimizing data-collection schedules and flight velocities is a critical challenge, as inefficiencies can increase packet loss and inspection latency. While online deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is a widely investigated approach, it suffers from low sample efficiency, substantial training requirements, and simulation-to-reality gaps in time-sensitive scenarios. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative through in-context learning (ICL); however, their substantial input requirements can introduce considerable computational and communication overhead. To address this, we propose Attention-Based In-Context Learning for Velocity Control and Data Collection Scheduling (AIC-VDS), a joint optimization framework designed to minimize packet loss under partial and potentially outdated local network-state information. AIC-VDS utilizes an attention module to process real-time network-state data, including sensor battery levels, sensor queue lengths, communication channel conditions, UAV locations, time since the previous sensor visit, and sensor urgency scores. This module extracts task-relevant features to reduce input overhead before querying the LLM. The LLM leverages these compressed natural-language prompts to generate adaptive data-collection schedules and velocity-control decisions for UAV execution. Simulation results show that the attention-based representation reduces the average prompt length by 50\%, while AIC-VDS rapidly stabilizes packet loss in the considered scenario.

arXiv

Rubrics as Privileged Information for Open-Ended Generation

Deepika Bablani, Ajay Gupta, Wanming Chen

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD), where a single model acts as both student and teacher with different contexts, has shown promise in verifiable domains like math, where hard privileged information (PI) in the form of ground-truth answers structurally constrains valid continuations. We extend OPSD to open-ended generation using soft PI in the form of rubrics that guide preferences but admit many valid responses. Rubrics have served as scalar rewards for reinforcement learning (RL); we show that they provide substantially richer signal as dense PI for distillation, and contrary to intuition, soft rubric PI provides a larger and more effective training signal on student roll-outs than hard reference completion PI in this regime. A reference completion is one point in a set of valid responses, so distilling towards it over-constrains the student, while rubrics specify the preference structure shared across the set of valid responses. We show the effectiveness of using rubrics as PI for open-ended generation across Qwen and Llama model families and show that it outperforms rubric-as-reward (RaR) RL using HealthBench, a benchmark that grades open-ended health responses against physician-created rubrics, providing dense token-level supervision for open-ended tasks; RuPI beats RaR RL by up to +0.10 absolute score and, under matched recipe and KL direction, beats reference-PI by +0.034 to +0.079 absolute score across three models. We further show that these findings generalize to training on the RubricHub Science corpus and evaluating on ResearchQA: soft rubric PI outperforms both reference-PI distillation and RaR RL (66.6% vs. 64.2% and 57.6%).

arXiv

Sedentary Behavior Classification for Wearable Sensors with a CNN-BiLSTM Model

Yuliang Chen, Weiwei Shi, Jingjing Zou, Rong Zablocki, Animesh Kumar, Jordan A. Carlson, Sheri J. Hartman, Mikael Anne Greenwood-Hickman, Paul R. Hibbing, Marta Jankowska, Jay Yang, Arun Kumar, Loki Natarajan

Accurate detection of sedentary behavior is important for studying health risks related to prolonged sitting, but posture-based classification remains challenging with wearable sensors, especially at the wrist. We study whether a deep learning model trained on hip-worn accelerometer data can transfer to wrist-worn accelerometer data for sitting versus non-sitting classification. We use CHAP, a CNN-BiLSTM model originally developed for hip accelerometers, and evaluate its zero-shot performance on wrist data as well as its adaptation through finetuning with varying amounts of labeled wrist data. Experiments are conducted on the iWatch dataset with ground-truth posture labels derived from wearable cameras. The hip-trained model performs strongly on hip data without retraining, but accuracy drops on wrist data due to sensor placement shift. Finetuning CHAP provides consistent advantages over transformer models trained from scratch. These findings suggest that hip-based pretraining provides a useful starting point for wrist deployment, while highlighting the need for wrist-specific adaptation to handle higher signal variability.

arXiv

Federated generative event models for tokenized electronic health records

Michael C. Burkhart, Luke Solo, Inhyeok Lee, S'Khaja Charles, Zewei "Whiskey" Liao, Kaveri Chhikara, Dema Therese, Wan-Ting Liao, Catherine A. Gao, William F. Parker, Brett K. Beaulieu-Jones

