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arXiv

LyEvO: Lyapunov-Guided Evolutionary Optimization for Safe and Robust Sim-to-Real Policy Learning

Riccardo Curcio, Hongpeng Cao, Marco Caccamo

Training controllers that are safe and robust in simulation, and systematically assessing their readiness for real-world deployment, remain key challenges in sim-to-real transfer. To address this, we propose LyEvO, a physics-grounded framework that combines constrained Evolutionary Optimization and Statistical Model Checking (SMC)-based verification with Lyapunov-based stability analysis. Leveraging prior knowledge of the system dynamics, LyEvO uses Lyapunov analysis to compute an initial candidate stability region. An iterative loop then uses operational scenarios drawn from this region to jointly optimize and statistically verify a policy, and subsequently expands the region's boundaries based on the verification outcome. This integrated procedure provides a practical criterion for assessing deployment readiness. We evaluate LyEvO on Cartpole and 3D Quadrotor benchmarks through extensive simulations and targeted real-world experiments, demonstrating safe and robust sim-to-real transfer.

arXiv

Fairis: Fairness-Aware Aggregation with Provable Influence Containment against Fairness Poisoning Attacks in Collaborative Machine Learning

Devharsh Trivedi, Nesrine Kaaniche, Nikos Triandopoulos, Maryline Laurent, Jackson Walters

Collaborative machine learning among financial institutions must be both group-fair and robust against deliberate adversarial manipulation. Existing fairness-aware aggregation methods remain formally vulnerable to fairness poisoning: a malicious client maximizing group disparity while preserving accuracy evades accuracy-based Byzantine defenses, and in our threat model FairFed's gap-based weighting can be gamed by an adversary who observes the global fairness score. We present Fairis, a server-side reweighting scheme in which each client's update receives the normalized weight $ω_k = \bar{w}_k / \sum_j \bar{w}_j$ built from the unnormalized score $\bar{w}_k = η- \mathcal{F}_k$, with $\mathcal{F}_k \in [0,1]$ the local Equal Opportunity Difference and $η> 1$ a security parameter. We prove three properties, Monotone Weight Reduction (MWR), Demographic Participation, and Non-Gamesmanship, extend MWR to colluding minority coalitions, and show that combining MWR with server-side norm clipping bounds the adversary's displacement of the global model by $ω_0 C$, strictly decreasing in its own reported disparity. Assuming honest score reporting, an assumption this paper does not discharge, Fairis is the only rule evaluated that guarantees every client strictly positive weight while provably reducing an adversary's weight monotonically in its bias; clipped FairFed can reach a lower weight but guarantees nothing and zeroes a client outright on Taiwan Credit. Against an adversary stealthy enough to evade accuracy-based defenses, within 0.04 accuracy of benign, Fairis cuts its weight by 41 to 54% below a size-blind control on Taiwan. On routine non-IID partitions no rule dominates, and a uniform-weighting ablation shows that containment tracks how far the adversary's score separates from the honest mean, providing none when the honest population is already unfair.

arXiv

FedTransKD-IDS: Robust Federated Transfer Learning with Knowledge Distillation for Intrusion Detection in IoT

Mohammad Hosssein Gholamrezazadeh, Ahmadreza MontazerolghaemAhmadreza Montazerolghaem

In modern distributed network environments, particularly in Internet of Things infrastructures and 5G networks, stringent privacy preservation and scalability requirements have created significant challenges for intrusion detection systems. Although federated learning preserves privacy by preventing data centralization, its efficiency and stability is considerably degraded under severe statistical heterogeneity and resource constraints of edge nodes. To address these limitations, this study introduces the FedTransKD-IDS framework, which enhances both system stability and efficiency by integrating robust aggregation based on the geometric mean, federated transfer learning, and knowledge distillation. Within this framework, the collaboratively trained global teacher model transfers its feature extraction component to lightweight student models. Experimental evaluation on heterogeneous datasets demonstrates a peak detection performance, achieving an accuracy of 99. 18% and a recall of 99. 99%, thereby indicating the effectiveness of structured knowledge transfer in federated environments.

