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arXiv

PRISM: Principled Reference Identification for Schrodinger Bridge Model

Forouzan Fallah, Yezhou Yang

Schrödinger bridge models restore a clean signal from a degraded observation by following the conditional bridges of a reference process, yet this reference is chosen heuristically, typically white noise with a hand-tuned schedule. We develop PRISM, a theory of bridge reference design. We characterize the time-varying Gaussian references that remain exactly tractable with per-mode schedules: precisely those whose instantaneous covariances commute. We then prove an invisibility principle: with the exact drift and unlimited solver steps, every admissible reference recovers the true posterior. The choice of reference therefore matters only under finite computational resources. For a fixed step budget, we derive the finite-step objective in closed form and prove that every optimal noise spectrum is proportional to Pk, the spectrum of information destroyed by the sensor, with a mode-independent constant x*(T) = (2 ln T)^-1/2 (1 + o(1)). The analysis shows that noise color and temporal scheduling are interchangeable, and regularization provably shifts the optimal reference toward white noise. Experiments in Gaussian settings confirm the predicted orderings and the closed-form loss floors. On FFHQ, the distortion-- perception trade-off and spectral localization transfer, but white noise outperforms the matched reference; a pre-registered study that changes the training regime refutes ridge whitening as the explanation. A 2x2 mechanism study then traces the inversion to the non-Gaussian per-mode statistics of real images. PRISM turns reference design from a hyperparameter sweep into a calculation in the Gaussian regime, and locates exactly where real images break it.

arXiv

SkillAligner: Treating Retrieved Skills as Adaptable Drafts at Execution Time

Qinfeng Li, Dalin He, Yuntai Bao, Ying Yang, Ruoxi Chen, Xinyan Yu, Lizhou Liang, Ge Su, Wenqi Zhang, Xuhong Zhang

General-purpose skills promise reusable procedural knowledge for language agents, yet semantic relevance does not guarantee execution utility: a retrieved skill may encode assumptions that conflict with the current task, execution environment, or other retrieved skills. We formalize this problem as the skill--execution misfit. To address it, we propose SkillAligner, a training-free execution-time skill adaptation framework that treats retrieved skills as adaptable drafts rather than fixed instructions. Before execution, SkillAligner performs a one-time joint adaptation that specializes useful skill fragments to task requirements, aligns their procedural assumptions with the available execution interface, and composes the resulting guidance by resolving dependencies, conflicts, and redundancy across skills. The adapted content is consolidated into a compact execution guide and reused throughout the subsequent trajectory. Extensive experiments across diverse agent benchmarks and model backbones show that SkillAligner substantially improves task performance over existing skill-use baselines, reduces skill-induced regressions at the instance level, and lowers total inference cost.

arXiv

Bridging the Gap Between Hyperdimensional Computing and Kernel Methods via the Nyström Method

Quanling Zhao, Anthony Hitchcock Thomas, Ari Brin, Xiaofan Yu, Tajana Rosing

Hyperdimensional computing (HDC) is an approach from the cognitive science literature for solving information processing tasks using data represented as high-dimensional random vectors. The technique has a rigorous mathematical backing, and is easy to implement in energy-efficient and highly parallel hardware like FPGAs and "processing-in-memory" architectures. The effectiveness of HDC in machine learning largely depends on how raw data is mapped to high-dimensional space. In this work, we propose NysHD, a new method for constructing this mapping that is based on the Nyström method from the literature on kernel approximation. Our approach provides a simple recipe to turn any user-defined positive-semidefinite similarity function into an equivalent mapping in HDC. There is a vast literature on the design of such functions for learning problems. Our approach provides a mechanism to import them into the HDC setting, expanding the types of problems that can be tackled using HDC. Empirical evaluation against existing HDC encoding methods shows that NysHD can achieve, on average, 11% and 17% better classification accuracy on graph and string datasets respectively.

arXiv

Mathematical Principles and Experimental Discoveries of the Emergence of Symbolic Patterns in Artificial Neural Networks