Electronic health record foundation models are limited by institutionally siloed data and substantial performance degradation under cross-site transfer. We evaluated federated training of tokenized generative event models (GEMs) across 122,251 intensive care hospitalizations from three independent health systems harmonized to the Common Longitudinal ICU Data Format. Models were assessed on 12 post-24-hour clinical prediction tasks using within-site, cross-site, centralized, and federated training configurations. GEMs achieved the highest mean within-site and cross-site ROC-AUC and were substantially more transportable than conventional supervised models: their average cross-site penalties were 0.025 ROC-AUC and 0.027 PR-AUC, compared with 0.079 and 0.089 for LightGBM. Federated Learning (FedAvg and FedAvgM) approached the performance of centralized GEM training, with most gains obtained within 5-10 communication rounds. However, centralized multi-site training provided only modest improvements over complete local training. Multi-site models were most useful when local training data were limited, with their advantage narrowing as institutional data accumulated. These findings show that federated GEM training is technically feasible and preserves most centralized performance, but that the main open challenge is learning transportable representations to translate larger, but heterogeneous data from multiple health systems into a reliable target-site benefit.

arXiv

When Should Graph Attention Be Sparse? Learning a Per-Edge Tsallis Index

Kleyton Da Costa, Bernardo Modenesi

Graph attention normalizes neighborhood scores with softmax, the maximum-entropy choice under Shannon statistics. But homophilic and heterophilic graphs want different attention shapes, and one fixed normalization cannot serve both. We propose \textbf{LTGA} (\textbf{L}earnable \textbf{T}sallis \textbf{G}raph \textbf{A}ttention), a graph attention layer whose Tsallis entropic index $q$ is learned jointly with the weights, interpolating continuously between heavy-tailed ($q\!<\!1$), softmax ($q\!=\!1$) and compact-support ($q\!>\!1$) attention at four granularities from a global scalar to a per-edge index, under a bounded reparameterization that starts every model at the GAT baseline. Across eight benchmarks at ten seeds, LTGA-Edge takes the best average rank ($2.75$), but the omnibus test does not reject ($p\!=\!0.199$) and learning $q$ does not beat searching it: a validation-tuned frozen grid reaches $61.4\%$, tuned $α$-entmax $62.2\%$ and a capacity-matched $q\!\equiv\!1$ control $62.0\%$, against $61.7\%$ for LTGA-Edge. What the learned index buys is one run instead of a grid, and an interpretable mechanism: where $q$ leaves $1$, it prunes $42\%$ of attention coefficients to exactly zero, and those edges are selectively the wrong ones, restoring them costs $7.1$ points, while random pruning at the same rate costs $13.0$ more. Project page: https://kleyt0n.github.io/ltga

arXiv

ScoreField: Neural Inverse Scattering with Score-Based Generative Priors

Wenhan Guo, Yuan Gao, Yu Sun

Designing an effective electromagnetic inverse-scattering solver requires faithful enforcement of nonlinear full-wave physics together with an expressive prior on the unknown permittivity contrast. We propose ScoreField, a neural inverse scattering framework that integrates coupled implicit neural representations (INRs) with a pretrained score-based generative prior. ScoreField employs two INRs to parameterize the permittivity contrast and the induced current fields, and jointly optimize them under the Lippmann-Schwinger equations. In addition to the implicit regularization by the INR architecture, the score model provides a learned prior gradient on the contrast, which is propagated to the contrast INR through the chain rule. This formulation enables ScoreField to effectively handle strong multiple scattering, where nonlinear wave interactions require accurate modeling of the coupled full-wave physics. We evaluate ScoreField on simulated weak- and strong-scattering benchmarks, the canonical Austria phantom, and experimental Fresnel measurements. We note that ScoreField significantly improves reconstruction fidelity and suppresses artifacts relative to classical full-wave methods and deep learning baselines, achieving an average PSNR improvement of $1.8 \, \mathrm{dB}$ over the best competing method on real Fresnel data.

arXiv

Forecasting Revenue with its Customer-Base Drivers: When and Why Coordination Helps

