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arXiv

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov

Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mitigates this gap by calibrating near the test point while preserving marginal coverage. Existing theory, however, lacks finite-sample guarantees for the realized localized set that jointly control conditional validity and oracle efficiency. We provide such guarantees. For any fixed score, under Hölder regularity of the conditional score CDF and standard density and kernel assumptions, we prove high-probability bounds, uniform over a realized localization neighbourhood, for the conditional-coverage gap and the length error relative to the oracle. The bounds decompose into an $O(h^β)$ localization bias and a calibration term decreasing with calibration size, clarifying the bandwidth bias-variance tradeoff and when RLCP tracks the oracle. We also analyze data-split learned scores: when the score targets a pivotal score, as in conformalized quantile regression, uniform local guarantees decompose into fixed-score calibration and uniform score-estimation errors, showing that improved learning sharpens localized guarantees.

arXiv

Handling Missing Data in Probabilistic Regression Trees

Taiane Schaedler Prass, Alisson Silva Neimaier, Guilherme Pumi

Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments. This paper extends the PRTree framework to accommodate missing predictor values directly during tree construction, eliminating the need for prior imputation. Three strategies are proposed, each exploiting the available information differently: a uniform-probability approach, a partial-observation approach, and a dimension-reduced smoothing approach. These modifications are defined to preserve the fundamental probabilistic properties of the original methodology, including probability conservation and marginal compatibility, under arbitrary patterns of missing covariate values. The proposed methods are evaluated on several real-world datasets exhibiting different levels of missingness and are compared with classical regression trees. The results show that the effectiveness of probabilistic tree construction depends strongly on the treatment of missing observations. Across the considered datasets, the fill strategy emerged as the dominant modeling component, often exerting a larger influence on predictive performance than either the smoothing distribution or the proxy-selection criterion. In datasets where a substantial proportion of observations contained missing predictor values, the proposed methods frequently outperformed CART, while maintaining the interpretability and flexibility of tree-based models.

arXiv

On Same-Sample and Independent-Sample Stochastic Extragradient for Monotone Variational Inequalities

TaeHo Yoon, Nicolas Loizou

We study stochastic extragradient (SEG) methods for solving monotone variational inequality problems (VIPs) over a feasible set. Although extragradient is a foundational algorithm for VIPs and its deterministic convergence theory is well developed, its stochastic counterpart remains less understood. Most existing analyses focus on independent-sample SEG (I-SEG) and assume either that the domain is compact or that the variance of the stochastic operator is uniformly bounded. The behavior of same-sample SEG (S-SEG), a natural variant with materially different properties, has received far less attention. In this work, we address these gaps in the literature. We first show that S-SEG is sensitive to samplewise Lipschitz parameters: mean Lipschitzness and bounded variance alone do not ensure convergence, even on a compact set. Then, for possibly unbounded domains, we establish a high-probability restricted-gap convergence for each SEG variant under a relaxed set of assumptions, and show that certain fundamental improvements to these results are impossible in general. Finally, we show that a known asymmetric double step-size selection that guarantees almost sure last-iterate convergence for I-SEG can fail for S-SEG: there exists a stochastic monotone VIP for which S-SEG diverges almost surely even under the modified step-sizes.

arXiv

Threshold-Based Early Stopping of Accumulations in Neural Networks with Binary Activation

Quentin Luquet de Saint-Germain, Massil Ait Abdeslam, Jean Pierre David

Binary neural networks are very attractive for constrained deployment, enabling small footprint and low-power inference. For binary activations, the dot products become sign-controlled additions or subtractions, but the number of operations is unchanged. Indeed, every neuron or output channel still accumulates all of its input, even though only the sign will be retained, which is often wasteful. As the accumulation progresses, the running partial sum frequently drifts so far from zero that its final sign becomes highly predictable long before the last term is reached; every contribution evaluated after that point changes the value of the sum but not the final output activation. This paper turns this observation into a post-training early-stopping mechanism. We characterize the behavior of the running accumulations on the training dataset and use this information to predict the final sign as soon as possible. No model parameter is retrained. We count the number of operations under an idealized ordering of weights. On VGG11 applied to the CIFAR-10 dataset, the method removes $86.6\%$ of the accumulation terms of the deepest convolution for a $0.37$-point accuracy drop, and $25\%$ of the full-network arithmetic when used on the three deepest convolutions simultaneously, for a $1.36$-point drop.