Quanshi Zhang, Qihan Ren, Siyu Lou

Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) are often treated as black-box models, making explainability a central challenge in deep learning. Many engineering methods have been proposed to approximately explain the ANN from various perspectives, such as feature attribution and visualization. However, it remains a long-standing open question whether the complex inference logic of an ANN can be explained exhaustively and concisely as sparse symbolic patterns. This raises a deeper inquiry: does the emergence of symbolic patterns reflect a natural law rather than chance? Here, we show that across a broad class of ANNs trained on diverse tasks, their inference logic can indeed be reformulated as sparse symbolic interactions. We further prove that two common mathematical criteria, which are implicitly required across tasks, lead to the emergence of such sparse symbolic interactions. Empirical evidence confirms that the two criteria hold for the majority of input samples in diverse models. Furthermore, the faithfulness of these interactions is also demonstrated by their strong sample-to-sample and model-to-model transferability, as well as their ability to explain the overall generalization power of ANNs. Our theoretical analysis and extensive experiments provide a solid foundation for symbolic explanations of ANNs, and offer novel insights into the ANN's generalization power. Our findings also highlight the potential of communicative learning, a paradigm in which the inference logic of an ANN can be directly inspected and tuned at the level of symbolic patterns, thus complementing traditional end-to-end learning paradigm. Finally, the observed emergence of symbolic patterns in ANNs suggests that similar symbolic representations may also emerge in other types of black-box systems under certain conditions, because our proof does not depend on any specific ANN architecture.

arXiv

Multiscale Reward Hedging from Correct Demonstrations

Pahan Dewasurendra

Learning from correct demonstrations is harder than supervised learning when many answers are correct: after predicting, the learner sees one valid answer but not whether its own answer was valid, nor any reward. Existing reward-hedging guarantees consequently assume a finite reward class. We give the first horizon-free guarantee for continuous classes. The key is to hedge in one shared vote over tolerant optimality tests at every accuracy scale. A target reward has one surviving proxy per scale, and a prediction with gap above that scale doubles the proxy. This yields the simultaneous tail bound $|\{t:\ell_t>2^{-j}\}|\leq \log_2\mathcal N(\mathcal G,2^{-j-1})+j$, where $\mathcal G$ is the class of optimality-gap functions. Integrating the tails gives cumulative hidden gap bounded by a metric-entropy integral, independently of the number of rounds. Polynomial entropy $(A/ε)^d$ gives $O(d\log A)$ total gap and a fast $O(d/m)$ statistical rate. For bounded linear contextual recommendation, the result is $O(d)$ regret for arbitrary compact menus. This is the first polynomial finite bound without structural restrictions on the menus, at the price of improper prediction. Although the general vote can be expensive, it is exactly polynomial-time for one-dimensional Lipschitz parameter curves. Fixed-radius rank-two recommendation takes $O(KT^2)$ time for menus of size $K$. We also prove an $Ω(d)$ lower bound, low-rank and bounded ReLU-network corollaries, and a robust theorem that adds only the demonstrator's cumulative suboptimality. A reproducible adaptive stress test illustrates the predicted scale adaptation. After factorization, an exact MovieLens audit runs in 1.7 CPU seconds across ten users and improves mean latent gap over both a demonstrated-rating policy and a proper online baseline. The learner uses only action demonstrations and never observes a reward or a loss.

arXiv

Weak Adversarial Neural Pushforward Method for Boltzmann Equation

Jenia Fardousi Koly, Andrew Qing He, Wei Cai

In this paper, we extend a weak adversary neural network pushforward method for solving time dependent Boltzmann equation and a weak formulation of the collision operator is proposed where an invertible neural pushforward mapping is used to generating samples given by the distribution governed by the Boltzmann equation. The training of the pushforward mapping is learnt by enforcing the weak form of the Boltzmann equation. Numerical results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

arXiv

Understanding Differentiable Embeddings Through Differential and Integral Geometry