Kyeongbin Kim, Daniel McCarthy, Dokyun Lee

Revenue forecasts guide acquisition budgets, demand planning, and customer-based valuations, yet an aggregate forecast does not show whether change reflects acquisition, repeat purchasing, spending per order, or offsetting movements. Using weekly transaction panels for 966 companies in 25 industries, the authors develop the Customer-Based Multi-task Transformer (CBMT), which learns shared structure, retains separate primitive forecasts, and aligns their combination with downstream revenue. CBMT's mean total-sales error is 30% below the strongest representative established customer-base benchmark. It is also 2.65% below a Transformer that forecasts total sales directly, although the paired difference is not statistically significant (p=.222), and it beats separately estimated single-task forecasts for 74.3% of firms. CBMT's source MAE is lower in 23 of 24 benchmark-by-outcome comparisons, with the remaining difference not statistically distinguishable from zero. Firms whose primitives co-move more strongly are more likely to benefit from joint forecasting; selected-family scenario-3 comparisons are consistent with gains from shared representation and revenue alignment but remain diagnostic rather than causal. Accuracy deteriorates for all models when customer-base dynamics are highly volatile, and CBMT's advantage narrows there. Calibration-period routing rules do not improve average accuracy over always deploying CBMT. The results show how coordinated customer-base forecasts support revenue planning and when they warrant greater caution.

arXiv

Bayesian Data Reweighting Improves Multimodal Retrieval for Knowledge-Based Visual Question Answering

Jingchen Sun, Shaobo Han, Ruiyi Zhang, Naresh Kumar Devulapally, Ming Liu, Yitao Long, Vishnu Suresh Lokhande, Changyou Chen

Multimodal retrievers are essential for knowledge-based visual question answering, where they retrieve external evidence for image-question pairs. However, existing contrastive training methods typically treat all unmatched query-document pairs as equally informative negatives, which is problematic because many unmatched documents may still be semantically relevant or partially useful. We propose Bayesian Data Reweighting, a probabilistic framework that models query-document importance as latent variables and adaptively infers posterior weights to downweight likely false negatives. With closed-form posterior updates under conjugate priors and stochastic EM optimization, our method consistently improves retrieval accuracy across three retrievers and seven knowledge-based VQA benchmarks.

arXiv

MEGRAG: Multi-Granular Evidence Graphs for Answer-Aware Multi-Hop RAG

Weidong Bao, Yingying Sun, Jun Yang, Yilin Wang, Zili Wei, Yubin Bao, Fangling Leng, Minghe Yu, Tiancheng Zhang, Ge Yu

Multi-hop question answering is a fundamental challenge in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), because deriving an answer requires integrating dispersed evidence. Iterative RAG (iRAG) is widely used for this challenge, but existing methods have two limitations. First, most methods still support each reasoning step with single-granularity evidence, making it difficult to balance information density and contextual noise. Second, existing methods often answer the original question only after aggregating evidence retrieved across intermediate steps, so redundant evidence and intermediate retrieval errors may accumulate and degrade the final answer. To address these limitations, we propose MEGRAG, an answer-aware framework that represents multi-hop reasoning as a path-structured multi-granular evidence graph. Offline, MEGRAG links passages to their sentences and extracted triples through a cross-granularity index. Online, it retrieves passages for the current query and selects aligned evidence, starting with compact triples and adding sentence or passage context as needed. MEGRAG uses the resulting intermediate answer and prior reasoning to decide whether the Initial Query has been resolved. If not, it identifies the missing information and formulates a focused next query; otherwise, it stops retrieval and returns the answer. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent gains over a diverse set of RAG baselines.