arXiv

Verifiable Regularity Criterion for Conditional Expectation Operators and Conditional Mean Embeddings with Applications to Nonparametric Regression, Bayesian Inverse Problems, and Koopman Operators

Maximiliano Hertel, Ilja Klebanov, Manuel Schaller, Karl Worthmann

Conditional expectation operators (CEOs) and their associated conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) play a central role across applied mathematics and machine learning, appearing in nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory. A fundamental question is when a CEO maps a function space on $\mathcal{Y}$ into a prescribed function space on $\mathcal{X}$, particularly a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that such mapping properties are characterized by the regularity of the Radon--Nikodym density of the conditional law, and establish a simple, verifiable sufficient condition under which the CEO is bounded and Hilbert--Schmidt. For RKHSs norm-equivalent to Sobolev spaces, this condition reduces to Sobolev regularity of the conditional density. The result yields a direct route to validate CME representations and error bounds for Galerkin-type and CME-based estimators. We verify the regularity condition in three settings: nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory for stochastic dynamical systems. We show in each case that classical regularity results on the underlying probabilistic model imply the required mapping properties. The resulting framework offers a unified perspective on conditional expectation operators across probability, operator theory, kernel methods, and stochastic dynamics.

arXiv

SkillTFM: Gated Skill Evolution for Training-Free Adaptation of Tabular Foundation Models

Yi He, Zhengkang Guan, Anpeng Wu, Peng Cui, Fei Wu, Kun Kuang

Tabular data are ubiquitous in real-world applications and are crucial for data-driven prediction and decision-making across science, industry, finance, healthcare, and public services. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for general-purpose tabular learning, offering reusable predictors across diverse datasets and substantially reducing the need for task-specific training, tuning, and model development. However, their practical deployment remains constrained by distribution shifts, heterogeneous feature semantics, and task-specific patterns that are difficult to capture without costly fine-tuning or additional labeled data. To this end, we propose SkillTFM, a training-free system that shifts TFM adaptation from parameter updates to the gated evolution of agentic skills. The core of SkillTFM is a verifiable and extensible skill bank that couples boundary evidence identification with gated skill evolution: the former characterizes task structure and base-model failure patterns, whereas the latter retrieves and extends reusable skills subject to explicit validation. Across simulated boundary settings and real-world electricity-price forecasting, SkillTFM improves AUC by 0.128--0.142, raises nonlinear-boundary AUC from 0.699 to 0.898. Furthermore, experiments across TFM backbones demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of SkillTFM.

arXiv

LLM Inference Under Bursty Workload Distribution: Modifying the WAIT Algorithm

Anjali Gangadhar Katageria, Shobha Rani, Raghu Nandan Sengupta

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and Claude are widely used for information retrieval and problem-solving. Recent work has focused on improving scheduling algorithms to boost throughput while maintaining low latency. However, these approaches often assume Poisson request arrivals with constant rates - an assumption that fails to reflect the inherently bursty and dynamic nature of real-world traffic. We propose a lightweight extension to the state-of-the-art WAIT algorithm [1], which adapts to time-varying arrival rates without prior traffic knowledge. The proposed algorithm performs online estimation of request intensity based on observed interarrival times. Using Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP)-based synthetic workloads with diverse request types, we conduct a simulation-based evaluation demonstrating that the proposed method achieves higher throughput than Sarathi-Serve [2], ORCA [3], and vLLM [4] in the evaluated low arrival-rate shift scenarios while maintaining comparable latency.

arXiv

Hardware Keystores for AI Agent Signing Workflows: A Zero-Trust MCP Enforcement Architecture