arXiv

Game-Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Modeling Competitive Human Driving: A Cut-in Prediction Study

Yu Song

Capturing the strategic decision-making inherent in competitive human driving is critical for autonomous vehicle safety and traffic simulation. This study demonstrates that game-theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) provides a robust framework for this challenge. We present a comprehensive analysis comparing data-driven IRL models against an established physics-based game-theoretic approach for predicting aggressive, safety-critical cut-in lane changes. Using the high-fidelity highD dataset, we systematically develop and evaluate a series of IRL models with increasing feature complexity. Our results reveal significant advantages: the best-performing IRL models achieve an overall prediction accuracy exceeding 75 percent while maintaining a Cut-In precision up to 51 percent and recall up to 49 percent. This represents a significant improvement over the established physics-based benchmark, which achieved only 4.4 percent precision in these high-stakes scenarios. The analysis reveals a clear trade-off: incorporating granular, instantaneous features yields higher precision, while adding temporal consistency features maximizes recall. These findings suggest that IRL-based models can effectively bridge the gap between microscopic driver intent and macroscopic safety outcomes, providing a more reliable foundation for modeling interactions in mixed-autonomy environments.

arXiv

SNI-GNN: SmartNIC-Assisted Full-Graph GNN Training with In-Network Embedding Prediction

Guofan Yu, Sitian Chen, Zhenheng Tang, Xiaowen Chu, Amelie Chi Zhou

Full-graph GNN training delivers high accuracy but scales poorly on multi-server clusters due to heavy, irregular inter-node embedding exchanges. We present SNI-GNN, a SmartNIC-assisted full-graph training system that reduces communication while preserving accuracy by predicting remote embeddings in-network. SNI-GNN deploys a lightweight linear-trend predictor on SmartNICs to refine cached historical embeddings, coupled with an importance-based boundary-node sampling policy and an asynchronous DPU--GPU data pipeline with intermediate-result reuse. We provide error and convergence bounds showing that predictor bias remains controlled under bounded second-order dynamics and yields standard non-convex convergence with inexact gradients. Implemented on NVIDIA BlueField-3, SNI-GNN integrates with state-of-the-art full-graph systems, cuts communication by 21--45\%, achieves 1.3--3.6$\times$ end-to-end speedups over BNS-GCN and up to 1.29$\times$ over baseline SANCUS, with accuracy loss $\leq 0.01$, and scales efficiently to 16 GPUs on graphs with up to tens of millions of edges. These results indicate SmartNIC-based in-network prediction is a practical complement to partitioning and compression techniques for communication-efficient full-graph GNN training at scale.

arXiv

Fast and Accurate: An Adaptive VLA Inference Framework through Environment-aware Model Selection

Yuewei Sun, Lang Qin, Zechuan Tian, Jingwen Li, Guiqin Wang, Shengzeng Huo, Wenxin Ren, Tao Fang, Xiaochen Zhang, Guanqing Deng, Xiang Wang, Xiaowen Dong, Qinghai Guo, Yuxin Ma

Embodied intelligence demands both long-horizon reasoning and real-time closed-loop responsiveness. Recent dual-system Vision-Language-Action (VLA) architectures combine fast reactive control with slow deliberative reasoning to balance inference speed and task success rate. However, existing dual-process VLAs tightly couple the fast module to intermediate representations of the slow module, necessitating end-to-end joint training and limiting modularity, extensibility and flexible system switching. In this paper, we propose Environment-aware Model Selection (EMS), an adaptive VLA inference framework that switches between two fully decoupled systems of different scales through environment-aware model selection. The large-scale deliberative system provides globally consistent trajectory planning to ensure task success, while a lightweight reactive system enables high-frequency closed-loop control. A reinforcement-learning-based switching policy dynamically selects which system to invoke based on real-time feedback, enabling sparse use of the slow system and thereby balancing pretrained knowledge utilisation with runtime efficiency. Our design offers three key advantages over prior hierarchical VLA frameworks: (1) a fully decoupled and modular dual-system architecture that supports plug-and-play model replacement; (2) an adaptive, environment-aware switching strategy; (3) high-frequency inference for responsive closed-loop control. We extensively evaluate EMS in both simulation and real-world environments. On the LIBERO benchmark, EMS achieves success rates comparable to the large-scale baseline while increasing the effective action frequency to 93.4 Hz. The framework further demonstrates strong extensibility in real-world dual-arm manipulation tasks, where it accelerates task completion while maintaining robust performance.