arXiv

PAC Approximation and DIRECT Optimization for Parametric Markov Models

Zhiming Chi, Ying Liu, Andrea Turrini, Lijun Zhang, David N. Jansen

In this paper, we consider the parameter synthesis and optimization problem for parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs), the extension of classical MDPs where exact probability values are replaced by parametric expressions. Computing the rational function $f_{\lsf}$ that maps parameter valuations to the satisfaction value of a PRCTL property $\lsf$ is a computationally expensive task, particularly for pMDPs where the optimal policy may vary across the parameter space. We adopt the \emph{scenario approach} to efficiently synthesize a probably approximately correct (PAC) approximation $\ApproxFunOfProperty{f}$ of $f_{\lsf}$: by sampling parameter configurations and solving a linear program, we obtain a polynomial approximation whose error margin $\margin$ is guaranteed, with prescribed confidence, for all but an $\errorRate$-fraction of the parameter domain under the sampling distribution. We further show how this PAC framework can be combined with statistical model checking (SMC), enabling the analysis of black-box parametric models. Building on the PAC approximation, we integrate the DIRECT (DIviding RECTangles) algorithm for derivative-free global optimization over the parameter space. We establish conditional optimality-gap guarantees: under explicit Lipschitz and PAC-good-set assumptions, the difference between the true optimum $f_{\lsf}(\parameters^{*})$ and the value found by DIRECT is bounded by a partition-diameter term and, in the PAC case, an additional approximation-error term. An empirical evaluation on 2997 benchmarks focuses on the new DIRECT-based optimization component. The results show that DIRECT variants solve fewer instances than the scenario optimizer, but on their common successful instances they often return slightly better objective values and usually run faster, while remaining close to the scenario values within the PAC margin.

arXiv

From Profiling to Synthesis: Benchmarking Implicit Behavioral Alignment in Personalized LLM Agents

Jiajia Song, Bobo Li, Haiwen Yi, Zibo Ji, Meishan Zhang, Hao Fei, Min Zhang, Mong Li Lee, Wynne Hsu

Large Language Models have enabled increasingly capable autonomous agents, yet personalization remains critical for making such agents practically useful. Recent benchmarks have begun evaluating personalization in agents, but they largely rely on static preference snapshots, fixed interaction logs, or question answering over predefined user profiles. Such designs fail to capture the complexity of evolving user preferences and neglect preference-conditioned task execution-a discrepancy we term as the knowledge-to-action gap. To address this challenge, we introduce IBA-Bench, a benchmark for implicit behavioral alignment constructed from longitudinal interaction histories that contain noise, implicit cues, and temporal inconsistencies. Unlike prior work, IBA-Bench evaluates whether an agent can execute tasks while satisfying implicit user constraints inferred from historical interactions. We further propose IBA-Agent, an agent framework that reconciles conflicting priorities through broad retrieval and trajectory-level alignment. Experiment results on IBA-Bench show that effective personalization remains a significant challenge for state-of-the-art LLM agents, and the proposed IBA-Agent substantially improves behavioral alignment in complex scenarios across nine application domains.

arXiv

Robust Counterfactual Policy Optimisation via Nondeterministic Causal Models

Jessica Lally, Milad Kazemi, Nicola Paoletti, David Watson, Sander Beckers

Counterfactual inference approaches for sequential decision-making typically assume deterministic causal models, where all randomness stems from latent variables. However, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are inherently stochastic. We address this by formalising counterfactual policy optimisation under probabilistic nondeterministic causal models, which properly separates latent confounding from irreducible stochasticity, and here propose a first practical optimisation problem for identifying robust counterfactual policies under a sensitivity analysis framework. We validate our approach on a sepsis treatment simulator, where diabetes status acts as a hidden global confounder.

arXiv

Population-Robust Feature Selection via Generalized Welfare Optimization

Ruiqi Lyu, Alistair Turcan, Bryan Wilder

Choosing which features to collect is a deployment decision: the same limited questionnaire, test panel, or sensor set may need to serve several heterogeneous populations. Standard feature-selection methods typically optimize for one large population, while existing robust approaches tend to learn one shared model for every population. We introduce PopFS, a method for learning one shared, deployable feature set that is robust to population differences while letting each pop- ulation train its own model. PopFS uses a tunable welfare objective that lets practitioners balance overall predictive ben- efit against stronger protection of the populations that benefit least. To make this objective practical at scale, PopFS first uses multitask sparse learning to reduce the candidate pool, then searches directly over hard feature sets by ranking promising additions and swaps and fully refitting only a shortlist. Across eight population splits from six prediction tasks drawn from five tabular and public-health datasets, PopFS consistently achieves strong average and worst-population performance while scaling to thousands of candidate features. A 43-state COVID-19 nowcasting study further shows that changing the welfare objective can improve the least-served states with lit- tle change in average performance and yields an interpretable change in the selected symptom signals. Our code is available at https://github.com/Rachel-Lyu/PopFS.