Xinyu Zhang, Klaus Mueller

How can an analyst decide whether a nonlinear dimensionality reduction embedding can be trusted? Existing diagnostics provide only partial answers: projection glyphs characterize local sensitivity, map-continuity scores measure local conditioning, and transport-based analyses reveal path-dependent inconsistencies. However, these methods appear unrelated and provide no common framework for understanding when they agree or not. We show that they are all derived from a single geometric object induced by every differentiable embedding, whether defined implicitly through optimization or explicitly by a learned mapping. This framework provides two complementary geometric views of an embedding. The differential view explains local behavior: its first-order term recovers projection glyphs, while its second-order curvature quantifies how far their linear approximation remains reliable. The integral view follows the same geometry along high dimensional paths and determines whether an embedding depends only on the current state or also on the path taken to reach it. We further show that map-continuity is a prerequisite for the other analyses. The framework is theoretically complete for diagnostics derived from the embedding geometry, and we prove the integral view irreducible: no amount of local measurement at any number of points, to any order of derivative, reproduces what it detects. Classical rank-based metrics form a complementary class based on finite-scale neighborhood relationships. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets validate theoretical predictions, demonstrate accurate curvature-based trust estimates on single-cell embeddings, and show that the integral analysis distinguishes single-valued embeddings from path-dependent optimization-based embeddings in ways that existing pointwise diagnostics cannot.

arXiv

ArchEGraph: A Large-Scale Graph Dataset for Geometry-Topology-Physics Aligned Building Energy Modeling

Yihui Li, Yihui Chen, Kaidi Zha, Xiaoyue Yan, Zhexuan Yu, Shiqi Dai, Jun Xiao, Jun Yin, Ramon Elias Weber, Borong Lin

Accurate estimation of building energy use is essential for achieving carbon neutral and sustainable buildings. To better understand the influence of design decisions on building energy use and calibrate machine learning models that can give architects and engineers rapid design feedback, large-scale datasets are needed that explicitly map building geometry to performance. We present ArchEGraph, a large-scale benchmark dataset that represents buildings as heterogeneous graphs with aligned geometry, topology, weather, and zone-level thermal loads. The dataset contains 5,481 buildings and 49,326 validated building-weather simulation cases. In total, it includes over 133,000 space nodes and 1.44 million face nodes, reflecting substantial geometric and topological complexity. Based on ArchEGraph, we define two benchmark tasks: (i) graph reconstruction from polygonal meshes, aiming to recover topological structure from geometric representations; and (ii) topology-informed load prediction, which leverages graph structure and temporal weather conditions to forecast zone-level response time series. We further introduce standardized evaluation protocols for both tasks and conduct cross-building and cross-climate generalization experiments to assess model robustness. ArchEGraph provides a unified testbed for studying geometry-topology-physics coupling in building energy modeling, enabling the development and evaluation of scalable and generalizable surrogate models.

arXiv

Hidden Gauge Controls Feature Specialization in ReLU Networks

Tongxi Wang

Training changes a network's predictions while allocating task-relevant structure across its internal units. In an overparameterized ReLU network, several neurons can begin with exactly the same functional role, yet one may acquire a teacher feature while the others become redundant. We call the identity of that neuron feature ownership and ask whether it can be controlled by a parameter choice invisible to the initial predictor. In a tractable Gaussian teacher--student model, we fix the complete initial function and vary only a positive-homogeneous scaling gauge. Opposite gauges produce distinct feature trajectories and a sharp $Θ(D^2)$ separation in specialization time that no global change of clock can explain. Among any fixed number of initially duplicate students, assigning the favorable gauge to one neuron deterministically selects it as the owner and drives the remaining functional contribution to zero. An exact reaction--transport decomposition attributes the effect to different mobilities for changing a feature's coefficient and direction. We prove global selection and functional pruning, extend finite-time selection to visible perturbations and small-step full-batch gradient descent, and verify the predicted loss, alignment, pruning, and dissipation trajectories in population and finite-sample training. The initial predictor therefore determines neither when the feature is learned nor which neuron learns it.

arXiv

CubicQuant: Parametric Non-Uniform Codebooks for High-Throughput LLM Inference with 1-8-Bit Weights