arXiv

MUGEN: A Unified Framework for Efficient Motion Understanding and Generation

Zhankai Ye, Yukai Jin, Bingyang Wei, Bofan Li, Yusen Wu, Fangyi Li, Shangqian Gao, Xin Liu

Grounding human motion in language, and language in motion, is a central step toward physical AI systems that can understand, generate, and communicate human behavior. Unified motion--language systems first coupled the two directions through a shared discrete motion codebook, but quantization limits generation quality. The strongest generators buy quality back at growing cost: stacked residual codebooks enlarge the representation; masked decoding stages, long autoregressive rollouts, and denoising chains of tens to hundreds of steps stretch inference; even the continuous-latent designs among them reach their latent only through an iterative diffusion head; and none of this decoding machinery serves understanding. We therefore propose MUGEN, a unified motion--language framework that pays neither cost: no codebook, one draw. A single adaptive-length autoencoder compresses any-length motion into a few continuous latent slots, the system's only motion representation: the language model generates them for text-to-motion and reads them back for motion understanding. Depth-routed hidden states let each slot read from the transformer depth it needs, and a calibrated head predicts a joint distribution over the full latent set, so a single draw carries the text-conditional, cross-slot variation a description permits. At a decoding cost of K language-model steps, one draw, and one decoder pass, MUGEN leads language-model baselines on FID on HumanML3D while raising retrieval precision above the real-motion reference under the standard evaluator, achieves the best CIDEr and BLEU@4 scores, and surpasses the discrete-token state of the art on every retrieval and alignment metric on SnapMoGen.

arXiv

RepoProbe: Benchmarking Architecture-Aware Repository Comprehension with Checklists

Yuexi Yang, Alyssa Wu, Ji Luo, Richeng Xuan, Zhichao Hu, Yuhong Liu, Zhen Qin

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into software engineering has shifted the focus from function-level generation to repository-scale assistance. However, existing benchmarks largely rely on bug reports from GitHub Issues, which often allow models to bypass genuine understanding via pattern matching on error logs. This misalignment under-measures Edit Bias, which refers to premature generation, where models prematurely propose code modifications instead of understanding the existing repository architecture. Furthermore, current LLM-as-a-Judge scalar scoring suffers from high variance and low interpretability. This work introduces RepoProbe, a novel benchmark for evaluating repository-level code understanding through open-ended Q&A using GitHub Discussions, which focuses on open-ended architectural inquiries rather than defect reporting. To ensure rigorous evaluation, we propose a Checklist-Based Verification Protocol that decomposes answers into atomic, verifiable facts, thereby replacing subjective ratings with objective verification. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs reveals a persistent gap between high clarity and evidencegrounded technical correctness. It also quantitatively confirms the prevalence of edit bias, in which models prioritize code generation instead of architectural analysis. Finally, we demonstrate that our verification protocol significantly improves evaluation reliability compared to traditional evaluations with scalar scoring.