arXiv

GoT-CD: Graph-of-Thoughts Causal Discovery and the Fragility of Post-hoc Path-Specific Fairness Audits

Nitish Nagesh, Elahe Khatibi, Thomas Dean Hughes, Mahdi Bagheri, Pratik Gajane, Amir M. Rahmani

Causal discovery recovers directed structure from observational data and is increasingly used in clinical settings to support mechanism reasoning and fairness audits of predictive models. Path-specific counterfactual fairness asks whether a protected attribute influences an outcome through illegitimate pathways, but these estimands are defined relative to a supplied causal graph and therefore inherit whatever errors the discovery step introduces. Discovery methods are routinely scored on aggregate structural metrics that weight all edges equally, and no established evaluation asks whether the specific pathway an audit depends on survives discovery---or what the audit reports when that pathway is missing. Here we show that full-graph Graph-of-Thoughts reasoning yields acyclic discovered graphs that are structurally competitive with large language model (LLM) baselines, yet that structural fidelity alone does not guarantee fairness-faithful audits. We introduce GoT-CD, in which the reasoning unit is a complete candidate edge set: multiple graphs are generated in parallel, scored by a deterministic validity function, and merged under a hard union constraint that forbids invented edges, with greedy projection enforcing a DAG before commitment. GoT-CD returns a valid DAG on all five reported benchmarks and achieves the best DAG-valid F1 score among LLM methods on Asia, Alzheimer's, and COVID-Respiratory datasets. On an Alzheimer's benchmark with known unfair path, a post-hoc path-specific audit shows that five of eight discovered graphs recover no path from the sensitive attribute to the outcome and therefore report a null overall effect while mediated effects persist, necessitating downstream path-specific fairness analysis along with structural discovery.

arXiv

From Simple QA to Deep Research: A Verifiable Benchmark Constructed through Iterative Task Evolution

Can Wang, Haoran Chen, Haowen Gao, Hao Ding, Zhaoyang Liu, Zhiying Tu

Deep research benchmarks require expert-level tasks and reliable evaluation grounded in task-specific knowledge. Existing benchmarks rely heavily on expert authoring or pre-existing human-authored materials, while fully automatic construction struggles to ensure consistent and traceable verification. To address this gap, we introduce a verifiable benchmark of 500 deep research tasks spanning 31 topics and 10 major categories, with three query forms designed to probe complementary capabilities required for deep research. The benchmark is constructed automatically using an iterative Explorer-Formalizer-Challenger pipeline that progressively transforms simple questions into deep research tasks. Each task is represented as a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of atomic steps and associated checkpoints, enabling the query, DAG, and rubrics to evolve together in a controlled manner. Experiments demonstrate that the benchmark clearly discriminates among models and query types, while its fact-grounded pointwise rubrics enable fine-grained, human-aligned, and stable evaluation. Our data, implementation, and results are publicly available.

arXiv

Lossless Tensor Compression as Program Synthesis

Jieke Shi, Junda He, Wenjia Jiang, Weifeng Sun, Shidong Pan, Zhensu Sun, Chengran Yang, Peixin Zhang, Yifan Jia, Zhou Yang, Thong Hoang, Xiwei Xu, Zhenchang Xing, David Lo