Xuetian Gao

Weight quantization for large-language-model inference must balance adaptive reconstruction levels with representations regular enough for efficient GPU execution. Uniform integers constrain each group to a linear grid. Low-bit floating-point formats use a fixed exponent-mantissa structure, while learned codebooks gain flexibility at the cost of irregular decoding and additional metadata. We introduce CubicQuant, a parametric non-uniform scalar format that preserves a dense integer code stream while adapting reconstruction levels within each weight group. A monotonic cubic curve, specified by two shape parameters and one scale, maps uniformly spaced magnitude codes to non-uniform levels. The family spans 1-8-bit weight payloads, contains symmetric uniform integer quantization as an exact special case, and has effective width B + 64/G bits per weight for payload width B and group size G. We derive population distortion under Uniform, Gaussian, and Laplace distributions, formulate continuous and Dynamic-A8-carrier-aware fitting objectives, and describe direct packed-weight GPU execution. For finite groups of G=128 with 15,360 samples per distribution, W4 CubicQuant reduced reconstruction RMSE relative to optimally clipped four-bit uniform integer quantization by 3.90% on Uniform, 13.49% on Gaussian, and 28.14% on Laplace samples. Relative to the best enumerated four-bit finite floating-point format, the reductions were 3.90%, 9.44%, and 6.27%. Preliminary H200 kernel measurements show a workload-dependent crossover: model-dtype execution is faster for narrow GEMV, while Dynamic A8 becomes favorable as row count grows. The results establish the format's representational promise and direct executability; downstream model quality and cross-device end-to-end performance remain open evaluation questions.

arXiv

Sub-Quadratic Bisimulation Metrics via Approximate Nearest Neighbors: Coverage-Augmented Guarantees and Computable Two-Sided Certificates

Ibne Farabi Shihab, Joyanta Jyoti Mondal

Bisimulation metrics quantify behavioral similarity in Markov decision processes, but their Wasserstein fixed-point operator updates every state pair and incurs quadratic pairwise work. We give a certificate-carrying sub-quadratic method for MDPs with bounded transition support and a useful low-dimensional indexing representation: an approximate-nearest-neighbor index selects the pairs updated by the exact restricted operator, while monotone lower and upper runs enclose the exact metric at every sweep. The main analytical result is a coverage-augmented anytime bound: local index quality alone cannot control global error, because uncovered pairs retain their initialization gap. The limiting error is at most $\max(ρ,\eop/(1-γ))$, and with exact covered backups the lower arm satisfies $\|\dann-d\|_\infty=ρ$. Because $ρ$ depends on the unknown exact metric, the algorithm returns the observable sandwich width instead; agreement of the induced lower and upper clusterings certifies exact recovery of the covered aggregation. A reward-oblivious lower bound shows sub-quadratic index-first coverage cannot remove the coverage term, while a separate adaptive lower bound requires $Ω(|\Scal|)$ pair evaluations. Exact-operator experiments verify the identity and enclosure in every seeded run, and timing experiments recover quadratic versus sub-quadratic scaling under both cheap and full Wasserstein backups. On the grouped $|\Scal|=64$ benchmark, exact restricted refinement reaches the exact-metric skyline once retrieval covers roughly half of all pairs, while independently trained MICo and DBC baselines stay $22$-$33\times$ above that skyline at every retrieval budget. Taxi shows the certificate abstaining under an uninformative embedding, while a $2500$-state gridworld improves over a reward-only metric by $28.6\%$ using $12.8\%$ of one quadratic sweep.

arXiv

KReF: Training-Free Retrieval for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting and Predictive Uncertainty

Yang Zhang, Rui Su

Probabilistic long-term time-series forecasting commonly relies on trained models. Training-free conformal methods typically construct intervals around a pre-existing point forecaster and do not natively represent a complete predictive distribution; sequential variants additionally suffer from increasingly delayed feedback at long horizons. We propose KReF, a training-free retrieval framework that treats retrieved historical futures as a querylocal empirical predictive distribution. After robust preprocessing, KReF embeds each lookback using handcrafted statistics or frozen random Fourier features and retrieves similar historical lookback-future pairs. Their similarity weights directly define predictive masses, quantiles, CRPS, and a weighted-mean point forecast. KReF further uses the observed query lookback to construct a probability-integral-transform map and applies validation-selected expansion and shrinkage rates to adapt interval boundaries. Across six LTSF benchmarks and four horizons, KReF obtains the lowest CRPS in all 12 dataset-embedding settings and the lowest IS90 in 9 settings. Without gradient-based fitting, its point forecasts also match or surpass trained baselines on two of six datasets. An archive-oracle analysis further reveals substantial headroom under finer horizon- and channel-wise routing. These results establish retrieval as a useful and underexplored inductive bias for LTSF.