arXiv

DeepLoop: Depth Scaling for Looped Transformers

Shuzhen Li, Yifan Zhang, Jiacheng Guo, Quanquan Gu, Mengdi Wang

Looped Transformers scale sequential computation by applying a compact stack of physical blocks for multiple rounds, increasing unrolled depth without increasing stored parameters. This reuse changes the residual-scaling problem: in an untied Transformer, each residual branch receives and applies its own parameter update, whereas in a looped Transformer one shared update aggregates gradients from repeated visits and is read back by those same visits in the next linearized forward pass. We formalize this tied-depth effect through a first-order perturbation bound controlled by a visit-alignment coefficient $κ_R$. The bound recovers the DeepNorm exponent when visits decorrelate, but in the conservative aligned regime it requires the exponent to increase from $1/4$ to $1/2$ as loop count grows at fixed physical depth. The resulting method, \textbf{DeepLoop}, keeps the Post-LN DeepNorm architecture and sets $α=(2N)^{1/2}$ and $β=(8N)^{-1/2}$ for unrolled depth $N$. On GPT-style looped language models at GPT-2 small and GPT-2 medium scale, DeepLoop is neutral when no physical block is revisited and improves validation loss and downstream accuracy once recurrent depth is activated. These results show that stable recurrent depth requires residual scaling rules that account for parameter visits, not only nominal layer count.

arXiv

EviGraph: Evidence-Guided Autonomous Research Agents

Zhenjiang Ren, Ruiji Li, Xujing Zhang, Ziliang Pang, Shuo Ren, Jiajun Zhang

Autonomous research agents can generate hypotheses, execute experiments, and draft manuscripts, yet their outputs often contain unsupported claims and inconsistencies between research questions, experiments, results, and conclusions. We argue that this problem is partly architectural: existing systems organize research as sequential pipelines but do not explicitly maintain or validate the evolving claim-evidence structure across stages. In this paper, we introduce EviGraph, an autonomous research framework that represents the research process as a typed evidence graph containing Problem, Gap, Hypothesis, Experiment, Finding, and Claim nodes. The graph serves as the operational state of the agent rather than a post-hoc record. EviGraph inspects evidence chains for missing dependencies, semantic misalignment, and result-claim inconsistencies, localizes the earliest weak node, and regenerates its affected downstream subgraph. Graph checkpointing prevents unsuccessful repairs from corrupting previously validated evidence. Manuscripts are generated only after every retained claim is grounded in a validated evidence chain. Experiments on ARC-Bench-ML and NanoResearch-20 show that EviGraph outperforms the compared end-to-end research-agent baselines in overall research performance, improves Claim Support Rate by 40.19% over the strongest baseline, and achieves 87.73% Experimental Data Consistency. These results demonstrate the value of explicit evidence-state maintenance for reliable autonomous research.

arXiv

When Does Reward Teach State? A Hidden-Automaton Instrument and a Group-Language Warning Signal

James E. Allchin

Does a reinforcement-learning agent that earns high reward actually learn its task's hidden state, or only a shortcut that correlates with reward? We build an instrument that makes this question directly measurable: the task is a hidden finite automaton that the agent partially controls. Because the automaton is known, the best achievable return is computable, and raw reward becomes a normalized score. The true state is also known at every step, so a linear probe can test whether the agent tracks a state it never observes. Measured separately, reward and state learning come apart: weak on-policy RL earns reward while the state probe stays at chance. Whether the agent escapes this shortcut depends on the optimizer, the training budget, and the task's structure. Structure gives an early warning: when the automaton is a permutation (group-language) automaton, a property readable from its transition table before any training, the agent will likely fail to learn the state. On a stratified set of 153 held-out automata the warning is right in 89 of the 103 cases where it fires; its absence, though, is no guarantee of safety. The instrument also tells apart two failures that reward alone cannot: a perception gap, where the linear probe finds no trace of a state the network could have represented, and a planning gap, where the state is decodable yet reward stays low. High reward alone is not evidence that the task's state was learned.

arXiv

Screenshots or Tools? Eliciting Tool Use and Managing Multimodal Context in Hybrid GUI-MCP Computer-Use Agents

Siqi Fan, Minghao Li, Xiaoqian Ma, Wenhui Tan, Xiusheng Huang, Juntong Wu, Liujie Zhang, Shuo Shang, Weihang Chen