Leo Sambrook, Sampo Sovio

AI agents performing cryptographic operations (signing Git commits, authenticating API calls, issuing certificates) currently store private keys in software-accessible locations: plaintext files, environment variables, or container memory. Any process with sufficient read privileges can extract the raw key material. A recent production incident demonstrated the practical severity: private keys were exfiltrated from a widely deployed framework via email injection in under five minutes. We aim to enforce both key confidentiality and content-aware authorisation for key use. To that end, we replace software-resident keys with hardware-confined keys accessible through a vendor-neutral PKCS#11 interface. A hardware keystore (HSM, TPM, smart card) executes cryptographic operations on-device; the host receives only the result via opaque handles. Hardware confinement is the primary contribution; it is enabled by a surrounding five-layer Zero-Trust enforcement stack comprising session identity (SAGA), scope bounds (Smax), semantic validation (RAV), taint tracking, and the hardware execution boundary. We evaluate against 12 injection scenarios derived from AgentDojo's ImportantInstructionsAttack template (Debenedetti et al., arXiv:2406.13352). We run four LLM models; three follow injections in baseline mode (gpt-oss-120b, Qwen2.5-72B, DeepSeek-V4-Flash, n=192 combined). Baseline Attack Success Rate (ASR): 19.3% [14.3%, 25.4%]; protected ASR: 0% (Wilson 95% CI upper bound 2.0%). Zero false positives across four benign task scenarios.

arXiv

Kastor: An efficient fine-tuning strategy for generative emulation of PDE simulations

Guillaume Couairon, Alexis Jacq, Yu-Han Wu, Renu Singh, Yana Hasson, Quentin Berthet, Romuald Elie

Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models. However, standard auto-regressive ML emulators often suffer from error accumulation over long horizons and struggle to capture the stochasticity of complex physical systems. In this paper, we propose Kastor, a comprehensive methodology to adapt a deterministic physics foundation model into a highly efficient and accurate generative surrogate. First, we introduce a two-stage inference scheme that combines a large-stride causal auto-regressive model with a non-causal temporal super-resolution network, significantly reducing error accumulation while minimizing computational cost. Second, we present Mean prediction regularization (MPR), a novel training objective that constrains the generative model to predict the deterministic distribution mean under null noise conditioning. This regularization dramatically improves the performance and stability of both Functional Generative Networks (FGN) and diffusion-based emulators. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating spatial gradient matching improves the accuracy and physical fidelity of the simulations as measured by power spectrum density. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulation datasets of the benchmark The Well show that with these components, our model outperforms competing methods in forecasting accuracy, spectral consistency, and computational efficiency. Our model achieves a 42.9% average reduction in forecasting compared to our reference based on the Walrus finetuning methodology, and outperforms Walrus for 8 out of 10 datasets on variance-normalized RMSE (VRMSE).

arXiv

Does Latent Context Help? A Controlled Evaluation of Inverse Reinforcement Learning in Arctic Shipping

Vaishnav Vaidheeswaran, Dilith Jayakody, Biruk Ambaw, Jaswanth Kumar, Md Mahbub Alam, Gabriel Spadon

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-assisted navigation can help Arctic shipping adapt to rapidly changing sea-ice conditions, but reliable deployment requires reward models that are interpretable and robust to changing environments. Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) provides a framework for recovering such rewards from vessel trajectories, while recent meta-IRL methods introduce latent context variables to capture behavioral heterogeneity. However, it remains unclear whether these latent representations recover genuinely hidden preferences or simply re-encode information already available in the observed state. We conduct a controlled evaluation on 3,186 AIS-derived voyages from 202 vessels across nine Arctic shipping seasons, comparing a linear shared reward, a nonlinear shared reward, and a latent-context model built on the same nonlinear architecture. The nonlinear reward improves held-out likelihood by 50.9% over the linear baseline, whereas adding vessel-specific latent context reduces performance by 16.5%. Behavioral analysis, context probes, and a pre-registered feature-hiding ablation show that apparent vessel-level variation is largely explained by observable route and environmental conditions rather than hidden vessel-specific factors. Moreover, predictive accuracy, route fidelity, and reward transfer yield different model rankings, demonstrating that no single metric is sufficient to evaluate learned rewards. These findings motivate testing whether the observed route, environmental, and vessel features already explain behavioral variation before adding per-vessel latent context. This supports more trustworthy AI deployment in safety-critical domains.