arXiv

Solver-Guided Reasoning for Mixed-Equilibrium Strategies

Han Wang, Philippe Beardsell, Boning Li, Aaron Sasmita, Shuai Li, Hongyuan Zha, Baoxiang Wang

Reasoning in large language models (LLMs) is often grounded in human text, human demonstrations, and human-generated rationales. For equilibrium reasoning in complex games, however, relying on human data can be suboptimal. In fact, human play is often guided by intuition and heuristics and can deviate substantially from game equilibrium. This discrepancy is amplified in games with mixed-strategy equilibria, where human data is heavily biased toward pure strategies. Consequently, conditioning LLMs on this data yields weak game strategies. To grant LLMs the reasoning capacity in games, in this work, we study how to elicit equilibrium play using solver output. We propose Mixed-Strategy Decision Tree (MDT), which articulates the silent optimality of the equilibrium into sparse strategic rules that both humans and LLMs could understand. Using solver output rather than human annotation allows us to extend the input to arbitrarily new states and continuations. We instantiate this study on No-Limit Texas Hold'em by querying a solver oracle for over \textbf{250 million mixed-strategy decisions}; MDT together with other techniques \textbf{reduces the $\ell_1$ distance to the equilibrium by $52.6\%$} across $8$ different LLM configurations. A Route-only ablation tests the incremental contribution of the shadow-based contrast, while complete River-endgame and Liar's Dice experiments evaluate strategic fidelity and portability beyond the original NLH communication setting.

arXiv

Multi-Level Modeling of Large Language Model Inference Latency and Energy via Hybrid Analytical--Machine-Learning Predictors

Saeid Shokoufa, Mohammad Erfan Sadeghi, Mehdi Kamal, Massoud Pedram

The rapid scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly increased computational cost, energy consumption, and inference latency, making accurate estimation essential for sustainable artificial intelligence deployment and hardware-aware design. In this work, we introduce Hybrid Modeling for Energy and Latency of LLMs (HYMELL), a hybrid three-level framework for estimating LLM inference latency and energy by combining analytical modeling with machine learning (ML). HYMELL models LLM execution through a three-level hierarchy: analytical estimation of primitive operations, ML prediction of higher-level components, and an end-to-end model that captures system-level overheads across both prefill and decode phases. The framework supports diverse architectures, including dense and mixture-of-experts (MoE) feed-forward networks (FFNs), as well as multi-head attention (MHA) and grouped-query attention (GQA) mechanisms. Evaluated on an NVIDIA H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), HYMELL achieves high predictive accuracy; notably, for LLaMA 3 8B, it attains less than 5% error for both prefill and decode phases. By predicting execution costs directly from architectural parameters, it enables fast, hardware-free design space exploration and energy-efficient optimization.

arXiv

MolBioKG: Grounding Out-of-Graph Molecules in Biomedical Knowledge Graphs via Multi-Resolution Structural Anchoring

Yiming Zhang, Hikaru Shindo, Shuan Chen, Kaushalya Madhawa, Jun Jin Choong, Yuna Oikawa, Takashi Fujiwara, Keisuke Ozawa

Biomedical knowledge graphs (KGs) accelerate drug discovery, but standard pipelines assume query molecules already exist as graph entities, leaving unregistered molecules disconnected. We address this cold-start challenge, termed the out-of-graph molecule problem, by introducing MolBioKG. This two-layer system grounds unseen molecules in biomedical evidence via multi-resolution structural anchoring. It connects an index of 2.74 million molecules (represented by scaffolds, fragments, functional groups, and fingerprints) to a 9.6-million-edge KG. Given only a SMILES string, MolBioKG retrieves structurally related graph entities and traverses their biomedical neighborhoods without task-specific training. It features two inference mechanisms: static multi-anchor retrieval using Reciprocal Rank Fusion, and Adapt-KG, a tool-using LLM policy for adaptive traversal. Evaluated across in-graph link recovery, complex multi-hop reasoning, and out-of-graph generalization, MolBioKG outperforms strong baselines. Notably, it raises Hits@10 from 0.585 to 0.876 in multi-hop reasoning and out-of-graph target recall from 0.145 to 0.269, all while ensuring predictions retain traceable structural anchors and source-attributed KG evidence.