Hybrid computer-use agents can act through screenshots or call text tools. We find that having a tool available does not settle which way the effect goes. Under one identical GUI-MCP harness on the OSWorld-MCP benchmark (309 tasks), the same MCP tools improve a reasoning model by +4.0pp and degrade a non-reasoning model by -5.9pp (5 runs each, both beyond 2 SE). What separates the two is tool-decision behavior. The non-reasoning policy ignores, misnames, or falsely terminates around tools. The reasoning model avoids these failures, yet still calls a tool on only 55/309 tasks, 23.9% of the tool-reachable ones. We call this shortfall the adoption gap. Both levels of the problem share one cause: the model already has a cheaper route and is never trained to take it. Multi-turn RL probes that cause. At the action level, a dense tool bonus raises spreadsheet adoption 0.03 -> 0.33 and carries into greedy decoding, but held-out accuracy does not follow. Behavior is steerable; competence is not. The bottleneck lies in tool-call semantics. At the context level, a successful tool call often makes the next screenshot redundant. Dropping it and halving image history cuts input tokens by about a third, at a small accuracy cost. Retraining under the same observation rule removes that cost. The compressed agent then reaches 37.8% against 33.0% for the uncompressed operating point, at 53% of the input cost, and closes the rich-lean gap on a pre-registered degraded subset to zero. Tools help when the model chooses and integrates them, and current hybrid agents leave many such choices unused. Code and checkpoints: https://github.com/redai-infra/hybrid-routing-agent

arXiv

When Compression Scores Cannot Decide: Information Boundaries for Group-Robust LLM Pruning

Andrew Zhang

A stable compression score can still select the worse model. In our dense study, a split-half reliable path-quadratic score predicted a 16.1\% gain, while the selected endpoints were 6.0--7.7% worse than two controls. We ask what a compression statistic can justify when deployment cares about the worst supplied group. We treat each statistic as an information interface. Its observation leaves a fiber of compatible endpoint-risk tables, and only orders fixed across that fiber are identified. Cone and fiber identities quantify the remaining uncertainty, while matched observations reverse endpoint order for pooled moments, group-local moments, and reference-path curvature. Sequential composition adds one state variable: the slack from each group risk to the current maximum. This vector determines every unrestricted one-step response, and a margin condition keeps the active group fixed along paths with bounded relative drift. The experiments follow the same ladder. Across three dense LLMs, an early-preserving allocation reduces worst-group perplexity inflation by 12.6--20.9%; target-matched complete-menu selection improves over its references by 2.7--8.0%. Across all 16 routed layers of OLMoE, pooled endpoint refresh lowers held-out worst-group teacher KL by 15.8% over the best static score. A compute-matched hard-max trajectory ends 32.7% worse than pooled, and neither adaptive trajectory improves excess NLL. Local evidence can narrow a menu. Complete endpoints rank that menu, while multistep claims also require control of the evolving active face and future candidates.

arXiv

PICopilot: An LLM-based Agentic Framework for Assisting Photonic Integrated Circuit Design via Script Generation

Xiaohan Jiang, Zeyu Li, Wei Zhang, Jiang Xu

The rapid development of photonic integrated circuits (PICs) is shifting the design flow from traditional graphical user interface (GUI)-based methods to script-based methods for higher flexibility, portability, and maintainability. However, script-based design introduces new challenges, requiring designers to possess additional proficiency in tool application programming interfaces (APIs) and programming. It also demands greater effort and time because it is inherently less intuitive and more complex than GUI-based methods. As PICs grow in scale and complexity, the productivity gap between design needs and manual scripting capabilities continues to widen. To address this gap, we introduce PICopilot, the first large language model (LLM)-based agentic framework that assists in PIC design via automated design script generation from natural language instructions. PICopilot leverages a multi-agent architecture with a feedback mechanism and a specifically designed retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipeline, achieving a high success rate and reliability. Experimental results on a benchmark of diverse PIC scripting tasks demonstrate that PICopilot successfully completes all 48 tasks and outperforms other LLM-based approaches without incurring substantial extra latency or cost, even solving 21 more tasks than the advanced GPT-5 model with a general RAG pipeline.

arXiv

DASH: Decoupled Adaptive Surrogate - Acquisition Harness for Automated Bayesian Optimization