arXiv

ML-for-ML

Yutong Zhao, Noga H. Rotman, Gianni Antichi, Ran Ben Basat

AI training workloads are growing rapidly, making their time, energy, and infrastructure costs increasingly important. In shared cloud clusters, training and fine-tuning jobs compete with co-running workloads for network resources, while network mechanisms and ML training choices are typically optimized separately: networking controls how bytes move, whereas ML systems control when and how much communication occurs. We argue that this separation leaves end-to-end performance on the table. We present ML-for-ML, a cross-layer perspective in which network-side and ML-side knobs are selected jointly under a shared time-to-target-loss objective. Our preliminary prototype shows that by co-optimizing the ML and network parameters, we reach the target loss up to 42% faster.

arXiv

Dynamic Graph Prompting via Topology-Routed Mixed-Curvature Experts

Quanxin Wang, Xuanting Xie, Bingheng Li, Xingtong Yu, Shuo Wang, Ruiyi Fang, zhao kang

Dynamic graph prompting freezes a pre-trained temporal backbone and adapts it to label-scarce downstream tasks using lightweight prompts. However, existing methods operate within a single, fixed embedding space. In this work, we reveal that temporal shifts in local clustering and degree heterogeneity actively reorganize the edge curvature spectrum---indicating that the optimal representation geometry dynamically evolves with local topology over time. We formalize this unaddressed mismatch as geometry under-adaptation. To overcome this limitation, we propose CurvPrompt, a topology-routed geometry prompting framework for dynamic graphs. Instead of relying on a single space, CurvPrompt maintains a bank of curvature-diverse Riemannian experts, each paired with a learnable prompt. A topology-aware gate dynamically routes each node--time instance to a sparse subset of experts, constructing a personalized mixed-curvature representation. To ensure parameter efficiency and training stability under extreme label scarcity, CurvPrompt employs soft routing during pre-training to build a continuous topology--geometry mapping, and transitions to hard Top-K routing with uniform weights during downstream adaptation. Extensive experiments across four benchmark datasets show that CurvPrompt significantly advances few-shot link prediction while delivering strong, consistent performance on node classification tasks, validating the necessity of geometry-adaptive prompting.

arXiv

Hybrid-Adaptive Thread Tuning to Mitigate Simulation Execution Bottlenecks in High-Performance Reinforcement Learning Inference

Jiming Su, Hantao Hua, Lujia Yin, Yiping Yao, Feng Zhu

In simulation-in-the-loop decision-making systems, reinforcement learning (RL) inference is often constrained by simulator-side execution overhead, where workloads are highly dynamic and sensitive to runtime thread configurations. Existing multithreaded strategies struggle to match thread resources before or during execution, causing resource contention, scheduling overhead, and reduced throughput. Through empirical analysis, we identify the ratio of task execution time to scheduling time as the key factor determining the optimal thread count. Building on this insight, we propose AutoThread, a hybrid adaptive thread-tuning method for mitigating simulation bottlenecks in RL inference. AutoThread employs a Physics-Informed Neural Operator (PINO) as a thread-count predictor and incorporates a finite-source M/M/1 queueing model to constrain and guide prediction, enabling fast and accurate estimation under dynamic workloads. It further performs load-aware online fine-tuning to compensate for prediction errors and refine resource allocation. Experiments show that AutoThread improves average speedup by 18.4\% over static strategies, achieves average throughput of 1.7x and 1.8x that of XGBoost and Reinforcer, respectively, and reduces execution time by up to 83.8\% compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/suchenjm/AutoThread.

arXiv

BioKD: Selective Physiology-to-Video Knowledge Distillation via Reliability Gate for Emotion Recognition

Bojing Hou, Ruohao Li, Yitong Zhu, Hongjun Liu, Luwen Yu, Yuyang Wang

To address the limitations of video-based emotion recognition under ambiguous or socially masked behavioral cues, as well as the poor deployability of physiological signals, this paper proposes a reliability-aware physiology-to-video knowledge distillation framework, termed BioKD. The proposed framework leverages physiological signals as privileged information during training to guide a video-based student model in learning deep affective representations, while relying solely on non-intrusive video inputs at inference time. To cope with the high noise and instability of physiological teacher supervision caused by inter-subject variability, signal artifacts, and temporal inconsistency, BioKD incorporates a sample-wise reliability-aware gating mechanism together with a progressive distillation strategy. By adaptively regulating the strength of knowledge transfer, the framework suppresses negative transfer induced by unreliable physiological supervision and enables more stable cross-modal distillation. Experiments on DEAP and AMIGOS show that BioKD consistently outperforms representative baselines under both trial-wise and subject-wise evaluation protocols for valence and arousal recognition. For example, BioKD achieves 68.01\% on DEAP (trial-wise arousal) and 65.29\% under the more challenging subject-wise setting, demonstrating improved performance under a subject-independent evaluation setting. Further analyses show that BioKD effectively mitigates overconfident teacher errors and outperforms an entropy-only weighting strategy, confirming the importance of explicitly modeling supervision reliability. In addition, BioKD introduces no additional inference-time overhead relative to the same video student architecture and removes the need for physiological sensing and multimodal synchronization.