arXiv

Dueling World Models: Advantage-Style Action Channels for Common-Mode Distractor Rejection

Jiazhuo Li, Yiming Fei, Zhiruo Zhou, Heikichi Hayashi

Latent world models plan by predicting future states from an action, but when a scene contains motion the agent does not control, they quietly go action-blind: predictions for different actions become indistinguishable even as the training loss keeps improving. Existing remedies suppress this distraction with reconstruction, task reward, or auxiliary objectives, each adding machinery or assumptions. We show that a minimal alternative suffices, borrowed from the dueling decomposition of value into a state baseline and an action advantage: in latent dynamics, subtracting a prediction's mean effect over actions cancels whatever the actions share--the action-independent variation where distractors live--leaving a clean, controllable channel, with no reward, no reconstruction, and no distractor-specific auxiliary loss. Because this is only a subtraction at readout time, it applies unchanged to any action-conditioned world model, including frozen pretrained ones. Across a gridworld, synthetic generators with known factors, distracting continuous control, and natural-pixel Atari, the isolated channel recovers the agent's own effect where entangled predictors fail, with nuisance leak indistinguishable from zero; applied post hoc it surfaces an action channel in off-the-shelf models that their raw readouts miss, and it converts into goal-reaching control in the gridworld. We prove the cancellation is exact in finite samples for both discrete and sampled action sets, and we state its measured boundary--distractors whose motion tracks the action--together with the remaining limitations in the appendix.

arXiv

A Transferable Autologistic Model for Predicting Rare Failures in Heterogeneous Equipment

Islam Benamirouche, Djemel Ziou, Feriel Fass

Predicting failures before they occur remains a major challenge in predictive maintenance, particularly when failures are rare, when equipment of the same family differ in sensor configurations, and when the goal is anticipation rather than diagnosis of an already observed fault. This paper proposes a common-to-target probabilistic model that learns shared failure-related patterns across a family of heterogeneous equipment and adapts parsimoniously to target equipment. The model explicitly accounts for sensor heterogeneity, operating context, and degradation dynamics to produce calibrated failureprobability estimates suitable for maintenance planning. Its performance is evaluated on a synthetic refrigerator dataset comprising 27 simulated refrigerators with varying sensor configurations, operating conditions, and failure types, providing a controlle

arXiv

Optimal Neural Network Approximation via Empirical Least Squares with Deterministic Samples

Xinliang Liu, Tong Mao, Jinchao Xu

We develop a rigorous theory of discrete residual least-squares approximation for elliptic spectral equations $\mathfrak L_βu=f$ using linearized ReLU$^k$ neural networks on the sphere, where $\mathfrak L_β$ is a positive elliptic spectral multiplier of order $β$. Given a parameter set $Θ_n=\{θ_{j}^*\}_{j=1}^n\subset\mathbb S^d$, we approximate $u$ in the linearized network space $L_n^k(Θ_n)$ by the discrete residual on the collocation points $\{η_i^*\}_{i=1}^m$ \begin{equation*} u_{n,m}\in\arg\min_{v_n\in L_n^k(Θ_n)}\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m\left(f(η_i^*)-\mathfrak L_βv_n(η_i^*)\right)^2. \end{equation*} With $k>\frac{d-1}{2}+β$, for antipodally quasi-uniform network parameter sets and any quasi-uniform collocation points with $m\gtrsim n$, we prove that \begin{equation*} \|u-u_{n,m}\|_{\mathcal H^β(\mathbb S^d)}\eqsim\|f-\mathfrak L_βu_{n,m}\|_{\mathcal L^2(\mathbb S^d)}\lesssim n^{-\frac{r}{d}} \begin{cases} \|f\|_{\mathcal W^{r,p}(\mathbb S^d)},&\frac{d}{p}<r\leq \frac{d}{2},~p>2,\\ \|f\|_{\mathcal H^r(\mathbb S^d)},&r>\frac{d}{2}. \end{cases} \end{equation*} We also establish a high-probability residual estimate, up to a logarithmic factor and an arbitrarily small smoothness loss, for i.i.d.\ uniformly distributed collocation points. The key analytical ingredient is a Bernstein inequality for linearized ReLU$^k$ network spaces. If $\underline h$ denotes the antipodal separation distance of the network parameters, then \begin{equation*} \|v_n\|_{\mathcal H^r(\mathbb S^d)}\lesssim\underline h^{-(r-s)}\|v_n\|_{\mathcal H^s(\mathbb S^d)},\qquad 0\leq s<r<k+\tfrac12. \end{equation*}