Changquan Zhao, Yuxiang Sun, Ruihao Zhu, Cheng Hua, Yulian He

Bayesian optimization (BO) relies on a surrogate model and an acquisition function, yet the most suitable choices vary across tasks and optimization stages. Automated Bayesian optimization (AutoBO) addresses this variability by adapting BO components online. However, existing AutoBO methods either adapt one component, leaving the other mismatched and creating a bottleneck, or jointly select surrogate--acquisition pairs under a shared criterion, overlooking their distinct roles: surrogate selection depends on predictive reliability, whereas acquisition adaptation should respond to campaign context.In this paper, we propose DASH, a Decoupled Adaptive Surrogate--Acquisition Harness for large-language- model (LLM)-enhanced AutoBO. DASH selects surrogates by predictive reliability, uncertainty calibration, and ranking consistency; its two-stage acquisition controller periodically reallocates quotas across acquisition functions, builds a BO shortlist accordingly, and delegates final selection to an LLM. DASH also incorporates an integrated harness, consisting of knowledge-guided warm start and structured memory, to ground optimization in domain knowledge and accumulated feedback. Across four chemical optimization tasks, DASH outperforms the best AutoBO baseline by 12.51% in trajectory-level Acceleration Factor and 5.00% in endpoint Enhancement Factor. Results remain strong across LLM backbones, and ablations verify the complementary contributions of all components. Full-table and behavioral contamination checks find no detectable evidence that direct benchmark memorization or source-cell leakage explains these gains.

arXiv

InferQ: A Database-Oriented Benchmark for Quantum Circuits Simulation

Andrei Ilinescu, Aadi Patwardhan, Rihan Hai

Recent work suggests that relational database management systems (RDBMSs) can execute quantum circuit simulation by compiling the simulation into SQL workloads (primarily join-and-aggregate tensor contractions). While early results are promising, they largely focus on a narrow set of highly structured circuits and offer limited support for systematic database research, such as query optimization, physical design, and engine-level evaluation across a broad range of circuits. We present InferQ, a database-oriented benchmark for quantum circuit simulation. InferQ generates general, compositional circuits by assembling subcircuits from a set of circuit templates, emits each simulation task as an RDBMS-ready SQL workload, and extracts circuit and query features (static, graph, SQL, and dynamic) for workload characterization. InferQ also releases a large dataset of 202,975 circuits online, with a web-based viewer to support searching, filtering, and downloading circuits and feature records. In experiments across RDBMS engines (PostgreSQL, SQLite, DuckDB, and Umbra) and the widely used Qiskit Aer simulator, we find that RDBMSs achieve better peak memory usage than Qiskit Aer on more than 50% of the circuits generated by InferQ. Moreover, using InferQ features, lightweight machine learning models (linear and tree-based models) can accurately predict when SQL execution is preferable (with accuracy up to 95.6% for runtime and 97.4% for memory), enabling data-centric simulator selection and opening the door to principled optimization of SQL-based quantum circuit simulation.

arXiv

Shapes from Examples: Foundations of Shape Learning in Recursive SHACL

Bente Gortworst, Cem Okulmus, Magdalena Ortiz, Anni-Yasmin Turhan

SHACL shapes enable data graph validation, making automatic shape learning essential for knowledge graph applications. We investigate the well-known fitting approach to this task: given sets P and N of positive and negative example nodes from an input graph, compute a shape expression C, possibly using shape names defined in a recursive shape catalogue, that validates at every node in P and none in N. We focus on the case where C is written in a core fragment of SHACL corresponding to the Description Logic ELI. For the catalogue, we consider the well-founded, stable, and supported semantics. We address fitting existence and most specific fitting computation, establish tight exponential-time upper bounds for both problems, and obtain polynomial bounds for relevant special cases.

arXiv

The Geometry of Flow-Matching Uncertainty: A Cost-free Uncertainty Proxy and Its Application in Flow-based VLA Failure Detection