arXiv

From Economic Agents to Agentic Economies: A Systems Blueprint for Economic World Models

Jiale Han, Xiang Li, Jing Qian, Wenyuan Gu, Pin Gao, Ye Luo, Hongyuan Zha, Dacheng Tao, Benyou Wang, Lin William Cong

Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes. This paper develops an implementation roadmap for building economic world models as generative engines in which heterogeneous agents act, interact, adapt, and co-evolve with markets and institutions, thereby producing economic dynamics from the inside. We organize EWM systems into a six-level capability ladder, from fixed rule-based agent worlds to adaptive and LLM-based agent worlds, self-evolving agents, evolving institutional worlds, and sim-to-real economic twins aligned with real observations. A systematic literature survey across these levels reveals that existing work remains concentrated in lower-level agent and simulation environments, while systems with self-evolving agents, endogenous institutions, persistent empirical alignment, and validated economic mechanisms remain rare. By translating the EWM agenda into an implementation blueprint, this paper aims to accelerate the development of the next generation of economic simulation environments that can serve as high-fidelity sandboxes for human decision-makers and as training, planning, evaluation, and safety substrates for AI agents. We release a curated paper list and related resources to support future research.

arXiv

ProDVI: Programmatic Dynamics Priors for Value Network Initialization

Xinwei Liu, Junyuan Liang, Jianting Zhang, Wuhui Chen

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is notoriously sample inefficient. One contributing factor is that RL agents are typically initialized from scratch, forcing them to acquire task-relevant knowledge through online interaction. Existing approaches obtain informative initializations through pre-collected datasets, high-fidelity simulators, or meta-learning over related tasks, but these prerequisites may be difficult to access or even unavailable. In this paper, we propose Programmatic Dynamics Priors for Value Network Initialization (ProDVI), a framework that leverages the commonsense and domain knowledge encoded in large language models to initialize RL agents without relying on these resources. Specifically, ProDVI prompts a code-generating language model to produce executable Python functions that encode coarse hypotheses about environment dynamics. These functions are then used to generate synthetic transitions. Based on these transitions, we construct an auxiliary dynamics prediction objective to pretrain the state-action encoder of the value network in an actor-critic framework. The learned representation provides dynamics-aware inductive biases before online RL begins. Importantly, the generated programs are used only for representation pretraining and are not required to faithfully simulate the target environment. While the generated programs may be inaccurate, their induced initialization can be corrected through online learning from real transitions and rewards. Experiments on OpenAI Gym and DeepMind Control Suite tasks show that ProDVI can effectively improve the sample efficiency of model-free RL algorithms.

arXiv

Do Tabular Foundation Models Agree with Themselves?

Christian Klötergens, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-Thieme, Tom Hanika

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) are currently the best approach to tabular prediction problems. They are constructed as transformers that approximate the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution based on a pre-training prior. These univariate predictors can be converted into multivariate ones autoregressively by sampling one target and adding it to the features. However, the faithfulness of the resulting joint has not been investigated. Furthermore, TFMs cannot be evaluated against the posterior itself, at least not on real-world datasets, because the ground-truth distribution is unknown. We therefore propose asking a different question: could a model's predictions result from any joint distribution? To answer this question, we pose two requirements that any such model must satisfy. The first is marginalization consistency, which demands that marginalized conditionals are equal to directly predicted marginals. The second is factorization consistency, which demands that different factorization orders result in equal joint distributions. Every TFM that we evaluate violates both of these requirements for both classification and regression across all datasets.

arXiv

A Unified Risk View of Uncertainty: Posterior Risk for Disentanglement and Evaluation Beyond Proxies

Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, Bálint Mucsányi

Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential. This often requires disentangling epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty, yet these uncertainty types are not defined consistently across the literature, making it difficult to assess whether a method produces accurate uncertainty estimates. Evaluation is further complicated by the fact that ground-truth epistemic uncertainty is typically unavailable. Existing benchmarks therefore mostly rely on proxy tasks such as out-of-distribution detection, which do not provide complete ground-truth uncertainty targets and offer limited insight into the structure and quality of uncertainty estimates. We propose a unified definition of uncertainty as pointwise posterior risk, the expected loss of a predictor under the distribution of plausible ground-truth functions given the data. This view combines Bayesian uncertainty over functions with estimator-dependent deviations from the posterior mean, capturing effects such as misspecification and optimization error. This formulation constitutes the foundation of a theory-backed benchmark that enables direct computation of oracle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using semi-synthetic datasets with real covariates and known generative processes. By avoiding proxy evaluations, the benchmark enables fine-grained analysis of uncertainty estimates. Empirically, we find that accurate prediction does not guarantee reliable uncertainty disentanglement. The benchmark reveals practically useful differences between methods, identifying approaches with meaningful alignment to oracle uncertainty targets while exposing sensitivity to datasets and modeling choices.

arXiv

Observation-Grounded Self-Predictive Reinforcement Learning for Visual Continuous Control

Xinwei Liu, Junyuan Liang, Jianting Zhang, Wuhui Chen

Sample-efficient policy learning from pixels is a long-standing challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Recent dynamics-based representation learning methods have significantly improved the sample efficiency of model-free visual RL by learning dynamics-aware representations through auxiliary prediction performed either in latent space (self-prediction) or observation space (observation prediction). However, state-of-the-art methods from both categories still struggle on challenging visual control tasks when training data is limited. We posit that relying on either predictive objective alone may be insufficient. In contrast, observation prediction grounds learned representations in observation-level dynamics, but does not directly regularize the temporal predictability of latent representations over extended horizons. In this paper, we propose Observation-Grounded Self-Predictive Representations (OG-SPR), a model-free visual RL algorithm for continuous control that learns representations that are both temporally predictive in latent space and grounded in observation-level dynamics. OG-SPR incorporates two core auxiliary objectives: multi-step latent self-prediction and next-observation prediction. We empirically show that directly imposing latent self-prediction on the shared representation may over-constrain it and does not necessarily improve performance. To address this issue, OG-SPR introduces two lightweight adapters for latent self-prediction, allowing the shared representation to benefit from temporally predictive signals without being forced to directly satisfy the self-prediction objective. Experiments on 28 visual control tasks from the DeepMind Control Suite show that OG-SPR improves aggregate performance over state-of-the-art self-predictive and observation-predictive RL methods, with particularly pronounced gains in challenging domains such as dog and humanoid.

arXiv

AgentOPSD: Recursive Self-Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Zi-Han Wang, Zhengxi Lu, Zhiyuan Yao, Jinyang Wu, Jie Wu, Zhengzhou Cai, Yueqing Sun, Ziang Ye, Linji Hao, Qi Gu, Xunliang Cai, Yongliang Shen, Yujiu Yang

Reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards constructs trajectory-level advantage estimates, yet it often fails to credit the few pivotal decisions that determine outcomes in long-horizon, multi-turn agentic tasks. Recent work introduces privileged self-distillation for credit assignment, providing denser supervision, but it remains unclear how such local signals should represent sequential credit. We propose AgentOPSD, a critic-free, recursive method for turn-level credit assignment in agentic reinforcement learning. AgentOPSD aggregates token-level teacher-student log-probability gaps into turn-level evidence and recursively updates a Bayesian belief state in log-odds space. This yields a principled reweighting scheme that converts sparse outcome supervision into turn-level credit signals and identifies pivotal turns through the marginal belief revision between consecutive states. The method is fully compatible with standard policy optimization and requires neither an additional critic nor extra rollouts. We evaluate AgentOPSD on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-QA using Qwen2.5 models at two scales (3B and 7B). AgentOPSD outperforms GRPO and strong self-distillation baselines, achieving 89.1% success on ALFWorld with Qwen2.5-7B. Ablation studies attribute the gains to turn-level aggregation and history-dependent recursive belief updates.

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