arXiv

EpiFlow: A framework for improving the utility of wastewater signals for disease forecasting

Aniruddha Adiga, Jingyuan Chou, Gursharn Kaur, Andrew Warren, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Baltazar Espinoza, Bryan Lewis, Justin Crow, Alexandra Lorentz, Rekha Singh, Madhav Marathe

Wastewater-based surveillance is an effective tool for disease monitoring and can provide early warning of outbreaks. Although wastewater viral loads (WVL) correlate with disease burden, their utility for improving real-time forecasting remains under investigation. During the early phases of an epidemic, many indicators can effectively monitor disease spread, but their reliability may decline because of reporting fatigue and low prevalence. Hospital burden can vary substantially even during low-prevalence periods, making accurate forecasting of burden indicators essential for minimizing disease impacts. In this paper, we present principled approaches for processing wastewater data, characterizing its relationship with burden indicators, and generating real-time forecasts. We assess the predictability of WVL using entropy measures. We analyze the relationship between WVL and burden indicators using causality tests that capture temporal dynamics and the leading-indicator behavior of WVL. We incorporate these insights into a time-varying forecasting model that accounts for the evolving relationship between the signals. We also evaluate the effects of delays in WVL reporting through simulations. We test the utility of our methods by forecasting COVID-19 hospital admissions across Virginia and its health regions during periods of varying disease prevalence. Incorporating WVL improves forecast accuracy relative to baseline models, particularly during critical epidemic phases, and results in a 20 percentage point improvement in forecast coverage. Our results demonstrate that WVL signals can improve infectious disease forecasting even under conditions of low prevalence or delayed reporting.

arXiv

Dirichlet Follow-the-Leader Closes the Gap in Simultaneous Multiclass U-Calibration

Pahan Dewasurendra

Can one forecaster attain the optimal regret rate for every bounded proper loss and also adapt to every smooth proper loss? Recent work answered this up to a dimension gap. Its self-concordant perturbation gives roughly $K^{5/4}\sqrt{T}$ worst-case regret and incurs an additional $β\sqrt{K}\log K$ for $β$-smooth losses. We close both gaps with a one-line forecaster. After observing class counts $c_{t-1}$, draw the next prediction from $\operatorname{Dir}(c_{t-1})$, on the face of classes seen so far. This is a fresh Bayesian bootstrap of the outcomes. The analysis rests on an exact identity: averaging any bounded proper loss under $\operatorname{Dir}(α)$ equals a discrete derivative of its Dirichlet-averaged Bayes risk. The identity makes the be-the-perturbed-leader term telescope to a nonpositive Jensen gap. A one-count likelihood ratio then bounds stability by the inverse square root of that class's count. The resulting single, horizon-free algorithm satisfies $\sup_{\ell}\mathbb{E}\operatorname{Reg}_{\ell}\leq 4\sqrt{S_T T}\leq 4\sqrt{K T}$ and $\mathbb{E}\operatorname{Reg}_{\ell}\leq \frac{5}{2}β(1+\log T)$ for every $β$-smooth proper loss. Here $S_T$ is the number of observed classes. Known lower bounds show that both rates are optimal in their nontrivial regimes. The proof covers nondifferentiable losses and changes of the active simplex face.

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