Ziyang Rao, Yiren Zhao, Weiyu Guo, Ben Fei, Yandong Guo, Hui Xiong

Flow matching (FM) has become a popular action head paradigm for modern embodied models. However, as a conditional generative model, it does not explicitly expose its inherent uncertainty, producing faulty action chunks even when it misinterprets the scene or encounters out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Therefore, determining when an FM-generated action can be trusted is essential for safe deployment, yet existing uncertainty estimation methods on real-time control suffer from several issues: extra training budget, high computational overhead, and low generalization ability. In this work, we provide a geometric interpretation of FM uncertainty in the velocity field, showing that uncertainty manifests as deviation from an ideal affine-isotropic contraction field. Building on this observation, we introduce denoising acceleration ($\mathrm{accel}$), a highly-generalizable and cost-free uncertainty proxy that measures the bending of the denoising trajectory from a single forward pass, without additional model evaluations, training, or resampling. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate that $\mathrm{accel}$ is a faithful proxy for FM uncertainty and further test its utility in online failure detection. Results show that $\mathrm{accel}$ identifies failing rollouts well before termination, matching or even outperforming costly resampling- and training-based baselines across settings under realistic deployment budget. Code and demos available at: https://github.com/rrrrrrzy/fm-geometry.

arXiv

Localized Anomaly Detection via Differentiable D-vine Copulas

Nicholas Andrea Pearson, Francesca Zanello, Davide Russo, Luca Bortolussi, Francesca Cairoli

Vine copulas provide a flexible framework for modeling complex multivariate distributions through a hierarchical decomposition into bivariate pair-copulas. Fitting a D-vine requires selecting a copula family and parameter configuration for each pair-copula from a set of candidates encoding different dependence patterns. As the number of variables and candidate families increases, the number of possible configurations grows combinatorially. Existing fitting procedures address this challenge through sequential greedy decisions, committing to a single locally optimal family at each step and potentially discarding configurations that would yield a better global fit. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel estimation framework that combines gradient-based maximum likelihood estimation, enabled by our fully differentiable implementation, with a beam-search strategy that maintains multiple competing D-vine configurations throughout the fitting process. This allows a broader exploration of the configuration space while remaining computationally tractable. Building on the fitted D-vine, we introduce a localized anomaly detection framework that exploits the hierarchical decomposition to produce both global anomaly scores and edge-level explanations. Statistical guarantees are provided through Mondrian conformal prediction, while the pair-copula structure enables the localization of anomalies to specific variable relationships. We evaluate the proposed framework on both benchmark and real-world datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness for interpretable anomaly detection with uncertainty quantification.

arXiv

TRW: TRACE-RealWorld---An Auditable Consistency Contract for World Models as Materialized Views

Edward Y Chang

World models let agents plan against predicted physical state, but that state drifts; re-observation is costly and delayed, and repair can fail. We present TRACE-RealWorld (TRW), to our knowledge the first commitment-level consistency contract for world models. TRW treats predicted state as a materialized view and a physical commitment as a read whose authorization can expire. Typed, calibrated claims specify consequence-conditioned freshness and priced verification. Adaptive refresh generalizes dual-Kalman synchronization to consult the world when evidence could change a decision; dependency-scoped SagaLLM compensation repairs reversible commitments invalidated after authorization. Under an event-aligned risk oracle and recovery-liveness assumptions, we prove that synchronization and compensation are insufficient alone, whereas their composition gives a conditional consistency guarantee. Otherwise, the argument yields an auditable decomposition of violations into named debts. We implement TRW in Flood-SAR, a search-and-rescue simulator over real geography, and test six preregistered questions at frozen operating points on held-out seeds. Adaptive refresh reduces stale execution but does not dominate fixed refresh on cost, coverage, or rescue outcomes. Localized repair reduces repair work by 9.56 units per mission and restoration latency by 80.7 seconds relative to global recovery; the observed residual-violation difference is zero without establishing equivalence. Detection coverage is 0.83-0.89, and 10 of 97 invoked restorations are incomplete by mission end. The campaign treats empirical slack as sensitivity inputs rather than discharging the theorem's assumptions or providing a simultaneous population certificate. Exact replay reconstructs a disputed dispatch. TRW thus makes a world model an auditable predictive interface rather than a self-validating source of truth.

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