Model checkpoints are growing in both number and size, which makes archival, transfer, and deployment increasingly costly. General-purpose compressors can reduce storage requirements but ignore tensor structure, whereas existing tensor-specific compressors rely on fixed and format-specific pipelines. We present Brevis, which formulates lossless tensor compression as program synthesis. We design a typed domain-specific language (DSL) that captures recurring tensor structures, such as repeated regions and floating-point fields, through a set of reversible operators. Given a tensor, Brevis synthesizes a self-contained DSL program that reconstructs it bit-exactly. A checkpoint-specific production prior, learned from a small representative sample of tensors, guides a bounded A* search to synthesize compact programs, which can later be executed directly for bit-exact decompression. On 10 public checkpoints spanning language, audio, and image generation models, Brevis reduces 2.13 TB of checkpoint data to 1.41 TB, a 33.93% storage reduction. It produces archives up to 30.87% smaller than those of four general-purpose compressors, including zstd and gzip, and smaller archives than the tensor-specific compressors ZipNN and DFloat11. Under a practical concurrency configuration, Brevis achieves 3.60 GB/s compression and 6.61 GB/s decompression while preserving every source byte.

arXiv

Contrast-invariant deep ptychography neural networks

Albert Vong, Steven Henke, Oliver Hoidn, Hanna Ruth, Junjing Deng, Apurva Mehta, David Shapiro, Alexander Hexemer, Nicholas Schwarz

Ptychography neural networks suffer from scaling inconsistencies when generalizing out of distribution, limiting their real world viability. We address this scaling mismatch using a factorization strategy which decouples the learned object texture from measurement scaling, enabling a single trained network to produce measurement-consistent reconstructions across varying illumination conditions. This requires predicting the learned object in real and imaginary units instead of the canonical amplitude and phase representation. We additionally introduce a synthetic object sampling strategy that minimizes phase distribution mismatch between synthetic training data and experimental targets. These improvements yield up to a 5x reduction in Fourier error over the previous PtychoPINN-torch baseline across 5 experimental datasets spanning multiple beamlines and facilities.

arXiv

Adaptive Sampling for Automated Post-Disaster Rapid Damage Assessment via Level-Set Cost-Aware Bayesian Optimization

Boyang Xu, Mostafa Reisi Gahrooei, Mohammad Ilbeigi, Hao Yan

Natural disasters frequently inflict severe damage to the built environment, which demands a rapid, reliable, and cost-effective damage assessment for emergency response. However, traditional methods for post-disaster damage assessment often rely on static, labor-intensive data collection strategies that can be prohibitively expensive and struggle to adapt to dynamic post-disaster conditions. In this study, we propose a cost-aware Bayesian optimization framework combined with level-set estimation that continuously guides autonomous data collectors, e.g., an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), toward the most informative regions. By dynamically updating damage estimates across different geographic zones, our approach systematically reduces uncertainty while minimizing operational costs. The proposed framework is first validated using a controlled synthetic toy study, demonstrating the agent's ability to efficiently trace damage boundaries, recover the underlying damage map, and rapidly reduce predictive uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is evaluated using high-fidelity disaster data generated by the Regional Resilience Determination (R2D) software. The results of the algorithm provide accurate and timely damage estimates that support informative and fast emergency response.

arXiv

NOMADD: Numerical Optimization of Models Adapting to Data Drift

Swapn Shah, Keith Burghardt

Tabular model performance degrades when feature distributions change over time or the relationship between features and outcome variables change over time, known as data drift and concept drift, respectively. These issues are challenging to mitigate in real time because labeled data may not be immediately available, or re-training a model could be impractical. While tools exist to reduce drift, they are typically bespoke to neural network architectures and adapt how models are trained. In this paper, we offer an alternative post-hoc method to reduce concept drift, which is applicable to a variety of models, from trees to neural networks to tabular foundation models. This new tool is especially useful when constraints, such as high model accuracy, bounded inference time, or model size requires users to choose between different models for their specific use-cases. Our algorithm fits the base model separately on each labeled training period, measures how its parameters evolve against a single anchor model pooled over all of those periods, compresses those changes with a low-rank factorization, and extrapolates each latent factor forward with a damped, regularized forecast. On the 18-dataset Drift-Resilient TabPFN benchmark, evaluated under that benchmark's own protocol and metric, the extrapolation improves every base family it is applied to, and achieves performance competitive with the state-of-the-art Drift-Resilient TabPFN with seconds of training. In contrast, Drift-Resilient TabPFN requires pre-training on millions of synthetic datasets over approximately 1,300 GPU-hours, and is orders of magnitude slower in inference (depending on the model). In the discussion, we explore the promise and challenges of extending this tool to other modalities.

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